On Veterans/Armistice Day, re-upping the piece that, out all of my essays for @warontherocks.bsky.social over the years, was perhaps the most meaningful—and enjoyable—to write warontherocks.com/2018/10/from...

What might the growing use and integration of advanced AI mean for nuclear stability and deterrence? Delighted to see this research get published today by the Modern War Institute at Westpoint: mwi.westpoint.edu/an-algorithm...

Fascinating paper from IFRI, and the framing itself is a sign of the times - a Europe-Russia power balance. The intro sets the scene in stark words: "European countries can no longer avoid the “Russian Question” as Russia has chosen war."

“By divine design, we have been put here, the archipelago has been put here,” said Rear Admiral Roy Trinidad, the Philippine Navy’s spokesperson. “It just so happened that we are the toll gate between the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean.” www.reuters.com/investigatio...

Possibly more relevant than sightings near airports

Lovely story on perhaps my favorite place in New York www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/n...

Project Gutenberg is one of those places that exemplifies what the internet was initially all about: studying, preserving, and celebrating the arts, especially the written word, and Greg Newby was a huge part of that. Thank you, Greg, and rest well.

I was just let go as part of this RIF, along with many dedicated and talented colleagues. I am now open to opportunities in defense and strategy across think tanks, FFRDCs and academia. RAND is a fine institution, and I am proud to have worked there.

"Authorities are now prying children as young as four from their homes. The campaign reflects the convictions of Xi Jinping, who said the country needs to reach children as babies “so that the red gene seeps into their blood and permeates their hearts.” www.wsj.com/world/china/...

Wonderful to talk about the past, present & future of military competition in beautiful Idaho. Very impressed by the level of interest in foreign and defense policy from BSU students & Idahoans young and old. Thanks again to the Boise Committee on Foreign Relations for the kind invitation.

Fascinating discovering the vibrant Basque culture in Boise, Idaho. The more one travels this vast land, the more one realizes it defies easy generalizations.

“Discoveries made on its (US) soil have earned it 304 scientific Nobels—far more than for any other country. But only about 70% of those prizes went to American-born scientists, and just eight Americans have won for work done abroad.” www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

I'm looking forward to talking about the past and future of great power war at the Boise Committee on Foreign Relations next week. The Boise Committee, like its fellow national chapters, has a noble mission and a rich history. boisecfr.org/event-6318446 (1/2)

This declassified 1964 Policy Planning paper debating (and ultimately arguing against) preventive strikes on China’s nuclear program, written only a few months before the PRC’s nuclear test at Lop Nur, is one of the more fascinating historical documents I’ve read in a while

I learned a lot from my engagement with members of the Dutch national security community (some of whom preferred not to feature on the group photo) @hcss.bsky.social The insights shared from those with experience in training Ukrainian personnel were particularly informative. hcss.nl/news/a-littl...

We were extremely pleased to welcome Iskander Rehman to CSDS for a discussion about Artificial Intelligence and the Nuclear analogy. The dialogue was a chance to learn about Iskander's research at RAND and his recent work. Thanks for joining us, Iskander! @irehman.bsky.social @rand.org #AI #nuclear

I enjoyed discussing AI & nuclear stability in Brussels today & having the opportunity to highlight some of the groundbreaking work on AI & national security by my colleagues @rand.org . Many thanks to @luissimonn.bsky.social at Vrije Universiteit Brussel & the team at NATO DPP.

Great to talk about the past, present & future of proxy warfare, authoritarian military coordination & military experimentation—from the Spanish Civil War to the war in Ukraine—with our Dutch allies @hcss.bsky.social (especially the same week their F35s shot down marauding Russian drones)

Looking forward to spending some time over the next few weeks engaging with friends & colleagues across the pond. On September 11, I'll be giving a talk at @hcss.bsky.social entitled A “Little World War”: Lessons and Insights from the Spanish Civil War for Contemporary Planners. (1/3)

I just received my first copy of the book!

@stevenerlanger.bsky.social on Europe, the US and security guarantees with my take in the @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/w...

The debate about acquiring nuclear weapons in Japan and South Korea is increasingly coming into the mainstream. www.reuters.com/investigatio...

“South Korea &Australia could probably afford to debt-finance any increase to 3.5% into at least the late 2030s without raising taxes, cutting spending or going into debt distress.” Nuanced, balanced piece on the fraught politics of Asian defense spending. economist.com/asia/2025/08...

Fascinating piece on the dark—and largely underexplored—history of tsarist imperialism in Alaska

In his lunch with Trump in June, “Munir essentially offered Pakistan as a trusted back channel between the US and its adversaries Iran and China.”

After a very long hiatus, Iron Imperator will finally be available in kindle format again on Amazon at the end of the month: www.amazon.com/Iron-Imperat...

“Ukraine’s battlefield reality rewards improvisation, rapid decisions, & decentralized execution. As one brigade commander noted about his unit receiving staff training in a SAG-U report: “We appreciate the instruction, but we plan our fights in 3 hours, not 3 days. mwi.westpoint.edu/learn-or-los...

"At the heart of the proposal was an innovative concept: fitting compact, side-mounted rocket boosters to small or medium-sized drones so they can perform instantaneous, high-G maneuvers in the final seconds before a missile impact."

It took a while, but my RAND profile page is now properly up, with my publications since I joined the organization. More soon to come—most notably on the interaction between AI and nuclear issues. www.rand.org/about/people...

"The number of suspected Russian sabotage operations in Europe almost quadrupled between 2023 and 2024, with more than 30 incidents recorded last year." www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

Entertaining monster thread on Thucydides by the indefatigable and unsparing Neville Morley.

South Korea, with its industrial brawn & efficient mass production techniques, has a lot to offer the US's undersized & overstretched shipbuilding industry, as two of my @rand.org colleagues noted in May. It's past time to leverage allied capacity. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

Due to a rift between my grandfather and his father, I never knew much about my great-great grandfather E.A. Sandford Fawcett’s life & role during WWI. Rooting around in the National Archives, my brother has made some remarkable discoveries (1/3)

"The US cannot sell any Virginia-class nuclear submarines to Australia without doubling its production rate, because it is making too few for its own defence, the navy’s nominee for chief of operations has told Congress." www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

"DPRK troops are learning about combined arms warfare and the operation of strike & reconnaissance drones, EW systems, & other technologies. Moscow has helped upgrade North Korea’s KN-23 ballistic missiles, which have since targeted Ukrainian urban centers." www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

Best coverage I've seen thus far on the behind-the-scenes divisions and politicking that led to the US-EU trade deal: www.ft.com/content/85d5...

My best guess is this is just the end of the beginning. Both the EU and US will take opposite lessons from this. For the EU, it’s embarrassing, proves the need to stand up for itself. It discredits appeasers and empowers hardliners. For the US, it shows EU weak and will fold. 1/

Since joining RAND, I've been fortunate to be part of its Geopolitics of AGI initiative, a multidisciplinary team of economists, technologists, political scientists & philosophers (among others),all grappling with one of the most fundamental questions of our time-the potential emergence of AGI (1/3)

Making sense of the AI revolution | @irehman.bsky.social engelsbergideas.com/essays/makin...

More cutting-edge, timely work from RAND colleagues on Russia's perceptions of the British and French nuclear deterrents. www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

"The consultations initiated by the two countries don’t aim for anything rivaling Germany’s nuclear-sharing agreement with the U.S.(...) While permanently stationing French warheads in Germany isn’t ruled out, it isn’t likely, at least in the short run." www.wsj.com/world/europe...

"When China hit back by imposing strict controls on exports of rare earths, Europe was caught in the crossfire. “Why aren’t we in Europe getting any gallium, if the goal is to hit the U.S.?” asked Groothuis." Interesting piece. www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...

An excellent review by @peterdombrowski.bsky.social of an excellent book on British grand strategy by @wdjames.bsky.social networks.h-net.org/group/discus...

More evidence that US efforts to coerce China in a Taiwan conflict by closing Straits of Malacca unlikely to be successful www.wsj.com/world/china/...

"You might disperse 1,000,000 men over these immense areas & yet only provide more prey to the dominant Power. On the other hand, these conditions will be reversed when the balance of sea power and air power changes.." Churchill discussing the dire situation in the Asian theater in early 1942.

"The highest-rated language for attractiveness? Despite the supposed allure (at least among Anglophones) of French and Italian, it was Tok Pisin, an English creole spoken in Papua New Guinea. The lowest? Chechen." www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

Australian friends--what would be the best book on the evolution of Australia's threat perceptions during the interwar years?

In addition to 49 Abrams tanks, Australia will also deploy a Wedgetail to protect aid corridors to Ukraine. Time for Europeans to think about what they would do to support Australian, Japanese & Korean friends, should a major military conflagration erupt in Asia. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

The EU unveiled “one of its strongest” packages of sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine, with measures that include targeting Rosneft’s refinery operations in India and restricting refined oil imports produced from Russian crude by third countries www.thehindu.com/business/Ind...