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"We find that reduced government spending predicts a greater endorsement of individualist and fatalist attributions, and labor deregulation predicts a higher endorsement of individualist attributions. Taken together, neoliberal policies potentially perpetuate ideologies that vindicate the system"

Without marginaleffects my career would be over. Probably THE most important resource out there for quantitative social scientiests

Whoa—my book is up for pre-order! 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠: 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐭𝐨 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭 & 𝐌𝐋 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐢𝐧 #Rstats 𝐚𝐧𝐝 #PyData The book presents an ultra-simple and powerful workflow to make sense of ± any model you fit The web version will stay free forever and my proceeds go to charity. tinyurl.com/4fk56fc8

"children exposed to the welfare cut during preschool and school-age obtained lower GPAs, experienced reduced well-being and overall education levels, and suffered lower employment and earnings as adults. Children in their teens at exposure faced large increases in conviction probabilities"

In Nordrhein-Westfalen wählen ziemlich gleich viele Leute AfD und Grüne. Medial und politisch geht es heute allerdings fast nur um die AfD und ihre Themen. Die "besorgten Bürger" die Aufmerksamkeit bekommen, sind die Anhänger der AfD. Wir sagen ihnen klar: es lohnt sich rechtsextrem zu wählen

Electoral responses to economic crises: "economic crises tend to disproportionately favor the right"

If you're bent out of shape about fertility rates and not worried about making our nation attractive and welcoming to immigrants you're either making a big logical error or you're not really worried about the economy at all.

"Discrimination is most pronounced in industry and skilled crafts sectors and for small firms, while public administration and large firms show minimal differences. Discrimination is significantly more prevalent in rural areas than in urban areas."

"Overall, our findings suggest a “ratchet-effect” heuristic: left parties may still push back against rising disparities but have given up on lowering existing levels of inequality. To us, the findings imply lock-in effects [...]"

Why Inequalities Persist: Parties’ (Non)Responses to Economic Inequality, 1970–2020 new paper in APSR. How do parties react to inqeuality levels and changes to these levels?

Maybe if we give the far-right more facts and context, they’ll receive them in good faith and see the errors in their analysis

Oh come on… it’s not the private emails and holiday photos that is the problem here. Address the real problem. Make big tech and AI companies pay for the exorbitant use. System level solutions please. www.404media.co/uk-asks-peop...

It is time for policies that contain addictive content recommendation systems

You can either write/code/create yourself or be a content moderator for AI slob. Choose wisely

Good read

Some Skeptical Observations on Real Business Cycle Theory Minneapolis Fed Quarterly Review 1043 | Fall 1986 Lawrence H. Summers www.minneapolisfed.org/research/qua...

My Finnish peers found it appropriate to heat up the local community sauna to 98°

Public Service Decline and Support for the Populist Right: "Our findings underscore the role of public service decline as a driver of support for populist parties, especially in areas undergoing demographic change"

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... Austerity, economic vulnerability, and populism: "The economic origins of populism are thus not purely external; the populist backlash is triggered by internal factors, notably public policies."

my only goal in life is to become this dude

Today's good news

academic.oup.com/economicpoli... the cost to the oppressors: "Right-wing populism deters the highly skilled immigrants who are critical to fostering economic and social progress from coming [... and] the adverse selection reinforces anti-immigrant narratives"

"those who discussed immigration in their open-ended responses expressed far more distrust towards opponents – an effect driven by right-wing respondents who discussed immigration"

"illustrates how powerfully the initial framing and publicity surrounding tech developments can influence public policy. As generative AI applications burst onto the scene in 2022–2023, a small community of computer scientists [...] misled the world." opinions? www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

If life gives you peaches, go voting?

In theory, yes

"find a strong relationship between mobility and support for the far right across 11 European countries. [...] demonstrate an asymmetry: while downward mobility predicts increased far-right voting, upward mobility has little effect." journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....

cup.org/3GTsE3W Inflation narratives: government spending, as emphasized by Republicans, and corporate greed, highlighted by Democrats. "Economic voting behaviour depends not only on objective economic conditions but also on how political parties subjectively frame these conditions."

Need another 5 to 10 list experiments to confirm

muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl... "Analyzing a database of countries that have gone from being democratic to authoritarian and back again since 1994 reveals that almost all failed to sustain their recoveries"

"Stop talking about Nazis" as a rule of thumb?

"The image of lower-class voters with crystallized preferences for redistribution that simply wait to be mobilized with the right policy supply is probably inaccurate" www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Focus groups show that citizens have "limited knowledge about or interest in tax policy, indifference or hostility towards taxing the rich, susceptibility to business criticism of taxation, and a weak link between support expressed in surveys and in face-to-face conversations"

"This paper demonstrates how digital interdependence is different from traditional economic interdependence. States retain less direct control over the direction of data flows and digital interdependence than the traditional commodities, goods, and services that create economic interdependence"

Mau et al. find that, for Germany, a belief in meritocracy and individualized "self-saving" (among other things) explain this gap. Of course, some actors also blame foreigners and "lazy" people similar to the UK and other places. These narratives stick with people so that there is low support

It’s always “Soviet architecture is so dystopian” and never “its dystopian that the capitalists that took over the country haven’t build better, affordable housing in decades”

"The real risk isn’t that smart policy will stifle the next breakthrough. The real risk is that our failure to govern in real time will lock in systems that are flawed by design and unfit for purpose."

"disproportionate media attention to the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party was not related to its size or policy impact, but to the strategic disruption of the political process itself. [...] undermines a core democratic journalism norm by amplifying coverage of illiberal actors"

journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10.... "Center-right parties have been reluctant to address high inequality and demands for equal rights, while many far-right parties have surpassed them in promoting economic equality and even support for equal rights"

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1... "find that administrative capacity, characterized by meritocratic recruitment, impartial administration, and predictable enforcement, significantly reduces the risk of incumbent-led democratic breakdowns"

muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl... The arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, marks the latest turn in Turkey’s prolonged autocratization process, signaling a possible shift from competitive to the hegemonic authoritarianism of Russia and Venezuela.

www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/a... Ultra-wealthy individuals pay around 0% to 0.6% of their wealth in individual income tax – around 0.6% in a country like the United States and 0.1% in a country like France. Acemoglu et al ask for minimum tax for ultra rich

This looks a must read for those interested in triple differences (DDD) designs. It shows that the standard way many estimate DDD is wrong. It shows why and gives you tools that work with covariates and staggered adoption. Bonus: free R package. arxiv.org/abs/2505.09942

Personalist autocracies underperform, whereas institutionalised autocracies perform similar to democracies (in terms of economic growth)

In theory, civil society is strengthened by a strong private sector. In practice, civil society is exploited and bled dry by a strong private sector. Contemporary democracies need to contain the top 10% of companies and not the other way around

Transport studies are at it again 🔥🔥

www.euractiv.com/section/poli... Kazakhstan is making an assertive push to redefine its role in Central Asia by placing human rights, democratic accountability, and the rule of law at the centre of its national reform agenda.

📣 Call for Applications 📣 3-year Postdoc position in Berlin 🚀 Join our Comparative Political Behavior Group at @humboldtuni.bsky.social & the @humboldt-govlab.bsky.social Great people, great projects, great city – come work with us! 🗓️ Deadline: 31 July 2025

Austerity is like a drug that creates crashes which it claims to overcome while only creating more misery