🚨 NEW from VoteHub: the Trump Score 🚨 Trump's influence over Congress in 2025 was massive. @tsyang27 shows who followed and who defied. In the tradition of FiveThirtyEight’s presidential agreement projects. 🧵

Offering some play-by-play on yesterday‘s unusually long rule vote in the house. My latest on @misofact.bsky.social. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Strong correlation between state partisan lean and how often Democratic senators vote with Trump. Still, considerable variation between (e.g., GA vs. NV) and within (MN, DE, MD) Senate delegations.

Mike Johnson's historically narrow majority isn't the only, or even the biggest, problem he's faced as Speaker. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...

The U.S. Senate infamously operates with a 3/5 threshold to cut off debate. 31 states have no supermajority threshold whatsoever. Seven states have one in both chambers. Data: Curry/Oldham 2025.

By a vote of 52-47, the #Senate agreed to the motion to discharge S.J. Res. 98 War Powers Resolution (Venezuela). GOP senators voting in favor: Collins, Hawley, Murkowski, Paul, and Young. Senators Daines did not vote.

We're excited to release version 1.0 of the Dynamic Democracy website. It includes updated data on state policy, public opinion, mass ideology, and representation. The website enables you to see how these measures are changing overtime across states and within states. www.dynamicdemocracy.us

Official congressional e-newsletters mentioning "Venezuela" over time, by party

My thoughts on the state of House GOP leadership, with data on discharge petitions and links to good stuff from @mattglassman312.bsky.social @joshhuder.bsky.social @sarahbinder.bsky.social & others.

As leadership loses control of the narrative and majority members become increasingly afraid of a wipe-out at the polls due to negative ratings and redistricting, the incentives of the rank-and-file will be to assert their independence. firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/a-fracturi...

Discharge rule continues campaign for 2025 MVP award🏆! Coalition to extend ACA support hits 218 signatures, matching record 4 "entered" discharge petitions set 90 years ago (1937-8). Speakers today may have peak agenda power, but that's no match for angry 218 (and an organized minority).

Ideological variation within Senate delegations is much greater among Republicans. Nokken-Poole scores for the 118th and 119th Congress show that 18 out of 20 most ideologically diverse same-party Senate delegations are Rs. Top 3 is Lee-Romney, McConnell-Paul, Young-Braun.

The 119 members who co-sponsored Rep. Fitzpatrick's bipartisan Russia sanctions bill are more moderate, more likely to be on Foreign Affairs, and from more competitive districts. BUT the ideological cleavage is much stronger on the Republican side!

The DNC / state parties would have to decide how to handle the results for delegate allocation purposes, but the party itself can't switch state-run primaries to RCV. That would require passing new state laws, or else the party disregarding the primary in favor of some private thing like caucuses.

Maine's four-person Congressional delegation is one of the smallest in the country. Yet their mixed votes on the bill to reopen the government reflect the national divide over the fraught issue. n.pr/4p5VEpY

On passage of the CR in the House: All Republicans "aye" except (voting nay): Thomas Massie (KY) Gregory Steube (FL) All Democrats "nay" except (voting aye) Henry Cuellar (TX) Donald Davis (NC) Jared Golden (ME) Adam Gray (CA) Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA) Thomas Suozzi (NY)

Will be watching how many Dems vote yes, and how many Rs vote no. Of the ten members of the Blue Dog Coalition, only Rep. Mike Thompson came out against the deal so far.

so currently defectors are: Kaine (2030) Shaheen (Retiring) Hasan (2028) Fetterman (2028) Durbin (Retiring) CCM (2028) Rosen (2030) King (2030)

I wonder to what extent senators who are retiring or are far away from primaries agreed to vote for the CR/minibus so that their colleagues, like Sen. Schumer, could vote against.

What's in the Continuing Resolution/ Minibus deal for the Legislative branch? I crunched the numbers, read the bill, and analyzed the committee report. Here's a quick analysis--with the hope that 'quick' and 'analysis' is not an oxymoron. Key takeaway: it doesn't protect the power of the purse.

"Golden got it. Our electoral rules are obsolete. He understood why representatives who don’t fit easily into either party are so rare: the electoral system works against them." leedrutman.substack.com/p/politics-k...

More on diagnosing American politics, and why I am skeptical of simplistic messaging/organizing prescriptions. Presidents Shape Parties More than Parties Shape Presidents – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/presidents-s...

I haven't spent a ton of time working through this, but it draws heavily on national party insights to make recommendations for Dem candidates... who are already doing these things? Over three-quarters of Ds discuss economics, healthcare etc.... campaignview.org www.nature.com/articles/s41...

#OpenAccess from August 2025 - Principled Pragmatism: Big Business and Campaign Contributions After January 6 - cup.org/4l99G7Z - @amydmeli.bsky.social & @fgawehns.bsky.social#OpenAccess #Jan6

New paper with @hjghassell.bsky.social and @michaelheseltine.bsky.social out in @bjpols.bsky.social. We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

For the first time ever, Democratic members of Congress are starting to use "overreach" in their constituent newsletters. Republicans very prolific - when they're in the opposition.

Delighted to discover that "Candidate Positions, Responsiveness, and Returns to Extremism" is now available online from JOP 🧵 @thejop.bsky.social Gated: journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... Ungated: mellissameisels.com/files/MM_PCP...

We will accept submissions to the American Trade Policy in the 21st Century special issue until September 1st! An exception for one is an exception for all. #polisky #academisky Learn more here: apsanet.org/publications...

Republican open House seats are tracking the massive 2020 and 2018 years so far. Notably all but one of this year's open GOP seats is due to the member running for Senate or governor. 1/2 Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Big update to @upshot.nytimes.com 2024 precinct map. Now includes most of CA and CO.

Use of "tariffs" in congressional e-newsletters suggests halfhearted Dem messaging on the topic.

I think Altman assumes that “PhD-level expert” means someone who speaks confidently on everything as opposed to saying “it’s nuanced,” losing their keys, and getting maniacally fixated on their current topic to the point of seeing it in everything.

Lots of variation among vulnerable Senate Dems in their propensity to vote with Rs on anything.

New in BJPS: @amydmeli.bsky.social and I investigate how Fortune 500 companies changed their 💰 after Jan 6. We find that they balance the interests of their two audiences by sending signals of disapproval towards those who violate established norms while continuing to lobby key lawmakers.

From @gallup.com: "Americans' average confidence in major U.S. institutions is unchanged since last year, with a near-record-low 28% of U.S. adults expressing 'a great deal' or 'quite a lot' of confidence in nine institutions tracked consistently since 1979." news.gallup.com/poll/692633/...

Dissertation: Defended ✅😊

Interest groups regularly rate lawmakers on issue positions. On Ukraine, GOP members' ratings correlate with their general roll-call ideology on both DW-NOMINATE dimensions (0.66). In contrast, smaller effects for district-level partisanship and seniority, no independent effect for HFC members.

Some thoughts on @goodauth.bsky.social on the war powers. Alternate title: So Much for That Nobel Peace Prize... goodauthority.org/news/trump-i...

It's Schrödinger's War Powers again. Congressional authorization is constitutionally mandated, but also completely optional.

@mattngreen.bsky.social asks, do voters support the GOP's "One Big Beautiful Bill"? And if not, does it matter? open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Zack Elkins (@zachelkins.bsky.social) compiled a wonderful collection of perspectives on academic writing (esp. as a political scientists). I use it often. His page: sites.google.com/site/zachelk... I made a backup here as well, so nothing is lost: github.com/carlislerain...

The "squads" voting behavior is confusing NOMINATE again. Here are the members who are much more "moderate" than their district partisanship would suggest. It's based on Nokken-Poole scores for the 119th, which are calculated new for every Congress. Not a holdover from past Congresses.

In American politics, one is used to see swings of two percentage points as meaningful change. Meanwhile other democracies see swings of 20 points in a matter of weeks. Elections in the rest of the world become more volatile, not less.

FPTP can create wide disparities between seat and vote share. In 11 of the 21 states I could easily access the data for, Rs seat % is lower than their share of the vote in 2024 state elections. In two cases (NV, NC), FPTP inverted the winner! Electoral reform should be a bipartisan issue.

In 2025, roll-call votes in the Senate have on average been *more* partisan than in the House due to several near-unanimous House votes. Senate's median # of yes votes is 52, average is 55. In the House, median is 220 and average 278.

New Cambridge Element 'Congressional Expectations of Presidential Self-Restraint' by Jack B. Greenberg & @johnadearborn.bsky.social is now free to read for 2 weeks. cup.org/4jfas3b #cambridgeelements #politics

Correlation between seniority and NOMINATE (1st dimension) among Republicans is -0.24 (-.0.18 for Dems), with longer serving members being more moderate. Among Dems it's the opposite! Longer serving D Members are somewhat more liberal (aka more ideologically "extreme").

I am grateful that anyone at all is following me on here, & assume maybe most are interested in Dem grassroots activism—in which case I am going to reiterate that @charlotteeffect.bsky.social is must-read: including her recent commentary on this 👀 paper cauldronllc.substack.com/p/the-specte...