On June 1, Ukraine conducted a successful operation targeting Russian strategic bombers and other aircraft. Our battle damage assessment can confirm the following losses: 12 destroyed and 3 damaged aircraft, of which 14 are strategic bombers and 1 is a transport aircraft. 1/

Russia is developing its military infrastructure and conducting organizational reforms near Nato’s northern flank, especially near Finland. News agencies from different countries have asked me about the topic, and in this thread I will share some recent observations. 1/

At this rate Europeans will only be able to view Washington as a reliable partner after a fundamental reform of the US constitutional order

That Crypto is a parasitic entity dependent on a functioning global finance system rather than a revolutionary framework for replacing it is going to occur to a lot of people after it is too late to bail out

In the Russian-Ukrainian border region, both parties have continued offensive operations since the Ukrainian defense in Kursk collapsed. While Russia is pushing Ukrainians out of Kursk and its own soldiers into Ukrainian territory in Sumy, Ukraine has again attacked Belgorod. 1/

We have updated the map to reflect the emerging situation in the Kursk salient, where recent Russian offensive have forced the Ukrainians to withdraw from large areas. The northern part of the salient has been abandoned, with Russians capturing Malaya Lokanaya. 1/

When Ukrainians refuse to surrender, the next step Trump is likely to take is accuse Europeans as a whole of intransigence and order full US withdrawal from Europe without understanding that such a move would paralyse the ability of the US to project power in key global regions.

Europe wants a seat at the negotiating table. It requires real initiative and risk tolerance. Assembling a brigade from a manpower-starved nation’s soldiers, while repeating obvious talking points about continuing aid and pressuring Russia through sanctions, doesn’t cut it. 9/9

Ukraine has been fighting for three years in increasingly difficult conditions. Today, the Nordic and Baltic countries announced that they will “pledge to provide equipment and training for a scalable brigade-sized unit”. It’s a textbook example of too little, too late. 1/

Trump appears to be seeking a deal over the head of Ukraine & Europe. This is the moment for Europeans to seize the frozen Russian assets and use them to give Ukraine leverage; leverage to shape a deal & to walk away from a rotten one if necessary. www.hoover.org/research/fre...

GeoConfirmed UKR. 40.000 Since February 24, 2022, we have added over 40,000 geolocations to our Ukraine map. Yes... forty thousand. Each of these pins is linked to corresponding footage and its verified geolocation, ensuring full transparency for anyone to review. 1/5

Ukraine has carried out a series of counterattacks in several directions, especially southeast of Pokrovsk. They have entered Pishchane, but currently it's unclear if they have fully retaken the village. At the same time, the Russians are still attacking in the area too. 1/

After six months of combat in the Kursk salient, the Ukrainians launched another attack in the southeastern direction of Sudzha. The Ukrainians seemingly breached the first Russian defences, and an armored column managed to advance up to 5-7 kilometers deep towards Ulanok. 1/

The Russian 1st Tank Army has slowly been moving forward in order to shift the front line in Kharkiv towards the Oskil river. In this thread we present where each unit in this front sector is located. Sources: docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Even though the Russians were able to capture Velyka Novosilka and secure rest of Kurakhove, the overall pace of Russian advance continued to slow down during January. Russian armed forces were able to conquer 332 square kilometers of Ukraine and regain some 68 sq km in Kursk. 1/

Vellyka Novosilka and Kurakhove have fallen, and Russians continue their offensive towards Pokrovsk. In this thread I will examine what is to be expected of the most critical area of the eastern front in the near future, and what can the Russians realistically achieve. 1/

The state of the other site... Had this one ready to go earlier today but held off until I saw @thomasnilsen.bsky.social's recent post here. Decided one needs to stand up against this shit.

And if all the NATO members pledged to spend 5%, Trump would demand 7% or 10% - because it isn't about how much is spent on defence or how member states can make their citizens more secure. This is a power play and an exercise in public bullying.

Arvopohjainen suomettuminen @hs.fi

This is a great way for Russia to "reward" foreign companies that have stayed in Russia, instead of leaving as the "evil EU/NATO" told them 😄

It’s not even that he did it, it’s the crowd cheering

Always remember that Putin, like most autocrats, is fundamentally a big bully. One doesn’t become, or remain, an autocrat otherwise. Bullies simply laugh at well meaning people who suggest negotiation as the means for “resolving the differences, and use the opportunity for their own gain.

Our group did a dive into light infantry tactics. There has been much talk about human waves in Ukraine, and the narratives don't always reflect the realities. This thread aims to clarify a few things about this subject.

Light Infantry Attacks – A Thread Why does our @jjhelin.bsky.social keep rejecting the "human waves" narrative, instead calling the reported North Korean attacks in Kursk "basic infantry drills"? Let’s dive into light infantry on the attack and why this distinction matters. 1/

Jokainen itse hengailkoon äxässä jos maistuu (en suosittele), mutta verorahoilla ei pidä Muskin vihanlietsonta-, hölynpöly- ja vaikuttamisalustaa läsnäolollaan tukea. Helsinki pois X:stä siis. www.kauppalehti.fi/uutiset/kl/a...

There’s a bad conspiracy theory going around that Bob Woodward claims in his book ‘War’ that the AFU allowed 30,000 Russian troops to quietly withdraw from Kherson due to US pressure on Kiyv. It’s false on all counts. 1/

At 0:12 FPV drone from the 60th Mechanized Brigade hits a Russian soldier north of Terny, Donetsk oblast 49.11498, 37.96462 @geoconfirmed.org

Ukrainians have continued their attacks in Kursk. Today, an armored column advanced towards Bolshoye Soldatskoye, and reportedly fighting is ongoing in other villages too. Unfortunately, I find it unlikely that these actions could produce very significant results. 1/

If the Europeans want to avoid the next war, they must be ready to engage directly in Ukraine, Franz-Stefan Gady writes.

During the past year, there have been several attacks against critical infrastructure near Finland. Russians are being increasingly apparent in their will to escalate the situation in the Baltic Sea. These events must be set in the right context to understand why they happen. 1/

With the recent Russian advances, two dangerous salients are emerging in Southern Donetsk. In Velyka Novosilka and Kurakhove, the Ukrainian supply routes are under significant threat. A quick look at the logistics in South Donetsk. 1/

🧵Look towards the light. As Rebel forces in Syria advanced across Syria & never stopped a key question was why the Regime evaporated. Syria by night provides some clues on how the Regime's social contract collapsed. Read my analysis here aspistrategist.org.au/just-look-at... & read on

Somehow Assad's Syrian government managed to collapse faster than the Afghan National Government.

Given this week’s events Assad's regime is finished & it’s a race to Damascus. The Russian position in Syria, and MENA region writ large is consequently in deep trouble, because of Syria’s importance as a logistics hub for Russian operations. Short thread. 1/

If bullshit threats works. Expect more bullshit threats. nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/wh...

Me when we are getting major historical events on a weekly basis.

This fall has been grim for Ukraine. According to our assessment, between 1 September and 30 November, the Russians captured over 1600 km2 in Ukraine, and retook roughly 500 km2 in Kursk. The rate of advance accelerated every month, despite the Russians suffering heavy losses. 1/

📋 A groundbreaking new research article by Artem P. (@artempdko.bsky.social) on Ukraine's interceptions of Russian UAVs. A new era for FPVs, UAVs and air defense is here, in a first for modern warfare. tochnyi.info/2024/11/fpv-...

Notice how Ru’s nuclear sabre rattling always tracks various Western decisions; it never follows Ukr actions— Kerch bridge attack, drones in Moscow, Kursk incursion, etc. Illustrates that Ru knows that Ukr knows it’s a bluff; the fear-mongering only works on the gullible West.

And they're going to keep doing it until we make them suffer consequences!

The best thing to do is to ignore all the talk of ceasefires and peace deals and prepare for a scenario in which Europe has to support Ukraine alone in a war that continues for a long time.

GeoConfirmed announcement. We have integrated the BlueSky GeoConfirmed tags in our workflow. GeoLocations tagged with @geoconfirmed.org in BlueSky will now be added to the propper map.

Decided to visualize the range that of both ATACMS and SCALP/Storm Shadow could theoretically have inside of Russia. The darker blue line is the range of ATACMS and the lighter blue is the range of SCALP/Storm Shadow. ATACMS has been limited to be used only within Kursk oblast.

“A combination of lower investment and manpower lost to the front is taking a toll. The need to maintain the value of the rouble to pay for crucial imports is a vulnerability for Mr Putin, and one which could soon take a toll on his ability to fight” www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Decided to visualize the range that of both ATACMS and SCALP/Storm Shadow could theoretically have inside of Russia. The darker blue line is the range of ATACMS and the lighter blue is the range of SCALP/Storm Shadow. ATACMS has been limited to be used only within Kursk oblast.

Thread. Graph of the volume and share of overdue mortgage loans for more than 90 days. Volume 81 billion rubles, share only 0.4% of the portfolio. At first glance, everything is fine, BUT .... 1. The growth rate of overdue +29% per year, too much. 2. Data as of October 1, so these are... 1/3

Most people don’t realize how shitty Soviet/KGB meddling was in “Finlandized” Finland. Forcing that model on Ukraine would be a disgusting betrayal of the West’s promises to the Maidan generation, who bet their lives on democracy and Europe. www.economist.com/internationa...

Russian missile strikes in context. The Sunday attack was the largest since 29.12.2023 (122 vs 120 missiles) and the second largest since September 2022.

Permission to strike with ATACMS came as timely as it did in October 2023, when the counteroffensive was essentially over. Don’t expect a major shift on the battlefield, as the nature of the setbacks for a Ukrainian army comes from different issues, especially if it’s limited to a Kursk only

Around 1% from my X followers have found me here. Nice! I hope we can continue our conversations about Ukraine and other security & defence topics. I don't know if the algorithm prefers images with the posts, but here's a photo I took of the largest crater I've seen. Dovhenke, Kharkiv oblast, 2024.