There’s been a lot of buzz around the Borjas/Breznau (2026) paper (www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...) and potential ideological bias in research. We took a closer look at the data. Could there be a "bias in bias research"? Here is what we found: www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10...

there are bad apples in meta-science, too. after all, it's a field where people get to play right a lot and that seems to be attractive for a certain kind of person

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... "rural residents express stronger place-based identification and perceive greater conflict than urban citizens". I can totally see that voting far-right is a also function of perceived conflict. nice paper! @kai-arzheimer.com

damn I was hoping to become unemployed. so I really have to keep doing this?

🚨New paper out in @epsrjournal.bsky.social! I examine how high rental prices influence local political satisfaction in German cities. 🔎🏢 doi.org/10.1017/S175... For a preview of the results check the 🧵below👇:

Wrote about SpaceX' IPO, the Pope, and the power of ideas dkarpa.github.io/blog/2026/po...

Psychologists doing clustering be like: #statsmeme

Excited to share my new paper w/ @janzilinsky.bsky.social that's conditionally accepted at @ajpseditor.bsky.social 🎉 Is there a general "anti-technology" orientation among Americans? We built a scale and found that worries about social media, AI, and modernity do form a coherent disposition.

From our February Issue: Why Inequalities Persist: Parties’ (Non)Responses to Economic Inequality, 1970–2020 by @alexanderhorn.bsky.social, MARTIN HASELMAYER and @klueserthan.bsky.social. doi.org/10.1017/S000...

New article out in @wepsocial.bsky.social, with Lucca Hoffeller: doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2026.2662884 We add a new perspective to research on congruence and political support: Group-based congruence, where citizens’ support depends on how well their social group’s preferences are represented. 🧵

What happens when the state quietly disappears? A new paper finds that support for populism in Italy (2008–18) rose where hospitals closed, especially in remote municipalities. Greater distance to public services reinforced feelings of abandonment and boosted populist voting.

Are you interested in conjoint experiments? Wrote about my new R package *cjdiag* on my website. Feedback welcome! dkarpa.github.io/blog/2026/be...

“Writing is hard.” Thrilled to share that this simple idea led to a new paper in Political Analysis! Where most text methods focus on content, I test if expression is also effortful action. I find simple measures like character counts reveal attitudes and predict voting. cup.org/4cUmoXi 1/

My latest article is online now at American Sociological Review: “Kinship Interlocks.” It’s about how some elite families manage to stay rich and powerful for many generations while others don’t. 🧵 (1/16)

Selecting an effect size for power analysis is hard. Many researchers fall back on Cohen's thresholds, but they have no empirical basis and vary wildly by field. Our new paper offers a better option: field-specific effect size distributions built from meta-analytic data doi.org/10.3758/s134...

Today, I presented our paper on how fiscal consolidation (spending cuts/tax hikes to reduce the fiscal deficit) affects political instability - government popularity, major government crises and protest activity - in advanced economies. Working paper coming soon!

And executives are, of course, perfectly aware of this attribution mechanism among consumers. We found lots of statements explaining it in their earnings calls with analysts. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Holy sh.. The cover of Germany‘s very pro-business Manager Magazin about Minister Reiche‘s irresponsible decision to double down on gas power plants. Illustrates once more that old journalistic frames of there being such a monolithic thing as ‚the business community‘ are outdated.

Die Reform zum Angst-Modell: Man kann in kleineren Betrieben jederzeit gefeuert werden, landet dann in einer kargen Grundsicherung und wird dort unter Androhung von Sanktionen gezwungen, sofort jede neue Arbeit anzunehmen. Konzerne könnten dann Teilbereiche an 49-Personen-Betriebe outsourcen. /1

Social media is no longer social. Most of it is passive viewing of videos and pictures from people we've never met. But we're still studying social media like it's 2010. We've entered the post-social media era — and research needs to catch up. osf.io/preprints/so... preprint w/ Richard Rogers

New paper with @bjoernbremer.bsky.social and @catherinedevries.bsky.social out! The Limits of Public Support for Fiscal Consolidation: Survey Evidence From Great Britain (1/7) journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Good news everyone 🥳 Our (w @vincentab.bsky.social) primer on models as prediction machines (with the marginaleffects package) is finally officially published!> journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

The special issue of @cpsjournal.bsky.social “Back from the Brink: Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies”, co-edited by myself and Isabela Mares, was just published. The issue includes 8 articles, many of which set new research agendas. A🧵w/overview 1/10 journals.sagepub.com/toc/CPS/curr...

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... shallow support for austerity: citizens receptive to counter narratives

Very timely & important publication: "Why do political debates escalate? Trigger Points and the Moral Dynamics of 'Hot Politics'" @bjsociology.bsky.social by @lwestheuser.bsky.social, @thomaslux.bsky.social & our Director @steffenmau.bsky.social. Open Access. Details below.

New QJE paper measures spending flows between 1000s of small groups of consumers and producers, government, rest of the world. Most consumer spending stays domestic, esp in rural, older, less-educated areas->higher fiscal multipliers; targeting "left-behind" groups boosts economy

excellent

Whether more social housing weakens the far right depends on whether housing is politicized as a (natives vs migrants) group conflict. This is similar in areas like climate policy: How objective distributive effects are perceived is mediated by politically induced group scripts. Politically,...

In an effort to promote open data, I just uploaded my media-based data collection on political DDoS attacks from 2008-2016 with manual coding of attacker types, targets, and attribution certainty. Feel free to explore the early days of Anonymous and Russian hacktivists: osf.io/preprints/so...

I have always been fascinated by the question of what people think when they know they are being surveilled. How do they change their behavior? Why? My paper on this is out today in Political Behavior. A survey experiment with 5,025 people in Kazakhstan. 🧵

but can it review papers

I’d especially like to encourage women to apply. We’re a fantastic department with excellent scholars, in beautiful Vienna. Data shows that women are less likely to apply for positions than equally qualified men (Muriel Niederle & Lise Vesterlund 2011), so if you’re considering it, please go for it!

Like most self-styled “libertarians”, Döpfner is fascinated by authoritarian politicians and fascist tech bros. One could write a whole PhD on his success and how it reflects the conservatism, parochialism and sexism of German business society.

🚨 Job Alert 🚨 We have an opening for a 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗱𝗼𝗰 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 @stawi-univie.bsky.social starting Aug/Sep 2026! Focus: political representation, party competition, political institutions, political economy, political behavior, or related fields 📅Apply by 29 April 2026 jobs.univie.ac.at/job/Universi...

NEUES BUCH ZU KI & DEMOKRATIE! KI verändert alles, aber nicht automatisch alles zum Besseren. Vielmehr kann KI ungesteuert Freiheit, Selbstbestimmung und Demokratie beseitigen. Deshalb darf die wehrhafte Demokratie der Allianz von BigTech & Rechtsextremen nicht die Zukunft überlassen. #OffeneZukunft

One of my favorites paper got published 🤓 It covers a lot of ground and it’s the best summary of my views on misinformation and what to do about it. Give it a read :) 🔓 osf.io/preprints/ps... 👉 doi.org/10.1177/1461...

German real wages saw the sharpest decline since WWII in the 2022 energy crisis & still haven’t recovered. The new energy shock will make things worse. But the German government is once more calling on people to tighten their belts. This is paving the way for the far right.

New working paper: Rethinking Misinformation Interventions. The field has spent years searching for the one intervention that will solve misinformation. This search is the wrong approach — and our disappointment says more about our expectations than our tools. (1/5) osf.io/preprints/so...

This is the *fifth* study to undermine the idea that the muted political response to inequality is due to growing meritocracy beliefs, esp. among the poor. - Inequality erodes meritocracy beliefs - Poor meritocrats still want redistribution - What matters is the politicization of inequality Links:

🔍 How does economic inequality impact beliefs in meritocracy? Using comprehensive survey data from 39 advanced capitalist democracies over more than three decades, Markus Gangl & I examine how rising economic inequality has been shaping citizens' belief in meritocracy. 🔗 doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwag016

A 🧵on how the @vdeminstitute.bsky.social accountability indices help us understand how democratic backsliding is occurring in the United States. tl;dr: in principle, vertical constraints on the president remain strong; in practice, horizontal and diagonal constraints have been greatly weakened.

I have always been fascinated by the question of what people think when they know they are being surveilled. How do they change their behavior? Why? My paper on this is out today in Political Behavior. A survey experiment with 5,025 people in Kazakhstan. 🧵

"Do Voters Respond to the Economy or to News Reporting on the Economy? A Mediation Analysis" by Mark A. Kayser and Michael Peress. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Such an important paper

What if reposting far-right takes in twitter screenshots helps them more than us? 🤔

A good moment to advertise this week’s Rethink where we discuss the promise of AI with proponents and skeptics alike and I make a bad stochastic parrot joke. With @emollick.bsky.social Rosalind Picard, Mike Wooldridge and more. But, I think @damonberes.com is right. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

In 2022, Michael Rochlitz and I designed a survey experiment about government surveillance tracking protesters. Back then it was hypothetical. ICE is now doing exactly what we described. New post on what our data showed and why privacy is a political question. dkarpa.github.io/blog/2026/su...

🎺 Call for proposals 🎺 1️⃣ replicate an existing experiment 2️⃣ run a novel experiment on repdata.com 3️⃣ coauthor with Mary McGrath and me to meta-analyze the replications and existing studies 4️⃣ publish your study details: alexandercoppock.com/replication_... applications open Feb 1 please repost!

Girl are you NA? Because I'm missing you