New paper out in @egu.eu's Climate of the Past together with economists (@mbennedsen.bsky.social @erichillebrand.bsky.social) to apply their rate prediction tools to the Cenozoic stack for detecting the timing and duration of breakpoints. Really fun. @au.dk cp.copernicus.org/articles/21/...

New paper out: journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal... with Mikkel Bennedsen @mbennedsen.bsky.social and Siem Jan Koopman

We celebrated Carter Hill's birthday yesterday with the presentation of an edited volume in his honor: "Teaching Econometrics - A Tribute to R. Carter Hill". link.springer.com/book/9783031... It is scheduled to be released in December 2025 by Springer.

Forskerforum has written a piece about my unfortunate experience with the Danish Office for Naturalization (in Danish) dm.dk/forskerforum...

Special Issue – The Econometrics Journal Econometric Modeling of Climate Change and the Green Transition Submission deadline: Feb 28, 2026 Call for papers: sites.google.com/view/emcccon...

Econometric Models of Climate Change, 9th annual conference at the University of Victoria, Canada, Aug 27-28, 2025 Call for papers: tinyurl.com/emcc2025uvic

New work on arXiv: arxiv.org/abs/2412.09226 The Global Carbon Budget data is a textbook example of cointegration.

e360.yale.edu/features/gav... www.newscientist.com/article/2458...

Earlier this year, I received news that fake peer reviews were allegedly being submitted impersonating me and approximately six others I shared my story with Science to, hopefully, reduce the chance of this kind of breach happening again www.science.org/content/arti...

The global carbon budget 2024 is out

New work in Nature Communications about the CO2 airborne fraction, the part of emissions that remains in the atmosphere www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The new Center for Research in Energy: Economics and Markets - CoRE is a public-private research center jointly initiated by Aarhus BSS - @aarhusuni.bsky.social and InCommodities. We had this video made professionally to summarize what we're about. Check it out. www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCFI...

8th annual conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC-VIII): Deadline for extended abstracts/papers: May 15 University of Cambridge, King's College, Aug 16 & 17 tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb

Fingers crossed for AU’s team at the #EconometricGame 2024, with a case on Estimating Causal Effects of Educational Policies!

New work on time series analysis of paleoclimate proxies. Incredibly cool time series, about 23,000 irregularly spaced observations covering 67 million years

Econometric Models of Climate Change (EMCC) - 8th annual conference takes place Aug 16 and 17 at King's College, University of Cambridge. Call for papers and extended abstracts and link for submissions at tinyurl.com/4wzak7nb Deadline May 15. Mark your calendars, and see you in Cambridge in August

Global Carbon Budget 2023 Despite record growth in clean energy, global fossil CO2 emissions are expected to grow 1.1% [0-2.1%] in 2023. Strong policies are needed to ensure fossil fuels decline as clean energy grows! essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/... 1/

"Prediction based upon a hypothesis, or model, is the ideal, but it should be noted that prediction can be based upon *recognition* of a regularity as well as upon *explanation* of a regularity." Peter Whittle, 1963

Is the Earth's Energy Imbalance of the scales? Does it mean 1.5°C is inevitable, or is it our actions that make 1.5°C inevitable? I scribbled down some thoughts: glenpeters.substack.com/p/understand...

A question for the hive mind that is driving me crazy: I vaguely remember a quote (was it by Kahane?) that mathematical models are devices to organize thinking and help asking the right, sharp questions (as opposed to accurate descriptions of reality). Anybody knows the quote?

I fear this might not be the most exciting account... so watch this. I still laughed even when we did the 30th take. youtu.be/CnITUQVEqLQ?...

Ten years ago, I published my first paper on statistical approaches in climate research, coming from economics and mathematics. It's been quite a journey since then, and I'm glad I made the decision to put my main focus on this

New working paper on arXiv: The airborne fraction of CO2 is commonly estimated in a way that makes an econometrician scratch their head and think “But why not the other way?” So we dug into it.   arxiv.org/abs/2311.01053

Aarhus University is hiring a post-doc in the econometrics of energy, climate, and environmental economics. Deadline is Nov 24. Details found here: econjobmarket.org/positions/9995

Advances in Econometrics is preparing a volume on Climate, Energy, and Green Transition. Call for papers is below, deadline is Nov 30. Spread the word tinyurl.com/py9n677y

We reanalyzed the Environmental Kuznets Curve (higher GDP/capita yields lower CO2 emissions) with neural nets. For OECD countries, the EKC disappears when using consumption-based emissions, suggesting pollution havens. For Asia, there is a real EKC. doi.org/10.1016/j.en...

I wrote a thing about the ongoing 'debate' over how best to interpret/frame this year's extreme heat. www.cips-cepi.ca/2023/10/11/i...

There is a 90% chance that 2023 will be more than 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. [Oh, but it is only one year & not the trend. Well, the trend looks pretty ominous too!] Great analysis by @rarohde.bsky.social, do read: berkeleyearth.org/september-20...

September 2023 Temperature Update 🔥 Warmest September & largest anomaly ever measured, shattering previous September record. Warming since August concentrated in polar regions. Near certain that 2023 becomes the warmest year. Likely 2023 exceeds 1.5 °C. berkeleyearth.org/september-20...

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) averaged about 419 ppm in September 2023 10 years ago September averaged about 394 ppm Preliminary data: gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ 🧪⚒️

To limit global warming to '1.5°C with no or limited overshoot', the decline in global CO2 emissions relative to 2019 are: * 48% by 2030 * 80% by 2040 * 99% by 2050 It is 2023 & global CO2 emissions are still rising! ipcc.ch/report/sixth...

Economists are not involved enough with the IPCC www.nature.com/articles/s44...

Website for "A multivariate dynamic statistical model of the Global Carbon Budget 1959-2020", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A sites.google.com/site/erichil...

New paper: A statistical energy balance model that uses both observational data and climate model output to estimate the impact of man-made forcing on global temperatures. Scenario analyses are shown to be comparable with output from large-scale climate models. doi.org/10.1175/JCLI...