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Like a subtle rainbow

Have managed to catch auroras at least once each month so far this year, from my home at 45.6°N. Here’s hoping October, November and December deliver!

It’s amazing how much Carbon is stored *underneath* forests

Rural Quebec right now 🔥

This article from - checks notes - *20 YEARS AGO* (❗️) turned out to be pretty darned prescient…

I asked Grok if Trump has ever acknowledged climate change as a real problem and it completely fabricated the following quote: (Don’t trust LLMs)

Dude can afford the best speech writers money can buy, has unparallelled access to the world‘s top scientists, supposedly received an Ivy League education, and yet *this* … this codswallop… is what he decides to say while addressing the UN. Make it make sense! 😵‍💫

“It used to be global cooling. If you look back years ago in the 1920s and 1930s they said, ‘Global cooling will kill the world,’” Trump said. “Then they said ‘global warming will kill the world.’ But then it started getting cooler … It’s the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.” 🤷🏻‍♂️

How do we get the Trump Admin to interpret this as the US LOSING to China? And: Is the former the only way to get the Trump Admin to act on climate?

This is mind-blowing. Norway has gone from essentially ZERO sales of non-emitting Battery Electric Vehicles to *94%* of new passenger vehicles sales. In about 13 years! Incredible. How are they doing it @robbieandrew.bsky.social?

Also, as a little thought exercise, I made a mashup: Imagine claiming (based on an extrapolation of the observed Arctic Sea Volume from 1980-1992) that Arctic Sea Ice was stabilizing and wouldn't decline further. That's basically what some folks are claiming today based on the last decade of values.

If you care about... you know, FACTS and LOGIC and REASON... then next time you see the "But Al Gore said the Arctic would be Ice Free!" meme, take a moment to READ THIS post by @climateofgavin.bsky.social for the details: www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...

The UN Secretary General is co-convening the 2025 Climate Summit this coming week, at the UN Headquarters in New York City. Here is the full list of all 109 participating countries. The US is not among them. FYI, this does not convey American 'Greatness'.

"The water cycle has become increasingly erratic and extreme, swinging between deluge and drought" (this quote is from the WMO's Press Release about their own report; though the actual report itself doesn't mention the word 'erratic'). Crazy to see how dry Canada was on an annual basis in 2024.

Morning view never gets old

“Canada’s fossil fuel industry has singlehandedly scotched any chance of the country hitting its legally-binding 2030 emissions reduction targets, due to increasing oil production.” (Sorry world)

The chart helps visualize the table. Note this is assuming the calculated decadal rate of warming continues at present rate, which it may not do...

Two interesting stats on wildfire burn area in 2025 YTD: In Canada, it's the second worst year on record going back to 1983. But we've only just recently surpassed the half way point for 2023 burn area! Globally, 2025 thus far has the *lowest* burn area in the last 14 years.

The sky was on fire tonight

North Americans! If you have clear dark night skies right now: Go outside and take a high exposure shot of the Northern horizon!

North Americans! If you have clear dark night skies right now: Go outside and take a high exposure shot of the Northern horizon!

There’s been a small increase (in some regions of the world) in the share of wildfire burn area that is occurring at the “wildland-urban interface”. Seems most pronounced in Africa and Europe - I would suspect for different reasons. No evident trend in other regions.

Here’s one for the “blame China” crowd…

Per HeatMap, ICE officials led their biggest workplace raid yet, arresting 475 employees at an electric vehicle battery plant in Georgia, and flying them back home (mostly South Korea). This is terrible and dumb in so many ways.

“Governments should plan for the medium and longer term by viewing spending on climate finance for the poorest countries, and on development and cooperation with the developing world, in that light, perhaps even classing it under, or allied to, defence budgets.”

Percent change in GHG emissions (CO2eq) per year since 1990, G7/EU. 🫣🇨🇦

The night is young yet…

Super interesting to see the spatial dynamics involved in this year’s wildfires. Much of Ontario, Quebec, Nunavut, and Labrador’s boreal unscathed.

New paper on climate & food security in sub-Saharan Africa generally expects yield *increases* (with some exceptions and a whole lot of spatial variation). The panel below shows total mean yields and relative yield changes compared to baseline 1981–2015, for a) SSP2‑4.5; b) SSP3‑7.0; and c) SSP5‑8.5

"China dominates the global trade of battery components, with 88% of the world’s cathode and 96% of anode production capacity in 2024, according to BNEF."

The Ocean: “Pff… You humans, you think you can conquer all! You inhabit all the continents; send rockets into space; put a flag on the moon; climb the tallest mountains; and sail the widest seas… but you’ll never leave your mark at my deepest depths!” Humans: “Hold my beer”

👀 New from @rahmstorf.bsky.social team: “The IPCC report found that the crucial Atlantic Ocean circulation #AMOC will weaken. Now some of the models have been continued beyond year 2100 and reveal a high risk of full shutdown.”

Some kind of metaphor for racism as an ideology burning your country to the ground (ICE agents arrest migrant firefighters)

Don’t forget the Fascism checklist!

👀Found a strange holographic professor pod at my uni…

Adding to list of class assignments that are very hard to do with AI

New study evaluates the precision of the IPPC’s sea level rise estimates from 30yrs ago: “Here we show that the mid-range projection from the Second Assessment Report… was strikingly close to what transpired over the next 30 years, with the magnitude of sea-level rise underestimated by only ∼1 cm.”

📣 Environmental Politics Article of the Year Award 2024! The award for Volume 33 goes to @ryankatzrosene.bsky.social and @apasek.bsky.social for their article ‘Spiral-scaling climate action: lessons from and for the academic flying less movement‘. environmentalpoliticsjournal.net/editorial-an...

Fall semester’s right around the corner... Here’s to another year of learning from brilliant students!

Climate scientists: It would be prudent to transition our energy systems from carbon-emitting fossil fuels to cleaner non-GHG emitting energy sources as quickly as possible. AP Ragebait: Have you considered replacing your dog with 100 rabbits?

Part 2 of my deep dive examining how and why many parts of North America used to have greater wildfire burn rates... and how climate factors in: thetradeoff.substack.com/p/part-2-man...

Part 2 of my deep dive examining how and why many parts of North America used to have greater wildfire burn rates... and how climate factors in: thetradeoff.substack.com/p/part-2-man...

Proud to be a part of this group effort coordinated by @andrewdessler.com Link: www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Some climate skeptics making a big deal about Arctic Sea Ice EXTENT no longer declining since 2005. What about Arctic Sea Ice VOLUME? One could say it's also plateaued since around 2010. But honestly, you could have said the same from early 1980s to early 1990s and you'd look a complete fool today:

Another piece I’ve been working on for a while… many parts of North America used to burn as much (or even more) than present, but climate change is also making wildfires worse… so how do we explain this? I spoke to experts and dive into the details:

Come read our ~award winning~ analysis of the academic flying less movement!

Another piece I’ve been working on for a while… many parts of North America used to burn as much (or even more) than present, but climate change is also making wildfires worse… so how do we explain this? I spoke to experts and dive into the details:

👀 That’s a right angle

Bit of colour on the horizon tonight…