Ukrainians keep hitting Russia’s oil sector, striking 1 refinery and 2 pumping stations this morning alone. Since August, there have been more than 30 hits on refineries and depots. Desertion rates have doubled, and Z-influencers are unhappy. Russia’s situation will get worse.

At least five 9T250 transloaders and 1 Iskander launcher were destroyed in early August on the grounds of a poultry farm in Shumakovo, Kursk oblast. The Frontelligence Insight found the strike took place between Aug 8 - Aug 13, rather than later in the month as first reported

Another successful Ukrainian drone strike hit the Salavat Petrochemical Plant, according to photos and videos shared on the Telegram channels Exilnova Plus and Supernova Plus. Quick geolocation analysis indicates the fire broke out in one of the plant’s main oil-processing units

Without tangible policy shifts, real changes in aid, or the enforcement of sanctions, it’s nothing more than talk - a position that could shift tomorrow or next month again, after Putin’s next call or another “strategic” visit from Witkoff. What matters are actions, not words.

Trump: We stopped the conflict between Cambodia and Armenia. I am honored to be alive during the first Indo-Caucasian war Miraculous times indeed

I am not American, but I do care about what happens in the US. As the financial, cultural, and political center, and the foundation of the international system, it sets trends worldwide. I am concerned about the effects this may have in Europe and Asia, and about what kind of “era”we are entering

If you are truly a free speech proponent, you wouldn’t have cheered for cancel culture from the left years ago, and you wouldn’t cheer for the current cancel culture from the right either. If you do, you’re not that different from the activists of Mao’s Cultural Revolution.

Threatens Denmark with Greenland annexation. Threatens Australian journalist. Threatens own media. DOJ threatens the opposition. On the other hand, lifts sanctions from Belarus and rolls out the red carpet for Putin. I don’t think this is the end, and the damage done will be very difficult to undo.

Reuters reports that U.S. military officers observed joint war games between Russia and Belarus on Monday. The U.S. granted sanctions relief to Belarus’ airline Belavia, enabling it to purchase Boeing parts. Trump also seeks to reopen the U.S. embassy, normalize ties, and revive trade relations

A country where even mundane political disagreements, whether over universal healthcare or a political meme online, escalate into accusations of treason and calls for capital punishment is surely on the path to a bright future

Thousands of mercenaries are known to be fighting for Russia, but little else is publicly known. Our team at Frontelligence Insight holds exclusive lists with thousands of records, including their names, units, and home countries. In the coming days, we will release this data, broken down by country

One day after a swarm of drones violated NATO airspace in Poland, with some entering from Belarus and crashing into a civilian building and the territory of a military base, the U.S. lifted sanctions on Belarus’s flag carrier airline "Belavia".

My grandmother took a tougher stance on TV volume with my grandfather than Trump did on Russia penetrating NATO airspace with drones.

Will Vladimir stop under the pressure of such a tough stance?

Approximate routes of tonight’s drone attacks in Ukraine and Poland (yellow) and cruise missile attacks in Ukraine (red), as published on Telegram channel "monitorwar".

..."If I was president, that war would have never happened" It’s about time we send Steve Witkoff to Moscow. We’re going to make a tremendous deal - nobody makes deals like this

Our team regularly investigates Russia’s production and sanctions evasion. If you have original materials that could support or even start an investigation, such as evidence of production growth or sanctions bypass, we encourage you to contact us at [email protected]

The effort to “decouple” Russia from China has failed. Putin’s rhetoric in Beijing after the Alaska meeting (which produced little of value) only conferred greater legitimacy on Putin. With the 50-day deadline to stop the war expired, the administration’s weakness is glaring

The Ukrainian Military Intelligence (HUR) has released a video showing a drone attack on a Russian Project 21631 Buyan-M corvette ship, capable of carrying Kalibr cruise missiles. The footage shows two strikes: the first hitting the ship’s radar, and the second impacting its side

Drones, ISR, communications, battlefield awareness, electronic warfare, and mobile anti-tank systems: North Korea appears to have taken notes from the battlefields of Kursk. Its latest propaganda video offers clues, Frontelligence Insight finds in its newest analysis. 🧵Thread:

Our largest investigation to date into Chinese involvement would not have been possible without your support and contributions. We thank everyone who has supported us in recent months - our team, Frontelligence Insight, is proud to share these results with you.

Exclusive Report: Shipments of engines, cylinders, pistons, and electronics are pouring from China into Alabuga, fueling Russia’s Shahed production. Frontelligence Insight analyzed export data, closed reports, and open sources, revealing the scale of support. 🧵Thread:

If you haven’t seen it yet, our team has released one of our largest investigations to date, revealing the scale of Chinese involvement in Russia’s Shahed drone program - a program that would be impossible without China frontelligence.substack.com/p/shaheds-do...

Thank you for your support! We actually exceeded our target, raising around $700 instead of the $390 we aimed for. Stay tuned - there’s more exciting stuff in the works

The current geopolitical standoff feels like a game of hot potato: Putin on one side, Ukraine and Europe on the other, each trying to toss it to the opponent, hoping not to be the one left holding it. The hot potato is Donald Trump.

Thanks to your support, we released an investigation that reached media worldwide on the Su-57 program. In the coming days, we’ll publish an analysis of China’s involvement in Shahed production. With more releases coming in September, we’re asking for your support: buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence

If you haven’t yet, check our new investigation based on exclusive documents detailing Su-57 procurement issues due to sanctions - made possible by your donations. In the coming days, we’ll release two more reports, including one on China’s role in Shahed production:

Missing Targeting Pods, Inflated Bills: An Exclusive Investigation into the Su-57 Procurement Problems by Frontelligence Insight. 🧵Thread: 1/ Newly obtained classified documents, show that Russia purchased its 5-generation Su-57 fighters for more than 3 billion rubles each;

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s statement on his official Telegram channel: “The meeting proved that negotiations are possible without preconditions and simultaneously with the continuation of the special military operation ”

Tonight, countless calories will be burned powering the brains of analysts and political commentators, and millions of keystrokes spent explaining what happened in Alaska. Yet sometimes, a simple diagram explains it better than a PhD thesis: Photo credit: @vatniksoup.bsky.social

Some political pundits are already sharing this image as an example of how Putin should be dealt with. Unfortunately, it’s a terrible example. Ukraine was repeatedly warned not to escalate or use weapons while Russia occupied Crimea. At that time, we didn’t receive military aid, sanctions were weak

Wouldn’t call it a complete nothingburger. Putin may have given the impression of seeking peace and negotiation, effectively sweeping aside Trump’s earlier deadlines and demands while in reality escalating offensive operations in Ukraine. Will it work ? We’ll soon find out

8th Army MIA Cases, 2024–2025: Debates over losses are always heated, but hard data cuts through the noise. Frontelligence Insight analyzed Russian documents released by the I Want to Live project, giving insight on soldiers of the 8th Army who went missing in action. 🧵Thread:

Another highly successful strike hits Russia’s oil industry: the main war-profit engine fueling the war. Multiple sources of fire and visible smoke from separate locations at the Syzran refinery following a drone attack suggest that the strike was effective and impactful

What kind of clickbait is this? Nobody in Ukraine is fighting for Zelensky. People are fighting for their homes, families and Ukraine

Commented to the Financial Time on pressure to cede territories: “The constitution limits his power: he has no legal right to alter Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Even more constraining is pressure from society and, crucially, the military, which opposes giving up unoccupied territory"

Multiple Russian internet resources and pro-Russian Telegram channels report that the "corridor" from the penetration near Dobropillia is being contained, and even claim it is being cut off as a result of Ukrainian counteractions. I cannot verify this information yet but there are POW videos

Big article in The Wall Street Journal today about Syrskiy’s leadership. Those who follow me know I’ve been warning about him since 2023. It took a great deal of blood and casualties on the battlefield, and smearing of me for speaking the truth, before many finally accepted it.

Given recent Russian gains near Pokrovsk, Putin may try to show Trump that Russia is close to trapping Ukraine’s army. Earlier this year, Trump wrote that Russians encircled Ukrainian troops in Kursk after early discussions with Putin, likely echoing arguments presented to him

If you look at the map around Pokrovsk, you may finally see why I’ve long been worried, about both the city and the trajectory of the war. Talk of big enemy losses, forecasts of economic collapse, or claims I’m “too negative” won’t change it. Change starts by seeing problems

With plans to deploy the National Guard to “clean up” the D.C., I was reminded of the Soviet Union’s efforts during the Olympics to remove so-called “undesirable” people from the city in order to present a better image to visitors. Just search for the term “101st kilometer” in Google

Desertions, AWOLs, manpower shortages, and recruitment struggles are often linked to the Ukrainian army. And rightly so - I’ve spoken about these issues at length. But the situation on the Russian side is also worsening. This issue deserves wider attention, so here’s a 🧵thread:

As Moscow tries to spotlight Ukraine’s recruitment issues, the Kremlin is taking unprecedented steps to fill its own ranks. Here are key developments from the past two weeks: 1/ Russia’s electronic draft registry and Unified Military Register are now live and ramping up activity

Brief BDA of the strike on the Shahed-launching base in Primorsko-Akhtarsk: Imagery shows 4 destroyed tent-like structures, likely used for storage. No signs of detonation, only burning. Launch rails and large storage facilities are intact. Drone launches appear to be continuing

Based on an early look at several dozen hits over the past 2 weeks, both the success rate and damage from Ukrainian long-range drones have gone up compared to late 2024–early 2025. I haven’t put together the dataset yet, but even at a glance, the results already look different

Well, that didn’t take long. Trump, today: “I think Russia has lost over 20,000 since the beginning of the year” This figure is clearly incorrect - a serious undercount, the exact opposite of the inflated number he gave just a week or so ago. This is precisely why you shouldn't rely on his numbers

Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated that Russians are adding approximately 9,000 troops per month: 1/ By comparing that figure to Russia’s recruitment numbers and assessing the surplus, one can roughly estimate their monthly casualty rate

A few observations drawn from insider insights, open-source data, information from russian internal documents, and conversations with senior officers, frontline soldiers, and volunteers - based on developments from Spring through Summer 2025. Thread🧵:

I’m happy to report that Ukrainian strikes are moving faster than our team’s geolocation and analysis can keep up with! We’re taking a day off to catch our breath, then we’ll dive into a thorough review of all the latest impacts. Thanks for your patience and donations

Penza Military Plant “Elektropribor”: Preliminary Damage Assessment 🧵Thread: 1/ In the early hours of August 2, Ukrainian UAVs struck multiple targets in Russia, including refineries and military-industrial sites. Here’s what’s known so far about the strike on Elektropribor