This week's DDHQ newsletter looks at the House playing field and identifies 45 districts that are likely to determine the House majority in 2026. Read here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...

This week's DDHQ Podcast is a Redistricting Refresher with @geoffreyskelley.com & @baseballot.bsky.social. What map changes are happening? What could the Dem/GOP gains be? One wrinkle is that parties aren't always respecting the reality that the other side will eventually have a good year!

In this week's polling memo, DDHQ looks at Kamala Harris's favorability. While negative overall, she's very well-liked by Democrats and leads early 2028 primary polls. Also: updates on Trump's approval, right/wrong track & generic ballot. Read more: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/kamala-har...

This evening, DDHQ will release its weekly polling memo. We look at Kamala Harris's favorability & early presidential primary polls. Also, updates on Trump's approval, right/wrong track & generic ballot. Sign up here to get it in your inbox: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome

It's election night, and we're following 70+ elections across Georgia, Florida, Iowa, South Carolina, and Wisconsin. The marquee race is the runoff special election in Georgia's State Senate District 18, a seat Republicans are likely to hold. election-night.decisiondeskh...

DDHQ's newsletter on Presidents' Day looked at Gallup's less-than-timely decision to cease measuring presidential approval. The absence of Gallup could very subtly boost Trump's approval average; Gallup was consistently on his low end. Read more here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/end-of-gal...

This weeks DDHQ newsletter dives into Gallup's decision to end its presidential approval polling.📉🪦 What this means for understanding American politics and the broader history of polling. Read it here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/end-of-gal...

In our Monday newsletter, DDHQ will take a look at Gallup’s decision to stop polling presidential approval and what it means for understanding American politics. If you'd like to get our newsletter in your inbox on Monday morning, please subscribe here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome

New DDHQ Podcast: Mary Radcliffe from @fiftyplusone.news joined us to talk about President Trump's approval rating. There's been a lot of coverage of his decline among young men, but he's been losing ground among most groups. Watch/listen here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/trump-appr...

Later today: DDHQ's podcast dug into Trump's approval with Mary Radcliffe from @fiftyplusone.news. For all the focus on him losing ground w/ young men, his ratings have worsened w/ most groups. Subscribe to get the pod in your inbox & enjoy some approval nuance: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome

In DDHQ's latest polling memo: -Texas GOP primary for Senate: Sen. John Cornyn trails state AG Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt isn't far behind. Cornyn could even finish 3rd & miss runoff. -Pres. Trump's approval/disapproval is about 42%/54% Read more: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/could-john...

Tonight, we're tracking 121 elections across the country - including 108 in Oklahoma alone. There are three state legislative special elections tonight, two in northern Virginia and one in Oklahoma. Follow all of them at the link below: election-night.decisiondeskh...

Sen. Susan Collins (R) formally announced that she's running for reelection in #MESen. She is the only Republican senator from a state carried by Kamala Harris in '24. Collins easily gives the GOP its best chance of holding onto what is a must-win seat for Democrats in 2026.

In this week's DDHQ newsletter, a look at the proposed Democratic gerrymanders in VA & MD. The maps could mean the 2 states might have just 1 GOP rep combined, down from 6. GOP members of Congress would not, in fact, be all that welcome.

It's another election night, and we're tracking eight races. The marquee race is a special election in Louisiana's 60th State House District. Rs hope to flip this Trump+14 district, which previously re-elected a Democrat unopposed. Follow at the link: election-night.decisiondeskh...

Coming up in DDHQ's Monday newsletter, The Bellwether: A look at the proposed redistricting plans in Virginia & Maryland, how they could affect the midterms & their chances of taking effect. Subscribe here to get it in your inbox around 8am! decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome

On the DDHQ Podcast, @taniel.bsky.social from @boltsmag.org reviewed the prosecutor & sheriff elections happening in 2026. Some sheriff races to watch are in places that Trump lost in '24 but that are working with ICE through the 287(g) program. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-16...

An update on our projection for the Democratic primary in New Jersey's 11th congressional district.

DDHQ Race Update (est. 32.3% in): New Jersey US House 11 Democratic Special Election Primary Tom Malinowski (D) - 5,001 (31.6%) Analilia Mejia (D) - 3,527 (22.3%) Brendan Gill (D) - 3,388 (21.4%) Tahesha Way (D) - 2,294 (14.5%) Follow more results here: election-night.decisiondeskh...

DDHQ Podcast had @taniel.bsky.social of @boltsmag.org on to talk prosecutor & sheriff elections. These posts can be stepping stones to higher office, and campaigns now have systematic debates over criminal justice & policing policies. Check it out: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-16...

We're following tonight's Democratic primary in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District. The winner will be the favorite to hold this Harris+8 district in April's special election. Follow along tonight at the link below: election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-02...

Out this afternoon: The DDHQ Podcast spoke with @taniel.bsky.social about 2026's elections for sheriff & prosecutor. Roughly 2,400 of these under-the-radar contests are happening, all with major policy implications. Subscribe here to receive it in your inbox: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome

In the 2026 race for the House, Democrats consistently lead Republicans by ~5 points. A big part of that? Independents prefer Dems by a big margin. Losing indies has often been a midterm problem for the president's party. Read DDHQ's polling memo: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-...

Happy Election Day! DDHQ is tracking results for 20 races this evening. Marquee race: NY Assembly District 36 vote to succeed Zohran Mamdani. DSA member Diana Moreno (D) is favored but faces 2 DSA compatriots running as indies. Follow results here: election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-02...

At 6pm, DDHQ will release its latest Polling Memo. The writeup includes: -What the Democrats' lead on the generic ballot could mean for the 2026 House race -Updates on Trump's approval and many 2026 races To get the memo in your inbox, subscribe here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome

ICYMI the DDHQ newsletter looked at how the 2030 apportionment could help Republicans more than Democrats. States that voted for Trump in '24 will gain 10 electoral votes; Democratic linchpins of CA (-4) & NY (-2) are projected to lose seats.

This week's DDHQ newsletter: Why Democrats will lose ground in the 2030 census📉 Projections show blue states will lose seats in next apportionment, costing Dems more electoral votes than the GOP. Biggest changes? Texas +4 & California -4. Read more: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/democrats-...

‪Decision Desk HQ projects Christian Menefee to win the US House special election in Texas's 18th congressional district. #DecisionMade: 10:59 pm ET

DDHQ Race Update (est. 46% in): Texas US House 18 Runoff Christian Menefee (D): 9,077 (66.7%) Amanda Edwards (D): 4,544 (33.4%) Follow more results here: election-night.decisiondeskh...

DDHQ Race Update (est. 46% in): Texas State Senate 9 Runoff Taylor Rehmet (D): 25,667 (56.2%) Leigh Wambsganss (R): 19,979 (43.8%) Follow more results here: zurl.co/mT4Pn

Tonight, we're tracking eight elections in Texas. The marquee race is the runoff election in Texas's 18th Congressional District. Two Democrats vying to replace the late Sylvester Turner in this Houston-based district. Follow at the link below: election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-01...

Winner of #TX18 runoff tomorrow will further narrow GOP's House majority. After the winner (a Dem) is sworn in, GOP will have 218-214 edge (w/ 3 vacancies). Granted, another gov shutdown could make it easier for Mike Johnson to delay swearing in the winner, as happened with Adelita Grijalva.

On the DDHQ Podcast, @gracepanetta.bsky.social joined to talk Senate races. A growing split among Democrats is "Abolish *Trump's* ICE" vs. outright "Abolish ICE." This came up recently on the debate stage in the #ILSen Dem primary. Check out the pod here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/senate-wom...

DDHQ Podcast welcomed @gracepanetta.bsky.social to chat about 2026 Senate races with high-profile women candidates. One is #TXSen, where Dems are split on Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who has given fuel to her "electability" detractors. Watch/listen here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/senate-wom...

Later today, DDHQ will release a new podcast where @geoffreyskelley.com & @gracepanetta.bsky.social discuss Senate races with high-profile women candidates. They covered Maine, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa & more! Subscribe to get it in your inbox later today! decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is officially running for governor of her home state. She is the 4th sitting senator to make a run for governor in 2026, the most in the era of popular elections for Senate (since 1913). #MNGov decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/greener-pa...

In this week's DDHQ Polling Memo: -Trump's approval continues to hover in one of its worst spots in his 2nd term -Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi leads Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton 36%-16% in the Illinois Dem primary for Senate Read more here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/illinois-d...

Tonight, we're tracking six elections across the United States. In Minnesota, a special election is being held in State House 64A. Democrats are heavily favored to win, which would return the State House to a 67-67 tie. Follow along at the link: election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-01...

ICYMI yesterday: DDHQ's latest newsletter took a look at how Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy is in deep trouble down on the Bayou after President Trump endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow in the GOP primary. #LASen You can read it here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/trump-letl...

Baby, it's cold outside, but things are heating up ♨️ in Louisiana for Bill Cassidy. Trump endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow over Cassidy in the #LASen GOP primary & now the incumbent might be boiled shrimp 🦐 in 2026. DDHQ's newsletter breaks things down: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/trump-letl...

On this week's DDHQ podcast, @geoffreyvs & @stranter spoke with @emckowndawson about the 2025 polls & looked ahead to 2026. Polls undershot Trump in recent pres races, but were closer to the mark in midterms or even overestimated GOP. Watch/listen here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/pollapaloo...

Publishing this afternoon: the DDHQ podcast spoke with Silver Bulletin's Eli McKown-Dawson about how well the polls did in 2025 & had a broader convo about the state of polling! To receive the pod in your inbox, please subscribe here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome

DDHQ has a new polling average for South Carolina's GOP primary for governor. The 4 main contenders are all between 10-20%, with Rep. Nancy Mace & state AG Alan Wilson both around 19%. The race may well depend on Trump's endorsement (if he does). decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/no-clear-f...

Tonight, we're tracking six legislative and local races across the United States. You can find all the results at the link below. In Georgia's 18th State Senate District, a Trump+22 seat, five Republicans and one Democrat are on the ballot. election-night.decisiondeskhq.com/date/2026-01...

ICYMI yesterday, this week's DDHQ newsletter covered 10 big elections to watch in the first three months of 2026. One of them is the #GA14 special on March 10 to fill the seat vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/10-big-ele...

In this week's DDHQ newsletter, @geoffreyskelley.com runs through 10 key elections to watch in the first 3 months of 2026. On the list is the March 10 special election for Marjorie Taylor Greene's former seat, Georgia's 14th District. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/10-big-ele...

On the latest DDHQ podcast, we explored the chaotic U.S. House of Representatives. Guest Joshua Huder highlighted how internal conflicts within both parties have made it harder to manage the House — currently Speaker Mike Johnson's problem. Watch here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/house-of-r...

ICYMI This week's DDHQ newsletter looked at all the senators running for governor in 2026. There could be a record-setting 4 who seek to leave DC and go home to govern, including Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/greener-pa...

This week's DDHQ newsletter looks at sitting senators running for governor. Total of 3 have launched bids, while Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) is considering. If she runs, 4 senators running for governor will be most ever in an election cycle from 1913-now. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/greener-pa...

If Klobuchar runs for #MNGov, she'll be the 4th sitting senator to run for governor in 2026 — most in any election from 1914-now. @geoffreyvs will have more in tomorrow morning's DDHQ newsletter. You can get it in your inbox by signing up for FREE here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome