Happy New Year, everyone! Wishing you a fantastic 2026! 🎆🎉🍾

Snow squalls may result in hazardous driving conditions across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on New Year's Eve (tomorrow) during the evening and overnight hours. This is in addition to heavy lake effect snow and light snow throughout the region over the next few days.

Flash Flood Warnings now in effect for most of SoCal Transverse Ranges as powerful storm slowly into the region. Rainfall has been torrential already in Santa Barbara/Ventura counties, but mostly light in LA. That will change soon, and flood risk will sharply rise. #CAwx

Here is the latest update from WPC on the California atmospheric river event where a moderate to high risk of flash flooding is anticipated for southern California on Wednesday Christmas Eve. Please stay safe through the upcoming Christmas holiday. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages...

A rare High Risk has been issued: "This will pose a significant threat of flash flooding, landslides, rock falls & mud slides. The greater than normal travel during the Christmas Holiday will potentially expose a larger number of people to these life threatening hazards." -NWS Forecast Discussion

The localized but very serious flash flood event ongoing in/near Redding, CA may escalate yet further, with a narrow line of torrential downpours along persistent convergence line re-developing yet again over same area. Widespread inundation & swift water rescues ongoing. #CAwx

This entire train got blown over this morning northwest of Cheyenne

Done. Let me know what you think? 🤔 WARM WATER SKY, 16x16”, Acrylic

BIG NEWS TO SHARE! 🌎💙🙌🏻

Exploring the Garden of Lights with my Mom this year! 🎄

You may have seen a "GraphCast-GFS" model on some real-time websites - development on that model at NOAA has now led to the "AI-GFS" model which is scheduled to become operational on December 17th. Output from the AI-GFS model is now available on PolarWx: polarwx.com/models/?mode...

This is U N B E L I E V A B L E. #Kilauea

Be careful out there this evening! ⚠️❄️ Temps are in the 20s to near 30, and a light mist is falling — enough to create a deceptive, dangerous glaze on untreated surfaces. Take it slow on sidewalks and roads, especially ramps, bridges, and overpasses. 🛑🚶‍♂️🚗

Considerable flooding is possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest next week. Keep up to date with the latest forecast at weather.gov.

Going to focus more on obs and hi-res guidance up until go time, but GEFS ensembles members have trended upwards recently and I'm digging that most members are now above 0.4" QPF! Should be a beneficial event for the Front Range Urban Corridor. We need it.

Excited to share that I am this year's recipient of the Outstanding Early Career Award from the AMS STAC Committee on Probability and Statistics! Thank you to those who nominated me and chose me for this award! I am honored! 🌎

My painting HIGH PLAINS STORM One of only 3 original paintings I have available.

Stunning lenticular #cloud over Mt. Washington #NHwx today!

Here's a beauty from @dcstormchaser.bsky.social:

This gives me joy. 😂🫠😉

La Niña, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the potential for a rare November Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (you're likely to have heard of this referred to as the "polar vortex") may combine to drive winter-like conditions across much of the U.S. late November into early December.

I have been waiting for this documentary to come out for 25 years. Literally. So happy! 🙌🏻

Currently above Michigan!

My shot of tonight's aurora from Manchester, MD.

The CPL Final is in the middle of a snowstorm in Canada, true North American soccer heritage...how could it get any better? HOW ABOUT A FREAKIN' BICYCLE KICK EQUALIZER!!!

Today, a few friends and I were lucky enough to see the Washington Spirit win in penalties in front of a sold-out, post-season crowd at Audi Field! Perfect soccer weather. One of my favorite days in a long time! ⚽️🙌🏻

Alrighty, ready to see something really cool? (and maybe a little nauseating) The evolution of Hurricane Melissa's mesovortices at peak strength.

Hurricanes feed off of warm water. Watch how quickly the eye of #Melissa collapsed as it moved onto land and over the mountainous terrain of Jamaica, and how quickly it is reforming now that it has moved back over water! I will be adding this radar loop to my earth science lectures.

Obvious wavenumber-5 mesovortex pattern within #Melissa’s eyewall earlier today — when the simulation matches reality. Just two decades ago, the very existence of mesovortices was still a matter of debate.

1-minute #GOES19/#GOESEast Visible images showed that soon after making landfall, the eye of Hurricane #Melissa became cloud-filled as the storm interacted with higher terrain on the western edge of Jamaica.

From a crewmember on yesterday's Teal 74 mission into now-Category 5 Hurricane #Melissa. As clear of an eye as you will see in the Atlantic basin.

5:40 PM EDT, 10/26: #HurricaneMelissa has a 6 nm eye, central pressure has recently fallen 12 mb, and maximum sustained winds are now 145 MPH. #StadiumEffect #HurricaneSeason2025 #Jamaica

The perfect fall day for a long walk along the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal! 🌾🍂🍄

We had some perfect fall weather this weekend! 🍂🌾

One spot, four stories

Energy from Typhoon Halong near Japan may amplify the jet steam (excite the storm track) across the Northern Pacific / western North America this weekend. Scientifically known as tropical cyclone recurvature & extratropical transition. Maps: @aliciambentley.bsky.social

[Jeff Goldblum voice] infrastructure, uh, finds a way.

The @Yankees are diving head-first into the ALDS!

Hi all. Apologies for going dark in recent months! I promise that I'm still around. Currently working on many things, including finalizing version 2.0 of the EMC Verification System, verifying new AI weather models, and preparing for the GFS v17 evaluation. I'll post more as things materialize! 🌎

The Atlantic season's 7th named storm, Tropical Storm Gabrielle, has formed. Gabrielle is expected to slowly strengthen and may approach Bermuda as a hurricane early next week. nhc.noaa.gov

🏈 BAL 40 - 41 BUF FINAL ✅ That's Scorigami!! It's the 1092nd unique final score in NFL history.

Incredible video from Arizona State University Football of the haboob that moved through the Tempe area earlier this evening

WPC DAY 2 mentions that conditions are favorable for a PRE over NE/NY. The factors are there tomorrow for it to come together. We'll see if it can work out or not. It's possible the deepest moisture and best synoptics do not time correctly.

Hurricane Erin this evening. A stunning satellite shot.

Tonight featured some of the most incredible lightning I’ve ever captured. Taken from Champaign, IL after thunderstorms departed the area!!⚡️ #ilwx @deeplycloudy.bsky.social @stephanieway.bsky.social @frqltg.bsky.social

The NWS' radar in San Juan PR is capturing a beautiful eyewall replacement cycle! bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/