Naunihal Singh (@naunihal.bsky.social)

El Fasher: A Bloody New Chapter in Sudan’s Ruinous War | International Crisis Group On 26 October, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured the city of El Fasher, capital of North Darfur and the last remaining stronghold of the Sudanese army in the entire Darfur region. Victory for the RSF capped a decisive three-day offensive that overwhelmed the remaining positions of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and allied Darfuri groups. The battle for the city has been one of the most intense confrontations in a war that has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions. Conflict first erupted over El Fasher in November 2023, when major factions, including the forces of Darfuri leaders Minni Minawi and Jibril Ibrahim, openly backed the army in trying to halt RSF expansion. Several factors eventually aligned in the RSF’s favour. A prolonged siege cut off supplies and reinforcements to the army and its allies, driving starvation and despair among soldiers and civilians. The RSF’s expanded arsenal, reportedly supplied by the United Arab Emirates, included anti-aircraft systems, surveillance drones and heavy artillery, neutralising the army’s air advantage. Despite RSF leaders’ pledges to guarantee the safety of El Fasher’s residents, early reports suggest its forces are responsible for violent atrocities. Numerous videos shared by RSF soldiers show them executing detainees. Other reports point to a spate of mass killings, arbitrary detentions of those accused of being army affiliates, and rape and sexual violence against women. RSF forces also appear to be restricting the movement of those trying to flee, especially men. Videos posted online suggest some RSF forces are motivated by revenge or the conviction that residents who chose to remain in El Fasher are aligned with their enemies, even though aid groups have reported thousands of civilians were simply trapped in the besieged city. These atrocities will further damage RSF’s reputation in Sudan and elsewhere. El Fasher’s fall also has profound consequences for Sudan, deepening the country’s de facto partition. For the first time, the RSF has consolidated its writ over the west of the country, securing transnational supply routes and asserting itself as a governing authority. The country now has two competing centres of power, the RSF in the west and SAF-aligned institutions in the centre and east. The city’s fall also shifts Sudan’s war eastward, where RSF forces have formed a coalition with Abdelaziz al-Hilu’s armed group, Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, in South Kordofan. With the RSF emboldened and the SAF entrenched, Sudan faces a political stalemate that neither side can break militarily. Having demanded a RSF withdrawal from El Fasher as a precondition for negotiations, the army and its allies now appear far less disposed to engage in talks in the immediate aftermath of this defeat. Avoiding a permanent east-west partition will require urgent, creative diplomacy by the U.S.-led “Quad” process, which also includes Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. These four countries convened both parties in the Sudanese war for talks in Washington on a truce proposal in October, but without making a breakthrough. Their task has since become even harder. https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sudan/el-fasher-bloody-new-chapter-sudans-ruinous-war