A huge problem with being addicted to paying attention to what is actually happening in the federal government right now is that it's impossible to explain to people who are normal why this information makes you seriously think about pouring a glass of straight gin at 8 in the morning.

Klo 17 alkaen faktantarkistajat kokoontuivat läpivalaisemaan faktantarkistuksen tilaa Suomessa. Puhujina Faktabaarin @mikkovsalo.bsky.social, @pipsahavula.bsky.social ja @joonasporsti.bsky.social sekä @afpfactcheck.bsky.social Anna Hollingsworth ja Black Bird Groupin @jjhelin.bsky.social. 3/5

Last Thursday I whipped up a SITREP for the Kursk salient. I posted it on X, but completely forgot to do so on BlueSky, which I regret. The thread would be slightly outdated, but a longer writeup of the situation and UA withdrawal can be found on our Substack. substack.com/home/post/p-...

“It’s nearing the end of the republic but we’re cheering for the pickled egg.” A wonderful piece of writing from @mollymckew.bsky.social x.com/mollymckew/s...

We have updated our map to reflect the situation in Kursk. In short, it's not looking good. The areas east of the Loknya and Psel rivers will likely be lost within days or less. Large scale withdrawal is likely, but Ukraine may attempt to hold onto Sudzha for some time.

We have updated our map to reflect the situation in Kursk. In short, it's not looking good. The areas east of the Loknya and Psel rivers will likely be lost within days or less. Large scale withdrawal is likely, but Ukraine may attempt to hold onto Sudzha for some time.

US has stopped military aid to Ukraine as per Bloomberg. "The US is pausing all current military aid to Ukraine until Trump determines the country’s leaders demonstrate a good-faith commitment to peace, according to a senior Defense Department official" www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

What coherent and intelligent commentary can you even have on national security or military affairs anymore? Everything is just fucking stupid now. What are you even supposed to say besides just repeating over and over how fucking dumb every single decision is?

Trump take egg Trump take lumber Trump take oil Trump take nickel Trump take tomato Trump take avocado Trump take car Trump take steel Trump take laptop Trump take 401k Trump take natural gas Trump take cell phones Trump take t shirt Trump take tequila Trump take washing machines Trump take steel Tr

starting a business that just sells Canadian merchandise at US airports for Americans traveling abroad

Well that's a way to spend the friday night. What a complete disaster. If someone still had illusions about the US being a reliable and moral foreign policy partner, this is the time to wake up. Sadly I don't have high hopes.

This photo of Musk speaking at the AfD rally has an interesting composition. I'm sure the AFP photographer had fun.

This photo of Musk speaking at the AfD rally has an interesting composition. I'm sure the AFP photographer had fun.

Arvopohjainen suomettuminen @hs.fi

if you want a simple narrative of the last four years in cultural leadership: a bunch of 50-something men got mad about their buddies losing their jobs for sexually assaulting women, so they decided that sexism and racism were fine all along

It was only a matter of time before Trump gave us the first QAnon FBI director. Patel: “The Q thing is a movement a lot of people attach themselves to. I disagree with a lot of what that movement says, but I agree with a lot of what that movement says.” www.nytimes.com/2025/01/23/u...

Light Infantry Attacks – A Thread Why does our @jjhelin.bsky.social keep rejecting the "human waves" narrative, instead calling the reported North Korean attacks in Kursk "basic infantry drills"? Let’s dive into light infantry on the attack and why this distinction matters. 1/

Finland as usual showing a masterful & unusual combination of sangfroid and seriousness in response to a national security threat.

With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk. In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat. A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk. 1/

With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk. In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat. A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk. 1/

Ukraine’s failure to fix organizational issues and replace inefficient commanders has eroded trust in the system to the point, where severe recruitment shortages and desertion levels are so high that no amount of aid can fix it The window of opportunity to change is closing

By the way, interesting to see the five brigade figure in this report. It's the same force sizing I entertained - entirely speculatively - in a piece looking at options for Ukraine a few weeks ago. www.economist.com/briefing/202...

Clarification; this 40k number has NOT come from the French government. It came from analysis by a think tank. bsky.app/profile/shas...

That would be a larger force than the combined NATO forward deployments in Eastern Europe. Pulling together that number of troops plus enablers would be a huge undertaking for allies. Would consume NATO reserves & more. A big ask, and probably impossible without significant US assistance.

🧵Look towards the light. As Rebel forces in Syria advanced across Syria & never stopped a key question was why the Regime evaporated. Syria by night provides some clues on how the Regime's social contract collapsed. Read my analysis here aspistrategist.org.au/just-look-at... & read on

“President-elect Trump has tapped … Sebastian Gorka to … act as the deputy assistant to the president and as the senior director for counterterrorism.” I think he means senior director for peacekeeping, terrorism and thermonuclear war. thehill.com/policy/natio...

The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office opened an investigation against another instance of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Donetsk Oblast. (1/3) isw.pub/UkrWar112224

I love the "why do you care about a Ridley Scott movie" sort of responses to this here and elsewhere. I mean, I care for the same reason Ridley Scott made this movie. For money (inexplicably, I'm being paid to review it). God knows, I hope it wasn't for the art of it.

El analista @jjhelin.bsky.social destaca algo que altos rangos del ejército ucranio han ido advirtiendo desde 2023: Rusia lleva tiempo reubicando bases y centros logísticos de su retaguardia para dejarlos fuera del alcance de los ATACMS. elpais.com/internaciona...

Delighted to announce that my film, The Battle For Kyiv, will be available to stream online for two weeks as part of the Byline Doc Fest 2024. The film will be available for Byline subscribers or PPV from this Monday! I’m looking forward to hearing all your thoughts! byline.tv/docfest/

Continuing on this trail, but the good folks at @desertbus.org are running their (seemingly) last two hours. Do take a gander over there and join the chaos for a while and maybe force them to play that godawful game for one more hour. For the kids. m.twitch.tv/desertbus?de...

Hard turn from my usual stuff but the bosses needed something light and human interest for this friday. So I thought, why not @desertbus.org www.hs.fi/maailma/art-...

❄️🇺🇦 Winter has arrived in Kharkiv. Today, icy roads and wet snow are expected across most of Ukraine.

Black Birds are flying to BlueSky. As many good analysts, experts and journalists have moved to BlueSky, we at Black Bird Group decided to establish a presence here. We'll continue to post on X too, but from now on you can find my threads here also.

Good morning Bluesky! I have set up an account over here in addition to the Musk-app. I'll do my best to cross-post all future analysis and long form threads, at least for now. For the Finns; I visited YLE A-studio yesterday for a grim conversation about the future of the war and Donald Trump.

Follow us: Black Bird Group: @blackbirdgroup.bsky.social Our analysts: @jhelin.bsky.social @eerikmatero.bsky.social @inkvisiit.bsky.social

Hello all, I will be more active here moving forward. Cross-posting my newest research on Russian military reconstitution. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

X is increasingly overrun with Russian trolls posing as MAGA supporters, along with accounts sharing racist or explicit content: hardly a professional environment. With nearly 200k followers there, I’ll be gradually moving here. Please share this message so others can find and follow me here too