It's obviously true unless something unexpected happens, but a) the incumbent government needs to actually have *delivered for its coalition* to lead a republican front b) the leader needs to be a plausible leader of it and c) they do need to actually be able to say 'Vichy was bad'.

I wrote my first investigative piece raising concerns about Covid contracts in *April 2020*. Great to see this finally on screen

It’s worth asking the question why British politics is trying so hard to copy American politics when the same policies aren’t even popular there, let alone here.

The maddest part of this is that the political chatter in the UK about next general election has been off the hook since c. September 2024

Some rather bracing discussion in today’s @willhaycardiff.bsky.social substack (featuring analysis from @jaclarner.bsky.social) of *that* @walesgovernance.bsky.social/ ITV Wales @yougov.co.uk poll & where things stand ahead of next year’s Senedd election #devolution #senedd

The annual festival of “stop hitting yourself!“ aka the BBC’s commentary on Lib Dem conference.

In a world awash with data, does the Trump White House really believe it can black out the web, and avoid transparency? And if not, why are they even trying? www.liberalcurrents.com/trumps-war-o...

Always feel slightly weird doing the 🚨personal news🚨 thing, but anyway, I am somewhat excited to be starting a masters in International Security and Global Governance at Birkbeck this coming week.

Trump’s War on Transparency www.liberalcurrents.com/trumps-war-o...

My piece on Trump's War on transparency for @liberalcurrents.com www.liberalcurrents.com/trumps-war-o...

And again, why are these agents kitted out like they are going into Mogadishu?

To add to the interest of the Welsh election, there is an expanded Senedd and new electoral system in 2026! Of wider relevance, polling from Wales suggests what can happen when Labour has a viable alternative on their left flank, given that people are more volatile now.

It's up! Deadline 22 Oct yourviews.parliament.scot/sppa/freedom...

Had a very interesting day in Bloomsbury at the 'What is a Parliament?' workshop organised by @stephenholdenbates.bsky.social @benworthy.bsky.social and @pseaward.bsky.social Thanks to them and to all the speakers who gave such thought-provoking papers!

"Presidents have swung between rather tepid enthusiasm and intense dislike of the FOIA. But trying to get rid, outright, of such a law is tricky, and likely to provoke a backlash.  A better way is to quietly starve those who carry out the law of resources and personnel."

In 2001 Silvio Berlusconi mentioned three TV presenters by name and criticised them all. All three were removed from state television channels, including the legendary broadcaster Enzo Biagi.

Latest piece for the @thehousemag.bsky.social, beginning with this: "One electoral change has been unrelenting: the growing – in fact accelerating – refusal of the electorate to cast a ballot for either of the two governing parties". When was that sentence first published? 1977...

A new Explainer out from @aoifemod.bsky.social and me detailing the UK's ECHR commitments under the 1998 Agreement in response to recent speculation. It is short, because there is very little to say - the UK's obligations are evident on the B/GFA's plain text: caj.org.uk/wp-content/u...

🔴 More than 30 ex Tory defence ministers and senior civil servants have taken lucrative jobs in the booming defence industry in past year New @lucasamin.bsky.social investigation on Democracy for Sale raises serious questions about 'revolving door' democracyforsale.substack.com/p/palantir-a...

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

Wealthy donors are increasingly fudning political campaigns, eroding the public’s trust in the political process. The Government has the opportunity to reverse that trend, argues Rose Whiffen of @anticorruption.bsky.social. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

Your occasional reminder that Ursula K. Le Guin and Philip K. Dick were in the same year in the same high school, liked each other’s writing, but never met in person.

BES Research Fellow @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social has spoken with The Economist about our Parliamentary Affairs paper on how British voters are volatile, but their choices are now structured by party blocs after the Brexit realignment. Read here: www.economist.com/britain/2025...

The Economist's piece also references work by @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social on tactical voting in 2024, and a paper that includes BES team member @jack-bailey.co.uk on Keir Starmer's "Island of Strangers" speech.

You can read our paper here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a... You can read Marta and Jane's paper here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... You can read the working paper on the Islands of Strangers speech here: osf.io/preprints/so...

These are two great papers, explaining Brexit and the GE 2024...and beyond.

My great-grandfather, who died aged 103, told me how his own grandfather saw Napoleon riding past on his return from Elba. 1815, just one degree of separation.

Alec Douglas-Home lived long enough to hear Shaggy's 'Boombastic'.

Alexander Kerensky could have tapped a toe to "Back In The USSR".

"Money buys influence in British democracy" My evidence from Parliament yesterday on threats from foreign influence in British politics. Full video on the Democracy for Sale YouTube channel (Do subscribe!!) www.youtube.com/@Democracy_f...

I am proud to be part of this project - led by the brilliant @turnbulldugarte.com - which has an important take-away for mainstream left parties We show that when Labour adopts exclusionary rhetoric on immigration, it can backfire: core supporters feel alienated and Reform UK gains legitimacy

Happy to share our new research on UK climate politics 🚨 We found Members of Parliament (MPs) use the language of climate "pragmatism" to avoid rapid change. It risks becoming a new discourse of delay. More detail below and in 🧵 1/ theconversation.com/politicians-...

@sandylaping.bsky.social & I must have added another 20 actions to the www.trumpactiontracker.info? today. I get the impression that the administration is drunk on their success in getting away with all their bullshit & is going for everything they ever dreamed of. I can only hope they overreach.

Radical right accommodation really does not work. New paper out with this exceptionally talented team @katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk doi.org/10.31235/osf...

We have a paper on how Labour's strategy is disastrous. There's an exclusive coverage in @newstatesman.com www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...

First time in Holyrood! Awesome to see our Open Access Tool now rolled out in Scotland thanks to the always awesome @rosewhiff.bsky.social & @muteswann.bsky.social And of course, check it out yourself 👇 openaccess.transparency.org.uk

At Institute for Government in London for an event on the Freedom of Information Act at 25. My Democracy for Sale colleague @jennacorderoy.bsky.social rightly stressing that FOI responses are at an all time low. So much prevarication from government departments in particular

This really was a great event - do watch it back if you couldn't make it!

3 things to consider from @benworthy.bsky.social 📍local - 3x more requests go to local rather than central government 🤩 innovation - the ecosystem of open government is bigger and more exciting now 😁 enthusiasm - FOI should make politicians nervous, but we do need positive signals

A massive thank you to @jennacorderoy.bsky.social @benworthy.bsky.social @itscrowbot.bsky.social @lynnwyeth.bsky.social, John Edwards & Charlie Falconer (& a great audience) for a terrific and constructive discussion on FOI @instituteforgovernment.org.uk today Watch back bit.ly/IfGFoI2025

🚨 New WP! 📄 "Publish or Procreate: The Effect of Motherhood on Research Performance" (w/ @valentinatartari.bsky.social 👩‍🔬👨‍🔬 We investigate how parenthood affects scientific productivity and impact — and find that the impact is far from equal for mothers and fathers.

Say hi if you're also going to the @instituteforgovernment.org.uk 25 years of FOI event with a real FOI avengers assemble cast incl @itscrowbot.bsky.social @gavinfreeguard.bsky.social @jennacorderoy.bsky.social @benworthy.bsky.social ✨

Still time to join us: www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/foi-ac...

Interesting. Some guy called Talbot makes some useful points (at the end) 👇🏽 www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-...

I fear this is about right. There seem to be too many ways that the 2026 elections can be fixed, because Trump has too much power. If those elections can be fixed, ensuring subsequent ones are becomes easy. I suspect we are past the tipping point for US democracy.

Political scientists of Bluesky! I have an enticing puzzle for you. Legislators often form voluntary membership groups based on shared interests (e.g. 🇺🇸 congressional caucuses, 🇬🇧 APPGs, 🇪🇺 Intergroups). These groups can be about ANYTHING. But there's one subject that seems to dominate. What is it?

It was great to talk about all things PMQs with @ruthfox.bsky.social and @darcyxtip.bsky.social on @hansardsociety.bsky.social Parliament Matters! We discuss why France and Canada have experimented with PMQs, and why it may be time to retire the ‘engagements’ question. youtu.be/OtpApR3fNQE?...

Robert E. Lee killed more U.S. troops in battle than Adolph Hitler and Osama bin Laden combined

My latest Bellingcat tool is out! It lets you search what was said in council meetings across the UK and Ireland, and takes you directly to the right part of the video session to verify. Check it out and let me know what you think! 👇 council-search.bellingcat.com