Sadly, this is important. Not Argentina, but when and how Rs turn against him. When the downturn really hits, and cutting rates does nothing, there will be panic, and more Rs will turn. This is the most likely way he loses power. We can’t just assume it will happen, but we should start planning.

Breathe. I recommend 4-2-6 breathing. Enjoy your current surroundings. They're likely pretty good! I love this cafe I'm working from. Remember this too shall pass. Focus on your next step. One day at a time.

Wrote this yesterday chanda.bearblog.dev/knowledge-is...

ROSENBERG: “.. The share of the country in expansion mode these past six weeks, at 18%, is the lowest share since May 2020. .. The reality is .. at least qualitatively, the economy is in a mild recession -- stock market doesn't see it, but the bond market does.”

Omg the reviews are coming in. “brilliantly dispassionate reporting” is the highest honour I could get as a journalist. The Daily Mail calls The Immortalists “riveting”. The Financial Times calls it “an entertaining and insightful account”. HBD to me no that’s dust in my eye

The need for a Linux distro built around using a locally hosted LLM continues to grow.

You're somewhat weekly reminder that this, too, shall pass. That doesn't mean there's not work to do now or later. This is not about apathy. There's so much to do. One step at a time. But nothing is ever permanent.

A friend is making some great dad hats. Every dad should have one. When back in SF, wearing this till it falls apart. strategicpivotery.printful.me/product/disr...

Hearing more and more from thoughtful engineers about moving away from AWS. It's not the monopoly and lock-in that people think it is.

I still do feel guilty every time I curse. Just a function of my cultural upbringing. It fucking sucks.

The Martingale System works until it doesn't.

We need more threads like this. What's working. How to help. The why. I don't need more dunks on authoritarian hypocrisy. Not as useful. Peaceful protest is THE important first step, the initial commitment of millions. Talk about what's working and why. Thank you, @drlisacorrigan.bsky.social

In social movement studies, we talk about how marches and protests expand the threshold of acceptable risk so that people take more and bigger social risks IN PUBLIC, EN MASSE. This is extremely important for the bourgeois white folks holding signs and building social rapport.

I am now in love with this image for multiple reasons. Thank you @frankitodevito.bsky.social

Humor is what wins. Not seriousness. A flower in a gun barrel. A frog with magic hands. Don't take the regime seriously. They are not serious people. Laughter is the way.

YEEEESSSS

I love yelling at my LLM editor. I forgot who gave me this prompt addition: "Don't be patronizing or default to agreeing with the premise of everything I say and be objective at all times." It was such a great line. Ping me if it was you, I want to give credit!

"Literacy is the path from slavery to freedom. But there are many kinds of slavery and many kinds of freedom. But reading is still the path." -Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark

Yup

I love this place, but not how it keeps me from reading more books. Talk to y'all in a few days.

Everyone’s talking about a recession again. Most headlines miss the single indicator that actually moves first, the one that tells us when things are really turning. I wrote about it here (and how to watch it even if the BLS is closed): writings.alethia.news/the-biggest-...

Cal not pulling any punches here: calnewport.com/on-charlie-k... I dove back into social media today because this was unfortunately an "event" and a marker of further societal deterioration. But, I do suggest walking away from this whenever you can. Read. Breathe. Help those around you.

Software Geek post: I'm here to tell you to eat your vegetables before your AI dessert. writings.alethia.news/product-obse...

my children very politely asked if they could just please read their own books tonight rather than listen to me read. which is fine btw. it's only been every night for 9 years. with voices. some people might mind but not me. GOOD voices too, with real drama. but it's fine of course,

My first meme. 👇🏼

Short response to coppolaemilio.com/entries/what... TL;DR: A bubble is gonna bubble. There will always be work in the real sense. People to help: writings.alethia.news/and-what-cou...

Some musings on what I wish financial news actually looked like. "So Many Signals. So Little Rigorous Analysis": writings.alethia.news/so-many-sign...

Something important you probably missed in the last jobs report: Construction and manufacturing employment just turned negative YoY, a classic recession signal. Credit to @epbresearch.bsky.social for this, the kind of signal Alethia is built to highlight. writings.alethia.news/cyclical-job...

Always enjoyed reading Justin’s stuff. He gets it and what is actually changing right now: justin.searls.co/posts/full-b... Hype is anything with the word “agentic.” What every dev worth their salt is talking about right now is just how fast we are now building stuff. Not hype.

So, I'm writing again. Here's one with me grousing about "AI agents": writings.alethia.news/stop-with-th... Also, I have something brewing I'm calling Alethia. Just writings are public for now. More to come...

“For I was hungry and you gave me to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me to drink, I was a stranger and you invited me in, I needed clothes and you clothed me, I was sick and you looked after me, I was in prison and you came to visit me.” Matthew 25:35-36 Badia Fiorentina, Florence

Accounting Identity. Thank you @hussmanjp.bsky.social

So, I am really feeling the change in software development now and it is awesome. I'm still surprised at how quickly I and Cursor are producing projects. It initially spits out crappy code, but you can quickly get it obeying good software principles with some iteration. I'll still have a job. 1/

try guessing which wikipedia page this is

Cursor and AI in general doesn't always give good code recommendations. But boy, do I love it for setting up a new project.

I'm changing the way I interact with BSky. Social media, including this site, is still too much of a time suck. I'm building a simple tool that sends me digests of my favorite authors (if you're reading this, you likely are one). If you don't see me online, I'm still reading you!

Trade deals are hard. The proper response to trying to force the issue, especially if he likes caving, is "No." This is his mess. He doesn't control the frame.

Just a reminder of events today. ISM Manufacturing PMI was not good, we just doubled our steel tariffs over the weekend, China is withholding rare earths, and the 30 yr is now at 5%... But everything is fine?

And it still seems likely that 'bullwhip' effects begin showing up over the next few months as early-year swings in supply and demand ripple across the US and global economies:

Auto manufacturing taking it on the chin. In addition to steel tariffs, they aren’t getting rare-earth magnets. Expect pleas for relief from the auto industry.

".. American automakers are the hardest hit .. production at factories across the Midwest and South could be cut back in the coming days .. Carmakers need the magnets for the electric motors that run brakes, steering and fuel injectors." @nytimes.com $GM $F $STLA www.nytimes.com/2025/06/02/b...

Commerce Sec Lutnick: "rest assured, tariffs are not going away. He has so many other authorities that even in the weird and unusual circumstance where this was taken away, we just bring on another or another or another." Great news for the small businesses this administration claims to love

1/ Thanks to Elizabeth Lazarowitz at the @nytimes.com for chatting with me about people working more than 1 full time job, a paradoxically "hot labor market" phenomenon that's now partly unwinding! www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/b...

Some rough math on steel tariffs and cars. From this article, a 25% tariff leads to a rough $1500 increase in price www.automotivedive.com/news/tariffs... So a 50% tariff should lead to a $3000 increase. The car industry is a key part of the cyclical economy. Layoffs there start recessions.

We are currently clean on opsec 👊🇺🇸🔥

We are like butterflies who flutter for a day and think it is forever.

When unemployment starts spiking, we're going to see a lot more of this and quite possibly martial law. Effective non-violent (and humorous!) protesting that takes the piss out of these goons as opposed to escalating is going to be essential. Start thinking and planning.

Remember, Roy Cohn trained Trump on the importance of distraction. This one should be ignored.

We have a 19.8% collapse in US goods imports (chart on right), yet Earnings Growth is somehow expected to be positive in 9 of 11 S&P 500 sectors YoY. 👇🏼 I think there might be more than a few analysts that aren’t connecting the dots.