Cassidy was always in a tough spot. Pro-impeachment Republicans who've run in party primaries have all been doomed. That bodes poorly for Cassidy's chances in a runoff vs. either Julia Letlow or John Fleming — if he even advances out of the primary. #LASen

This week, the DDHQ Podcast chatted 2026 governors with Lou Jacobson from @politifact.bsky.social. One under-watched race is Georgia. Democrats might have a real chance, but their candidate field is hard to pin down. The GOP is likely headed to a runoff. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/2026-gover...

A new Quantus Insights survey found Thomas Massie up 47%-38% over Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein. Massie won renomination with 75% in 2024, and has always cleared that mark since first winning the seat in 2012. But it looks like he's going to be in a close one on May 19 against Gallrein.

In Wisconsin's Supreme Court race, Chris Taylor won by 20 points, the largest margin for a liberal candidate over the past two decades. She was helped by Democratic enthusiasm but also lower turnout among Republicans, as suggested by lower turnout vs. 2023-25. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/606147

In this week's polling memo: Polls in North Carolina's Senate race. Ex-Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leads, but ex-RNC Chair Michael Whatley (R) won't be a pushover in a state where the GOP usually wins. #NCSen Plus: Updates on Trump's approval & other 2026 races. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-...

Democrats vastly overperformed in both of last night's marquee elections: #GA14: 25-point swing to Democrats from the 2024 presidential election. #WISC: 10-point swing from last Wisconsin Supreme Court election.

Decision Desk HQ projects Chris Taylor wins the Wisconsin State Supreme Court #DecisionMade: 9:26 PM EDT

First results in: DDHQ Race Update (est. 0% in): Wisconsin State Supreme Court Chris Taylor (N): 1,666 (55.6%) Maria Lazar (N): 1,333 (44.5%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/606147

Decision Desk HQ projects Clayton Fuller wins the Georgia US House 14 Special Election Runoff #DecisionMade: 8:03 PM EDT Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/606704

First votes in from #GA14: DDHQ Race Update (est. 0% in): Georgia US House 14 Special Election Runoff Shawn Harris (D): 166 (61.7%) Clayton Fuller (R): 103 (38.3%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/606704

Did you know? You can create custom watchlists that contain all of the races you want to follow, in one easy-to-find location. Try it out on Votes!

NEW Votes Feature:  County level AB/EV data for state legislative, congressional and statewide elections!  Check it out here

It's election night, and we're following thousands of elections in Georgia, Missouri, and Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, the marquee race is the nonpartisan State Supreme Court election. Liberal-leaning candidate Chris Taylor has massively outspent her rival. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/606147

Yes, Clinton & Harris lost, but in close races. Different circumstances (and women candidates) could produce a win for a woman nominee in 2028. Take a counterfactual: If Clinton beat Obama for the Dem nomination in 2008, she also would've defeated McCain.

President Trump endorsed Steve Hilton (R) in California's gubernatorial race. This could move GOP voters to Hilton & reduce chance of a top-two primary lockout for Democrats. After all, Hilton and Chad Bianco (R) are currently 1st-2nd in DDHQ's polling average. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/1354

DDHQ's weekly newsletter looks at why a woman could win the 2028 presidential election. Yes, women lost in 2016 and 2024, but that's a sample size of 2. There's more to consider, including candidate qualities and fundamentals like economic conditions + presidential approval.

Our North Carolina Senate polling average is live. Currently, Democrat Roy Cooper holds a 10-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley. Find this and more polling averages at Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/478

As President Trump plans to address the nation tonight, his approval rating has dropped below 40% in DDHQ's approval average for the 1st time during his 2nd term. Our latest poll memo takes a look at Trump's approval & a bunch of 2026 races.

It's election night, and we're following over 40 races. In Arkansas, there are primary runoffs for dozens of races, including the Republican Secretary of State primary. There's also a legislative election in Massachusetts. Follow along at Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com

Our latest polling average in the Texas Republican Senate Primary Runoff has Attorney General Ken Paxton nearing a five-point lead over incumbent Senator John Cornyn. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/polls/1454

In this week's DDHQ newsletter: How Democrats could get 🔒locked out🔒 of the #CAGov general election. A Dem lockout = a perfect storm involving the top-two primary system, a crowded field of middle-tier Democratic contenders & 2 prominent GOP candidates.

On this week's DDHQ Podcast, @erincovey.bsky.social from @cookpolitical.com joined to talk about 2026's under-the-radar House races. Cook recently rated #TX23 as somewhat competitive, so we talked about how the race between guninfluencer Brandon Herrera (R) & Katy Padilla Stout (D) gets close.

Ohio has lost its swing state luster in recent years. But O-H-I-O is a major battleground in 2026. Both big OH races look competitive: #OHSen: Sen. Jon Husted (R) vs ex-Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) #OHGov: Vivek Ramaswamy (R) vs Amy Acton (D) Read more in DDHQ's new polling memo:

Tonight has seen several close elections in Florida. In State House District 87 - home to Mar-a-Lago - Democrat Emily Gregory is projected to defeat Republican Jon Maples. Trump carried this district by 11 points in 2024. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/606146

It's another Election Night, and we're tracking five municipal elections as well as three state legislative elections in Florida. State House District 87 notably includes President Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort. Follow all the live results on Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/rac...

Some lunchtime reading! This week's DDHQ newsletter looked at: -Democratic-held seats the GOP can target in its effort to keep the House -Republican-held seats Dems hope to flip if 2026 turns into a blue wave year Read the newsletter here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...

This week's DDHQ newsletter: -Which blue seats could the GOP flip to keep the House? Best targets are in red states that redistricted. -Which red seats could Democrats flip to make a blue wave happen? Some Trump-won, medium-red seats could be in play in 2026.

DDHQ spoke with Lakshya Jain about what he's found in The Argument's polling in the past few months. The GOP will lose some voters in '26 who are unhappy with Trump, but the GOP coalition has many voters who just won't show up for a midterm. That could boost Dems in November.

The Illinois Democratic Senate primary shows a clear regional divide - Juliana Stratton led in almost all of the state's major cities, while Raja Krishnamoorthi did best in the north and western Chicago suburbs, as well as northwestern Illinois. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242554

What happened last night? DDHQ takes you through the Illinois primary results. -Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton won #ILSen Democratic primary -AIPAC, spending through 4 affiliated groups, batted .500 in 4 Democratic House primaries -Mixed bag for crypto- & AI-backed groups

Darren Bailey won the Illinois Republican gubernatorial primary, but there was a clear divide between Chicagoland and downstate. Bailey trails Ted Dabrowski - a resident of Cook County - in Cook, DuPage, and Lake counties. votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/243897

Decision Desk HQ projects John Elleson wins the Illinois US House 9 Republican Primary #DecisionMade: 11:17 PM EDT Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242571

Decision Desk HQ projects Margaret Croke wins the Illinois Comptroller Democratic Primary #DecisionMade: 11:12 PM EDT Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/243902

Decision Desk HQ projects Melissa Bean wins the Illinois US House 8 Democratic Primary #DecisionMade: 10:57 PM EDT Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242570

Decision Desk HQ projects Diane Harris to win the Illinois Secretary of State Republican Primary. #DecisionMade: 10:32 PM EDT

Decision Desk HQ projects Daniel Biss to win the Illinois US House 9 Democratic Primary. #DecisionMade: 10:39 PM EDT

Decision Desk HQ projects Juliana Stratton wins the Illinois US Senate Democratic Primary #DecisionMade: 10:20 PM EDT Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242554

Decision Desk HQ projects Jennifer Davis wins the Illinois US House 8 Republican Primary #DecisionMade: 10:08 PM EDT Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242569

DDHQ Race Update (est. 88% in): Illinois US House 8 Republican Primary Jennifer Davis (R): 12,696 (51.3%) Mark Rice (R): 9,997 (40.4%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242569

Decision Desk HQ projects Don Tracy wins the Illinois US Senate Republican Primary #DecisionMade: 9:22 PM EDT Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242553

Decision Desk HQ projects Darren Bailey wins the Illinois Governor Republican Primary #DecisionMade: 9:20 PM EDT Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/243897

Decision Desk HQ projects Donna Miller wins the Illinois US House 2 Democratic Primary #DecisionMade: 9:08 PM EDT Follow live results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242558

DDHQ Race Update (est. 23% in): Illinois Governor Republican Primary Ted Dabrowski (R): 44,079 (40.6%) Darren Bailey (R): 42,599 (39.2%) Rick Heidner (R): 12,162 (11.2%) James Mendrick (R): 9,726 (9.0%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/243897

DDHQ Race Update (est. 45% in): Illinois US House 7 Democratic Primary La Shawn Ford (D): 12,543 (24.0%) Melissa Conyears-Ervin (D): 10,602 (20.3%) Anthony Driver (D): 6,063 (11.6%) Kina Collins (D): 4,532 (8.7%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242568

DDHQ Race Update (est. 50% in): Illinois US House 9 Democratic Primary Daniel Biss (D): 20,881 (32.0%) Laura Fine (D): 15,316 (23.5%) Kat Abughazaleh (D): 13,890 (21.3%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242572

DDHQ Race Update (est. 39% in): Illinois US House 8 Republican Primary Jennifer Davis (R): 5,611 (51.4%) Mark Rice (R): 4,423 (40.5%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242569

DDHQ Race Update (est. 2% in): Illinois US House 17 Republican Primary Dillan Vancil (R): 382 (57.5%) Julie Bickelhaupt (R): 282 (42.5%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242587

DDHQ Race Update (est. 32% in): Illinois US House 8 Democratic Primary Melissa Bean (D): 9,924 (33.4%) Junaid Ahmed (D): 7,197 (24.2%) Dan Tully (D): 3,778 (12.7%) Kevin Morrison (D): 3,017 (10.2%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242570

DDHQ Race Update (est. 23% in): Illinois US House 2 Democratic Primary Donna Miller (D): 8,742 (41.4%) Jesse Jackson (D): 6,482 (30.7%) Yumeka Brown (D): 2,377 (11.3%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242558

DDHQ Race Update (est. 18% in): Illinois US House 1 Republican Primary Christian Maxwell (R): 1,778 (65.1%) Marcus Lewis (R): 954 (34.9%) Follow more results here: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242555