A few more aurora shots from the other night - the first shot is the first shot I took when I arrived at the seafront and shows how well it evolved in those 40 minutes.

Grim once again - will get back to weather tweeting once this uni work is cleared off 👍🏻

In a warming climate, extreme cold can still occur. The occurrence of an extreme cold event does not mean that climate change caused it, nor does it mean climate change isn't real. But on sufficiently long timescales, extreme cold events are occurring less often. doi.org/10.1126/scia...

In weather model news, the Met Office Numerical Weather Prediction models have all moved to a new operational suite today. MOGREPS-Global and UKMO Global both now go out to 10 days with improved accuracy for cloud forecasting, winter temperature forecasts and precipitation.

Me and the aurora last night (forgot to post this one).

The aurora was definitely worth the 45 minutes of waiting in the cold I must say.

This was taken over Germany this evening.

Substorm ongoing

The crescendo of the aurora seen earlier, have had to actually turn down the vibrance as it was so colourful.

JUST SEEN A FIREBALL BELOW ORION - GLOWED GREEN

WOW WOW WOW

Diffuse mono glow visible faintly by eye south of the Plough

TWILIGHT AURORA 17:30 UTC HERNE BAY

It looks fairly likely we'll have aurora on camera again when it's dark enough although definitely not as strong as it was yesterday. Solar wind is still very strong and Bt is increasing which will all help.

The night of the blob. I've never seen so many proton aurora blobs from any other displays before and they even imitated a faux oval at one point; they were in every direction and even overhead with intense brightness before vanishing as quickly as they arrived.

I can only apologise to my dear neighbours who were probably tired of hearing me shout BLOBBY at every blob that appeared last night

There she blows through the cloud 00:47 UTC Herne Bay

Proton aurora at 21:25 UTC here in Herne Bay, shot at 17 mm.

This was from a few moments ago. Over an hour now of constant naked-eye aurora and two really nice substorms which exploded across the sky. #NorthernLights #Devon

We seem to have entered a +Bz flux rope so the aurora will eventually lose its steam - what a display though!

Mr Blobby aurora

GET OUTSIDE IF YOU HAVE CLEAR SKIES - DATA INCREDIBLY SUGGESTIVE OF FURTHER GROWTH. BZ DOWN TO -43

Next substorm will be massive - oval is rapidly rushing south

Red aurora on horizon 20:33 UTC Herne Bay

Very faint red beginning to appear from a light polluted 49°N

Aurora brightening quickly at 61°N, note the difference in the last 7 minutes as the substorm very quickly recovers.

Bt of 51 and a Bz of -24 is perfect for building aurora quickly - will keep an eye out on development

Looking forward to watching what unfolds on the aurora webcams over Europe soon. The CME impact has reached Earth and a substorm will likely be triggered. Strange auroral forms may take place today. Here is a live look at Abisko. go.theauroraguy.com/webcams

EXPECT VERY BRIGHT AURORA WHEN DATA HITS - EXTRAORDINARY

And....no CME

S4 radiation storm imminent and no CME just yet but must be very close - cloudy to all hell here

Protons are rising very rapidly, expecting impact of CME soon

The fast (~1400 km/s) CME that launched yesterday is forecast to arrive sometime Tues. Probably during the day in the UK, so not great for aurora. But there's a fast solar wind stream near Earth, and the precise location/timing of that could really change the CME propagation.

Yesterday’s CME is looking very quick to arrive, HUXt seems to be the latest out of the batch of models with an arrival at 11:30 UTC tomorrow although others are more like overnight tonight. We will have to see what happens 👀

A significant CME appears to have erupted from the Sun within the last hour or so, and it looks very quick based on the current imagery. I'll wait for any modelling to firm up on a date of arrival but I wouldn't be surprised to see a G3 watch.

@mathewjowens.bsky.social I hope you'll be firing up HUXt full pelt for that CME coming off the Sun

There is definitely a downward trend in the 850 hPa temperature ensembles from around the 23rd, although just how cold it will be depends on how any undercut from the Atlantic will go. A cleaner undercut would likely draw in colder air but the spread is too great to make any judgment currently.

10°C and sunny spells - not too bad

One of these models will end up with egg on its face - place your bets on the computer overlords or physics-based modelling, even a fair amount of uncertainty on that milder spike around the 22nd.

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The amount of uncertainty is incredible in the Atlantic - I feel I am much more equipped to predict when the world is going to end like the Mayans did in 2012 compared to whatever the outlook might look like.

It'll turn windier for the far SE in the coming hours, although not as windy as it was looking 3-4 days ago - perhaps it'll be windy enough for water companies to turn off all the water supply once again 😁

What a vile evening.

No real change to this at the minute - models are clueless

Highly recommend for rainy walks like today - shall be dancing along in the street. Have a good rainy one everyone 😄

Globally, no single day in 2025 was cooler than its 1991-2020 average. climate.copernicus.eu/global-clima...

A wet day to come tomorrow, the main focus for the highest rainfall totals looks to stretch from SW England into parts of SE England as a frontal wave (which then looks to develop into a shallow low-pressure system) moves across the south.

176 tiny maps (1850-2025) Maps of temperature anomalies for each year. The progression to warmer, redder colours is evident over virtually the entire planet. This 'small multiples' #dataviz approach is effective to show that nowhere is escaping from the warming due to us burning fossil fuels.

As the climate data for 2025 continues to be released, it's time to update various data visualisations. First - the global climate stripes for 1850-2025. A third darkest red stripe is added. The last 11 years have been the warmest 11 years on record. A sequence that is unlikely to be broken soon.

2025 adds another dark red stripe to the climate stripes New data confirms Earth’s third-warmest year on record, and 11th warmest year in a row. Created by Prof Ed Hawkins, the 2025 stripes reflect a century of climate science and provide a clear call for climate action. 👉 https://rdg.ac/4sGfjPX