"We studied more than 70 different elections that took place in 12 western European countries over several decades, and found that when mainstream parties take more anti-immigration positions, it leads to more support for the radical right, not less."

The success of the far right is not only measured in votes and seats but in its impact on rhetoric, policy and ideology. The fact that a (nominally) social democratic head of government with a huge majority choses to say and do this is maybe the biggest success of the far right in Europe yet.

Heute ist der #TagDesFlüchtlings. Und wir erinnern uns an eine Zeit, die aktuell weit entfernt scheint: 2015 - Eine Welle der Solidarität schwappt durch Deutschland, hunderttausende Menschen helfen ankommenden Geflüchteten bei ihren ersten Schritten in der neuen Heimat... (1/4)

Part of it is certainly the current government's austerity measures, but there was also an asymmetric external shock (Russia sanctions + energy crisis). One of the reasons Finland should long have supported a European short-term unemployment reinsurance scheme. A stronger EU can help.

Neu: @marinatulin.bsky.social & ich haben einen Blogbeitrag zu unserer Europawahlstudie zum vermeintlichen Zusammenhang von TikTok-Nutzung und Wahlverhalten unter jungen Wählenden veröffentlicht ⬇️

The kids, as they often are, are all right

Driven by fear of the far right, the EU is losing its compass, whether on migration, climate or Gaza. By undermining its own principles, Europe weakens its global position and risks losing not just dignity but political agency. With @jannikjansen.bsky.social: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Had to double check to make sure this wasn’t AI generated

Fun fact: Right now, Finland would massively benefit from an EU short-term unemployment reinsurance scheme, as proposed during the euro crisis (www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-... ) but never implemented due to the reluctance of "frugal" member states like Finland.

It's also world-leading in modesty! 🙃

As @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu highlighted, @beckermax.bsky.social, @johannaflach.bsky.social and I wanted to dig deeper into how far-right parties are already shaping EU politics. Here is our analysis for @swp-berlin.org:

Before #EP2024, I predicted the far right to gain power in EU institutions "not through sweeping victory, but creeping normalisation": fiia.fi/en/publicati... Now, @beckermax.bsky.social et al. have analysed the "creeping integration of far-right parties in Europe". I wish I'd been more wrong.

In this NYT piece, Finland gets billed as Europe’s radical climate leader. Meanwhile the distance between promises and policy is growing. The story boosts the 2035 net-zero brand without asking if this cabinet is on course. Targets haven’t changed. Implementation has, and not for the better. 🧵

If we really want to have a "Le Pen proof" MFF, or an MFF whose negotiations can be fast-tracked if need be, we should have abolished unanimity requirements for it a long time ago.

Fast-tracking talks on the next MFF, when even the current (🇩🇰) and next (🇨🇾) Council presidencies can't agree what the priorities should be. That sounds... ambitious.

War der "Start eines Zweistaaten-Prozesses", den Wadephul jetzt fordert, nicht schon 1993?

Grenzbeamte verletzen und töten Asylsuchende an den EU-Grenzen immer öfter, statt sie rechtsstaatlich zu behandeln. Mehr Menschen sollten wissen, was die rechte Antimigrations-Propaganda und Rufe nach „Begrenzung“ praktisch bedeuten: Entrechtung, Entwürdigung und ja, auch Tod.

Dieser Eindruck wird immer wieder erhärtet. via @stefanfries.bsky.social

Happy #InternationalDayOfDemocracy everyone!

"…and Magda Goebbels made a great strudel.”

If you’re an academic and you’re not worried by the sort of rhetoric then you’re not paying attention. You might think you’re insulated from this in the UK, but this sort of anti-academic propaganda is travelling over here.

I've seen a few tweets wondering whether Forney even understands what the Reichstag fire was. But his description of the government's reaction (arresting opposition politicians, party bans) is historically accurate. So he does know which side he is on in this analogy.

These two paragraphs, these two statements one after the other is quite something.

Due to a technical mishap, @sophiepornschlegel.bsky.social 's contribution on the #MFF was missing when our compilation of #SOTEU25 short analyses went online yesterday. Added now, please have a look!

I've edited a collection of #SOTEU25 short analyses at @foederalist.eu. Many thanks to all the contributors, a great mix of colleagues from @fiia.fi, the #EuropeanPolicyQuartet, and other friends!

⬇️relevant⬇️for⬇️Germany⬇️

Here's EurActiv giving likelihoods to what Macron will do next: - Appoint centrist PM 6/10 - Appoint socialist PM 4/10 - Appoint technocrat PM 2/10 - Appoint far-right PM 0.5/10 - Dissolve Assembly 1/10 - Resign 1/10 ...which means that one of these things will happen with a probability of 145%!

Highest level of support since Gallup started asking this question a quarter century ago

For people my age, growing up we often asked ourselves, and each other, 'What would you have done if you were Iiving under Nazi occupation?' And 'Why didn't people stop fascism before it took hold?' For years, we wondered. The answer? What you are doing now is what you would have done then.

There is no bottom

Having the CDU Chancellor say he wants German to be a StRaTeGiC LeAdEr, then cutting €1 billion from the development cooperation budget (the only foreign policy arm where Germany has an honest-to-god global footprint), is frankly stupid.

"Fluchtursachen bekämpfen", anyone?

On #immigration, true #cosmopolitans should argue that states violating people’s right to #free movement should either be sentenced, or owe compensations to the people harmed, or that States deserve #amnesty Why has nobody ever considered these positions? academic.oup.com/migration/ar...

Will the absence of reliable automatic metro service in the United States mark the moment its citizens notice how far behind their country has fallen?

The new #EPseatprojection is out!

Die neue #EPsitzprojektion ist da!

Sehr lesenswert! 👇

Long thread on how to fight for democracy. Read all the way through. It’s worth it.

Gibt es das eigentlich auch in anderen Ländern, dass sich das politische Feuilleton zehn Jahre lang pro und contra an einzelnen Sätzen ("Der Islam gehört zu Deutschland", "Wir schaffen das" ...) abarbeitet?

"So much is being said about Finland’s attractiveness and how to bring in more international talent. But if Finland is unable to secure jobs for the foreigners or retain them, what is the point of attracting them?"

Just in case you hadn't got anything to worry about this morning.

“Federal law enforcement asked the crews to line up to check their IDs, according to the firefighters. One of the firefighters said members of the crew were told not to take video of the incident.” DHS did this as flames actively raged. www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news...

After many successful years in the US, the musical “Only the left and liberals have agency” gets performed in Germany …

And now: Fingers crossed that other countries will not take Finland as a role model here and that the achievements of the #OttawaConvention in preventing cruel deaths (particularly in the Global South) will not be undone.

This, indeed.

Saying things that come across as "we deport better than the far right" or "we actively implement what the far right wants" is such a strange brag for any democratic party, let alone one that's supposedly "centre-left". Like what are you trying to say?

„We have a land war on European continent. We are fully dependent on US. None of the EU members was ready to risk further escalation“. The way @sabineweyand.bsky.social explains EU-US-deal is exactly right. She explains EU‘s trade-offs & rationale — and doesn‘t put lipstick on a pig. (SZ-Dossier)

OK, I get that Farage is laughing because he doesn't even need to govern to see his policies implemented. But why is this narrative promoted by the UK Labour Party? Are they also doing the campaigning for Reform now?

While it's getting a little repetitive it also makes my work easier: tariff negotiations with Trump are not a one-time occasion and there is no certainty for agreed upon "deals".