Somber reminder that according to the IPCC, at 1.5C of global warming, a 50-year extreme heat event is 8.6X more likely to occur than in the pre-Industrial climate; and it is on average +2.0C hotter. By the time we reach 2C of warming, it's 13.9X more likely & 2.7C hotter (avg).

Stormy day here

👀 25X increase in battery storage capacity in Canada since 2016 👏👏

Rainbow laser

More residual aurora tonight… the wind has caused the trees to blur in this 30 second exposure

Camera sees colour… my eyes see a soft glow in the horizon…

Is the world decarbonizing? It depends. If you define "decarbonization" as: a) Global CO2 emissions declining: Not yet, but hopefully plateauing and then declining soon. b) Global CO2 emissions growth rate declining: Yes! c) Global CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP declining: Yes! Definitely.

Is the world decarbonizing? It depends. If you define "decarbonization" as: a) Global CO2 emissions declining: Not yet, but hopefully plateauing and then declining soon. b) Global CO2 emissions growth rate declining: Yes! c) Global CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP declining: Yes! Definitely.

Really interesting new charts measuring (lack of) progress on material footprint decoupling. The authors argue that green growth isn’t working (at least not globally, and not fast enough). Link in next tweet.

Forecast for the coming Super Niño Winter in Canada: WARM for everyone!

Interesting analysis by Bloomberg this morning noting that the current energy crisis is ushering in transition efforts in many countries. This chart shows a similar shift in the 1970s (albeit from one fossil fuel to another).

In order for a project to qualify as genuine 'Carbon Dioxide Removal', it has to fulfill 3 principles. Intriguingly, Fossil Carbon Capture and Storage projects don't qualify according to these rules. [From the 3rd State of CDR Report👇].

Absolutely massive changes to Canada’s population growth trajectory in just the last year. For the first time in the country’s history, the population *declined*!

What a difference 1.5 months makes! The ONI forecast (model mean) has increased by over 1C over this time. It was already considered a potential monster back in mid-April.

“World No. 16 Casper Ruud said the conditions had him “walking around like a zombie” after his first-round win on May 25.” www.cnn.com/2026/05/28/s...

City of Calgary has rescinded its former Climate emergency declaration from 2021. Mayor says “This is pragmatic. I’m fully supportive to continue our investment and action on climate, but I don’t think it’s more performance that’s required at this point. I think it’s action.”

Me: All I want to do is speak with experts to get details on statements they've already made publicly, do I really need Ethics Clearance? My University: Absolutely you do! Also please make sure to answer these relevant questions...

👀 ENSO Niño3.4 History and Current Forecast from Climatebrink Dashboard

Always fun to read about carbon offset projects that don't exist 🙃 [From Bloomberg]

Canada hasn’t had such a cold start to the year (in relative terms) since the mid-1990s

Found some morels yesterday. What’s should I make with them? 😋

Global sales of combustion engine vehicles peaked *a decade ago*. It’s going to be increasingly green from here on…

🤓 'Earthshine' refers to the light reflected off the Earth's surface, strong enough to illuminate the dark surface of the moon. Da Vinci wrote about this centuries ago. Apparently though, measurements of Earthshine have helped to corroborate satellite estimates of Earth's declining albedo from CERES

“The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday voted 141–8 to adopt a resolution backing a world court opinion that countries have a legal obligation to address ‌climate change, with the world's biggest historical emitter the United States among those opposing it.”

"Drill, baby, drill!"

152 years(ish) of average annual temperatures in Ottawa, Canada. About 2°C of warming on average.

43% of sea level rise is from warming of the ocean itself (thermal expansion)

Within, Gavin points out that the new High scenario "gets to 8.5 W/m2 only about 20 years after RCP85"

Shocking stats: Climate change is ALREADY costing the UK £60bn every year, or 2% of GDP Without climate adaptation, this could rise to £260bn (5% of GDP) by 2050, says CCC's Baroness Brown The committee says UK should invest £11bn a year to become more resilient

Very nice overlay by Gavin Schmidt of the different iterations of climate models over the decades (as well as a useful history of why models evolve: see www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...

Finally got around to updating this chart to include most recent winter. It was a relatively long skate season for the Rideau Canal. But the trend remains: Ottawa winters on average getting a bit warmer, and skating season on average getting a bit shorter.

Here's a mash-up of the RCP chart from Meinshausen et al. 2011, with the new CMIP7 High emissions scenario superimposed in orange: It crosses 7.5 W/m2 in 2100, then reaches 10 W/m2 in 2200, before settling around 9 W/m2. I shall call it "RCP7.5" henceforth!

It’s been too long old friend! Nice to see you again…

"For droughts in global key breadbasket regions, precipitation extremes over highly populated areas and fire weather extremes across forests, global climatic impact-drivers at 2 °C of global warming may turn out to be much more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming."

"Our results reveal ... First, conflict risk heightens during El Niño, but ENSO-associated risk does not scale linearly with teleconnection strength; Second, El Niño-related increases in conflict risk arise through its dry teleconnections, with limited evidence for wet teleconnections."

#MixedMessages Universities to students: If you use AI to write your assignments we will fail you. Also universities to students: You need to learn how to use AI to be competitive in today’s job market. AI companies to students: You will not have jobs in the future. 🫥🫥🫥

She says “Only a few years ago, AI was not a factor in our lives,” and the crowd cheers wildly 😂 The kids are alright, people… the kids are alright. www.nbcnews.com/video/shorts...

The world appears to be very keen to import Chinese solar panels right now (especially the US)

Very Canadian security alert at work today... (This is no joke - my colleague was attacked yesterday while going for a run!)

The world appears to be very keen to import Chinese solar panels right now (especially the US)

Very cool version of this monthly global average surface temperature anomaly chart showing both El Niño and La Niña years

Woah. Just came across this article written by a doctoral student... in 2008 👀

One of the wildest climate charts I know of: Canada's 'managed' boreal forest areas used to sequester over 100 Mt CO2 each year (net) from stand regeneration following wildfires, but in the last couple years these have tipped into 'positive' net emissions from decaying soil organic matter.

Between "I told you so" and "Not so fast! Climate thinkers respond to new models open.substack.com/pub/thetrade...

Between "I told you so" and "Not so fast! Climate thinkers respond to new models open.substack.com/pub/thetrade...

Some new preliminary CMIP7 scenarios have been proposed. We already knew this but… Major reductions in global GHG emissions are required SOON to avoid surpassing 2C of (average) global warming. The paper also proposes that RCP8.5 emissions levels are implausible gmd.copernicus.org/articles/19/...

Global growth (or should we call it 'stability'?) in NUCLEAR generation is being driven almost exclusively by China. They just put another reactor online this week, and they have several dozen under construction. On top of that: 41 planned, and an additional 144 reactors proposed!

It’s shaping up to be a very strong - possibly even the strongest- El Niño on record. Here’s what global temperatures were for strong Niños (yellow) and very strong Niños (orange) since 1950: (Strong in 57-59; 65-66; 72-73; 87-88; 91-92; 23-24) (very strong in 82-83; 97-98; 15-16)

The atmospheric concentration of Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) has increased by ~18% in 5 years. SF6 is the most potent Greenhouse Gas known to man, around 24,300 times more powerful than CO2. It remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years.

Someone at the other site noted that this factoid doesn’t contextualize the UK’s “fair share” of global emissions in a world with 1.5C carbon budgets. Fair point - here’s a chart that does help contextualize that: