ID, please? 🪪 4 in 10 (40%) Brits now oppose the introduction of a national identity card scheme, while 32% support. In July 2025, 19% opposed the idea and 57% were in support 👇

As we wait for other senior Labour figures to call for Starmer to resign, worth pondering this: even before the latest Mandelson saga, Starmer's likeability ratings were low. But this isn't that unusual for Labour, leaders have always been less liked than the party in our polling - except Starmer

🔴Net likeability ratings for Starmer (-50) equal Corbyn’s previous low, while the party is less liked than any time in Ipsos trends going back to 2007 (-22). But Labour is still more liked than its leader – and more than the other parties.

Rachel Reeves continues to have the worst net satisfaction scores Ipsos has ever recorded for a Chancellor of the Exchequer. 📊12% satisfied 📊73% dissatisfied 📊Net -61

Good defence of 'the public' quoting @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social work w/ @britishfuture.bsky.social: 1/2 Brits wrongly think net migration went up last year. Clearly the public are not migration or statistics experts. But they notice the world around them & react to it, if not always in expected ways

The latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Political Monitor brought some respite to established political parties 1) Kemi Badenoch's satisfaction scores continue to improve, incl. among Conservative supporters, from +16 among Tory voters in Nov to +49 now. Still negative -31 among the general public.

Only 15% are satisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as PM – hardly changed from 13% in Nov 2025 77% are dissatisfied, giving him a net rating of -62.

NEW Voting intention from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social shows some signs of recovery from Labour and Conservatives Reform UK 30% (-3 since November 2025) Labour 22% (+4) Conservative 19% (+3) Greens 12% (-3) Lib Dems 12% (nc) Others 5% (-1) Reform UK lead: +8 (down from +15) So what's been happening?

First leaderboard of 2026📊 We asked the public 'to what extent, if at all, do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the following politicians and political parties?’.

When the public are asked whether Keir Starmer would make a better Prime Minister than a host of leading politicians, Burnham is the only one to come out on top, leading the current PM by 7 points. However, Burnham’s lead is down from 13 points last month.

If given the choice between the Labour Party led by Keir Starmer and Reform UK led by Nigel Farage, Britons are slightly more likely to favour Labour – however…

electoral Christmas?

The new cleavage in British politics seems to be whether Britain is indeed broken. Is it? @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social data says: 1) It feels broken. 80% say Britain is getting worse as a place to live, only 3% better. In 2025, Economic Optimism fell to the lowest we've ever recorded since the 1970s.

In April 2025, we asked the public how a possible defection from Jenrick would impact their perceptions of Reform UK. Amongst Reform UK voters perceptions were likely to improve, but it would make less of a positive difference for Labour and Conservative voters.

How will this go down? In April 2025, @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social found that for most, Jenrick defecting to Reform would make no difference or make them more negative about Reform. But Reform 2024 voters were much more positive! and Conservative voters a bit more positive.

NEW @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social : as expected Brits increasingly likely to think the EU is most important to Britain, over US or Commonwealth. And more think US is using its power for bad around the world.

I think this is very poorly misunderstood. The reason why the 'the UK, a dangerous crimehole' stuff matters is that people in other countries who might invest in the UK see it online and believe it, not because the electoral constituency for it is particularly large or significant.

For a summary of our latest research on how financial insecurity is the prompt for Labour's losses, see this pithy summary written by Nuffield College postdoctoral research fellow, Justin Robinson: theconversation.com/why-economic...

Starmer used the first 2026 cabinet to refocus on the cost of living, warning that voters at the next election will judge the gov't on whether “people feel better off”. But,voters are judging now. Reform UK has a clear lead among Brits who are struggling financially from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social

Starmer betting it all on people starting to see improvements this year. But in our latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social milestones polling, very few saw progress since election, living standards at the very bottom. PM might be frustrated with the slow pace of progress, but so are Brits horturl.at/Sysbv

I kid you not. When I was at uni, political science, in the late '00s, we were debating whether Francis Fukuyama was right

The political time is probably ripe. Last year one in two favoured a closer trade relationship with the EU even if it hurt trade with the US. Whatever happens now with Maduro and Venezuela is likely to worsen Brits' views of the US and suspect we'll see a jump in this chart

It's true that extent of hatred towards Starmer and Reeves seems to be confounding people - not just pollsters, also heard this from people on the left who are not at all friendly to Labour. As the article mentions, both have hit record lows in our @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social records

I set 2025 @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling over a melody and got The Who Won’t get fooled again: When Labour took office, they were on a mission, or five. But through 2025, the British public didn't think the gov't would achieve their missions. Why this lack of confidence? shorturl.at/eP9ML

A lot to agree with in here. (More?) proof that Labour's strategy isn't working is this chart I've shared before from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social. Labour are losing voters to both the left and right, and it's getting worse. They were holding on to 54% of their 2024 voters in June, 50% Sept, 40% Nov.

The government has not made a convincing case for postponing inaugural mayor elections in Essex, Sussex, Hampshire, and Norfolk and Suffolk. @akashpaun.bsky.social says elections in priority areas should be held in May 2027 at the very latest www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/mayo...

Holyrood Voting Intention: Constituency: SNP: 35% (+1) RFM: 18% (+4) LAB: 16% (-7) CON: 11% (+1) LDM: 9% (=) GRN: 9% (=) Regional List: SNP: 28% (+2) LAB: 18% (-4) GRN: 17% (+2) RFM: 17% (+1) CON: 12% (+2) LDM: 7% (-1) Via @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social, 27 Nov - 3 Dec. Changes w/ 12-18 Jun.

NEW @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social voting intention, write-up from below. What's different/similar to GB more widely? Similar: in the age of political fragmentation, holding on to your base is crucial. SNP are doing that well in Scotland, Reform across Britain. Labour are not.

Mayoral elections in new Devolution Priority Programme postponed to 2028. Some political and local democracy implications. And were they guaranteed Reform wins? 1) What do these areas look like? Our @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social MRP found they tend to have relatively high quality of life.

💷How did this week's Budget land with Brits? Badly. From @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Around half each say it made them more concerned about the economy, their finances, businesses, public services. We're back to levels in March, undoing some of the improvements in perceptions from the Spending Review

Which party has the best policies on asylum and immigration? A tie between Reform UK and none/don't know. Only 7% think Labour, behind the Greens' 10% and just above the Conservatives' 5%. From our latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Political Monitor.

Labour now down to 18% in our latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social voting intention, the joint lowest we've ever had them - prev. May 2009 (expenses scandal, economic crisis). What's happening in 3 charts ...

NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos 📊Highest vote share Ipsos has ever recorded for the Green Party 📊Labour drop to 18%, equal to their prev. lowest vote share recorded by Ipsos (in May 09) 📊Reform UK drop 1 pt since Sept, but Labour’s 4 point slide means Reform’s lead has extended to +15

🗳️NEW from @ipsosgroup.bsky.social Democracy tracker out with a very interesting write up from @politico.eu . Key highlights: Democracy is not seen to be working well in most countries. Sweden remains a happy exception, but the impact of political instability is clear in France & Netherlands

Cyber attacks can have serious economic and reputational impacts for businesses, and turns out for our entire economy. At @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social we found 7 in 10 large businesses have a cyber security strategy, but only 57% of medium businesses and 2 in 5 high-income charities.

Can the Civil Service help deliver this government's priorities? Our new @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social and @instituteforgovernment.org.uk poll finds 1/2 Brits are not confident the Civil Service can solve the most important issues facing Britain, or deliver major projects. Not ideal for a gov't that...

Great to team up with @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social to find out what the public think about the civil service www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...

I like this from @instituteforgovernment.org.uk: "government is hard", a lesson all parties who make it into gvt eventually learn. But I think the public have know this for a while, and don't think anyone is up for the task. The conundrum for Lab & Cons is Reform voters back them, but theirs don't.

New VI from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social comes with many historic lows for Labour this #LabourConference2025 1) 22% Labour vote share is the lowest we've recorded for them since June 2009, at the time when Britain was still grappling with the fallout from the financial crash.

NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos 📉22% is the lowest we’ve recorded for Labour since June 2009 📉14% is the lowest VI share we’ve ever seen (since 1976) for the Conservatives

Introduction of #DigitalID generating some interesting arguments. Worth noting national ID has broad support, but after considering a range of pros and cons, the public is split on Digital ID specifically. From @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social

As ministers are getting to grips with their new briefs, 3 things @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling tells us about public expectations & mood: 1) Public priorities are the NHS and bread & butter issues (energy bills, econ stability, living standards). They've been the same for some time

📊 Immigration remains Briton's top concern, up 8pts since July (48%). Concern is strongest with Reform UK supporters (84%) in line with Farage’s ‘mass deportation’ plan announced this morning. Labour voters are less worried (33%). Full report 👉 bit.ly/3HDN2a9

With calls today to prevent children from using VPNs to access porn sites, new @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social data shows 7 in 10 Brits think under 18s will find it easy to get around #OnlineSafetyAct safeguards.

Votes at 16% is not hugely popular among the general public - was actually the least popular policy from Labour's manifesto that we tested @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social

#WelfareBill back in Commons later this week. The debate over last few months seems to have moved public opinion closer to Labour backbenchers. Full data from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social here www.ipsos.com/en-uk/six-te...

#NHS 10 year plan released today, so here are 3 points from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling on @nationalvoices.bsky.social i-statements: 1. joined up services: people with long-term conditions, who likely interact with more services, more often, report not being supported to manage their health

NEW Scottish Political Monitor from @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social also with our new methodology - gold standard probability sampling. Findings below. Many familiar themes from GB politics of the last year, but playing out a bit differently in the Scottish political system

We @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social published our first VI since the election with a fresh new methodology. Telephone has served us well, but we have now moved to our online probability KnowledgePanel. Some points for the methodologically-inclined among you:

🚨NEW @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social voting intention exclusive for the @telegraphnews.bsky.social / NEW methodology / Reform lead at 9 points 🚨 Reform UK 34% Labour 25% Conservatives 15% Lib Dems 11% Green 9% Record lead for Reform Record low share with Ipsos for the Conservatives