No there will not be an early election. A man with 400 seats will not risk half of them three years early to satisfy columnists’ belief in mandate fairies.

1/ With your help, we can create a more positive future for birds like Lapwing, Curlew, Redshank and Golden Plover. Donate today via www.bto.org/breeding... and support our breeding wader research. Thank you. #Ornithology

These events are starting to have the feeling of those ones you see advertised on scratty posters around universities by various Marxist fringe groups.

Where do #dcfc need to strengthen for 2026/7? And who might leave? www.patreon.com/posts/157909... (£ / free trial) New patrons can get 66% off their first month at the moment - making it just £1 for your first month's access to my entire archive of posts. Optimal for some post-season reading!

32.3ºC at Kew Gardens is the hottest May temperature on record at the station since records began in 1881, beating its previous May maximum by 2ºC (30.3ºC, 25th May 1922). It beat its maximum temperature date record for the 24th of May by OVER 2ºC (30.2ºC, 1922), exceptional.

They certainly had his number.

New Swingometer! The Makerfield by-election: High risk, high return. I take a look at the seat on which this Parliament turns open.substack.com/pub/swingome...

The reintroduction of White-tailed Eagle to Exmoor has been given the green light by Natural England, with up to 20 birds due to be released across the national park from this summer:

Whenever someone prominent accidentally shares an AI hallucination, people are like “this is why you have to double-check the output!” Which is absolutely true, but remember that AI proponents market it as a faster way to work. Which is not really true if you have to double check everything it does.

Nimesh Shah, a tax expert at accountancy firm Blick Rothenberg, reviewed the company accounts for the FT and said that they suggested money from Farage’s reality TV show appearance was not used to purchase the house.

I no longer post to X, but was made aware yesterday that the Saudi government official Turki Alalshikh started following my account there, along with several other accounts relating to #dcfc. We've no idea yet why he's taken the sudden interest, but the account appears to be real (7.3m followers).

VOTE NOW for Britain's Favourite Butterfly! 🦋 Flashy, adventurous or fantastically freaky. The UK is home to 60 species of butterfly, each with their own unique story. But who will be crowned the nation's favourite? 👑 Vote for your favourite 👉 britainsfavouritebutterfly.co.uk?utm_source=S...

The government isn't forcing churches and community centres and town halls across the country to fly the Ukrainian flag. People are doing it themselves because we see a battle and we know which side we are on. There are lots of ways in which Reform is wildly out of touch with Britain.

Reform are very good at moving the goalposts. They said they’d win Gorton and Denton (lost by 12pts), win Wales (lost by 6pts), destroy the Tories in 2026 (PNS rose vs 2025) and win six London boroughs (won one). Each time journalists concluded those outcomes were clear from the outset

"The people are friendly" They're even 'engaged in politics" What did the Times Whitehall editor expect? These aren't the tribes of northern barbarians depicted in the opening scenes of Gladiator 🤦

The May 2026 elections showed the governing party at historically rare levele of unpopularity. Ipsos finds it beats the opposition party that tops the polls. How worried should Reform be about this kind of finding?

From landslide to leadership crisis: where did it all go wrong for Keir Starmer? My piece with Mark Bennister for @uk.theconversation.com

It was always going to be . . . Cast your vote now for Britain's Favourite Butterfly with @savebutterflies.bsky.social britainsfavouritebutterfly.co.uk

Something from me on Andy Burnham as.ft.com/r/195a4775-9...

Any other Labour candidate standing in the Makerfield by-election would get annihilated...

Does that include the £5mn?

Not just is Burnham particularly popular among Labour voters, but in the North West as a whole his favourability ratings are 51% to 29%. Not just net positive, but clearly so. Very rare.

Farage says his £5 million gift was a “reward” for Brexit. The rest of us were rewarded with higher bills and years of chaos. This grifter must not become prime minister.

Quite the story from Sky – Nigel Farage bought a £1.4m property *in cash* after getting the £5m gift supposedly intended for his security. Reform say, very specifically: "The offer and process for purchase of this property commenced before the gift". news.sky.com/story/nigel-...

BREAKING: Reform UK leader Nigel Farage bought £1.4m house in cash shortly after receiving £5m personal gift from crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne. Reform says the "offer and process" of buying the property commenced before gift. Intriguing story by @alifortescuenews.bsky.social

As a reminder, if Farage is found to have breached rules, the standards committee (cross-party plus lay members, which considers reports from the commissioner) decides on a sanction. A suspension of 10+ days can trigger a recall election for the MP.

Full story: Nigel Farage faces inquiry over £5m gift from crypto billionaire - a gift first revealed by the great @annaisaac.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

BREAKING - Parliamentary Standards Commissioner will launch an investigation into Farage's £5m donation.

On occasion, we all do battle with motivational paralysis Unable to perform some simple task Trapped at the stage of analysis

There are few more important decisions in politics than who should lead the government. Changing PM mid-term is a completely normal part of parliamentary government. Yet Labour has a process that is almost structurally designed to produce dither, dysfunction, panic and blind decision-making.

Mahmood calling for Starmer's resignation? LoL. Starmer hasn't allowed her to be hard enough on asylum seekers? She is the expression of what's wrong with Labour.

"Keir, I'm sorry I've written your name down, I hope I'm wrong"

It would be a nice touch if Labour MPs lever out Keir Starmer using a crowbar made by his dad.

It's a neck and neck race between number of ministerial aides resigning and number of newly elected Reform councillors departing.

Starmer just announced 'full national ownership' of British Steel. Labour are bringing emergency legislation, because 'public ownership is in the public interest' So this government CAN nationalise. And they can do it quickly. Why, then, are we not bringing our water into public ownership? 🧐

Starmer has serious flaws as a leader, which it's doubtful he can overcome. The party is right to debate a change. But you get better decision-making in a choice between *actual alternatives*, not "this" and "something else". To misquote John Major, the alternatives should stand up - or shut up.

Prior to the local elections, I outlined the best metrics to use in assessing the results, as well as produced some benchmarks for the parties. So, how did it all pan out? Here's my hopefully firm and fair assessment, with some extra analysis and lots of charts thrown in.

Angela Rayner is not wrong in saying Labour 'are in danger of becoming a party of the well-off'. In April @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social had Labour leading among the Comfortably off and Financially stable segments, and 4th!! among those Just coping or Financially vulnerable.

The “Blue Labour” strategy still being promoted by some on Labour right is premised on being able to win social conservatives while holding on to social liberals. Failure state for this strategy is failing to win social cons while alienating social liberals. Here is a map of that failure state:

Reform has done well nationally but flopped in London. They only won Havering (which is basically Essex) and lost all their other targets heavily.

Not really sure about this. While Reform are making significant gains, they are roughly confined to the most Brexity third of the country. They are only getting as far as areas that would translate to MPs in the low 200s and falling short in their majority markers.

A brief bit of Burnhamology to ease you into election day as.ft.com/r/f1cbaa73-6...

Always worth voting...

Nearly 60% of the wards Labour still hold are estimated to have voted more than 52% Remain, just 6% of Labour wins so far have come in wards 60% plus Leave. By conrast, 73% of Reform's wins so far have come in Leave 60% plus wards (and just 1% in wards more than 52% Remain)

Important data point here: “A sharp fall in Labour's performance is accompanied more often by an above average Green performance than it is by a strong Reform performance”. The Greens have already hurt Labour even before any direct gains.

It was clear a year ago that Labour was neglecting its progressive flank and it shouldn’t have taken No 10 this long to recognise that reality.

Bonkers but fun guesstheparty.co.uk