West Bengal state elections results have had their first international effect. lol timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-...

Media is the problem! I scream, as I develop amnesia that most reporters and journos at the top newsmedia places have been fired.

Yet again, the conflation of military success at removing Maduro with achieving the political objective of removing the Chavista regime and creating a stable new regime kneecaps U.S. foreign policy. The chances of a 1970s Nicaragua-style rebellion are now increasing. www.wsj.com/world/americ...

The stakes of the Midterm elections keep increasing as the popularity of the president tanks and civil-military relations have been in sustained crisis. This is leading into really uncomfortable Linz territory.

OMG, the Dems have a plan! They have an agenda! I will not support these on principle because I firmly believe that we must pursue the perfect: the good be damned. Progress must immediately yield a workers paradise like 1980s Bucharest. All or Nothing!

Russia's former Defense Minister (2001-2007) Sergei Ivanov has been Windowed on 26 June.

If Nicaragua is a precedent, Venezuela may face a violent rebellion after this earthquake. The farce in this tragedy is that the U.S. is now allied to the incumbent regime yet again.

The collapse of reporting and journalism as a profession affects policymaking and, thus, profits too. Corporations should have realized that, but their CEOs and boards only serve quarterlies and shareholder value.

TL;DR: the Iran ceasefire is collapsing. The U.S. is implying that it can use all military means, which means ground troops of some kind because the air force and navy are already being used.

The recent political changes in the Indian state of West Bengal have ramifications for northern South Asia, India-China relations, Southeast Asia, and maritime affairs in the Bay of Bengal, Malacca Straits and the Indian Ocean Region. Not one article in a foreign policy journal. Not a single one!

I expect the U.S. invasion to create something between Syria and Afghanistan. Spheres of interest carved out by U.S. and a great power (Russia) and regional powers like Pakistan and possibly Iraq (Saudis and Turkey?). Plus, one or more rebel groups.

The U.S. is inexorably moving toward deploying ground troops in Iran. The Ayatollahs are unable to recognize that their whole show will crumble. Will it create peace in Iran and the Middle East? I doubt it. If anything, it may lead to Syria Part II.

Your substack or whatever is not an e-magazine. It's your blog. FML

As one of the few scholars still traveling to and from Russia, Dr. Nina Khrushcheva joined @maxbergmann.bsky.social & @msnegovaya.bsky.social to discuss her rare, personal view of how Russian culture, politics, and society have evolved. New episode of #RussianRoulette: www.csis.org/podcasts/rus...

"The percentage you're paying is too high-priced While you're living beyond all your means The man in the suit has just bought a new car From the profit he's made on your dreams But today you just read that the man was shot dead By a gun that didn't make any noise ...".

Never thought I'd see a political reference to Alfred E. Neumann in 2026. Truly, we are in 1970s redux.

I raise a toast to this suggestion. Berry has charm and charisma.

They did something to create the Grand Canyon. They did something to create the Niagra Falls. They did something to create the Mojave Desert.

Subtleties change the meaning: he says he will abide by the judges (obedezco). But because this follows ‘escrutinios’ which is the scrutinised recount given a narrow margin, this call is to await those results while calling for unity.

WARNING: CONSUMING LIQUIDS WHILE READING THIS CAN CAUSE LAUGHTER INDUCED SNORTING IN PUBLIC.

Look folks, you can't support polyamory, European vacations, welfare spending, and social cohesion from the same social media account and not be considered either stupid or a hypocrite.

The actual tweet by Pres. Petro calls for the judiciary to decide the winner due to the narrow margin of victory. It also calls for a government of national unity.

Colombia's Pres. Petro denies that leftwing candidate (and political heir) Cepeda has lost the presidential election runoff to the right-wing candidate Espriella, citing election irregularities.

None of this may matter electorally because new and old supporters still prefer Trump and Trumpism over GOP and Democratic candidates and ideology. But it sure is interesting to see the weakness arise from the slow crumbling away of supporters rather than concerted opponents.

I honestly didn't expect the slow crumbling of the Trump voter base. I thought, he has created a stronger, broader base. But it seems the breadth sacrificed the depth. Now, the tensions between policies of new versus old supporters is also alienating the old ones. I didn't see that coming.

Yes, fuel shortages in Russia will negatively affect its arms production. You're welcome!

What is a sure shot sign that your career will be a disappointment in your 40s and 50s? I think, it's being featured on a 30 under 30 list by a magazine.

It's now the self-reflecting pool.

It's the same logic as the U.S.-Iran air war. We attacked Iran, albeit with one hand tied in terms of ground troops. Iran didn't give in. They survived. They won. The U.S. being a nation of shopkeepers like its mother country had the good sense to walk away from the mess. That's the difference.

Russia had a window of opportunity to win the war last year. Trump would've shoved the deal down Ukraine and NATO's throat. But that window is lost because Putin overplayed his hand. Will Ukraine win? No. But a great power stalemating with a minor power neighbor means the minor power won.

I suggest, Iran's Ayatollahs get their suits tailored on the Row.

Two years later, the Sundar Burj quilt top is officially done.

The US recently expanded sanctions on Nicaraguan officials, but I argue in the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs that a major US pressure campaign like in Venezuela & Cuba remains unlikely, w/Nicaragua a lower political & economic priority gjia.georgetown.edu/conflict-sec...

Went to a local pub in Glasgow, Scotland called Sloans. Alone. Just noticed the Jack Daniels bottles. A little bit of Tennessee. Warmed my tired heart on a dreary evening.

Thank You! I hope, I can live up to yall's expectations.

Why has India failed at defense production at scale? Using the ends+ways+means=strategy approach, we argue its production process (way) is hurt by Vertically Integrated State-Owned Enterprises, while it lacks the means of domestic skilled labor and machine tools. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

I am genuinely afraid that we may become reacquainted with this stanza: "Woe, woe!" will be the cry– No quiet murmur like the tremulous wail Of the lone bird, the querulous nightingale–".

Imagine being a female version of this guy in the U.S. intel community. lol

A pacted transition relying on deals with state institutions rather than including the opposition will fail to convince the opposition to not prosecute the ex-leaders. Thus, given the shadow of the future, also fail to convince the incumbent to give up power. In fact, it may lead to violence.

If the TSA in the U.S. delivers a Golden Globe winning performances of security theater, their Indian counterparts CISF deliver proper Oscar worthy stuff.

Don't just criticize the Indian defense industry. It has 2 different stories. The public sector firms underperform, but the private sector firms are doing well. A tough feat because of the stepmotherly treatment they receive from the government and accumulated advantages of the public sector firms.

If the Cuban regime collapses there'll be an exodus to the U.S. and/or other Caribbean and Central American nations. If there's a controlled regime change, chances are still nonzero. One way to avoid this is to keep the regime, but change its foreign and domestic policies save those on immigration.

Hi Comparativists, What is a good compendium alternative to Lichbach and Zuckermann's "Comparative Politics" 2nd ed. and Boix's "Oxford Handbook of Comparative Politics"? They are both from 2009, so I am looking something more contemporary.

Thank You! Really appreciate it. For its relevance to scholars and practitioners, the book also received a recommendation from @warontherocks.bsky.social . warontherocks.com/2020-wotr-ho...

I actually support controlling antidepressants and other behavior altering drugs for kids. But I want a proper post-stoppage plan. At least subsidies and funds for psychological therapy, if not access to psychiatrists. Otherwise, we are risking a suicide and narco epidemic among the youth.

It may be crap! But the sensation of writing without doing the whole social science kabuki theatre of jargon and complicating simple insights, by reading, outlining, writing, reading, editing, writing, and editing, was most restorative to some part of my heart and mind. Haven't done this in years.

I churned out a complete draft of a U.S. civil-military relations article, this semester. It connects CP and Americanist insights on presidentialism, regimes of exception, and amoral presidents. Brute force read up and wrote it. Haven't done something like this in years. It felt like a purge.

Not much I can bet on about U.S. politics other than (a) there will be pre- and post-electoral violence, (b) the rushed gerrymandering will have inadvertent outcomes neither party's supporters anticipate, and (c) that will exacerbate post-electoral violence.

There is no daylight between Venezuela's Chavista regime and the opposition about annexing Guyana's Essequibo region. Now, this also means rights to offshore oil. Nobody in DC appears to be paying any attention. The regime seems to be waiting out the Trump administration. apnews.com/article/vene...

The election in West Bengal, India where I grew up has a bunch of Non-Resident Indians screaming on SM. Many of them from Calcutta my childhood hometown. I did this, too. Then I realized that I don't live there. I haven't for more than 20 years; nearly 30. Let folks there vote and worry about it.