Pleased to contribute to the latest @eastasiaforum.bsky.social Quarterly on the rise of economic security cooperation in Asia. The piece draws on work @vikingbohman.bsky.social @limdarrenj.bsky.social and I have been collaborating on for a while. More to come soon. eastasiaforum.org/2025/10/04/s...

New open access piece in @twqgw.bsky.social on the evolving logic of China's sanctioning behaviour. One of a few things coming out of some recent and productive collaboration with @vikingbohman.bsky.social and Audrye Wong. doi.org/10.1080/0163...

Excited to see our database mentioned in @economist.com today alongside comments by Rebecca Arcesati and @mmaggiori.bsky.social The China Sanctions Monitor, developed with @victoraferguson.bsky.social and Audrye Wong, tracks more than 200 cases of China’s economic sanctions from 2010 to today ...

Judging from the US–China joint statement after talks in Stockholm, and clarifications from China’s Ministry of Commerce, Beijing is again showing no sign of committing to roll back the export controls it has tightened on critical raw materials during the trade war.

“China’s government spending has pivoted toward social welfare to a degree unseen for at least a generation” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

New in @thewirechina.bsky.social: Audrye Wong, @victoraferguson.bsky.social and I on how China’s export controls mirror Western frameworks but keep strategic flexibility through vague legal wording www.thewirechina.com/2025/07/13/c...

NEW: Some bonkers numbers in China's May customs data. Detailed figures came out Fri when I was off, so took a deep dive today First big picture EU stuff: China's EU exports up 12% China's EU imports down 2.37% There is a 22% increase in the EU's China deficit in May alone

China’s sanctions strategy is evolving fast. In a new study, we map 200+ PRC economic restrictions from 2010–2025—the first database to capture the full range of sanctions, from informal state-backed boycotts to formal measures like export controls. /w @victoraferguson.bsky.social, Audrye Wong /1

Exclusive: US-China trade truce leaves military-use rare earth issue unresolved, sources say – Reuters: ‘Beijing has not committed to grant export clearance for some specialized rare-earth magnets that U.S. military suppliers need for fighter jets and missile systems, the people said.’

Bloomberg: #China Forced to Keep Unprofitable Firms Alive to Save Jobs & Avoid Unrest Saddled with the most loss-making industrial companies since 2001, Xi is trying to avoid mass layoffs. Protests rose 41% in the 4th Q from same period in 2023 www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Dan and I have substantially revised our paper after engaging with colleagues. It has been a particularly tough paper for me to think through and digest the why, how, and what of WTO collective action in response to the United States' trade actions. @ssrn.bsky.social papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

1/A government that is willing to do this is the same government that would nationalize a company. It is the same mentality of state-market relations. This is not an issue of Universities need to stand up. The whole free market system needs to stand up. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/u...

One thing worth pointing out: Trump is doing his best to hand the Europeans to Beijing on a plate. That China is unwilling to give even an inch in negotiations with Brussels, even as it puts on the charm with European capitals, tells you all you need to know on how it views Europe.

Yicai: "Seventy-five percent of the Chinese foreign trade enterprises interviewed by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade intend to expand into emerging markets to compensate for shrinking exports to the United States." www.yicaiglobal.com/news/75-of-c...

Thanks for the opportunity and the many useful questions and comments!

The Chinese government has warned South Korean companies of retributions for exporting any product containing its critical metals to US military contractors. www.kedglobal.com/economy/news...

Had fun speaking with students at Taiwan National University about what makes research 'policy-relevant' -- it gave me a reason to revisit this article which I think holds up quite well www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...

I would interpret the US tariff exemptions primarily as an attempt to mitigate the impact on electronics and consumers more than as a signal of a US-China deal. The exempted categories cover about 22% of US imports from China. content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd...

These exempted product categories seem pretty significant. The fact that Trump couldn’t pretend to fully follow through on his tariff threats for more than a few days without caving to lobbying from US firms doesn’t exactly signal strength to Beijing on.ft.com/4lkutXo

Some big exemptions to Trump's reciprocal tariffs here, notably on consumer goods like smartphones, laptops, earphones etc. Big win for US tech, esp Apple. www.ft.com/content/3eb4...

阿塗’s cartoon today: “Fold or Call?”

The spike in Treasury yields is highly unusual & concerning. I don't want to draw too strong a conclusion from a single snapshot in time, but the list of potential disruptions to the status quo where USD/Treasuries = world's 'safe asset' is long & getting longer. Here's a non-exhaustive list. 🧵1/9

China to strengthen ties with neighbours: Xi Jinping’s first comments since trade war escalates – SCMP: ‘delivered at a two-day high-profile central working conference on neighbourhood diplomacy’ ‘the first dedicated session held by China’s top leadership on neighbourhood diplomacy since 2013.’

New open access article in @journalofgss.bsky.social on how China and Russia (similarly!) use economic sanctions. Using new data, I disaggregate 53 CN and 50 RU cases from 2000-23 to look at ~300 separate sanctions, examining 6 mechanisms of implementation and their dynamics. doi.org/10.1093/jogs...

DOGE/Musk preferentially cancelled grants and contracts to recipients in counties that voted for Harris in 2024. Among cancellations with election data available, 92.9% and 86.1% cancelled grants and contracts went to Harris counties, representing 96.6% and 92.4% of total dollar amounts.

1/The government is weaponizing its ties to the private sector. For business this is a new hinge moment of political risk. Supply chain literature has some lessons: identify your exposure, derisk, respond collectively. Failure puts democracy and economy on the line. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/22/n...

"If Lutnick's Democratic predecessor, Gina Raimondo, took such a step -- urging Americans to buy stock in a company led by Joe Biden’s top campaign contributor -- it seems likely that more than a few congressional Republicans would call for her resignation..." www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddo...

Ukraine is Europe! We stand by Ukraine. We will step up our support to Ukraine so that they can continue to fight back the agressor. Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.

Looks like the President of the United States just kicked Zelenskyy out of the WH, a US ally fighting a war of survival:

Zelenky stood in front of the American government, in the seat of our democracy, and thanked our entire nation. Every farmer, teacher, engineer, nurse, and cop. Thanked us on behalf of his entire country. youtu.be/7gjwlCe5T6M?...

Vintage Onion.

Hard to coordinate a response to China when your allies are coordinating a response against you.

Security spending (on police and maintaining stability) has increased across the board under Xi's rule, compared to his predecessor, Hu. But, Xi's rule has also seen larger-sized protests, contrast to popular perception that social unrest has been suppressed.

The PRC’s export control regime has dramatically evolved. Formerly piecemeal, it is now formalized, enabling Beijing to weaponize supply chains by targeting specific critical minerals. New NBR report: Charting China's Export Controls www.nbr.org/publication/...

Here’s an interesting interpretation of “economic security” www.bbc.com/news/article...

”what if a future president threatened to block a deal involving companies that he viewed to be insufficiently laudatory of his administration? Or companies that had not donated to his election campaign? Politicization of CFIUS [and other tools] concentrates enormous power in the executive branch.”

Interesting event studies paper using the Bloomberg SPLC data, shows that the U.S. sanctions forced Huawei to use Chinese suppliers like SMIC which benefited them financially. I am not a huge fan of event studies but still.. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

This is such a monumental self own.

NEW: As both Brussels and Beijing await the return of Trump, EU-China relations are in a holding pattern No talks on EVs, no retaliation from China, no commissioners planning to visit Beijing But security issues could jolt things back into action next week My report www.scmp.com/news/china/a...

Imposing export controls on commodities without allies is hard. There are limits to what export controls can do, particularly if the country doesn't control the IP or have overseas enforcement capacity. Markets find a way. China will learn this.

China imposed new export controls on the US for critical minerals. Will they be effective? We're skeptical. Read the full piece on the Terminal. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

New Chinese sanctions today on American defense industry in response to US arms sales to Taiwan. Targeted US companies are mostly involved in drones, AI and defense technologies more generally. www.mfa.gov.cn/wjb_673085/z...

Trump seems to think he can prevent BRICS from shifting away from the US dollar by threatening trade restrictions. Given that the reduction in the use of the dollar has been driven partly by the US’s own use of sanctions, well-documented in @danielmcdowell.bsky.social latest book, … /1

Having failed to outline an economic security strategy with clear boundaries, the Biden administration is handing Trump an open-ended framework that is primed for further, unrestrained expansion, argue @vikingbohman.bsky.social and Matt Ferchen in this week’s op-ed. https://buff.ly/3AZRZql

What can we expect from Trump in terms of economic security? Matt Ferchen and I got the opportunity to share our thoughts at @thewirechina.bsky.social. Spoiler: we're not optimistic. A summary below. www.thewirechina.com/2024/11/24/b...

The global economy is rewired as nations compete for control over and access to strategic assets: tech, infra, minerals, advanced manufacturing, data, etc. Some of the people who think and write about the causes, effects, policies, and strategies of geoeconomic competition. go.bsky.app/5Bb8Ma9

Glad to have contributed a chapter on Taiwan’s economic security to this volume by the German Marshall Fund. It builds on a week of discussions with Taiwanese experts during the “Taiwan-US-EU Policy Program" led by Bonnie Glaser www.gmfus.org/news/next-ge...

We presented our work on Sweden’s economic vulnerabilities at the Swedish 'China Forum', a new flagship event by the Swedish National China Centre, in discussion with parliamentarian Mathias Tegner, Counsellor Tina Sundström Karlberg, and Björn Fägersten.

Don't miss this exciting new podcast on the ins and outs of economic security and geoeconomics 💸

As the EU moves forward with plans to de-risk ties with China, it is encountering a familiar problem: getting businesses to go on the record with their gripes Story from me: www.scmp.com/news/china/d...