This is the third paragraph of the 'Results' section of the Structured Abstract in Judd et al. 2024 (you know, the 485 million year history of Earth's mean temperature that Skeptics LOVE to misuse). It's amazing how many DENIER MYTHS are obliterated in this one paragraph 👇

I've added 2025 to this ridiculous chart

Humanity emitted more Greenhouse Gases in 2025 than any year ever

Why 2026 is unlikely to set a new record for Warmest Year: open.substack.com/pub/thetrade...

Woah this place is awesome! 6km of forested skating trails🤩

One aurora shot I took from each month in 2025 - from my home at 45.68°North. On my iPhone.

My best pic from each month of 2025 (auroras excluded). Happy New Year everyone!

🥇2024 will hold onto 1st place for warmest year in the modern record. How *long* will this record last? We don't know... but a safe bet, IMHO, is 3 years (i.e. 2027 likely to set a new record). Here's why👇

Sigh... "A former Cold War fallout shelter in rural Nova Scotia is being transformed into luxury condominiums for elite clients seeking refuge from global crises." [What do these elites think they'll find when they surface for air? Do they imagine grocery stores stocked with full shelves?]

1) Generally speaking, global warming is causing both precipitation AND evaporation to intensify. This figure (from Ficklin et al 2022), shows the expected change by late Century in precipitation intensity (top panel), and similarly the change in evaporative demand (bottom panel)

The current policies for the international aviation sector put it on a trajectory where sectoral CO2 emissions in 2050 will be nearly *double* the threshold for a "Critically Insufficient" rating. I think they should come up with a new category, "Catastrophically Failing".

My response to a recent post by Zizek claiming Communism is the only answer to ecological crises: open.substack.com/pub/thetrade...

It's been a dream of mine since I was a kid to go to a FIFA World Cup soccer game live some day. Next June my 'home team' is playing, just a few hours' drive away ... But tickets for nosebleeders are CDN $2,364 ... each! 😭 Think I'll watch with friends and family at home, thanks!😅

Interesting. A couple months ago 2025 was tracking to be one of the lowest burn area years globally since 2012. But an uptick in wildfire burn area in Africa in recent weeks has put 2025 back toward the mean...

meanwhile, at the other place... the quality of the discourse is really something else.

"The slowdown in the September Arctic sea ice melt is likely to continue until 2030–2040. Nevertheless, a phase of accelerated Arctic sea ice decline may ensue when the NAO passes the peak positive phase after 2030–2040." www.nature.com/articles/s41...

For Xmas I’m breaking up with OpenAI. Done with their chatbot’s incessant bullshit. chatGPT being used for harm in so many ways. I’m out.

My latest newsletter muses about what the intensification of the hydrological cycle could mean for my community in the future... open.substack.com/pub/thetrade...

This is some creepy shit

New paper just dropped about sticks and carrots in climate policy: “Policy carrots alone do not dramatically reduce future emissions. Only with policy sticks are there unambiguous signals to substantially shrink the size of incumbent fossil fuel industries.”

"Global EV sales are up 21% this year, with every region posting double-digit growth except North America, which saw a 1% decline. A new Leger poll confirms that the high upfront cost of EVs remains the top barrier for Canadians..." - Clean Energy Canada

The North American temperature anomaly forecast map for around XMas is something to behold!

oh boy.

A different kind of Faustian Bargain...

“We project a global temperature record of +1.7°C in 2027, which will provide further confirmation of the recent global warming acceleration.”

FIVE TIMES FASTER NOW!

Ha! Colleagues at UofT have built a project called "We Did It!" - where they build upon fictional storylines from the future (circa 2050) thinking *back* on how Canada managed to successfully achieve Net Zero and a just transition: wedidit2050.ca/about/

“Here, using three global glacier models, we project a sharp rise in the number of glaciers disappearing worldwide, peaking between 2041 and 2055 with up to ~4,000 glaciers vanishing annually.”

Interesting schematic showing various discourses of delay, from a new paper "Countering the Climate Change Counter Movement: Six lessons from Canada's climate delays" by Samuel Lloyd and Ekaterina Rhodes (link in next bleet).

There have always been floods. But we know that a warmer climate increases the likelihood of extreme precipitation. So, part of flood risk mitigation includes assessing heightened risk in the future AND trying to get the world to stop global warming as quickly as possible 👍

From @hausfath.bsky.social's new piece over at CarbonBrief on the causes of the last three years of accelerated warming. Chart below specifically shows range of estimates of warming caused by the International Maritime Organization's 2020 regulations. (That's Hansen's estimate at the top)

So… these firms are paying EV owners to charge their cars, then reselling this as carbon credits to fossil fuels importers, all as part of Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations 🤔 What do we think of this?

Not all "renewable fuels" are the same... Some are even worse for the climate than petroleum fuels. But apparently ethanol made with corn stover cellulose, particularly using a "biochemical enzymatic process," is apparently a carbon-negative fuel. From: visualizingenergy.org

Country Leaderboard... National Sulfur Dioxide emissions. 1750 to 2022.

As this chart (from IPCC AR6 technical summary) shows, global temperature increase has closely tracked cumulative CO2 emissions. As of 2024 the world has emitted about 2750 Gt CO2.

Come work with me! My department is hiring a Canada Research Chair (Tier 2) in Environment and Security! Posting here (and let me know if you have any questions about applying): uottawa.wd3.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/uOttaw...

Come work with me! My department is hiring a Canada Research Chair (Tier 2) in Environment and Security! Posting here (and let me know if you have any questions about applying): uottawa.wd3.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/uOttaw...

Ladies and Gentlemen, AGI is here!🤣

Pro tip for new profs at this time of year: make sure to count your exams to make sure you have enough copies 😅

From Copernicus: This shows how the expected date for breaching 1.5C has been creeping ever closer in recent years. The orange date shows the baseline for the extrapolation; the red date shows when 1.5C is breached based on the trend...

🤓 Man, this is some very cool stuff from NASA! It visualizes one month of aerosol particles moving throughout Earth's system (from August 2024). Green=Sulfate Red=Carbon Purple=Dust Cyan=Sea Salt [Keen readers will note the pun above😉]

🤓 Man, this is some very cool stuff from NASA! It visualizes one month of aerosol particles moving throughout Earth's system (from August 2024). Green=Sulfate Red=Carbon Purple=Dust Cyan=Sea Salt [Keen readers will note the pun above😉]

From Copernicus: This shows how the expected date for breaching 1.5C has been creeping ever closer in recent years. The orange date shows the baseline for the extrapolation; the red date shows when 1.5C is breached based on the trend...

Five wild animals I’ve seen within 500 meters of my front door: Black bear Coyote Fox Owl Bald Eagle

Was mostly right…

What's going on with sesame oil, cottonseed oil, groundnut oil yields?

Amazing chart! Daily anthropogenic global CO2 emissions (MtCO2 per day). 2023, 2024 and 2025 (up to Sep 30). Weekly peaks seem to fall on Thursday-Friday; Weekly troughs seem to fall on Sundays. Makes sense that Annual peaks occur during NH winter.

For those trying to keep up with what's what in this latest MOU between the Feds and Alberta, I've got you covered: We're still light on the details, as the announcement will be formally made tomorrow. But gleaning from news reports, this is the deal:

Who else remembers *checks notes* 6 months ago when climate misinformers were telling us that Antarctica was gaining ice? 🙋🏻‍♂️

👀 “A new global study suggests that people everywhere, regardless of country or wealth, spend almost the same amount of time travelling each day — about 78 minutes.”