New blog post on Gelman's recent claim that Type S and M errors are intended as a 'rhetorical tool', and if I was wrong to believe they were recommended more routinely in our recent preprint criticizing the idea of Type S and M errors. daniellakens.blogspot.com/2025/09/type...

🚨 New paper alert 🚨 Using LLMs as data annotators, you can produce any scientific result you want. We call this **LLM Hacking**. Paper: arxiv.org/pdf/2509.08825

More examples of faked institutional email addresses from @deevybee.bsky.social here deevybee.blogspot.com/2022/10/what...

"OpenAI is making “small steps that are good, but I don’t think we’re anywhere near where we need to be”, says Mark Steyvers, a cognitive science and AI researcher at UC Irvine. “It’s not frequent enough that GPT says ‘I don’t know’.”" www.nature.com/articles/d41...

➡️ Deadline approaching—only one month left to send in your papers and presentation proposals for #CDSM2025! 🚨 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀: 𝗖𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗦𝗰𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗠𝗲𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 🚨 📅 𝗡𝗼𝘃 𝟭𝟮–𝟭𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱 (𝗩𝗶𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹) 📥 Submission Deadline: 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁 𝟯𝟬, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱

Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life? Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social) Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf... Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...

"Being Bayesian in a Frequentist World" New post on "Bayesian dynamic borrowing" in R 📚 Link 👇

If you are preparing your bachelor statistics course and would like to add optional material for students to better understand statistics on a conceptual level (see topics in the screenshot) my free textbook provides a state of the art overview. lakens.github.io/statistical_...

My video about how LLMs are not search engines has led to many, MANY comments telling me that I should be using Perplexity. Some insisting that Perplexity does not hallucinate. Out of a list of 26 papers it just provided me (in "Research" mode) 4 were real. FOUR. 85% hallucination rate.

TIL the original paper describing CRISPR, by Francisco Mojica, was rejected by 4 journals and took 2 years to be published

Just in case there was any doubt, ChatGPT 5.0 still makes up completely random citations that don't exist and should not be used for literature search.

‼️Cool new paper‼️ Finds that journal data policies in psychology boost sharing statements to ~100%, but only about half of datasets are complete, understandable, reusable. Open: open.lnu.se/index.php/me...

5. Most frequentist methods are just *fine* and there's no need to always go full luxury bayesian in every application.

When power is derived from lies, data become the enemy. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/b...

Inspiring PDW on using sensitivity analysis in empirical management research. My contribution is to present the sensemakr package by Cinelli & Hazlett (2020) for observational designs. Thanks a lot to the organizers for putting this fantastic session together. #AOM2025

In my latest (and last!) column for Science’s Expert Voices series, I write about the reasons behind AI chatbots’ “deceptive” behaviors (and why Claude threatened a fictional CEO with blackmail). www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

This is fascinating: www.reddit.com/r/OpenAI/s/I... Someone “worked on a book with ChatGPT” for weeks and then sought help on Reddit when they couldn’t download the file. Redditors helped them realized ChatGPT had just been roleplaying/lying and there was no file/book…

The people call and I answer. Here are my thoughts on that developer RCT and the "AI slows down developers" claim. www.fightforthehuman.com/are-develope...

Using time series graphs to make causal claims be like

Thick vs thin causality

After all these reports of authors adding language instructions for LLM reviews in their papers I wanted to check this myself and I downloaded the .tex source from one of these papers. Here is an example. (I will not share the identity of the paper)

Very excited to publicly share news about a new tool, Papercheck, that @debruine.bsky.social and me started to develop more than a year ago! In an introductory blog post, we explain our philosophy to automatically check scientific papers for best practices. daniellakens.blogspot.com/2025/06/intr...

Venn (1866) described the problem with the "sharpshooter fallacy": 🎯 painting the bullseye on the spot where a bullet hits a door. In psychology, we call this "HARKing" — Hypothesizing After Results Are Known.

Possibly the best thing I've read about ChatGPT yet. h/t @melaniemitchell.bsky.social amandaguinzburg.substack.com/p/diabolus-e...

The journal of sport sciences recently made a sample size justification section mandatory. More and more journals are implementing this, as it is a central part of a study! Learn how to create a state of the art sample size justification from my paper: online.ucpress.edu/collabra/art...

We are 3 seconds from a dim, influential person arguing that it's ok for "AI" to hallucinate scientific references because it means those papers *should* exist.

This is what happens when you put internet conspiracy theorists in charge of major government departments.

If you work in psychology in a research area without Registered Reports, you will see that the main hypotheses in papers are almost always supported. If your peers publish Registered Reports, you will also have access to null results, which should be very common. doi.org/10.1177/2515...

Writing some paragraphs about odds ratio and, more generally, different scales in nonlinear models. Any favorite articles on odds ratio?>

You could literally use this story for a course on current issues in scholarly publishing: preprints, peer review, AI, fraud, early-career incentives, internal investigations. It's got the lot.

Papers might as well declare "Data available upon victory in a duel."

Thanks to everybody who chimed in! I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist. So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>

Not-so-modest shoutout to our own paper on interactions in which we discuss both issues — scale dependence and confounding 😋 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

you know how they say 'if the product is free you are the product'? This used to make sense, but with rogue companies like google we now pay for their product AND we are the product. PSA: you can get rid of gmail and dropbox with proton mail, fully encrypted proton.me/family

New paper: Blaming the Thermometer for the Fever: Separating Misapplication from Method in Null Hypothesis Significance Testing, with @laabho.bsky.social and @jnwulff.bsky.social. We – strongly – push back on criticisms against NHST and argue for proper application. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... >

FACT CHECK: This viral graph from twitter claims to *prove* vaccines cause autism. But there's something fishy about the data! Let's dive in.

New pre-print out. We tackle the most common criticisms of NHST and show how to adress them. With NHST 🤯

Richard Dawkins most famous reply to: "What if you're wrong?"

Cool concept. Short reports checking robustness of empirical findings to an alternative way of analysing the data. One paper does a multiverse analysis varying priors and participant inclusion criteria.

We are live! Introducing the "Journal of Robustness Reports" – a Diamond Open-Access journal dedicated to publishing short reanalyses of empirical findings. Check out our website and blog post about the journal: 🌐 scipost.org/JRobustRep 📄 www.bayesianspectacles.org/introducing-...

Looking for a colleague! #EconSky Interested in becoming a Professor of Business Psychology (with a focus on Quantitative Methods) in Germany? No German skills required! Please share with your network —more details from me below. stellen.reutlingen-university.de/jobposting/3...

This work is the result of Lau's visit to my lab while he was completing his PhD. We currently have 3 lab visitors, which is a lot of fun, and we are always open to hosting young scientists passionate about good science!

Paper with Lau Holgersen and @lakens.bsky.social and PDW with Sirio Lonati accepted for AOM. Copenhagen, here we come! #AOM2025 @aomconnect.bsky.social

In related news, maybe you should stop directly messing around with coefficients in the first place! Just talked to a student who was told by their advisor that they should use a continuous scale for a categorical thing because otherwise “the analyses get too complicated.”>

New blog post! In which I explain the issue with mediation analysis and sketch out one way to deal with the underlying causal inference problem -- in just a bit over 1,000 words! If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance. www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...

I’ve long used FiveThirtyEight’s interactive “Hack Your Way To Scientific Glory” to illustrate the idea of p-hacking when I teach statistics. But ABC/Disney killed the site earlier this month :( So I made my own with #rstats and Observable and #QuartoPub ! stats.andrewheiss.com/hack-your-way/

🚨 New Publication Alert! 🚨 Can AI revolutionize agricultural subsidy processing in the EU? Our latest paper shows deep learning might just be the game-changer! 🌾🤖 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Statistics and data analysis in academia are exactly like Elden Ring. You either have *Let me solo her* available to help you fight the bosses, or you have to git good. That's it. There is no third option. statsepi.substack.com/p/im-not-a-r...