If the Cuban regime collapses there'll be an exodus to the U.S. and/or other Caribbean and Central American nations. If there's a controlled regime change, chances are still nonzero. One way to avoid this is to keep the regime, but change its foreign and domestic policies save those on immigration.

Hi Comparativists, What is a good compendium alternative to Lichbach and Zuckermann's "Comparative Politics" 2nd ed. and Boix's "Oxford Handbook of Comparative Politics"? They are both from 2009, so I am looking something more contemporary.

Thank You! Really appreciate it. For its relevance to scholars and practitioners, the book also received a recommendation from @warontherocks.bsky.social . warontherocks.com/2020-wotr-ho...

I actually support controlling antidepressants and other behavior altering drugs for kids. But I want a proper post-stoppage plan. At least subsidies and funds for psychological therapy, if not access to psychiatrists. Otherwise, we are risking a suicide and narco epidemic among the youth.

It may be crap! But the sensation of writing without doing the whole social science kabuki theatre of jargon and complicating simple insights, by reading, outlining, writing, reading, editing, writing, and editing, was most restorative to some part of my heart and mind. Haven't done this in years.

I churned out a complete draft of a U.S. civil-military relations article, this semester. It connects CP and Americanist insights on presidentialism, regimes of exception, and amoral presidents. Brute force read up and wrote it. Haven't done something like this in years. It felt like a purge.

Not much I can bet on about U.S. politics other than (a) there will be pre- and post-electoral violence, (b) the rushed gerrymandering will have inadvertent outcomes neither party's supporters anticipate, and (c) that will exacerbate post-electoral violence.

There is no daylight between Venezuela's Chavista regime and the opposition about annexing Guyana's Essequibo region. Now, this also means rights to offshore oil. Nobody in DC appears to be paying any attention. The regime seems to be waiting out the Trump administration. apnews.com/article/vene...

The election in West Bengal, India where I grew up has a bunch of Non-Resident Indians screaming on SM. Many of them from Calcutta my childhood hometown. I did this, too. Then I realized that I don't live there. I haven't for more than 20 years; nearly 30. Let folks there vote and worry about it.

Mamdani's bit about the Kohinoor Diamond and King Charles is like sand in my teeth. The mayor of NYC is an American: he should forward his city's and America's perspective in foreign policy. I get the righteousness: I heard about it ad infinitum growing up. But this is virtue signaling at its worst.

BOLSONARISMO vs MILITARES Cobrança por emendas, acusação de intimidação e atuação de assessorias militares elevam tensão na comissão de Relações Exteriores da Câmara. O motivo? O de sempre: MILITARES ATRAVESSANDO A RUA PARA FAZER POLÍTICA! LEIA 👇️ iclnoticias.com.br/camara-embat...

When did Adobe become such a pain to use and why?!?

Pithy essay on the Colombian presidential elections and U.S. foreign policy. I wish there was more here on Colombian civil-military relations and how this affects U.S.-Venezuelan relations, too. But that's perhaps another essay. orfamerica.org/orf-america-...

IDK how the Cuban regime changes without a massive refugee wave to the U.S. and other places. Maybe there is a path forward like retaining the regime with new leaders and pro-U.S. trade and foreign policy? But even that can lead to an exodus as the regime cannot crackdown on those wanting to leave.

The gerrymandering race may not have the effect pundits are expecting because it tends to reduce margins of victory.

Ah! East Tennessee, where people argue about the correct spellings of Scottish last names at the grocery store till.

Wasn't expecting this, but also I am not that surprised. Don't ask me for my opinions: I was/am not following the elections.

Whites will be a minority in America by 2050 says someone who has absolutely no freaking clue about race and class among Hispanic Americans. Look up blanquismo or even casta for all those not in the know. The left needs to do way better than think of Hispanic Americans as homogenous and unchanging.

I ordered a Timex watch for @carolyneholmes.bsky.social that was supposed to have arrived in March. Me: they postponed delivery again to 1-12 June. Her: Timex is the Rolex of digital watches.

Brah, I think the chances of the DoD getting 4 new subs in 2028 are higher than it producing a clean audit by then. lol

The current leadership of Venezuela is trying to run out the clock on the Trump administration. Pretty impressive strategy for survival. Question is what happens if someone like Rubio succeeds Trump? They'll curse themselves for not going into exile.

I deeply respect the historical work of RAND. But it lost out it in the Post-Cold War era budget cuts and strategic aimlessness. It wasn't designed to handle GWOT research. It tried that, and failed. Its return to GPC is awkward. It has hired a few solid people. But that's not institutional culture.

Latin American populist leaders don't fall to the traditional opposition. They fall to fragmentation of their base, which then switches to the opposition. However, in doing so, they also create a new opposition.

Massive multi-institutional failure. www.thedailybeast.com/this-is-the-...

A story in which all my worlds collide: Iran war hits pistachio supplies amid Dubai chocolate boom www.luxtimes.lu/businessandf...

The Chancellor of the Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville has recommended me for Tenure and Promotion to the Board of Trustees. Many thanks to my external letter writers, coauthors Ben Tkach, Sean Webeck and Prashant Hosur Suhas, my Poli Sci deptartment family and most of all @carolyneholmes.bsky.social.

We are seeing fraudulent submissions at @jeas-journal.bsky.social in which a researcher's name and ORCID is used without their knowledge on AI-generated submissions. I do not know what the angle is for such submissions, but this is why I think that in many domains, AI makes more work than it saves

Cannot make this up if you wanted to. lol www.thedailybeast.com/top-trump-te...

A major new supplying country has entered the international arms market. news.cgtn.com/news/2026-04...

The Mauser C9S (broomhandle) was a bit like the AK-47 of its day. There are numerous variants produced in different countries with highly variable quality. So, be extremely careful buying or operating one.

My latest article is out. It argues that sea control has been reimagined in recent years, driven by a dramatic change in the value that states place upon the seas. This in turn is impacting navies across the globe. 1/ www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Have you ever wondered about the history of 20th C. Mongolia, including its relationship to both Moscow and Beijing? Wonder no more! youtu.be/B3CNKYy7V2w

FYI: discussions about AI helping defense via selection of targets and guiding munitions goes back to the 1970s and was well known by the 1980s.

A set of academics wanted Covid rituals made permanent. The internet classes, the masking, the social distancing, etc., etc.. They were loudest on social media. What shocked me was how soon they dominated our discourse and shunned concerns about learning outcomes and staff employment on campus.

Are your drunk because you're getting crushed by your job? Are you drunk because you're in the closet and have a fake marriage? Both? lol

Getting that bipartisan support to become a Prime by doing racism: a major marketing and PR win.

This is a kludge in the sense that it is restricted to daylight and good visibility. The ideal solution is a piston driven plane equipped with look down shoot down radar, and thermal-optical imaging in the nose, armed with 20mm cannon, essentially an updated De Havilland Mosquito night fighter.

The IN isn't the USN. The IN seldom does anything in anger: distributes emergency aid, protects against pirates, does port calls, etc.. But the IN has a depot of contingency plans and the ability to grievously hurt anybody in the IOR region save the USN. I wish Iran best of luck for getting wrecked.

Desi Bro gets overwhelmed, drunk, blows through his job, and gets angry that he was caught. This is an old timey Bollywood stereotype. lol

Forthcoming: Vasabjit Banerjee and Benjamin Tkach. "Strategic Competition and Industrial Weakness: Why India Lost its Way on Defense Manufacturing". Comparative Strategy. If anyone wants an advanced copy, please, send word.

What exactly happened to due dates for class assignments? Do they matter anymore? Are assignments now to be accepted on a rolling basis?

Value Arm planes downing value arms drones. Cost effectiveness and scaling matter again.

It's not the man whose petrified mind makes him claim to know God's will, but the one who leaves himself open to be judged by God that will ultimately inherit the warlord's mantle.

I will continue calling my undergrads "kids". Sorry, not sorry.

Applications for our 2026 New Era Workshop (NEW) are still open through May 3! NEW will be held September 24-26, 2026 in Denver. If you know any PhD students in international affairs and related disciplines who might be interested, please pass along.

Excited to announce my latest publication: "Challengers in a Pandemic: COVID-19 States of Exception, Opposition Parties, and Outcomes in Southern Africa." It's available now! academic.oup.com/afraf/advanc...

I feel that, too. Youngsters need more "lower barrier" venues to meet in person. They can exchange flirty messages on an app, but then feel awkward when they meet up on a well lit coffee shop or (shudder) a juice bar.

IMHO, healthy living culture is destroying social culture. This especially affects the 20-30 bracket: the gym will never replace the intergenerational camaraderie of a bar or the lower barriers to finding a love interest like a nightclub. Web matching is a really imperfect substitute for those too.

people in the replies bringing up Hillary as an example of a recent dem who "understood hard power" and hooooo boy is that both missing the point and simultaneously unintentionally proving it