There’s baby geese by the Whiteknights lake now, love it. 😄

The sight of anvils kindly reminds me that spring will soon be on its way and the idea of CAPE will emerge again from the dead 😂

The model output thread on Netweather has reached over a thousand pages and I’ve still not seen a foot of snow, shameful.

In the last two weeks, 9 out of 14 days have had measurable rainfall here in Herne Bay. It’s amazing to ever think it was looking sunny and dry at one point!

On the topic of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, a recent paper seems to link Arctic amplification with a dampening of the downward influence of SSWs (i.e. milder surface temperatures compared to previous outbreaks). More SSWs ≠ a cooling influence on winter weather in mid-lats.

Grey and gloomy - must be January

The frontal rain is coming to deliver more rain overnight and into Friday - drier and cloudy over the weekend before next week looks to be a bit of a stinker (especially the first half).

A lot of spread (surprise surprise) on the ensemble suite for options going into the second week of February, and how cold it might get - spread seems to intensify after the 6th. It'll probably get colder, although by how much is to be determined (and probably not for a while!).

This should now be working. 😄

Good news - IFTTT now supports BlueSky. I shall get on it shortly

Amazing imagery of #StormKristin from 04 UTC this morning; a tight area of dry air just backing behind the cold front seems indicative of a CCB jet, perhaps some influence of a SJ in there too but that one requires more than satellite imagery to deduce properly.

It’s important to fake it feeling like spring for as long as possible until spring does actually arrive - 9C, calm winds and sunshine this afternoon 😁

I'm glad we're clear on any stratospheric reversal of zonal winds then.

Exhibit A for why building on a floodplain is a disaster waiting to happen - this is from the River Clyst at Topsham in Devon. www.bbc.co.uk/weatherwatch...

A brief respite from the rain tomorrow and Thursday - calmer with sunny spells. A yellow warning for ice has been issued from midnight tomorrow and lasting until 10 am due to the rainfall seen today and clearer skies overnight. Frosty again Thursday before more fronts on Friday.

Several sites have provisionally set new January daily rainfall records, some are shown in the table below 👇 Katesbridge has provisionally recorded its wettest day on record, while Plymouth (Mountbatten) also saw a notable record at a site with over 100 years of observations

Here comes more rain

The new weather station gateway is certainly a step up from the previous one - it’s only taken me 6 years to run a gateway that saves data locally 😬

An ever so slight mist here seems to be present along here today so it’s a little colder than I thought it’d be by this time today - sat around 5°C.

Sources tell me they saw this at Roswell in 1947

More time on Meteociel awaits

⚠️ Two yellow weather warnings issued ⚠️ Rain across southern England and much of Wales Wales and southwest England: Monday 1500 - Tuesday 1200 Southeast England: Tuesday 0000 - 1200 Latest info 👉 bit.ly/WxWarning Stay #WeatherAware⚠️

A yellow warning for rain has been issued starting at midnight on Tuesday and lasting till midday on Tuesday with 15 - 25 mm of rain expected widely.

A deep area of low pressure is set to form close to the UK next week, meaning unsettled weather with a risk of coastal gales and heavy rain on Tuesday There is some uncertainty in the track of this low and where the strongest winds will be, so keep an eye on the forecast ⚠️

It's safe to say any expected real 'cold spell' that was a possibility a week or so ago has largely vanished from all models; the undercutting Atlantic trough no longer undercutting in a conducive way for cold. Unsettled and wetter for the timebeing.

The struggles of weather model watching.

Very high sea-levels this morning at Newlyn in Cornwall, thanks to this storm coinciding with a (moderate) spring tide.

A few more aurora shots from the other night - the first shot is the first shot I took when I arrived at the seafront and shows how well it evolved in those 40 minutes.

Grim once again - will get back to weather tweeting once this uni work is cleared off 👍🏻

In a warming climate, extreme cold can still occur. The occurrence of an extreme cold event does not mean that climate change caused it, nor does it mean climate change isn't real. But on sufficiently long timescales, extreme cold events are occurring less often. doi.org/10.1126/scia...

In weather model news, the Met Office Numerical Weather Prediction models have all moved to a new operational suite today. MOGREPS-Global and UKMO Global both now go out to 10 days with improved accuracy for cloud forecasting, winter temperature forecasts and precipitation.

Me and the aurora last night (forgot to post this one).

The aurora was definitely worth the 45 minutes of waiting in the cold I must say.

This was taken over Germany this evening.

Substorm ongoing

The crescendo of the aurora seen earlier, have had to actually turn down the vibrance as it was so colourful.

JUST SEEN A FIREBALL BELOW ORION - GLOWED GREEN

WOW WOW WOW

Diffuse mono glow visible faintly by eye south of the Plough

TWILIGHT AURORA 17:30 UTC HERNE BAY

It looks fairly likely we'll have aurora on camera again when it's dark enough although definitely not as strong as it was yesterday. Solar wind is still very strong and Bt is increasing which will all help.

The night of the blob. I've never seen so many proton aurora blobs from any other displays before and they even imitated a faux oval at one point; they were in every direction and even overhead with intense brightness before vanishing as quickly as they arrived.

I can only apologise to my dear neighbours who were probably tired of hearing me shout BLOBBY at every blob that appeared last night

There she blows through the cloud 00:47 UTC Herne Bay

Proton aurora at 21:25 UTC here in Herne Bay, shot at 17 mm.

This was from a few moments ago. Over an hour now of constant naked-eye aurora and two really nice substorms which exploded across the sky. #NorthernLights #Devon

We seem to have entered a +Bz flux rope so the aurora will eventually lose its steam - what a display though!

Mr Blobby aurora

GET OUTSIDE IF YOU HAVE CLEAR SKIES - DATA INCREDIBLY SUGGESTIVE OF FURTHER GROWTH. BZ DOWN TO -43

Next substorm will be massive - oval is rapidly rushing south