"The fact that the United States has crossed the line into competitive authoritarianism does not mean that its democratic decline has reached a point of no return. Trump’s authoritarian offensive is now unmistakable, but it is reversible" www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Man, I bet that beer is SO cold.

How much of it is just a national reluctance to relitigate this shit because it was such a mess the first time round?

Do we have any indication on who Beavo will be supporting in the next general election?

They are coming in their thousands. I heard.

Big new blogpost! My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more. --> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful. www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...

Is now a good time to mention that I updated my model and Dortmund are closing in on being the second best team in the Bundesliga? Shame I didn't include a feature for being dumb as fucking rocks. predicting-ball.co.uk

You might think you are better than butter chicken, but let me tell you, you are not better than butter chicken.

One problem that political science has is that people who have no idea what science is make very confident but wrong assertions about what counts as science and what doesn't.

Is Julian Brandt the ugliest football player that is pretty handsome off-the-pitch? Turns into a melted candle after a couple sprints.

Millions, perhaps

I wrote about the birth and the death of the Group of Death: www.espn.com/soccer/story...

Keir Starmer’s Substack is a bit from a short-lived British comedy about depression.

Been wiped out lately and can't tell if it's due to an illness I had weeks ago, the weather/time of year, or being old. I'm headed for the glue factory.

It has to stop

Survey experiments' popularity in political science is getting attention. What is good and bad about them? How can one maximize their benefits and mitigate their downsides? Greg Huber and I wrote up our thoughts: Paywalled: doi.org/10.1016/bs.h... Free: m-graham.com/papers/Huber...

It can't be good for the Engliah psyche to get bullied by men called Mitchell all the time

my complete, map-filled, analysis of the 2025 election in New York City -How Zohran won the primary -How Zohran won the general (different story!) -How this election, beneath the surface, actually offers some of the best evidence of a developing blue wave www.expectinggoals.com/p/how-zohran...

All beers can be categorised into starter, main, or pudding.

You people will get what you deserve

We gotta bring back bullying, especially for anyone promoting Samuel P Huntington.

new Expecting Goals newsletter! what happens when teams have "nothing to play for"? using analytics to find out who wants it more www.expectinggoals.com/p/what-happe...

don't really think drugs, as a concept, will ever be able to recover from the reputational hit they're about to take

Has anyone considered that Piranesi is just about someone going through psychosis when writing their PhD thesis?

I wish they showed more South American football on TV over here. The Copa Libertadores final is a highlight every season and then I have to wait a whole year to enjoy that level of chaos and violence again.

Replication drama, you say?

Am I allowed to say that I like GAIL's?

thanksgiving is a time for people to come together, to celebrate the spirit of unity despite our differences, and to demonstrate that, here is busta rhymes performing "break ya neck" with raphael the ninja turtle

In the park ripping lumps off the focaccia loaf

This is chopper on chopper violence

Seen a lot of excuses from Bayern (and BuLi) folks. I'm sure they are not as far off Arsenal as they looked yesterday and mistakes and injuries didn't help… but maybe Arsenal are just better? Take your lumps.

Wondering how good #FCBayern are ahead of their clash with Arsenal tonight? How about a big fancy model that goes to great lengths to say “Yes, Bayern Munich are very good”? #UCL #ARSFCB

The title race is not over until the probability of one team winning the league is 100% (Bayern Munich currently have a probability of 98.9%, according to my model). Elsewhere, Leverkusen are beating BVB to the "best other team in the Bundesliga" title. predicting-ball.co.uk #BVB #Bundesliga

The Office of Budget Responsibility uses ggplot2 pass it on

OBR? Office for Budget Reveals amirite?

We getting mad about stuff? Hell yeah brother, count me in.

Bolsonaro behind bars is a reminder: democracies survive when they stop letting criminals play government.

Wait pecan pie is divisive?

There's this weird mindset that voters won't object to a breaking of tax promises is if it's done in a sufficiently convoluted way. Like they're fae creatures impressed you found a way around their contract terms or something.

Leverkusen firing Ten Hag in like 5 weeks is basically like when J. Cole apologized to Kendrick in 24 hours. They looked dumb doing it, but it was the smart move in the end and now they can sleep soundly at night while doing fun things like beating Manchester City

I have to savour these moments.

Southampton and Dortmund both winning 3-0. As we all predicted.

Southampton Football Club are the best team in the world. I'm always saying this.

Good to see Harvey Barnes going out there and proving the haters (@themlg.bsky.social) wrong once again.

I think what's interesting (from my English perspective) is how little this sort of thing is on anyone's radar over here. Folks talk about the arrogance of English football fans... I think it's more an insularity. Most folks are completely unaware this is going on!

Follow up from last month. This time with a more narrow focus on wide attackers for a more fair positional comparison. Salah is a great player but it's not quite working right now. Unusual territory.

The title race is not over until the probability of one team winning the league is 100% (Bayern Munich currently have a probability of 98.9%, according to my model). Elsewhere, Leverkusen are beating BVB to the "best other team in the Bundesliga" title. predicting-ball.co.uk #BVB #Bundesliga

Yer da watches team training sessions