My @fiia.fi colleague and Middle East expert Timo R. Stewart (@timostewart.bsky.social) has just been awarded the "Scientist of the Year" award of the Finnish Union of Research Professionals. Congrats, Timo, well deserved!

"Few voters who prioritize bigotry want the diet version." I think this wording epitomises the issue better than the similar, but more vague "voters prefer the original to the copy". Because it *is* bigotry we're talking about - and the far right will always beat democratic parties in that game.

We must really disabuse ourselves of the idea that the Dutch election has been some sort of a turning point back towards pro-European democratic centrism. Yes, it's good that the next government is likely to be more centrist than the last one. But the far-right dangers have certainly not gone away.

On the “defeat” of the far right in the Netherlands 🇳🇱 The total number of far-right seats in the Tweede Kamer: 2021: 28 2023: 41 2025: 42 👈 And I don’t even count BBB here, which has radicalized significantly in the last year.

This is important. I think there is a tendency to overestimate the likelihood that the US won't have any elections in the future at all, and to underestimate the likelihood that these elections won't be free and fair.

There are those days when I open Bluesky and I immediately see that something dramatic must have happened on the other side of the Atlantic, but I have absolutely no idea what it is.

Wochenendlektüre ist angekommen! #Europawahlsammelband #EP2024

No, FT, the story of the Dutch elections is not “Netherlands swings to centre”, but the fragmentation of political landscape, incl among the far-right. So Wilders’ PVV no longer clearly the largest, but combined seat tally of the far-right remains stable (+1). giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Impressive visualisation!

Vom 21. Jahrhundert ist das erste Viertel fast vorbei, und in Deutschland kann man es mit der Verwendung des generischen Femininums immer noch in die Tagesschau schaffen.

Finnish migration policy is having a bit of a FAFO moment.

Happy #UnitedNationsDay! 🇺🇳

Beim Versuch, nach rechts abgewanderte Wähler zurückzugewinnen, riskiert der Kanzler durch seine Rhetorik die Entfremdung von Millionen Deutschen mit Migrationsgeschichte- auch meine. Mein Gastbeitrag als Angesprochener für @spiegel.de www.spiegel.de/politik/ciha...

The EU has begun talks on its long-term budget at a geopolitically critical moment. In the latest FIIA Briefing Paper, @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu examines key disputes shaping the complex and likely slow negotiations. Read here ⤵️ fiia.fi/en/publication/the-european-unions-next-long-term-budget

Das #EUbudget macht nur einen Bruchteil der gesamten Staatsausgaben in Europa aus, doch es wird weit mehr darüber gestritten als über die meisten nationalen Haushalte. Ein neues FIIA Briefing Paper von MANUEL MÜLLER beleuchtet die wichtigsten Konfliktthemen in den anstehenden #MFF- Verhandlungen.

The #EUbudget accounts for only a fraction of total government spending in Europe, yet it is far more controversial than most national budgets. A new FIIA Briefing Paper by MANUEL MÜLLER analyses the key issues at stake in the upcoming #MFF negotiations.

My latest @fiia.fi Briefing Paper is out! It's about the timeline and procedure for the upcoming #MultiannualFinancialFramework negotiations, the four main areas of disagreement, and the impossibility of achieving a coherent and ambitious #EUbudget with more than two dozen veto players.

Hallo @tagesspiegel.de (mit dpa und Reuters), sollte die Schlagzeile hier nicht eher lauten: "Trump brabbelt irgendetwas über die Ukraine daher"? Der Aussagewert dieser Sätze ist doch nahezu Null.

This approach might make sense in order to speed up enlargement – but it is not sustainable in the large run. The EU must be a community of equals, not of first- and second-class member states. So if this happens, we'd need a fix date by which all other MS will relinquish their veto rights, too.

Der Aufstieg der Rechtsaußen-Parteien war die auffälligste Geschichte der #Europawahl 2024 – aber nicht die einzige. In einem Sammelband von MICHAEL KAEDING, MANUEL MÜLLER und ALEX HOPPE analysieren 67 Autor:innen in 38 Kapiteln die vielen Facetten der Wahl. Jetzt auch auf Deutsch erhältlich:

Frisch erschienen: Den Sammelband zur #Europawahl 2024, den ich zusammen mit Michael Kaeding und Alex Hoppe (@alexhoppe.bsky.social) herausgegeben habe, gibt es jetzt endlich auch in deutscher Fassung. 67 Expert:innen beleuchten in 38 Kapiteln eine Vielzahl von Aspekten der Wahl. #EP2024

Some good news from #Cyprus:

"Never again will the immense power of the state be weaponized to persecute political opponents." Donald Trump, Inaugural Address, 20 January 2025.

Exklusiv: Deutsche Leitmedien berichten weit häufiger über Gewalttaten von Ausländern, als es ihrem Anteil in der Kriminalstatistik entspricht. Das zeigt die neue Studie des Journalismusprof. Hestermann. Die Überrepräsentation ist stärker denn je zuvor: mediendienst-integration.de/artikel/ausl...

It is so impressive what human intellect and ingenuity can achieve, and so sad how often it is used for destructive goals instead.

At @foederalist.eu, I have a tradition of publishing a way-too-early piece about potential next EP lead candidates shortly after the mid-term reshuffle (www.foederalist.eu/2017/02/spit..., www.foederalist.eu/2022/02/euro...). But this time, it seems I'll be a latecomer to the speculation party.

Finland, a country with a 10% unemployment rate, has now decided that being unemployed shows that you aren't "successfully integrated" and therefore don't deserve citizenship.

Still in 1942, when the German Nazis banned Jews from using trams, they didn't just do so directly, but invented a reason, namely "Jews' repeated undisciplined behaviour on the tram". Something to keep in mind when facing racism today. Discrimination is rarely open; there is always a (fake) reason.

Das #Europamagazin von WDR5 wollte von mir wissen, warum in #Finnland die Verteidigungsbereitschaft so hoch ist und was Deutschland und andere Länder davon lernen können:

As the next step, could Maria Corina Machado maybe also become President of the United States?

In short, you can call it a "hamburger" if it contains meat rather than ham, because everyone knows what a hamburger is; but you can't call it a "veggie burger" if it is veggie-based, because that would be confusing. 🙃

The S&D will also vote against today's motion of censure against von der Leyen. But the other side is that trust between the pro-European centre is eroding fast, with threats from the EPP to give vdL 'half a year' and potentially bringing a motion of censure themselves (via @politico.eu).

The two steps of the current political dance in the European Parliament: In the short-term, the EPP's threat to vote with the far-right worked, with the socialists S&D caving on the omnibus deregulation. Now every time the EPP can threaten them with a worse alternative. (From @euractiv.com).

Tragedy of the commons: For each individual sycophant, from Ilham Aliyev to Hun Manet to Brice Oligui Nguema to Isaac Herzog, it makes sense to try to win Trump's favour by suggesting he should win the #NobelPeacePrize. But the more who do this, the harder it gets for the rest of us to stay sane.

Eines Tages, da bin ich mir ganz sicher, werden Qualitätsmedien (wie hier @zeit.de) bei Berichten über umstrittene Entscheidungen im EU-Parlament schon im Teaser dazuschreiben, welche Fraktionen dafür und welche dagegen gestimmt haben. www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...

This went around a few days ago with a "leopards eating faces party" response, but it's more interesting than that. What's happening in Afghanistan actually looks a hell of a lot like what's happening all over the world with rural reactionaries attacking urban centers... (Gift) wapo.st/3XU13pB

Now here in paper - the extensive book coordinated by Michael Harding, Alexander Hoppe and @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu on the EU 2024 elections: www.springerprofessional.de/the-2024-eur...

I publish a guest post on my blog about how to improve Franco-German relations – and an hour later, news breaks that the French prime minister is resigning. 😮 That wasn't the intention!

Ich schalte auf dem Blog einen Gastbeitrag frei, in dem es darum geht, wie die deutsch-französischen Beziehungen verbessert werden können – und eine Stunde später kommt die Nachricht, dass der französische Premierminister zurücktritt. 😮 So war das nicht gemeint!

I've played the "Who goes Nazi?" game in the past, and I don't like it much because it's very judgemental and prejudice-prone. But one positive thing is that it de-historicises fascist traits. It makes you aware that it's not about brown uniforms from the 1930s; it can happen here and today.

Finally, if you prefer a full version outside of substack, here is a mirror thanks to cooperation with @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu @foederalist.eu:

Theory: We don't need a treaty reform, the current Treaties already make it possible to shift from unanimity to QMV. Practice: Member states can't even agree on introducing QMV for opening negotiation clusters in enlargement talks (let alone closing clusters, let alone enlargement as such).

In #EUelections, some parties need far fewer votes than others to win a seat in the European Parliament. This is mostly due to #degressiveproportionality, but not only. In this short video, I analyse the impact of various factors that distort EU-level #electoralequality.

"Justifying retreating from the #OttawaConvention as 'self-defence' sets a dangerous precedent […] Leaving the CCM seems the next step. What follows then? Will states return to chemical weapons—or withdraw from the Geneva Convention?" H. Garbino & @priscyll.bsky.social in @ecprtheloop.bsky.social

"We studied more than 70 different elections that took place in 12 western European countries over several decades, and found that when mainstream parties take more anti-immigration positions, it leads to more support for the radical right, not less."

The success of the far right is not only measured in votes and seats but in its impact on rhetoric, policy and ideology. The fact that a (nominally) social democratic head of government with a huge majority choses to say and do this is maybe the biggest success of the far right in Europe yet.

Heute ist der #TagDesFlüchtlings. Und wir erinnern uns an eine Zeit, die aktuell weit entfernt scheint: 2015 - Eine Welle der Solidarität schwappt durch Deutschland, hunderttausende Menschen helfen ankommenden Geflüchteten bei ihren ersten Schritten in der neuen Heimat... (1/4)

Part of it is certainly the current government's austerity measures, but there was also an asymmetric external shock (Russia sanctions + energy crisis). One of the reasons Finland should long have supported a European short-term unemployment reinsurance scheme. A stronger EU can help.

Neu: @marinatulin.bsky.social & ich haben einen Blogbeitrag zu unserer Europawahlstudie zum vermeintlichen Zusammenhang von TikTok-Nutzung und Wahlverhalten unter jungen Wählenden veröffentlicht ⬇️

The kids, as they often are, are all right