New paper with @hjghassell.bsky.social and @michaelheseltine.bsky.social out in @bjpols.bsky.social. We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

For the first time ever, Democratic members of Congress are starting to use "overreach" in their constituent newsletters. Republicans very prolific - when they're in the opposition.

Delighted to discover that "Candidate Positions, Responsiveness, and Returns to Extremism" is now available online from JOP 🧵 @thejop.bsky.social Gated: journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... Ungated: mellissameisels.com/files/MM_PCP...

We will accept submissions to the American Trade Policy in the 21st Century special issue until September 1st! An exception for one is an exception for all. #polisky #academisky Learn more here: apsanet.org/publications...

Republican open House seats are tracking the massive 2020 and 2018 years so far. Notably all but one of this year's open GOP seats is due to the member running for Senate or governor. 1/2 Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Big update to @upshot.nytimes.com 2024 precinct map. Now includes most of CA and CO.

Use of "tariffs" in congressional e-newsletters suggests halfhearted Dem messaging on the topic.

I think Altman assumes that “PhD-level expert” means someone who speaks confidently on everything as opposed to saying “it’s nuanced,” losing their keys, and getting maniacally fixated on their current topic to the point of seeing it in everything.

Lots of variation among vulnerable Senate Dems in their propensity to vote with Rs on anything.

New in BJPS: @amydmeli.bsky.social and I investigate how Fortune 500 companies changed their 💰 after Jan 6. We find that they balance the interests of their two audiences by sending signals of disapproval towards those who violate established norms while continuing to lobby key lawmakers.

From @gallup.com: "Americans' average confidence in major U.S. institutions is unchanged since last year, with a near-record-low 28% of U.S. adults expressing 'a great deal' or 'quite a lot' of confidence in nine institutions tracked consistently since 1979." news.gallup.com/poll/692633/...

Dissertation: Defended ✅😊

Interest groups regularly rate lawmakers on issue positions. On Ukraine, GOP members' ratings correlate with their general roll-call ideology on both DW-NOMINATE dimensions (0.66). In contrast, smaller effects for district-level partisanship and seniority, no independent effect for HFC members.

Some thoughts on @goodauth.bsky.social on the war powers. Alternate title: So Much for That Nobel Peace Prize... goodauthority.org/news/trump-i...

It's Schrödinger's War Powers again. Congressional authorization is constitutionally mandated, but also completely optional.

@mattngreen.bsky.social asks, do voters support the GOP's "One Big Beautiful Bill"? And if not, does it matter? open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

We have explored this too and Ross Perot did not cost Bush the election. In fact, it is likely he drew more from Clinton in many places than from Bush split-ticket.org/2023/04/01/e...

Zack Elkins (@zachelkins.bsky.social) compiled a wonderful collection of perspectives on academic writing (esp. as a political scientists). I use it often. His page: sites.google.com/site/zachelk... I made a backup here as well, so nothing is lost: github.com/carlislerain...

The "squads" voting behavior is confusing NOMINATE again. Here are the members who are much more "moderate" than their district partisanship would suggest. It's based on Nokken-Poole scores for the 119th, which are calculated new for every Congress. Not a holdover from past Congresses.

In American politics, one is used to see swings of two percentage points as meaningful change. Meanwhile other democracies see swings of 20 points in a matter of weeks. Elections in the rest of the world become more volatile, not less.

FPTP can create wide disparities between seat and vote share. In 11 of the 21 states I could easily access the data for, Rs seat % is lower than their share of the vote in 2024 state elections. In two cases (NV, NC), FPTP inverted the winner! Electoral reform should be a bipartisan issue.

In 2025, roll-call votes in the Senate have on average been *more* partisan than in the House due to several near-unanimous House votes. Senate's median # of yes votes is 52, average is 55. In the House, median is 220 and average 278.

New Cambridge Element 'Congressional Expectations of Presidential Self-Restraint' by Jack B. Greenberg & @johnadearborn.bsky.social is now free to read for 2 weeks. cup.org/4jfas3b #cambridgeelements #politics

Correlation between seniority and NOMINATE (1st dimension) among Republicans is -0.24 (-.0.18 for Dems), with longer serving members being more moderate. Among Dems it's the opposite! Longer serving D Members are somewhat more liberal (aka more ideologically "extreme").

I am grateful that anyone at all is following me on here, & assume maybe most are interested in Dem grassroots activism—in which case I am going to reiterate that @charlotteeffect.bsky.social is must-read: including her recent commentary on this 👀 paper cauldronllc.substack.com/p/the-specte...

‘Germany is back’: Merz secures Greens support for defence spend boost

This is out of Kernell et al.'s newest edition of "The Logic of American Politics" textbook I assign regularly in Intro to US Politics. Caption says "Some congressional districts do not hesitate to send and return ideologues to Congress" It suggests equivalence where there is none.

NEW proposal from @leedrutman.bsky.social and Georgetown's Michael A. Bailey: If Democrats are doomed to lose Senate races in red states anyway—b/c the party's brand there is so radioactive—they should consider stepping aside in those states to let a new anti-MAGA party field candidates.

The Guardian view on Merz’s u-turn on debt: Germany responds to the signs of the times | Editorial

There's *a lot going on at the moment* in American politics... Which makes it all the more important to join us next Wednesday, February 19, from *3:30-4:30 PM ET* for the next session on Congress and Foreign Policy featuring @fgawehns.bsky.social! Register here: american.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

The House vote to establish the Department of Education in 1979 was 215-201, with most Republicans in opposition. The 1980 GOP platform called for the elimination of the Department of Education, but it was dropped from the 1984 platform.

One of my students called Britain's unwritten constitution "an extreme form of Marbury vs. Madison" today, and I think that's beautiful.

I'm often assigning this short piece by @smotus.bsky.social when discussing reforms in US politics. But it's difficult to change students' intuition that term limits are a net positive. The "fresh ideas" and "less corruption" narratives are strong. www.mischiefsoffaction.com/post/politic...

April 2024 House no votes on the TikTok Ban: 25 Republicans, 33 Democrats. Passed with 86% support.

“Is it for men [we are doing this], or for the imaginary beings called States?” James Wilson at the Constitutional Convention

This New York Times story about the ascendant Wyoming Freedom Caucus mentions newly-published paper by myself and @fgawehns.bsky.social: www.nytimes.com/2024/12/26/u...

Five minutes on this platform and apparently I need to google Aaron Sorkin...

Who are the 112 Rs voting against expelling Santos? 39/42 HFC members (all but Buck, Green, Murphy), and 71/115 Jan6 objectors. Entire leadership against. 69/90 who voted against the short-term funding bill also voted against expelling Santos.

New here. Good morning.