Andy Burnham is most likely to be seen as having what it takes to be a good PM (28%). 🥇 Farage and Badenoch aren't far behind (both 24%) but Burnham's net rating of 0 is stronger than Farage's -33 and Badenoch's -18.

Half (51%) of the public see a vote for the Green Party as a wasted vote in a General Election. 🗳️

NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos 📊Reform UK +7 point lead over Labour (+2 since April) halting the steady decline in their vote share since September. 📊The Greens are -3 since last month, whilst Labour are up +1.

41% of Brits see immigration as the biggest issue facing Britain (+9 points since last month) followed by the Economy. 📉 Concern for defence and foreign affairs has fallen significantly (-10 points since April) 👉 https://bit.ly/42NoyCk

Millions went to the polls across Scotland, Wales and parts of England last week 🗳️ And some Brits think they could win over voters 👉 27% believed they could successfully be elected as an MP in their local area when asked in Nov '25.

Angela Rayner is not wrong in saying Labour 'are in danger of becoming a party of the well-off'. In April @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social had Labour leading among the Comfortably off and Financially stable segments, and 4th!! among those Just coping or Financially vulnerable.

Labour have only really been out of power in Hackney once, in 1968. When Tories controlled the council just long enough to save de Beauvoir estate - the subject of intense architectural administration and social inequality scorn of all Hackneyites. From the @hackney-society.bsky.social at 50

Noticed journalists talk of proportional electoral systems as being 'designed to prevent any party having a majority'. Not true. The opposite of 'designed to encourage majorities' is 'designed to proportionally translate votes into seat'.

In the meanest possible way - I LOVE being in a competitive seat #hackney . In a 'yes, work for it' kind of way. Is this what some of you go through every election? Astonishing. More canvassing than the previous decade x 6.

2 in 3 (66%) Brits do not have confidence that the UK Government is running the country with integrity (-3 from Feb ‘26) Ratings are comparable to perceptions of the Conservative government when Boris Johnson resigned 👉 https://bit.ly/4dong6B

Labour has a quality of life problem. Using data from just after the general election, but I think it illustrates the point well: Labour councils have lower satisfaction with the quality of life than England overall (net + 11 vs +26). Interactive map ipsos-insight-llc.foleon.com/understandin...

For the first time, I've released a local elections projection using The Elections Centre data. You can read the full analysis here and I'll add some snippets in this thread 👇 electionscentre.uk/2026-local-e...

And when it comes to Keir Starmer, two thirds of Britons think it is unlikely he'll win the next General Election – up 5 ppts from June 2025.

About 80% of Green voters are white. In 2024, they got 1.8 million votes (6.4%). Ipsos estimate 6% of white vote (approx 1.5m) and 11% of ethnic minorities (approx 300-350k). Ipsos estimate Reform 2024 16% of white vote (about 4m) abd 3% of ethnic minority voters (about 100k), about 97% white.

Interesting how similar Reform and Greens are - those considering voting for each are more driven by national policies than other groups, especially Reform

Top 5 factors for English adults in deciding who to vote for in the upcoming local elections 📊

📊New polling shows 62% disagree Welsh Labour deserve to be re-elected, while 59% doubt Reform UK is ready for government. Rhun ap Iorwerth is the only leader in Wales with a positive net satisfaction rating (+7) Yet the public remains split about his readiness to be First Minister (27% vs. 25%)

Plaid Cymru hold a small lead over Reform in our @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Senedd voting intention poll. Labour trailing 3rd. What's behind this? 1) Low satisfaction with the Welsh Government - 64% dissatisfied with Eluned Morgan's Welsh Labour Government.

NEW @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Welsh Senedd Voting Intention

🚨Final reminder🚨 This coming Sunday is the deadline to submit to #EPOP2026. Further details and the application form can be found on the conference website: www.liverpool.ac.uk/politics/eve...

Everything you need to know about the upcoming elections, from 3 polling experts - Sir John Curtice, Gideon Skinner, Emily Gray 👇 Beyond the Bubble: The 2026 Local and Devolved Elections Briefing 📅23 April 🕧12:30 📍Online Register here 👉 https://bit.ly/481mPfC

🚨NEW HISTORIC LOW 🚨 - net economic optimism in Britain has fallen to the lowest levels ever recorded since Ipsos began collecting this data in 1978.

6 in 10 expect Labour to lose councillors at these elections, and half of Londoners are considering voting for the Greens. Poll-in-1 with @keiranpedley ⛳

In a surprise government policy change, schools will be forced to ban smartphones. Over 56% of Britons support banning mobile phones in schools altogether (Jan 2026). And banning phones in schools receives cross-party support: 60% Reform UK voters 59% Labour voters, 62% Conservative voters

Stamer retains his March lead ahead of Farage and Badenoch, on who Brits think would be the most capable Prime Minister. He’s down -1 since March 2026. There’s been no change for Farage, whilst Badenoch is up +4.

NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos 📊Reform UK +6 point lead over Labour – down from +7 in March, +8 in Jan 2026 and +15 in Nov 2025 📊Lib Dems are up +5 since March 📊Labour and Conservatives are now both on 19% - a drop for Labour from March (-2) and an increase for the Conservatives (+2)

8 in 10 (86%) Brits are concerned about fuel/energy prices as a result of the US/Israel-Iran conflict. 57% are very concerned (+8ppts since March) 👇

🇬🇧 UK Poll of Polls: 12 April 2026 26% ➡️ Reform 19% 🌳 Conservative 18% 🌹 Labour 15% 🍃 Green 11% 🐥 Lib Dem 6% 👽 Other 3% ✖️ SNP

It's really not looking good for Orban

Today's @ipsosinscotland.bsky.social poll finds the largest SNP constituency vote lead of any BPC research agency since Nicola Sturgeon's resignation, as SNP support rises to its highest level in over two years. I'll be discussing this, and more, with @holyroodsources.bsky.social this afternoon.

The state of polls for this weekend's (tbc) election in Hungary is WILD. Pick your sponsor/winner. I've been away from E Europe for too long and had almost forgotten about government sponsored polls. But there are a few things from @ipsosgroup.bsky.social we know about Hungary:

Half of Brits (48%) support issuing more licenses for companies to drill new wells for oil and gas in the North Sea. Support is highest amongst Reform UK and Conservative voters 👉 https://bit.ly/4c3ucEm

9 in 10 (89%) are concerned about the impact of the cost of living over the next six months on the country as a whole👉 https://www.express.co.uk/latest/cost-of-living

Get monthly round-ups of our latest politics and public services insights delivered straight to your inbox 📧👉 https://bit.ly/ipsos-pulse-check

Did you know that the government is trialling 'flexible voting' in some parts of the country in May’s local elections? These will give people more options about where they can vote and test early in-person voting. Read more in Monitor 92 👉 www.ucl.ac.uk/social-histo....

Top issues for Brits (March 26) 1️⃣ Immigration 37% (-4 since Feb 26) 2️⃣ Economy 34% (+2 since Feb 26) 3️⃣ Defence/Foreign affairs/International terrorism 31% (+16 since Feb 26) 👉 bit.ly/4sz0vSR

Clarity on support for energy bills will be crucial. We're already seeing the impact of the war in Iran on economic anxiety in our @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social data. 84% concerned about the impact on the price of fuel/energy 83% concerned about the impact on the UK economy

The US and UK's diverging views on Iran is yet another strain on the 'special relationship'. But it's not purely No 10 vs White House. The British public are more likely to disapprove of strikes than Americans, though support is still weak in the US as well.

A few thoughts on the Greens and the upcoming locals. Up 5pts in the March @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Voting Intention, and with elections that were almost designed for them to do well, it should be a walk in the park. But they have some structural challenges to overcome:

Labour supporters most satisfied with the way Starmer is doing his job as PM (net +22). Reform UK supporters are least satisfied (net -89), followed by Conservative supporters (net -75).

Polling dates correction: 5-11 March 2026

How things go for the economically insecure over the next three years will decide the outcome of the next election.

Not to understate how unpopular this government and Starmer are, but this is the first time since September Starmer has had a (small) lead on Most Capable Prime Minister over Farage.

How are voters moving between parties since July 2024? (Ipsos)

It's Reform vs Greens among the most financially vulnerable groups in our new @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Voting Intention, with Labour 4th among this group! Indeed, Labour only lead among the Comfortably off. That Reform and Greens are able to speak to this group speaks volumes.

New @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social Voting Intention out today: ➡️Reform lead +7 (down 1pt since Jan). But we've had them on a continuous decline since last year. 🌱 Greens 17% up 5pt after Gordon and Denton. Great signs for them ahead of local election campaign tinyurl.com/yf3n7rua

NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos 📊Reform UK +7-point lead over Labour – down from +8 in Jan 2026 and +15 in Nov 2025 📊The Greens’ vote share of 17% is up from 12% in Jan 2026 📊Both Labour and Conservatives down from Jan 2026 – Labour -1, Conservatives -2

The government were losing the argument over Digital ID, so a change in tone was very much needed. The main objection was the there is no need for one and as @instituteforgovernment.org.uk point out, we don't really know how they will fit into the array of systems already in place.