Mike Johnson's historically narrow majority isn't the only, or even the biggest, problem he's faced as Speaker. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...

NEW: Senior Fellow @joshhuder.bsky.social writes about the challenges to Mike Johnson's speakership: logistical, political, personal and structural gai.georgetown.edu/nobody-knows...

This is patently absurd but if it were true, he's suggesting AI is a critical and possibly unrecoverable blow to the U.S. economy, deficit, debt, and more... which isn't a great argument.

Partisan floor demands have derailed several committees' work this Congress. There's a decent argument to be made that with less stringent partisan requirements/demands for floor consideration, the institution wouldn't be as bottled up. www.notus.org/congress/hou...

On the latest DDHQ podcast, we explored the chaotic U.S. House of Representatives. Guest Joshua Huder highlighted how internal conflicts within both parties have made it harder to manage the House — currently Speaker Mike Johnson's problem. Watch here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/house-of-r...

More interesting story is the retirements of several long-serving Democrats this year. We’re seeing a generational turnover among House Democrats who were once the backbone of the party. Congress is old but that is far more interesting to legislative politics than 2-3% who might return.

This process looks more like Trump 1.0 when Congress ignored steep cuts proposed by the admin. However, Democrats appear to have capitulated more this time, allowing sizable cuts and jettisoning language restricting impoundments or RIFs.

This piece nicely reiterates the imperatives of inclusion for democracy to endure. Though, I admit, I'm saddened tolerance has fallen so far from mainstream (lowercase-l) liberalism that pieces like this are necessary. ryandenos.substack.com/p/the-future...

Important @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social piece. Sometimes it feels like Trump's actions are just extensions of previous presidential acts. But Jonathan makes an important point that Trump's acts are often far worse. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/worse-than...

My thoughts on the state of House GOP leadership, with data on discharge petitions and links to good stuff from @mattglassman312.bsky.social @joshhuder.bsky.social @sarahbinder.bsky.social & others.

My take on why Mike Johnson's speakership is one of the most fraught in recent and not so recent memory. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...

Julia Azari: the impeachments of Trump and Johnson, and the near-impeachment of Nixon “have a number of strong and striking parallels. The factor I focus on is race: how each of these presidents follow one who breaks with the confines of the racial status quo.” open.substack.com/pub/donmoyni...

The NDAA carries language restricting the Hegseth's travel budget until DoD provides reports and documents on a variety of issues. As @jamiedupree.bsky.social notes, this language isn't that uncommon, particularly when committees lose patience with agencies. But it often flies under the radar.

wrote about the boat strikes, and people’s skepticism that Hegseth will face consequences. the thing is…the bipartisan congressional pushback is already a consequence. it damages hegseth personally and politically and may restrain policy. www.everythingishorrible.net/p/will-hegse...

Blocking the transmission of legislation is among the worst abuses of power by any Speaker in House history. It's become very common under Johnson.

1st: This would be among the most dramatic events in US history. 2nd: I'm very skeptical resignations force a transfer of power. 3rd: If discontent is this widespread why has House done almost nothing to push back? 4th: Johnson... no bueno. Likely hyperbole but not a good look regardless.

Mike Johnson announces, as emperor, that he has no clothes. It's not often the emperor makes this confession, but it is 2025 so anything goes. www.axios.com/2025/11/21/m...

Trump never had total control. It's easy to overlook his failure on recess appointments, the Dept of "War," most budget cuts, among many, many others. When he asks, he often does not receive. What's increasingly slipped is his ability to prevent resistance to unilateral acts.

There is quite a bit of Republican pushback to Trump's attempt to gut the Department of Education, not just from moderates but from the Appropriations subcommittee chair.

How's Mike Johnson's speakership going? Well, his members don't trust he'll do his job and transmit the Epstein bill to the Senate after it passes. So there's that.

If you can't stop a bill from passing but want the Senate to ignore it, you try to keep passage below 2/3rds (290).* If >300 members vote to release the Epstein files, the Senate will have an awful hard time ignoring it.

The minority party can and did shut down the government under the existing Senate rules and precedents. The system described below does not exist (yet). This view casually dismisses the intercurrence sustaining the filibuster and the politics necessary to facilitate historic change in Congress.

Matt makes a critical point. The pain of the shutdown was seriously ramping up while pressure on Republicans had yet to really build. They were losing in polls but not by a margin that would cause them to abandon Trump or Thune. Very skeptical Dems would have won much more by holding out longer.

Can't be certain of the full story for each of the eight Dems. I'm more certain that Schumer prefers to let us believe that he orchestrated or at least allowed the outcome than that he failed to keep his party united.

Democrats over-performed during the shutdown, polled well, and won elections. However, an ACA deal, nuclear Senate, or impoundment rules were a big stretch, at best, and mostly not feasible. More shutdown and "trying harder" can't change Republican majorities. joshhuder.substack.com/p/an-entirel...

My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...

Are Democrats supposed to keep the government closed forever? A minority party cannot force the majority to act responsibly.

No party that ever started a shutdown won it. It's a little shocking how many people genuinely believed Dems could win policy concessions. Democrats caved because their phones were likely ringing off the hooks from people without paychecks, food assistance, the ability to travel safely, etc.

Leaders don't have this kind of power. They do not direct senators' votes. They can pressure or persuade but this notion Schumer can block senators from breaking ranks is pure myth.

Republicans won't nuke the filibuster because they don't want to vote much (most?) of Trump's agenda. Why go on the record about unpopular policies when you can silently kill them instead?

Look, Pelosi was a great leader but that included a ruthless streak that mired numerous political careers to stay on top for over 20 years and in office for almost 40. If you want members genuinely enabling the next generation, write about Ed Perlmutter or Charlie Dent.

When Nancy Pelosi stepped down as Speaker I was asked to evaluate her time as leader, which was really exciting until the scope and scale of that task began to settle in. Put simply, she is among the greatest speakers in House history. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...

If by guardian, he means literally removing the House of Representatives' from any governing role on tariffs and other matters, sure. Maybe somebody in the universe can remember a speaker who was more pliant to the President than Mike Johnson, but I can't.

Senator Tuberville has made some pretty epic tactical blunders during his time in the Senate. But, he gets this one spot on: Americans do not care about Senate rules. Nuking the filibuster wouldn't create the uproar many Democrats assume. But Republicans won't do it anyway.

Look, I love polling, considerably more than most people. But if you start crafting an agenda from what polls well, rather than starting with what a better world looks like, one that connects to the general public's needs, and how you get from here to there, then you have no business in politics

Since 1980, winning a popular vote majority in presidential elections is fairly rare. Democrats only won it 3 times in 45 years. If you zoom out, neither party is particularly popular. Any critique of one party's policy platform easily applies to the other.

Who is staffing this anonymous Republican senator who claims Congress doesn't have a role in deciding what constitutes an emergency? This gets a big 'F' in my class. www.semafor.com/article/10/2...

New Congress, Two Beers In! We discuss the shutdown, Congress’s spending power, enduring constitutional fights, the Epstein files, and Rep-Elect Grijalva. Listen here! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

The separation of powers rests not solely on politicians wanting power, but politicians wanting power because their constituent and political interests differ from other branches. The nationalization of politics has significantly undercut these differences between local/national constituencies.

Substack has reinvigorated long-form blogging, which has been great. On the other hand, I think it's really hurt opinion writing. It's been discouraging to watch writers I really respected post borderline-derogatory slop about people, parties, ideologies, etc.

Mike Johnson is the elected leader of the House of Representatives but he wouldn't have the job nor can he pass significant bills without Trump's help swaying HFC-types. It's not a recipe for tight constitutional constraints when the leader of a rival institution is too weak to perform his job.

Some quick thoughts on Democrats' surprising early-polling advantage. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...

What an icon. I was going take my daughter to her talk next week. Very sad news. www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2...

As a reminder, doing the work necessary to conduct RIFs during a shutdown is illegal

Are Democrats doomed to lose the shutdown? Probably. They want a bold public argument to justify their shutdown but their leaders struggle to deliver that leadership. This is a feature of congressional leadership. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...

The irony is Democrats could make an unpopular President more popular by shutting down the government in an effort to highlight his unpopular policies.

Threatening a very unpopular thing to scare Democrats off a shutdown may backfire. The biggest shutdown downside (of many) is potentially galvanizing Republicans behind Trump. But that could be blunted if the admin decides on executing very unpopular things. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

For majority members, discharge petitions signal the intensity of their support. It's not unusual for them to face (often immense) pressure from leaders. It is unusual when petitions succeed in the face of that pressure. In this case, leadership looks beat. www.semafor.com/article/09/2...

A gov't shutdown is below the fold news today and for good reason after Kimmel was pulled from the air. Nonetheless, internal Democratic politics looks like it may force their leaders into a shutdown. politicalwire.com/2025/09/17/c...