I am fascinated by how viruses evolve - and not just since #SARSCoV2 has shown us at the global stage how consequential virus evolution can be for us. In my new story in @science.org I got to explore how researchers are probing deeper into the past with old RNA virus genome. So a 🧪 thread…

💻Join online! 🎧 Süßmilch Lecture at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) Putting Science Before #Statistics 🗣️Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ MPI-EVA Leipzig 📅Oct 21, 2025 🕒3 pm CEST ✏️Sign up now: https://ow.ly/uxfc50Xb5Yx

Is a healthy microbiome one that is rich in phages? 🦠 Excited to share our paper out in Lancet Microbe with @bkoskella.bsky.social & @dholtappels.bsky.social where we test whether virome diversity can be used a broad signature of microbiome health 📈

What could possibly go wrong? #IDSky

I'm looking for a doctoral student with Bayesian background to work on Bayesian workflow and cross-validation (see my publication list users.aalto.fi/~ave/publica... for my recent work) at Aalto University. Apply through the ELLIS PhD program (dl October 31) ellis.eu/news/ellis-p...

Fantastic discussion of the BALANCE trial -- and randomized trial preparation / design in general. Also, great to hear Communicable and Breakpoints teaming up! #IDSky

"It turns out boredom is the Cadillac of feelings."

The new ggplot2 4.0.0 now supports absolute plot dimensions 🤩 #rstats #dataviz #phd

Happy International Microorganism Day! 🎉 Today, we are celebrating the tiny powerhouses that have a massive impact on our world. From the bacteria in our gut to the fungi that give us antibiotics, these incredible organisms are essential to life. Let's make some noise for the microscopic!

Typhus, a disease once nearly eradicated in the U.S., is on the rise in Texas "76-year-old Clark contracted #typhus from clearing weeds from her garden" 🦠 flip.it/Zzrht7

#Newresearch This Bayesian statistical method uses timeseries microbiome data to infer interaction modules and is tested using a faecal transplant experiment in mice. #MicroSky www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Remembering David Rose today. www.bbc.com/news/article...

This week's rapid communications describe ➡️A strain of Neisseria gonorrhoeae producing false negative results on Xpert CT/NG assay in England 🔎An atypical sixfold rise in #influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 cases in Denmark during summer Full issue here 👉 bit.ly/eus2036 #EpiSky #IDSky #MedSky #STISky 🛟🦠🧫⚕️

Attention early-career scientists! Apply for ASM’s Young Ambassador Program to gain leadership experience, build your network and inspire the next generation of microbiologists. Applications are due Nov. 1. asm.social/2Ah

Simon Wood, the GOAT of generalized additive models & creator of the mgcv #rstats package, has an Annual Review of Statistics essay on GAMs, available open access #statssky #mlsky www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...

More on the outbreak of Neisseria meningitidis conjunctivitis among military trainees, from the MMWR… #IDSky www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes...

Interesting that an unencapsulated meningococcal strain was responsible. Outbreaks of pneumococcal conjunctivitis have also involved unencapsulated strains (Baumgartner. N Engl J Med, 2003; Crum. Clin Infect Dis, 2004).

As national medical, scientific, public health and patient organizations, we call for the resignation of HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to ensure the health of the American people. Our statement: https://bit.ly/45LeJHi

The Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics (CIDD) at Penn State is hiring for a senior-level position in Infectious Disease Modeling. Come join our dynamic group of disease researchers! Feel free to message me for details psu.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/PSU_Ac...

In my dept today we discussed deriving estimators from causal models. This can be opaque, but as a simple e.g. instrumental variable Z for estimating X on Y. Z –a–> X –b–> Y, and X <– U –> Y, where U is unmeasured, a and b are path coefs. We want to know b. U prevents direct approach. >>

I had a blast at #useR2025. Here are my slides on `tinyplot`. grantmcdermott.com/tinyplot/vig... (Rendering of the title slide is a bit off on mobile. I'll fix when when I get sec.)

Two major points on influenza-associated acute necrotizing encephalopathy - High mortality (27%) - Most affected children were unvaccinated & did not have major comorbid conditions #PedSky #IDSky

Across 42 countries, the proportion of CD4<200 at ART initiation (among those with measurement) still >= 30%. So much to do still to diagnose and intervene early, made more difficult in limited funding climate… #IDSky

A major KI initiative to recruit new assistant professors with outstanding proposals in all areas of medicine, biomedicine and public health. We offer an amazing research environment, great colleagues and generous startup packages. Check it out and get working on your applications! (repost please!)

Brilliant piece of work from Markus Arnoldini and Jonas Cremer into how much your gut bacteria really do for you! www.cell.com/cell/fulltex...

A brilliant article by @rmcelreath.bsky.social . I had not heard of ‘bread scientists’ before but see them everywhere. Related to the strong case for teaching reliable, rigorous methods, I see as a major problem the selection of “optimistic” stat methods. #StatsSky #EpiSky

New online! Viromics approaches for the study of viral diversity and ecology in microbiomes

@rmcelreath.bsky.social with a radical proposal for science: "Research should be intelligible. Access is not sufficient."

#idboardreview 50 M recently returned after visiting family in Cost Rica x2wks, stayed in urban area, on return F, HA, retrobulbar pain, petechial rash on arm/trunk, leukopenia, normal diff, plt 120. CXR normal. vector? #medEd #idmedEd #idsky #idfellows #idfellowship

BEAST X for Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic inference www.nature.com/articles/s41...

apparently the trick to long life is to eat fewer than 365 hot dogs per year

"The assumption of perfect smoothness is demonstrably flawed, just as the assumption of an abrupt change is flawed; the reality likely lies somewhere between these extremes." Useful discussion on challenges of reconstructing infection peak from delayed outcomes: academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advan...

Fun with version control...

Postdoc (Paris, France) Modelling the spread of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria over healthcare networks with Laura Temime at @mesurs-cnam More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2323

Good Science xkcd.com/3101/

RFK Jr taps Dr. Leo Spaceman to replace vaccine advisory panel #idsky #episky #microsky

I'm on a podcast! I had a blast talking with @lucystats.bsky.social and @epiellie.bsky.social on @casualinfer.bsky.social! We cover all sorts of fun things: {marginaleffects}, defining estimands, fixed vs. random effects, & how to teach all this stats stuff in accessible ways #databs #EpiSky #rstats

A case-cluster of aseptic meningitis associated with a newly identified recombinant echovirus6/CoxsackievirusB1 enterovirus ✅ Just Accepted #IDSky

Increasing politicization of science is a terrible idea, and threatens to destroy the scientific leadership role of the USA in the world. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

To be clear, these kinds of breakthroughs are going to come to a screeching halt with the current NIH funding cuts. This new treatment is only possible because of decades of basic research. What might be possible 20 years from now if we don't destroy basic research? www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Everything right now

In 2019, 1.5 million carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative infections occurred across 8 LMICs, 103,000 effective treatments were procured, about 1.39 million infections went untreated, & more. #IDsky #MEDsky Insights from author Dr. Jennifer Cohn from GARDP: www.contagionlive.com/view/over-1-...

If you want a sense of the bloodbath happening at NIH, @gregggonsalves.bsky.social has just published a primer, and it’s devastating. www.thenation.com/article/poli...

The emperor has no clothes.

Jeanne Marrazzo is a brilliant scientist and a true leader in #IDSky. Her leadership at NIAID is grounded in science, collaboration, and public health impact To see her placed on admin leave during today’s bloodletting across HHS is devastating

Modern science wouldn’t exist without the online research repository known as arXiv. Three decades in, its creator still can’t let it go.

Love to see it @altmetric.com 👏 Migration to BlueSky definitely holding for academics wanting to share research, etc. #IDSky (Infectious Diseases) holding strong, too. Initial migration influx, but still steady! Data thanks to @kenkoonwong.bsky.social 📈

So many AFB 😳

Rubio terminated 5800 USAID contracts – more than 90% of its foreign aid programs – in defiance of the courts. Here’s a list of just some of the lifesaving awards that were terminated. Nearly all were Congressionally mandated. They’ve saved millions of lives. 🧵