"...findings indicate that Americans place a premium on political moderation in the House of Representatives, even as they may favor reforms that increase viewpoint diversity—particularly through a limited expansion of the party system." www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

British politics is resembling the rest of Europe: • Multi-party competition has replaced two-party dominance • Challengers are on the rise, esp. the populist right • Political realignment centres on identity politics (incl Brexit) But FPTP is poorly suited to this fragmentation

Fascinating figure from @natesilver.skystack.xyz. 2026 Democratic Senate candidates way younger than 2018.

Drivers of Congressional Behavior: Analyzing Members, Constituents, and Committees With CongressData doi.org/10.1177/1532... Our new article is now available online.

A single chamber of Congress may sue the executive branch: "Ignoring a statutory limitation on appropriations thus nullifies each chamber’s vote, “caus[ing] a concrete and particularized constitutional injury that [each chamber] experiences, and can seek redress for, independently."

Ahead of the United States’ 250th birthday, we identified some prominent trends across key areas of American life: demographics, work, family and economics. Find the full analysis here:

PlanScore just added scenarios to play with the implications of various swings in vote share for US House elections. For instance, it thinks current generic ballot (7 point shift from 2024 = D+5 generic ballot) implies about 230 seats for Democrats. planscore.org#!predict7D-u...

Despite the extensive discourse about the supposed end of manufacturing in Germany’s industrial heartland, the shift toward the AfD among workers remains rather moderate. The vote share in this occupational segment is roughly at the level of 2016.

I coded House Democrats' public statements on 2/28. Few referenced affordability explicitly (things like "health care" "groceries" etc.) or implicitly ("cost us billions" - but not counting "costly war"). Almost everyone referenced congressional authorization. Might change over time.

CQ finds that 2025 was the most partisan year for Congress in the history their roll-call analysis. 85.3% of roll call votes were party unity votes - 70% in the House and 93% in the Senate. Previous record (2-chamber average) was 74.6 percent in 2023. plus.cq.com/doc/news-841...

Wondering where the Trump administration might go next after the SCOTUS ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs? We have a chart for you @bipartisanpolicy.org! Web version here: www.datawrapper.de/_/kvams/?v=5 And thanks to @bbkogan.bsky.social for reminding me to post here more often :)

President's Day reading recommendation: C.W. Goodyear's President Garfield. What a wunderkind Garfield was. A man born to very modest means in Ohio who got an education and rose and rose through hard work and decency. amzn.to/3MsPanC

This is a common pattern over time. Minority party unity is usually lower than the majority party's, because a) they do not control the agenda, and b) their votes often do not determine the outcome, so they have more latitude to vote with their electoral interests.

🚨 NEW from VoteHub: the Trump Score 🚨 Trump's influence over Congress in 2025 was massive. @tsyang27 shows who followed and who defied. In the tradition of FiveThirtyEight’s presidential agreement projects. 🧵

Offering some play-by-play on yesterday‘s unusually long rule vote in the house. My latest on @misofact.bsky.social. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Strong correlation between state partisan lean and how often Democratic senators vote with Trump. Still, considerable variation between (e.g., GA vs. NV) and within (MN, DE, MD) Senate delegations.

Mike Johnson's historically narrow majority isn't the only, or even the biggest, problem he's faced as Speaker. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...

The U.S. Senate infamously operates with a 3/5 threshold to cut off debate. 31 states have no supermajority threshold whatsoever. Seven states have one in both chambers. Data: Curry/Oldham 2025.

By a vote of 52-47, the #Senate agreed to the motion to discharge S.J. Res. 98 War Powers Resolution (Venezuela). GOP senators voting in favor: Collins, Hawley, Murkowski, Paul, and Young. Senators Daines did not vote.

We're excited to release version 1.0 of the Dynamic Democracy website. It includes updated data on state policy, public opinion, mass ideology, and representation. The website enables you to see how these measures are changing overtime across states and within states. www.dynamicdemocracy.us

Official congressional e-newsletters mentioning "Venezuela" over time, by party

My thoughts on the state of House GOP leadership, with data on discharge petitions and links to good stuff from @mattglassman312.bsky.social @joshhuder.bsky.social @sarahbinder.bsky.social & others.

As leadership loses control of the narrative and majority members become increasingly afraid of a wipe-out at the polls due to negative ratings and redistricting, the incentives of the rank-and-file will be to assert their independence. firstbranchforecast.substack.com/p/a-fracturi...

Discharge rule continues campaign for 2025 MVP award🏆! Coalition to extend ACA support hits 218 signatures, matching record 4 "entered" discharge petitions set 90 years ago (1937-8). Speakers today may have peak agenda power, but that's no match for angry 218 (and an organized minority).

Ideological variation within Senate delegations is much greater among Republicans. Nokken-Poole scores for the 118th and 119th Congress show that 18 out of 20 most ideologically diverse same-party Senate delegations are Rs. Top 3 is Lee-Romney, McConnell-Paul, Young-Braun.

The 119 members who co-sponsored Rep. Fitzpatrick's bipartisan Russia sanctions bill are more moderate, more likely to be on Foreign Affairs, and from more competitive districts. BUT the ideological cleavage is much stronger on the Republican side!

The DNC / state parties would have to decide how to handle the results for delegate allocation purposes, but the party itself can't switch state-run primaries to RCV. That would require passing new state laws, or else the party disregarding the primary in favor of some private thing like caucuses.

Maine's four-person Congressional delegation is one of the smallest in the country. Yet their mixed votes on the bill to reopen the government reflect the national divide over the fraught issue. n.pr/4p5VEpY

On passage of the CR in the House: All Republicans "aye" except (voting nay): Thomas Massie (KY) Gregory Steube (FL) All Democrats "nay" except (voting aye) Henry Cuellar (TX) Donald Davis (NC) Jared Golden (ME) Adam Gray (CA) Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA) Thomas Suozzi (NY)

Will be watching how many Dems vote yes, and how many Rs vote no. Of the ten members of the Blue Dog Coalition, only Rep. Mike Thompson came out against the deal so far.

so currently defectors are: Kaine (2030) Shaheen (Retiring) Hasan (2028) Fetterman (2028) Durbin (Retiring) CCM (2028) Rosen (2030) King (2030)

I wonder to what extent senators who are retiring or are far away from primaries agreed to vote for the CR/minibus so that their colleagues, like Sen. Schumer, could vote against.

What's in the Continuing Resolution/ Minibus deal for the Legislative branch? I crunched the numbers, read the bill, and analyzed the committee report. Here's a quick analysis--with the hope that 'quick' and 'analysis' is not an oxymoron. Key takeaway: it doesn't protect the power of the purse.

"Golden got it. Our electoral rules are obsolete. He understood why representatives who don’t fit easily into either party are so rare: the electoral system works against them." leedrutman.substack.com/p/politics-k...

More on diagnosing American politics, and why I am skeptical of simplistic messaging/organizing prescriptions. Presidents Shape Parties More than Parties Shape Presidents – Outside the Beltway outsidethebeltway.com/presidents-s...

I haven't spent a ton of time working through this, but it draws heavily on national party insights to make recommendations for Dem candidates... who are already doing these things? Over three-quarters of Ds discuss economics, healthcare etc.... campaignview.org www.nature.com/articles/s41...

#OpenAccess from August 2025 - Principled Pragmatism: Big Business and Campaign Contributions After January 6 - cup.org/4l99G7Z - @amydmeli.bsky.social & @fgawehns.bsky.social#OpenAccess #Jan6

New paper with @hjghassell.bsky.social and @michaelheseltine.bsky.social out in @bjpols.bsky.social. We develop measures of voter perceptions of candidate ideology and candidate messaging ideology and find that perception's are related to what candidates say www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

For the first time ever, Democratic members of Congress are starting to use "overreach" in their constituent newsletters. Republicans very prolific - when they're in the opposition.

Delighted to discover that "Candidate Positions, Responsiveness, and Returns to Extremism" is now available online from JOP 🧵 @thejop.bsky.social Gated: journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... Ungated: mellissameisels.com/files/MM_PCP...

We will accept submissions to the American Trade Policy in the 21st Century special issue until September 1st! An exception for one is an exception for all. #polisky #academisky Learn more here: apsanet.org/publications...

Republican open House seats are tracking the massive 2020 and 2018 years so far. Notably all but one of this year's open GOP seats is due to the member running for Senate or governor. 1/2 Data: docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Big update to @upshot.nytimes.com 2024 precinct map. Now includes most of CA and CO.

Use of "tariffs" in congressional e-newsletters suggests halfhearted Dem messaging on the topic.

I think Altman assumes that “PhD-level expert” means someone who speaks confidently on everything as opposed to saying “it’s nuanced,” losing their keys, and getting maniacally fixated on their current topic to the point of seeing it in everything.

Lots of variation among vulnerable Senate Dems in their propensity to vote with Rs on anything.

New in BJPS: @amydmeli.bsky.social and I investigate how Fortune 500 companies changed their 💰 after Jan 6. We find that they balance the interests of their two audiences by sending signals of disapproval towards those who violate established norms while continuing to lobby key lawmakers.

From @gallup.com: "Americans' average confidence in major U.S. institutions is unchanged since last year, with a near-record-low 28% of U.S. adults expressing 'a great deal' or 'quite a lot' of confidence in nine institutions tracked consistently since 1979." news.gallup.com/poll/692633/...

Dissertation: Defended ✅😊

Interest groups regularly rate lawmakers on issue positions. On Ukraine, GOP members' ratings correlate with their general roll-call ideology on both DW-NOMINATE dimensions (0.66). In contrast, smaller effects for district-level partisanship and seniority, no independent effect for HFC members.