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The holidays are a time to come together, but polarization still looms over our country in so many ways. It impacts family gatherings, faith communities, and our democracy. Learn more about the solution at the webinar with @ryanburge.bsky.social, hosted by @rns.org. us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

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"If you say you are a Christian who never attends church, you might as well be an atheist." That may be valid from a theological perspective. But politically, those two groups are worlds apart. 63% of never attending Protestants voted for Trump. It was 11% of atheists.

"Homosexual couples should the right to marry one another." Share agreeing in 2018, 2021, 2022, 2024 Democrats: 77% -> 79% -> 82% -> 78% Independents: 62% -> 58% -> 66% ->68% Republicans: 58% -> 46% -> 51% -> 46%

Always helpful to see how large (or small) a bunch of religious denominations/groups are. This data is compiled by me from a bunch of disparate sources all over the internet. There should be some type of universal reporting system for this. So, someone get on it.

Support for legal access to an abortion if a woman wants one for any reason. 2000: Never Church Attenders: 52% Weekly Attenders: 23% 2024: Never Church Attenders: 74% (+22) Weekly Attenders: 33% (+10)

What role should the US take in the conflict between Israel and Hamas? 22% of the public says "stay out of it." 26% wants to send arms to Israel. It's 59% of Jews. 23% wants to deploy US troops to the region. It's 40% of Jews. Basically no one wants to arm Hamas.

I've got a really fun post on the newsletter today about the religious beliefs of CLERGY. This question asks about religious beliefs. 98% of Black Protestant clergy believe in God without a doubt. Evangelicals: 89% Catholics: 85% Mainline: 70%

How would I describe Latter-day Saints politically? Clearly Republicans. They were hesitant to go full MAGA back in 2016. But a whole bunch of them warmed to Trump in 2020 and 2024. It's hard to know the 'default' distribution of LDS votes, though. Maybe ~70% GOP.

The share of Catholics who attend Mass weekly in 2008 vs 2024, by age. 18-35: +11 36-44: +5 45-54: -5 55-64: -13 65+: -21

Let me help you all contextualize just how bad the Southern Baptist Convention's membership losses are. They have shed ~3.6M members since 2006. The entire Assemblies of God is 2.98M. The ELCA is 2.9M Lutheran Church - MO Synod is 1.7M American Baptists are 1.2M

Black Christians are much more socially moderate than the the average Democrat. 24 points more likely to want to ban abortion pills in the mail. 20 points more likely to support a ban on gender transition for minors. 30 points more likely to support school vouchers

You know that narrative that is out there about a religious revival among Gen Z? I get asked about it a lot. This is brand new data from the General Social Survey (released yesterday). Gen Z are the least likely to be weekly attenders. The most likely to be never attenders.

62% of white evangelicals have watched Fox News in the past 24 hours. Just 16% of atheists have watched Fox. Meanwhile, 48% of atheists have watched MSNBC. Just 13% of white evangelicals have watched MSNBC.

Here's a really interesting oddity in the data. In the United States, education is positively related to religious attendance. More educated people are more religiously active. In Europe, it's the exact opposite. It's a bit of a puzzle, really.

From what I can see in the data, the idea that there's this huge rise in people who are highly spiritual but not at all religious is just way, way overblown. It was only 4% of the population in 2022.

The share of Southern Baptists who believe that: "the Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word" was 58% in the 1980s. In data collected in 2021 and 2022, it was 75%. An all-time high.

A couple years ago we asked a bunch of evangelicals if they were fine with women serving in various leadership roles in the church. 87% would allow women to teach Sunday School 81% would allow women to preach at a woman's conference. 73% were fine w/them preaching on Sunday.

*whistles to self* Look at all that liberal drift inside the Southern Baptist Convention.....

The majority of United Methodists voted for Trump. So did the majority of Evangelical Lutherans. And Presbyterian Church USA. As far as I can tell, the only majority white "major" Protestant denomination that clearly leans Democratic: The Episcopal Church.

Rank and file mainline Protestants are not liberal. They've never been liberal. They are moving increasingly towards the Republican party. Please stop saying "liberal mainline."

I think we've oversold the whole idea that millennials have left the church in droves. In 2008, 24% of them reported weekly attendance. In 2024, it was 22%. But here's the bigger story: 24% of Gen Z are weekly attenders. Higher than Gen X and Millennials.

The people with the highest self-reported level of happiness? Those who attend religious services weekly. But look at the top row - that's people who attend services in-person weekly. Their level of online attendance has little bearing on their happiness.

Here's a map of a whole bunch of megachurches throughout the United States. In a new paid post today, I do some initial analysis of denominational breakdown, state by state analysis and explore the relationship between population size and number of megachurches.

In Europe, there are some countries with a rate of devout Christians that rival many states. For instance, 39% of Poland is weekly attending Christians. That's similar to Utah and N. Dakota. But a big chunk of Europe is in the single digits. Less than Maine at 10%.

It looks like the rise of secularism in Europe has also hit a plateau recently. I compared religious attendance rates in 22 countries between 2018 and 2023. In many, the share who never attend hasn't moved that much. And attendance has increased a bit in a handful.

Human Flourishing is a measure meant to assess overall well-being on a bunch of dimensions: health, character, finances, etc. I was really shocked to see how much flourishing declines when young people hit 18 years old. And it never really recovers.

After growing rapidly for 20 years, the number of secular Americans has plateaued. I talked to @ryanburge.bsky.social about that trend & others as eyes turn toward the most high profile religious election in the world. Check it out on GDPolitics.com & wherever you listen to podcasts!

You know what types of Catholics really like Trump? Old ones that attend Mass pretty often. You know which ones don't like Trump that much? Young ones that rarely go to Mass. Shocking, I know. Follow me for me very hot takes with data.

Time to update our priors about the Catholic vote! It used to be 50/50. Now it's R+14 Donald Trump got 64% of the white Catholic vote. The highest I've seen. He also got 40% of non-white Catholics, up 16 points from his 2016 results.

Among white voters. Here's the Democrat's coalition: People who never attend church. Especially those with an associate's degree or more. Here's the Republican coalition: People who attend church once a year or more.

Tony Jones and I did a huge survey of the nones. Here's what we concluded: Belief is still really strong! The share of the non-religious who say: -Heaven doesn't exist and -Hell doesn't exist and -God doesn't exist ...was only 16%.

Weekly religious attendance rate: 2008 - 31% 2012 - 29% 2016 - 28% 2020 - 26% 2024 - 25% (down 6 pts since 2008) Never attendance: 2008- 20% 2012 - 24% 2016 - 26% 2020 - 30% 2024 - 34% (up 14 pts since 2008)

Remember a couple months ago when @JDVance talked about the concept of ordo amoris? He's a convert to the Church. Are they more active and more conservative than cradle Catholics? Data says that converts do attend Mass with more regularity than cradles.

What happened with evangelicals in the 2024 election? 83% of white evangelicals voted for Trump. The highest ever. He also gained 8 points among non-white evangelicals. That voting bloc is evenly split now for the first time. Evangelicals, as a whole, were R+52.

About 99% of the comments on this post from the NYTimes say that non-religious people lead meaningful lives. And that's empirically true. But what's also empirically true is that non-religious people are less likely to believe they live a meaningful existence than people of any religious faith.

Nearly all Christian clergy definitely believe in the bodily resurrection of Jesus Christ. 99% of evangelicals. 97% of Black Protestants. 92% of Catholic priests. The only outlier: the mainline. 75% definitely believe. 15% probably believe in the bodily resurrection.

My plan is to tell an incredibly in-depth story about what happened with religion and politics in 2024. I've already produced 35 graphs and written 12,000 words. And I'm not even halfway there yet. These will be published in regular intervals on my newsletter.

I've spent 20 years looking at data about the impact of religion. Attending a house of worship regularly is not a universal solution to everyone's problems. It may actually be a net negative for some. But for the average person - attending corporate worship will benefit them.

According to some folks on social media, educated people don't believe in 'fairy tales' The data says: Someone with a masters degree is just as likely to believe there is life after death as someone who didn't finish high school. ReLiGiOn iS tHe oPiAtE oF tHe mAsSeS, amirite?

This graph is visually boring, but is completely fascinating to me. It's the share of people who "believe there is life after death." It's actually gone UP, just slightly since 1973. Even as religious attendance and affiliation have dropped exponentially.

The state of the modern internet: It used to be the case that one could post a link on Facebook or Twitter to another website and drive some traffic. Those days are OVER. Less than 1% of all my Substack traffic comes from social media. And, no, Bluesky is no better at this for me.

Laws that would require pornography websites to verify the age of their users are *incredibly* popular among the general public. 80% of all Americans are in favor. Most supportive: LDS: 92% Evangelicals: 90% Least supportive: Agnostics: 63% Atheists: 53%

Republicans are way more 'culturally religious' than Democrats. Among Republicans who never attend religious services: 37% say religion is somewhat or very important. Among Democrats who never attend: 13% say religion is somewhat or very important.

The non-religious factor that is the most predictive of being atheist, agnostic, or nothing in particular? Political ideology. 62% of very liberal people identify as religiously unaffiliated. It's 11% of very conservative people. In 2008, that was 41% vs. 7%.

Really strong evidence of a religious resurgence in England and Wales from new data from the Bible Society. Among 18-24 year olds, share attending monthly: 2018: 4% 2024: 16% Among 25-34 year olds: 2018: 4% 2024: 13% Overall, attendance went from 8% to 12%.

Two things can be true at once. 1. Overall levels of religiosity are declining. 2. But religious people are actually *more* religious now. Look at the top left graph - that's the share of 18-35 years old Christians who attend church weekly. It's up 7 points since 2008.

47% of the Silent Generation is Protestant. 22% is Catholic. Among Gen Z, 22% are Protestant. 16% are Catholic. Share who are non-religious: Silent: 19% Boomers: 25% (+6) Gen X: 33% (+8) Millennials: 42% (+9) Gen Z: 46% (+4)

Here's how a bunch of majority white denominations voted in 2024. The only one where a clear majority voted for Harris? The Episcopal Church. At least three quarters of Assemblies of God, Southern Baptists, and non-denominationals supported Trump.