New Swedish military aid package to Ukraine includes: - Long-range drones "capable of striking Russian units and infrastructure deep inside their territory" (procurement from Ukr industry) - Advanced short-range air defence capability - Large procurement of ammunition, including long-range shells

"Sea denial is having a moment." Good, historically literate piece on the opportunities proffered by the maturation (& Ukrainian demonstration) of new technologies to implement age-old strategies of sea denial in defense of Taiwan: www.usni.org/magazines/pr...

Excellent video, but how disheartening--and patently surreal-- to see the young citizens of a model ally referencing US threats as a key driver in their desire to serve in their nation's military. www.dw.com/en/denmark-e...

In this debate, @maxboot.bsky.social and I made the case the Trump administration is doing real damage with threats to Greenland

Quite the chart

Excellent set of articles by Sinéad Baker @businessinsider.com highlighting another reason why it's in our interest to continue to support Ukraine: the training runs both ways, with Ukrainians imparting invaluable lessons to their less battle-hardened trainers www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-stun...

I mean, they’re not even reading the Melian Dialogue, just a couple of lines from it and a general vibe.

NEW from APLN: A comprehensive examination of how middle powers assess South China Sea escalation risks. Six experts analyse perspectives from 🇰🇷🇯🇵🇫🇷🇩🇪🇬🇧🇵🇭, revealing how this #maritime region connects Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security. www.apln.network/projects/mar...

I think a bit of mourning is appropriate. The liberal international order got a lot of flack, it was hard to explain (was it even real?), US hypocrisy, etc. But frankly it is the best global order that ever existed. The goal should be to salvage as much as possible. The alternative is so much worse.

I think this speech will be talked about for a long time, honestly.

Always a rousing experience to comb through British parliamentary debates during WWII. (Here Lt. Col. Rayner, MP for Totnes, in February 1942)

A remarkable find by my little sister in a family cellar—several hundred page volumes of diaries written by an ancestor from the French trenches of WWI. Here in 1915 he states that he has been hoping that "a major offensive will soon rid French soil of these barbarians. "

The @warontherocks.bsky.social holiday reading list is out. My two recommendations this year: @jrovner.bsky.social 's Strategy & Grand Strategy & The Arsenal of Democracy: Technology, Industry & Deterrence in an Age of Hard Choices by Ecyk Freymann & Harry Halem warontherocks.com/2025/11/the-...

"In America, the frontier bred a myth of conquest & continual striving — restless, inventive, & impatient with limits. In Australia, it was a myth of endurance & communal resilience." Great, historically-informed piece on 🇺🇸/🇦🇺 alliance in @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2025/11/how-...

"Before November ends, Russia will probably suffer its millionth casualty since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, based on current trends of about 1,000-1,200 soldiers killed or injured every day."

I remember the effect this stirring monologue by Andrew Neil , full of righteous fury and moral clarity, had on me ten years ago, after hours spent frantically checking on the safety and whereabouts of my family & loved ones in Paris. Well worth rewatching m.youtube.com/watch?v=WIKg...

On Veterans/Armistice Day, re-upping the piece that, out all of my essays for @warontherocks.bsky.social over the years, was perhaps the most meaningful—and enjoyable—to write warontherocks.com/2018/10/from...

What might the growing use and integration of advanced AI mean for nuclear stability and deterrence? Delighted to see this research get published today by the Modern War Institute at Westpoint: mwi.westpoint.edu/an-algorithm...

Fascinating paper from IFRI, and the framing itself is a sign of the times - a Europe-Russia power balance. The intro sets the scene in stark words: "European countries can no longer avoid the “Russian Question” as Russia has chosen war."

“By divine design, we have been put here, the archipelago has been put here,” said Rear Admiral Roy Trinidad, the Philippine Navy’s spokesperson. “It just so happened that we are the toll gate between the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean.” www.reuters.com/investigatio...

Possibly more relevant than sightings near airports

Lovely story on perhaps my favorite place in New York www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/n...

Project Gutenberg is one of those places that exemplifies what the internet was initially all about: studying, preserving, and celebrating the arts, especially the written word, and Greg Newby was a huge part of that. Thank you, Greg, and rest well.

I was just let go as part of this RIF, along with many dedicated and talented colleagues. I am now open to opportunities in defense and strategy across think tanks, FFRDCs and academia. RAND is a fine institution, and I am proud to have worked there.

"Authorities are now prying children as young as four from their homes. The campaign reflects the convictions of Xi Jinping, who said the country needs to reach children as babies “so that the red gene seeps into their blood and permeates their hearts.” www.wsj.com/world/china/...

Wonderful to talk about the past, present & future of military competition in beautiful Idaho. Very impressed by the level of interest in foreign and defense policy from BSU students & Idahoans young and old. Thanks again to the Boise Committee on Foreign Relations for the kind invitation.

Fascinating discovering the vibrant Basque culture in Boise, Idaho. The more one travels this vast land, the more one realizes it defies easy generalizations.

“Discoveries made on its (US) soil have earned it 304 scientific Nobels—far more than for any other country. But only about 70% of those prizes went to American-born scientists, and just eight Americans have won for work done abroad.” www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

I'm looking forward to talking about the past and future of great power war at the Boise Committee on Foreign Relations next week. The Boise Committee, like its fellow national chapters, has a noble mission and a rich history. boisecfr.org/event-6318446 (1/2)

This declassified 1964 Policy Planning paper debating (and ultimately arguing against) preventive strikes on China’s nuclear program, written only a few months before the PRC’s nuclear test at Lop Nur, is one of the more fascinating historical documents I’ve read in a while

I learned a lot from my engagement with members of the Dutch national security community (some of whom preferred not to feature on the group photo) @hcss.bsky.social The insights shared from those with experience in training Ukrainian personnel were particularly informative. hcss.nl/news/a-littl...

We were extremely pleased to welcome Iskander Rehman to CSDS for a discussion about Artificial Intelligence and the Nuclear analogy. The dialogue was a chance to learn about Iskander's research at RAND and his recent work. Thanks for joining us, Iskander! @irehman.bsky.social @rand.org #AI #nuclear

I enjoyed discussing AI & nuclear stability in Brussels today & having the opportunity to highlight some of the groundbreaking work on AI & national security by my colleagues @rand.org . Many thanks to @luissimonn.bsky.social at Vrije Universiteit Brussel & the team at NATO DPP.

Great to talk about the past, present & future of proxy warfare, authoritarian military coordination & military experimentation—from the Spanish Civil War to the war in Ukraine—with our Dutch allies @hcss.bsky.social (especially the same week their F35s shot down marauding Russian drones)

Looking forward to spending some time over the next few weeks engaging with friends & colleagues across the pond. On September 11, I'll be giving a talk at @hcss.bsky.social entitled A “Little World War”: Lessons and Insights from the Spanish Civil War for Contemporary Planners. (1/3)

I just received my first copy of the book!

@stevenerlanger.bsky.social on Europe, the US and security guarantees with my take in the @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/w...

The debate about acquiring nuclear weapons in Japan and South Korea is increasingly coming into the mainstream. www.reuters.com/investigatio...

“South Korea &Australia could probably afford to debt-finance any increase to 3.5% into at least the late 2030s without raising taxes, cutting spending or going into debt distress.” Nuanced, balanced piece on the fraught politics of Asian defense spending. economist.com/asia/2025/08...

Fascinating piece on the dark—and largely underexplored—history of tsarist imperialism in Alaska

In his lunch with Trump in June, “Munir essentially offered Pakistan as a trusted back channel between the US and its adversaries Iran and China.”

After a very long hiatus, Iron Imperator will finally be available in kindle format again on Amazon at the end of the month: www.amazon.com/Iron-Imperat...

“Ukraine’s battlefield reality rewards improvisation, rapid decisions, & decentralized execution. As one brigade commander noted about his unit receiving staff training in a SAG-U report: “We appreciate the instruction, but we plan our fights in 3 hours, not 3 days. mwi.westpoint.edu/learn-or-los...

"At the heart of the proposal was an innovative concept: fitting compact, side-mounted rocket boosters to small or medium-sized drones so they can perform instantaneous, high-G maneuvers in the final seconds before a missile impact."

It took a while, but my RAND profile page is now properly up, with my publications since I joined the organization. More soon to come—most notably on the interaction between AI and nuclear issues. www.rand.org/about/people...

"The number of suspected Russian sabotage operations in Europe almost quadrupled between 2023 and 2024, with more than 30 incidents recorded last year." www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

Entertaining monster thread on Thucydides by the indefatigable and unsparing Neville Morley.

South Korea, with its industrial brawn & efficient mass production techniques, has a lot to offer the US's undersized & overstretched shipbuilding industry, as two of my @rand.org colleagues noted in May. It's past time to leverage allied capacity. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...

Due to a rift between my grandfather and his father, I never knew much about my great-great grandfather E.A. Sandford Fawcett’s life & role during WWI. Rooting around in the National Archives, my brother has made some remarkable discoveries (1/3)