Super happy to see this paper finally formatted. While this paper might seem about political fundraising, it's really about the theory of *parties*: is it a broader network (UCLA school, i.e., Bawn et al. 2012) or elite/institutions-driven (re: Aldrich)? doi.org/10.1086/735435

1/🧵 A major update to our paper: "Scaling Reproducibility" w/ Leo Yang [Cross-posted from X] We move beyond reanalyzing a single design to (almost) full-paper replication! Paper: bit.ly/repro-ai

in conjunction with this report, we are also today releasing the data for the 2025 CES common content. includes interviews with 17,000 American adults conducted in late 2025. dig in! doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

What explains the rise in geographic partisan segregation in the U.S.? While most studies focus on residential mobility, generational change and Democrats leaving their party explain a much larger share of that trend. See our @voxeu.org column 👇👇 and our paper: www.vincentpons.org/partisan-seg...

Just now noticing a very interesting write-up by @ryanburge.bsky.social which makes use of our #VRscores data from the Politics at Work project with Justin Frake and @reubenhurst.bsky.social. Tremendously exciting to see how people are making use of the data to uncover new insights!

8. But insisting in the face of the evidence that LLMs are useless and that everyone who says otherwise is a dead-eyed cultist - well, it _absolutely_ does provide evidence of who is clinging to a cult's organizing prophecies after the eschaton was supposed to happen but didn't, and who is not.

Meanwhile, Wiley journals do not allow peer reviewers to use AI to evaluate manuscripts.

Just made a manuscript/PAP feedback GPT built from 150+ previous peer reviews - identifies problems and provides actionable feedback on the points that I raise most frequently chatgpt.com/g/g-68af4d19... Anyone can use - try it out! (Editors/authors: feel free to cut me out of the loop 😉.)

When I pitch academics on my paper on nulls one common and understandable reaction is "but they're probably noisy and thus uninformative nulls." This is true, but it misses the key realization that WE PUBLISH THE RESULT WHEN THE NOISY TEST IS P<0.05.

Also see Jon's comment, which expresses my feelings about this really well. If you look at the paper and think about what *kinds* of tasks RAs would be asked to do for this, you'll see there are much better uses of their time (for both learning and productivity objectives). bsky.app/profile/jonm...

There are solutions to the problem of null results and we know them. One of them is the widespread introduction of Registered Reports across journals. It is not that we lack solutions but that we lack the will to change things (and accept a potential decline in the IF that we all love so much)

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

Check out the new paper! And please please please send us both gut reactions and harsh criticism.

This short thread is worth a read, but this stands out to me. I've found that null results often elicit a "yes, but what about..." response. Yes, we don't find any effect of x on y, but obviously (despite previous assertions by others) the real effect of x is on z.

@causalinf.bsky.social nails the experience of using Claude Code and how it is so different from what has come before. People want to know "how do I use the AI" and the answer is simple: "just talk to it!"

On the "does ideological moderation help candidates win debate?": - candidates' ideology reflect strategic choices (endogeniety) - perceptions of candidate ideology are related to candidate quality (endogeneity) - favorable race dynamics attract higher-quality candidates (endogeneity) 🤔🤔🤔

🧵 New version of our paper (@bcegerod.bsky.social) is finally online: "How Many is Enough? Sample Size in Staggered Difference-in-Differences Designs" We show that even well-identified DiD studies are often underpowered; sample sizes needed are surprisingly large Paper: osf.io/preprints/os... 1/6

Things are grim. But in more frivolous news... @jamesbrandecon.bsky.social and I have been chipping away at `dbreg`, a 📦 for running big regression models on database backends. For the right kinds of problems, the speed-ups are near magical. Website: grantmcdermott.com/dbreg/ #rstats [1/2]

🎺 Call for proposals 🎺 1️⃣ replicate an existing experiment 2️⃣ run a novel experiment on repdata.com 3️⃣ coauthor with Mary McGrath and me to meta-analyze the replications and existing studies 4️⃣ publish your study details: alexandercoppock.com/replication_... applications open Feb 1 please repost!

SV needs to pick up Polanyi (more of a slog than James C. Scott, but worth it). AI will be disruptive but the idea that it will inescapably accelerate inequality only follows if you assume societal institutions are not themselves likely to be disrupted. www.wsj.com/tech/ai/why-...

“These findings provide clear evidence that data collected on MTurk simply cannot be trusted.”

Bookmarking this for the next time I someone cites Ansolobehere et al. 2003 to claim that FEC donation records reflect ideological consumption and are thus a good measure of ideology for corporate elites www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Measuring the Ideology of Political Parties Worldwide vrollet.github.io/files/Ideolo...

🎉 Tremendously excited to announce the release of VRscores—an open-source dataset for researchers and journalists interested in studying the political lean of different employers.

Companies are hiring many more internal policy specialists than lobbyists; it is a much larger investment in politics and internal expertise www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/HallSun25.pdf

Proposal for how to fix family wise error rates. For every uncorrected p value you must add an extra letter to the claim. “Eating chocolate maaaaaaaaay be associated with lower rates of stroke”

New York City is the Riyadh of America www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/n...

Excellent reference for those, like me, who can always benefit from a refresher on statistical power

📢 Thrilled to share our new article introducing CampaignView—a comprehensive open-source dataset of congressional candidate campaign bios and policy platforms (2018–2022). Paper + data here: campaignview.org & doi.org/10.7910/DVN/... 🧵1/4

Wild times for those of us who study corporate sociopolitical activism

Constitutional questions aside, it isn’t clear to me what the net partisan electoral effect would be? CA and NY would presumably lose representatives (and thus electors), but so would FL and TX?

Much of my recent research has been thinking critically about whether it is always reasonable to use public campaign finance records as a good way to understand corporate executives' political ideology. So it is pretty striking to see someone "saying the quiet part out loud!"

In the political literature this is known as donating for access. It’s very common. Campaign donations should be interpreted as strategic manifestations of political goals, not expressions of true preference.

Going to #AOM2025 and working on #nonmarket strategy or know someone who is? Join our PDW on Research Frontiers in Nonmarket Strategy — now in its 8th year! 🗓️ Sat, July 26 | 11:00AM–1:30PM 📍 Bella Center, Auditorium 12 📝 Pre-register by ***July 1***: umdsurvey.umd.edu/jfe/form/SV_...

Measuring and Modeling Neighborhoods Measuring and Modeling Neighborhoods By Cory McCartan, New York University, Jacob R. Brown, Boston University and Kosuke Imai, Harvard University Granular geographic data present new opportunities to understand how neighborhoods are formed, and how they…

📄 @fgilardi.bsky.social created this template for writing abstracts several years ago, and I’ve tried to follow Fabrizio‘s suggestions ever since. PDF: fabriziogilardi.org/resources/pa...

Americans who report paying “a lot of attention” to news (everyone on this platform) are (a) in the minority of voters and (b) very, very prone to assuming the other side of the aisle is all extremists. This is counterproductive to broader party efforts at persuasion. I have sources: 🧵

Most people consume less than 1 hour of news per day (Pew). The result of this is that they are simply not or are ill/mis-informed, and do not have hard preferences on policy or parties. About 15-20% of voters can correctly identify positions as belonging to the left or right (Kinder and Kalmoe, 17)

Some of us have been saying this for years.

After years of doubt, drafts, and disbelief, my first—and likely last—book is finally out. It’s about how entertainment shapes American politics. If you preorder (a.co/d/ctGUWkZ), I’d love to send a small token of thanks: forms.gle/1YrkYX2t2nPC...

Wow! Three scholars at Columbia, Michigan, & Maryland just introduced a measure of the partisan leanings of employers in the U.S. The data is constructed by linking voter registrations to online worker profiles. VRscores capture the political affiliations of 21.8M workers across 2.6M employers.

He was trying to summarize the recent DiD literature.

I am looking for a post-bac (Dartmouth language for a pre-doc) researcher to join our team studying elections and democracy. If you (or someone you know) have expertise in data science or political science, please apply or share this opportunity! polarizationresearchlab.org/hiring/

1/ Excited to share our new paper on measuring workforce politics with @reubenhurst.bsky.social and Justin Frake, where we measure the partisan composition (Democrats and Republicans) for over 3.5 million companies and nearly 28 million workers.

We created SuperBPE🚀, a *superword* tokenizer that includes tokens spanning multiple words. When pretraining at 8B scale, SuperBPE models consistently outperform the BPE baseline on 30 downstream tasks (+8% MMLU), while also being 27% more efficient at inference time.🧵

Things are definitely going great over here, why do you ask?

A lot has been written on the causes of polarization, but Avidit Acharya, Theo Serlin and I wanted to ask a different question: How Polarization *Ends* Paper link and 🧵 tinyurl.com/jp2pk4rt 1/10

Hurray!