I set 2025 @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling over a melody and got The Who Won’t get fooled again: When Labour took office, they were on a mission, or five. But through 2025, the British public didn't think the gov't would achieve their missions. Why this lack of confidence? shorturl.at/eP9ML

A lot to agree with in here. (More?) proof that Labour's strategy isn't working is this chart I've shared before from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social. Labour are losing voters to both the left and right, and it's getting worse. They were holding on to 54% of their 2024 voters in June, 50% Sept, 40% Nov.

The government has not made a convincing case for postponing inaugural mayor elections in Essex, Sussex, Hampshire, and Norfolk and Suffolk. @akashpaun.bsky.social says elections in priority areas should be held in May 2027 at the very latest www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/mayo...

Holyrood Voting Intention: Constituency: SNP: 35% (+1) RFM: 18% (+4) LAB: 16% (-7) CON: 11% (+1) LDM: 9% (=) GRN: 9% (=) Regional List: SNP: 28% (+2) LAB: 18% (-4) GRN: 17% (+2) RFM: 17% (+1) CON: 12% (+2) LDM: 7% (-1) Via @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social, 27 Nov - 3 Dec. Changes w/ 12-18 Jun.

NEW @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social voting intention, write-up from below. What's different/similar to GB more widely? Similar: in the age of political fragmentation, holding on to your base is crucial. SNP are doing that well in Scotland, Reform across Britain. Labour are not.

Mayoral elections in new Devolution Priority Programme postponed to 2028. Some political and local democracy implications. And were they guaranteed Reform wins? 1) What do these areas look like? Our @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social MRP found they tend to have relatively high quality of life.

💷How did this week's Budget land with Brits? Badly. From @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Around half each say it made them more concerned about the economy, their finances, businesses, public services. We're back to levels in March, undoing some of the improvements in perceptions from the Spending Review

Which party has the best policies on asylum and immigration? A tie between Reform UK and none/don't know. Only 7% think Labour, behind the Greens' 10% and just above the Conservatives' 5%. From our latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Political Monitor.

Labour now down to 18% in our latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social voting intention, the joint lowest we've ever had them - prev. May 2009 (expenses scandal, economic crisis). What's happening in 3 charts ...

NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos 📊Highest vote share Ipsos has ever recorded for the Green Party 📊Labour drop to 18%, equal to their prev. lowest vote share recorded by Ipsos (in May 09) 📊Reform UK drop 1 pt since Sept, but Labour’s 4 point slide means Reform’s lead has extended to +15

🗳️NEW from @ipsosgroup.bsky.social Democracy tracker out with a very interesting write up from @politico.eu . Key highlights: Democracy is not seen to be working well in most countries. Sweden remains a happy exception, but the impact of political instability is clear in France & Netherlands

Cyber attacks can have serious economic and reputational impacts for businesses, and turns out for our entire economy. At @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social we found 7 in 10 large businesses have a cyber security strategy, but only 57% of medium businesses and 2 in 5 high-income charities.

Can the Civil Service help deliver this government's priorities? Our new @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social and @instituteforgovernment.org.uk poll finds 1/2 Brits are not confident the Civil Service can solve the most important issues facing Britain, or deliver major projects. Not ideal for a gov't that...

Great to team up with @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social to find out what the public think about the civil service www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/...

I like this from @instituteforgovernment.org.uk: "government is hard", a lesson all parties who make it into gvt eventually learn. But I think the public have know this for a while, and don't think anyone is up for the task. The conundrum for Lab & Cons is Reform voters back them, but theirs don't.

New VI from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social comes with many historic lows for Labour this #LabourConference2025 1) 22% Labour vote share is the lowest we've recorded for them since June 2009, at the time when Britain was still grappling with the fallout from the financial crash.

NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos 📉22% is the lowest we’ve recorded for Labour since June 2009 📉14% is the lowest VI share we’ve ever seen (since 1976) for the Conservatives

Introduction of #DigitalID generating some interesting arguments. Worth noting national ID has broad support, but after considering a range of pros and cons, the public is split on Digital ID specifically. From @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social

As ministers are getting to grips with their new briefs, 3 things @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling tells us about public expectations & mood: 1) Public priorities are the NHS and bread & butter issues (energy bills, econ stability, living standards). They've been the same for some time

📊 Immigration remains Briton's top concern, up 8pts since July (48%). Concern is strongest with Reform UK supporters (84%) in line with Farage’s ‘mass deportation’ plan announced this morning. Labour voters are less worried (33%). Full report 👉 bit.ly/3HDN2a9

With calls today to prevent children from using VPNs to access porn sites, new @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social data shows 7 in 10 Brits think under 18s will find it easy to get around #OnlineSafetyAct safeguards.

Votes at 16% is not hugely popular among the general public - was actually the least popular policy from Labour's manifesto that we tested @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social

#WelfareBill back in Commons later this week. The debate over last few months seems to have moved public opinion closer to Labour backbenchers. Full data from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social here www.ipsos.com/en-uk/six-te...

#NHS 10 year plan released today, so here are 3 points from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling on @nationalvoices.bsky.social i-statements: 1. joined up services: people with long-term conditions, who likely interact with more services, more often, report not being supported to manage their health

NEW Scottish Political Monitor from @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social also with our new methodology - gold standard probability sampling. Findings below. Many familiar themes from GB politics of the last year, but playing out a bit differently in the Scottish political system

We @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social published our first VI since the election with a fresh new methodology. Telephone has served us well, but we have now moved to our online probability KnowledgePanel. Some points for the methodologically-inclined among you:

🚨NEW @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social voting intention exclusive for the @telegraphnews.bsky.social / NEW methodology / Reform lead at 9 points 🚨 Reform UK 34% Labour 25% Conservatives 15% Lib Dems 11% Green 9% Record lead for Reform Record low share with Ipsos for the Conservatives

Among all the gloomy news, here's a slither of positivity: people are broadly happy with their local areas. New @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social research finds half of us are satisfied with the #QualityOfLife in our local area. But ... deprivation can have a huge negative impact on quality of life.

Wes Streeting says overdiagnosis is a problem. The public see a range of causes for increase in health benefits, incl benefits given out too easily, but behind other reasons like people cheating the system, more conditions seen as reasons for not working & people not getting timely treatment

A couple of points from our @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social #welfare poll today. 1) there is broad sympathy for making sure people who need health benefits get them 2) But nearly 1/2 think people who don't take action to try to return to work should lose benefits. bit.ly/425Hj48

While trying to work out what abolishing #NHSEngland actually means, I can very highly recommend this @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social piece using #MRP modelling to explore the many challenges ahead for #health services. At a crossroads indeed!!

Getting 2m more people into work is an ambitious goal. But @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social research highlights 2 big challenges. 1) Only 2/5 are satisfied with jobs locally, but notice where satisfaction is higher. Same places where you find jobs that require a degree, better paid.

‼️New Ipsos UK Understanding Society uses 8 MRPs and interactive maps to explore local views of public services and policy implications. We look at #policing #housing #jobs #NHS #education #transport #qualityoflife #communitycohesion. Explore below

Starmer has called for Europe to 'step up' to defend Ukraine. This will mean making some choices here at home as well. Last year, we found 2 in 5 Britons would pay more tax in order to increase the defence budget.

New Ofsted ratings causing some stir. We previously found that parents/carers think schools are better at academic performance and pupil wellbeing, not as good at staff wellbeing, attainment of pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds and reducing tensions between communities @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social

It's the economy, but which economy? MPs (mostly Labour) prioritise infrastructure and removing institutional barriers to deliver economic growth. But public see it as improved public services, more and better jobs (@ipsosintheuk.bsky.social )

Interesting change of narrative around AI from UK gov today. Starmer wants AI to work for working people, but the public think workers are amongst the bigger losers of AI, businesses and patients biggest winners. Lots more from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social here www.ipsos.com/en-uk/people...

Starmer unveils plan to slash NHS waiting lists, aiming for 92% of patients to wait <18 weeks by 2029. Ipsos data (Dec 2024) shows public concern over access, with 62% lacking confidence in timely GP appointments & 68% for A&E 👉 bit.ly/3DC8rxV (1)

New from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social KnowledgePanel: low satisfaction with health services highlights health inequalities across UK. Satisfaction is lower in more deprived areas, higher in more affluent areas.

I'm on the train back from the launch of the devolution white paper, and finally getting a chance to read the document properly! A few thoughts, based on past @instituteforgov.bsky.social research. 1/

Eagerly awaiting the English #devolution white paper, so here's some context Brits generally like their local politics better. But even so, not even 3 in 10 think councils deliver outcomes well!