We are entering the next stage of the strategic breal-up between Europe and the US:

This is an extremely important new paper by @armida.bsky.social 🚨 Defense can not be an elite project! Creating broad and deep public support is essential… not just to justify spending but also to create a better pool for military personnel and a convincing reason for compulsory military service.

Thrilled to share my first-ever @dgap.org publication co-authored with Patrick Keller and @emilarchambault.bsky.social🎉 The key takeaway: US security guarantees should be a bonus for Europe, not its foundation. This is at the heart of why Europe must take more responsibility for its own defense

Europeans spend the last days pretending that their deployment to Greenland was not against the US. Trump, as always, is sensing a weakness and will force them to come clean. I understand the diplomatic hesitation, but time for Europeans to make clear, unequivocal stance.

Who’s going to defend Greenland (assuming it wants to be defended)? Does the mutual solidarity clause apply to Greenland (and who decides about it)? verfassungsblog.de/greenland-an...

Official confirmation of German participation in European troop deployment to Greenland. First Bundeswehr soldiers to arrive tomorrow. 🇪🇺 / NATO solidarity in action.

Ich glaube aber, dass sich vor einer militärischen Eskalation, einer Intervention mit militärischen Mitteln, noch ganz viele andere Möglichkeiten ergeben", sagt @beckermax.bsky.social im "im Loop"-Podcast zu den 🇺🇸 Plänen bezüglich #Grönland. Von einem Deal bis zu einer Beeinflussung ... /1

The calls from America this weekend to "abolish the EU" are for one simple reason: the EU is the only thing that can keep European nation-states from becoming Russian or American vassals.

FCAS started out as a project to bring France and Germany together, but quickly turned into the opposite. This week, I tried to explain in *two* articles what is going on. For ECFR: 👇 For WPR: www.worldpoliticsreview.com/fcas-europe-...

The "firewall" in the EU Parliament effectively no longer exists. Just this week we had several uses of the centre-right to far-right majority again. In our new op-ed for @zeit.de, Sophia Russack and I analyze this "Venezuela majority" and why the EP is becoming increasingly unpredictable:

This statement highlights part of the problem of the EU's position on Ukraine and the 'Trump peace plan' - as first important achievement it stresses the efficient coordination amongst Europeans, and the resultiing unity. But intra-European coordination and unity are not an end to themselves.

Neither a Russia nor a Ukraine expert (and at home with a sick kid) but everything I am reading about the Ukraine 'peace' plan reads as much as a capitulation for Ukraine as a capitulation for Europe. Grim, but also a last chance for Europeans to show their ability to say no to Trump.

Puts one of the fears of additional European defence spending into focus: Instead of spending in a more coordinated way, the additional funds incentivise industry towards more defence inflation and more protection of their national fiefdoms.

From the creeping integration of the far-right into the EPP seeking majorities on central EU policies with the far-right. bsky.app/profile/nvon...

Over the summer, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wrote about the 'creeping integration of the far-right' into EU decision-making. Now it looks increasingly likely that this week a major part of the Omnibus package will be passed by an EPP-far-right majority.

Der Aufstieg der Rechtsaußen-Parteien war die auffälligste Geschichte der #Europawahl 2024 – aber nicht die einzige. In einem Sammelband von MICHAEL KAEDING, MANUEL MÜLLER und ALEX HOPPE analysieren 67 Autor:innen in 38 Kapiteln die vielen Facetten der Wahl. Jetzt auch auf Deutsch erhältlich:

By now a regular feature of policy-making in the European Parliament - the centre-right EPP at least threatening or actually voting with the far-right, which offers alternative majorities. This significantly moves EU policy to the right, and risks the pro-European majority of the centre.

Schrumpfen statt wachsen? Eine neue französische Regierung steht, und zwei Parteien aus der bisherigen Minderheitsregierung drohen auszusteigen, LR und UDI. Die Opposition kocht. Was ist passiert? Kurzfassung und Erklärungen im 🧵

In my substack EU-Analytics, I now do monthly reviews of EU voting in the EP and the Council. September 2025 edition is here, with a closer look at voting on Ukraine, overall EP changes - with another centre-right to far-right majority - and a surprise German vote in the Council:

Important analysis of the creeping shift to the right. Decisive factor will be Christian Democratic #EPP, writes @nvondarza.bsky.social Most important, EPP under Manfred Weber (CSU) has got the choice. His coalitions with the far-right are not a must. EPP could easily form majorities without them.

The creeping integration of far right parties in 🇪🇺 within the last couple of years and the crucial role of the @eppgroup.bsky.social Give it a read 👇

Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation": fiia.fi/en/publicati... Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe". I wish I'd been more wrong.

Before last week, NATO's art. 4 had been activated seven times. Now it has been activated twice in less than ten days, by Poland over the drone incursions and Estonia over the air space by violation by Russian fighter jets.

Der Einfluss von Rechtsaußenparteien in der EU wächst. Ob sich die Union weiterhin auf ein proeuropäisches Lager stützen kann, hängt v.a. von der EVP ab, schreiben @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social und @nvondarza.bsky.social @swp-europe.bsky.social. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Die schleichende Integration von Rechtsaußenparteien in Europa: Nach den Europawahlen 2024 stellen sie 26 % der Abgeordneten im EP – und sind in 1/3 der Mitgliedstaaten an Regierungen beteiligt. Das neue @swp-berlin.org Aktuell von @nvondarza.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social und mir 👇

just going to leave this here from jon stewart accepting the mark twain prize in 2022:

Reminder that Putin has never said he wants a trilateral meeting, had never said he would respect Ukrainian sovereignty, and has never said he wants to end the war. Not to be a downer, but the discussion of security guarantees is premature.

New #EU Security and Defence Partnerships with 🇨🇦 , 🇳🇴 & 🇬🇧 – same framework, different depth. @johannaflach.bsky.social & @nvondarza.bsky.social compare scope, ambitions & political signalling. And what these new agreements reveal about Europe's evolving security architecture. Give it a read 👇

Happy to see my first ever contribution to a book chapter published! If you’re interested in the fluidity of #EP Political Groups - give it a read 😌 Thanks to @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu, Michael Kaeding, @alexhoppe.bsky.social and @nvondarza.bsky.social

Elections have consequences - and with the far-right groups now about 25% of elected representatives int he European Parliament, they are bound to take a more influential role in EU law-making:

Very important read by @timbale.bsky.social on the increasing use of the term “hard right” and why we shouldn’t be using it - and certainly not because we anticipate criticism from far right actors who do not want to be labelled as what they are

The motion of censure against von der Leyen isn’t about whether her Commission survives - it will -, but what Europe she’ll lead. This motion goes to the heart of what the European Parliament has always been about: to hold the EU Commission democratically accountable. A thread 🧵

"the American realignment with Russia and against Ukraine and Europe is gathering pace—not merely in rhetoric but in reality" www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

Meine Analyse heute morgen bei @Tagesschau zu #EU, #Sicherheitspolitik, #Trump, #G7, #Israel, #Iran www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/v...

Der linke Flügel der SPD hat die Zeitenwende stets nur zähneknirschend mitgetragen, denn die Stärkung der konventionellen militärischen Abschreckung fordert den parteiinternen Heiligenschein von Ost- und Entspannungspolitik heraus. Je länger der Krieg andauert und umso höher die NATO-Ziele steigen,

Russland begeht Kriegsverbrechen als Routine und schießt ständig Raketen auf Zivilisten. Und immer noch fabulieren manche von „berechtigten Sicherheitsinteressen“. #SPD #Russland www.stern.de/politik/deut...

Man könnte vieles über das #Manifest der (hoffentlich) alten #SPD sagen aber, dass es die dutzendfach widerlegte Falschbehauptung wiederholt Europa seie Russland militärisch überlegen um daraus den Schluss einer „Abrüstungspolitik“ und „Politik der gemeinsamen Sicherheit“ zu ziehen ist verstörend

"Every time we go to the polls, politicians will say that every election matters and every vote counts. They will be right" www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...

Allein dass Weimer die rechtspopulistische Cancel-Legende der "verbannten" Venus-Skulptur als Beleg eines angeblich links-feministischen Kulturkampfes zeigt, dass ihm die Kompetenz für das Amt des Kulturstaatsministers fehlt. Der Reihe nach 🧵

Wie stark kann Nawrocki Polens EU-Kurs tatsächlich beeinflussen? @nvondarza.bsky.social‬ zeigt: Auch ohne direkte Brüssel-Rolle kann der Präsident Reformprojekte blockieren – mit Wirkung bis nach Berlin.

Ich habe mit @tabouchadi.bsky.social für @volksverpetzer.de über den Forschungsstand zum Ausgrenzen rechtsextremer Parteien, ihrer Normalisierung in Politik und Medien und darüber gesprochen, was sich ändern muss, um die weitere Unterwanderung unserer Demokratie zu verhindern.

The whole of Europe looked to Berlin today in the hope that Germany would reassert itself as an anchor of stability and a pro-European powerhouse. That hope has been dashed. With consequences way beyond our borders.

@annegretbendiek.bsky.social, Ronja Kempin and I have written down, that the current securitisation of the external action of 🇪🇺 and new financing instruments must not obscure the need for structural changes to the #CFSP and #CSDP🧵

#Trump hat durch die Annäherung an #Russland ohne Not das internationale Umfeld des Krieges und das Gleichgewicht zwischen den Parteien radikal verändert. Für #Putin rückt so der erträumte Diktatfrieden näher. Meine neue Analyse zum Thema Verhandlungen: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Interesting addition: SPD wants to enshrine in the coalition agreement a clause rejecting any cooperation with the far-right (ECR, PfE, ESN) in the European Parliament. Looks like a nod to Manfred Weber to me.

Good phone calls with defence ministers of 🇬🇧 and 🇨🇦. Told them our €150bn loans programme SAFE is open to EU & non-EU collaboration. It invites friends to build deeper defence industry partnerships of mutual benefit with us.

Der Bundesrat will, dass die Polizei bundesweit Palantir als Software einsetzt. Das Unternehmen gehört dem rechten Milliardär und Strippenzieher Peter Thiel. Diesem Feind der Demokratie Geld und Daten in den Rachen zu werfen, ist unverantwortlich. Ein Kommentar. netzpolitik.org/2025/palanti...

‘Good intentions, as recently declared by Kaja Kallas & David Lammy, are not enough… it is time for both the EU and the UK to step up’ 🇬🇧🇪🇺 A special UK-EU security relationship is now vital write @beckermax.bsky.social @nvondarza.bsky.social & Johanna Flach👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/resetting-uk...