"It’s worth emphasising that, among Australia’s risks in Pillar One, Britain’s involvement is not the highest...there can be little doubt that Britain will build an SSN class to replace the Astutes, regardless of AUKUS." www.aspistrategist.org.au/demonstratin...

Some thoughts on #Japan’s recent and remarkable general election and #Takaichi Sanae’s extraordinary victory. engelsbergideas.com/notebook/jap...

The United States under Trump has become a predatory hegemon. It is a strategy that contains the seeds of its own destruction. I explain why in this forthcoming essay of mine in FOREIGN AFFAIRS (no paywall but you do have to register). www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...

Are we entering a new world of spheres of influence? ✍️ Gabriel Elefteriu, Euan Graham, @ameliahadfield1.bsky.social, Beatrice Heuser, @joshuachuminski.bsky.social, @wdjames.bsky.social, @lanoszka.bsky.social, Timothy Less, Jennifer Parker, @james-rogers.bsky.social, Julien Lalanne de Saint-Quentin

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul at the IISS Raffles Lecture in Singapore today: "The law of the strongest seems to be increasingly replacing the strength of the law."

Spoke with Steve Lai on the BBC earlier about the domestic politics surrounding Keir Starmer's trip to China, and the question of whether it connects to broader transatlantic tensions with Donald Trump. 1/2

What a week to be teaching this:

Good morning all. And here’s your regular reminder that the Praetorian Guard killed a lot of emperors.

Excellent article in the Critic by @patporter76.bsky.social. I made a similar argument at an RSIS conference in Singapore last week - the underlying logic seems to be "spheres for me, but not for thee". If so, suggests more continuity than change in US foreign policy. thecritic.co.uk/the-fear-of-...

From Pericles to Davos | @armanddangour.bsky.social engelsbergideas.com/notebook/fro...

C'était un grand plaisir d'échanger avec Martin Bot de @mariannelemag.bsky.social la semaine dernière sur la crise transatlantique et la réponse de Keir Starmer.

UK to make fresh push to join EU defence fund ft.trib.al/DCofR1f

"'We are discussing how to protect Europe with a nuclear deterrent with or without the United States,' one of the European officials said. Another described the discussions among European leaders about ways to guard against a nuclear-armed Russia without the U.S. as 'intense and productive.'"

For reasons unknown, my first book, British Grand Strategy in the Age of American Hegemony, is on sale for £28.99 on Amazon UK - a 62% reduction in price! It would be rude not to at that discount! H/T to @jfb1066.bsky.social www.amazon.co.uk/British-Gran...

Latest post tries to catch up with the back and forth on Greenland. I argue that rather this being a rupture (as Mark Carney suggested) the European response shows a transition to a rebalanced transatlantic relationship with diminished US power. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

Denmark has been a stalwart ally to America. Forty-four Danish troops were killed in Afghanistan, the highest per capita death toll among coalition forces.

The dog is all of us. www.ft.com/content/73c8...

It’s come to this: “Catholic members of the US armed forces could in good conscience consider disobeying orders to attack Greenland if such orders were issued, according to Archbishop Timothy Broglio, the bishop responsible for the pastoral care of US military personnel.”

Thatcher wrote in her memoirs: “I was to have many disputes with President Mitterrand in later years. But I never forgot the debt we owed him for his personal support throughout the Falklands crisis.” Defence Secretary John Nott: “In so many ways Mitterrand and the French were our greatest allies”.

Spoke with the Beeb earlier today about Trump's coercive diplomacy over Greenland, its implications for NATO, and diverging European responses. Thanks to Vandhna Bhan for going easy on me in my first live media interview. Clips below.

I feel for future historians trying to make sense of the ‘Greenland crisis’.

If you're interested in UK foreign policy in relation to the Middle East, check out this @h-diplo.bsky.social roundtable on Nigel Ashton's excellent book, False Prophets: British Leaders' Fateful Fascination with the Middle East from Suez to Syria - with an intro by yours truly. hdiplo.org/to/RT27-6

I am greatly encouraged that Lars Lokke Rasmussen - Denmark's foreign minister - looks like the sort of chap who could avert a schism in the international order.

The audacious raid in Venezuela reveals how technological advances are expanding the United States' geopolitical options. America’s techno-imperial moment | Christian Ruth engelsbergideas.com/notebook/ame...

😂👏 Not quite "My centre is giving way, my right is retreating, situation excellent, I am attacking!" is it?!

@blagdendavid.bsky.social and I in the New Statesman on Britain's predicament over Greenland and beyond. Muddling through to finesse Trump's instincts & save the status quo will not work. Its hard, but time to pick a poison. www.newstatesman.com/internationa...

🎧The EI Podcast: The Monroe Doctrine explained @jackfdickens.bsky.social is joined by Charlie Laderman to discuss how the United States’ hemispheric ambitions emerged from great-power competition. audioboom.com/posts/883473...

I spoke about Trump’s bid for Greenland and its implications for European security on the @usp-rsis.bsky.social podcast this week. With events moving at a dizzying pace, I tried to add some historical perspective. Thanks to Collin Koh & Kevin Chen for the invitation. open.spotify.com/episode/0rtE...

John Bew on form: "It cannot be healthy that more energy is spent in European capitals assessing the legality of Maduro’s toppling than on a post-mortem on the failure to mobilise frozen Russian assets in support of Ukraine at the most critical point in the war". www.newstatesman.com/internationa...

I spoke with @channelnewsasia.bsky.social yesterday about the prospect of 🇺🇸 trying to acquire Greenland by force. FWIW, I think it’s unlikely given the fallout (also at odds with mood music on Ukraine), but such coercive diplomacy is still undermining trust at a critical time. tinyurl.com/3snyuawh

This is a strong, well-crafted statement. Still, it’s incredibly disheartening that we’ve reached the point where this needs to be said.

An admirable commitment, but strategy must align objectives and resources. With defence spending at 2.5% and the British Army's modernisation plans in crisis, this is strategically illiterate. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Not a credible position for the Labour leadership to take. If they were serious about the threat we face, after 18mths we'd have ramped up our capabilities, have factories and stockpiles in place, people would have been fired and talent brought in to shake up UK defence. Instead, we've tinkered.

Logical consequence: 75% of Germans think the country should thus seek a nuclear umbrella from France and the United Kingdom.

📢 RSIS/NTU Singapore is hiring tenure-track positions in Strategic Studies (particularly keen on candidates working at the intersection of tech & strategy), Asian Studies, IR, and IPE. Deadline: 31 Jan 2026. Please RT & share with anyone on the market! ntu.wd3.myworkdayjobs.com/Careers/job/...

Out next week in the US (sadly not until March in Uk). Lots of essays from a bit of autobiography to pieces on people (Michael Howard, Mandela, Putin), praising tactics, zugzwang v stalemate, retrospects on Iraq war, and even the strategy of Barbie. global.oup.com/academic/pro...

‘Autistic men in suits talking loudly and self-importantly at each other in jargon that nobody understands’ A decent summation of the defence pundit class, who delight in arcane language. As such, I've written a guide to the most annoying phrases out there. Let me know what I missed!

'There are times when common interests trump narrower considerations; this is one of them'. Me on the Brexit negotiations and why the collapse of SAFE talks was unfortunate www.ft.com/content/0e5e...

Applications now invited for the Society's new Applied History Fellowships with @ihr.bsky.social and DC Thomson: bit.ly/4ijiuII Fellowships support recent post-doc historians and demonstrate the appeal of historical skills for employers. £12,000 for 6 months. Closing date: 31 Jan 2026 #Skystorians

27 years ago to the day, 4 December 1998, France and the UK signed the St Malo Declaration. Its aims are as noble today as they were back in the relative calm of the late 90s. What have we done to truly strengthen European defence since 1998? www.cvce.eu/content/publ...

If you are a historian with policy-facing interests who has recently submitted their PhD (or will do so imminently), this fantastic new London-based postdoc fellowship in Applied History could be for you. www.history.ac.uk/fellowships/...

Many thanks to Will James for hosting me at RSIS (Nanyang Technological University) in Singapore to give a talk on U.S. Spacepower and alliance politics from the Cold War to today.

The First Real Peace Settlement after the First World War. Why we can still learn a lot from the Locarno Pact - after 100 years. My latest essay for Engelsberg Ideas: engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-l...

I've written a piece for @engelsbergideas.bsky.social on the sources of grand strategic ideas. Best enjoyed over the weekend with a brew ☕ Thanks to @jackfdickens.bsky.social, @paullay.bsky.social, and the EI team for publishing.

Should the UK and Japan have a new formal defence alliance? On this question, I agree with @wdjames.bsky.social that "rather than engaging in lengthy treaty negotiations, Britain and Japan should focus on tangible outcomes, such as delivering GCAP on time." www.britainsworld.org.uk/p/the-big-as...

Do 🇬🇧 & 🇯🇵 need a formal defence alliance? My view: They’re already building an entente - providing a degree of reassurance & deterrence. Better to focus on delivering GCAP than spend political capital on a time-consuming treaty. Thanks @congeostrategy.bsky.social for inviting me to pitch in #BigAsk

"Strengthening European nuclear and conventional capabilities, through more Franco-British cooperation among other things, is not simply a desirable option. It is becoming an unavoidable necessity." warontherocks.com/2025/09/can-...

#AUKUS survives Pentagon review | 'The Trump admin will proceed with the #AUKUS defense pact linking the 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 & 🇦🇺, maintaining the original timeline that includes the sale of 3 Virginia-class subs to Canberra beginning in 2032' asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/tr...

How seapower shaped the Hundred Years War | Jonathan Sumption engelsbergideas.com/essays/how-s...