OER (Owners Equivalent of Rent) is something I’ve spent a lot of time on in previous posts. 👇🏼 This has a more than 40% weighting in the CPI calculation, so if this trend continues (as I expect it to), deflation is the risk that almost nobody is talking about.

One of my all time favorites. 👇🏼

Thread 🧵 Not my data, from a friend on X: After a recent Jan 2025 retroactive reclassification of C&I and Consumer Loans finally started reporting into the FRED statistics.

Considering that most of the gains in M2 have been the monetary base not money, makes Mark’s chart is even scarier.

With all due respect to Bob, traditional banks are loaning much more money to NDFIs, who are then making all the high risk loans. They just moved the risk, but it’s still systemic.

I don’t understand the trolling here. He made a call that was incorrect. But his track record beats almost everyone (amateurs and pros). 👇🏼 Does one bad call two years ago define you?

Oops! 👇🏼

It's fascinating. The deficit of one sector emerges as the surplus of another. Basically, 30% of wealth is held by the top 1%, 67% by the top 10%, and just 2.5% by the bottom 50% of households. One sector rises to the extent the others sink. Not politics. Just accounting.

The great irony of this is that while this may be in anticipation of deflation, protectionism leads to more deflation. 👇🏼

WTF? We’re allowing a foreign country to build a military base on US soil? 👇🏼

AI CapEx deals explained. 👇🏼

The billionaire circle jerk continues.

The S&P 500 Index - Regression to Trend At the end of September, the inflation-adjusted S&P Composite Index is 193% above its long-term trend. 👇🏼 Since August, the index has been 4 standard deviations above trend for the first time in history. But please, tell me more about how there’s no bubble.

From the author of ‘Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room’. 👇🏼 “In other words, there will be enormous societal change, and deeply uneven and hard-to-predict financial outcomes. And the financial engineering will mask the signs of collapse, until it doesn’t. If only AI could solve that conundrum.”

The White House announces that the US Treasury will be producing $1 coins with President Trump's face. 👇🏼

The return from today to tomorrow is proportional to the crash hazard rate. In essence, investors must be compensated to hold an asset that might crash - implying an underlying risk, not yet revealed in the price dynamics, which justifies this apparent free ride and free lunch. – Didier Sornette

According to ADP, not only were private payrolls revised down from 54,000 to -3,000, but September’s numbers came in at -32,000 when 51,000 was expected. But please, tell me more about how the labor market is just “softening”. 🤦🏻‍♂️

😂😂😂

I forget who it was, but a while back someone said the top isn’t in until Chamath unloads another SPAC. Well…

This won’t age well. 👇🏼

Since she’s suddenly in the news again, I thought I would share this historic photo of Amelia Earhart and Duke Kahanamoku taken on Oahu in 1937. 👇🏼

The definition of insanity. 👇🏼

For many of us, he’s been the unwavering voice of our collective conscious for a very long time. ❤️

About that final GDP figure: How and why did Intellectual Property Products (Line 12) go from 6.5 to 15 QoQ? Anyone?

A new market comment from @hussmanjp.bsky.social just dropped and it dispels a lot of myths. 👇🏼 www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

Self own. 👇🏼

End of week cleanse. Happy Aloha Friday everyone. Olowalu Sunset, Maui, Hawaii 🤙🏼

Oops! 👇🏼

Legendary

This is some banana republic shit right here. 👇🏼

None of us are bearish enough.

End of week cleanse. Happy Aloha Friday everyone. Sunrise at Sandy Beach, Oahu, Hawaii

If you’re not familiar with Russell Napier, I suggest you get familiar with him. He’s the author of ‘Anatomy of the Bear’ and a brilliant financial market strategist. This wide ranging interview is worth your time. He rarely does interviews.

Charlie Kirk was just assassinated. I loathe his politics, but this is shameful. Violence begets more violence. Our country is rapidly devolving.

This is my quant. 👇🏼

Some of us have been warning for the last couple of years that the labor market is much weaker than people think, that the numbers don’t add up. There are moments (like today) where we all have an opportunity to check to see who’s been accurate and who hasn’t.

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” - Mark Twain

The irony is that nobody has any pricing power left, consumers are tapped. 👇🏼 And this is a “mitigation strategy”? Really?

End of week cleanse. Happy Aloha Friday everyone. Kula Sunset, Maui, Hawaii 🤙🏼

Keubiko's Hierarchy Of Grifting™️

“The last two times this yield curve cycled from inversion to a spread of +1.25%, it coincided with the two most wicked bear markets in generations.” It’s actually the last four times this happened, but who’s counting. Bulls, you are here. 👇🏼

Oops! 👇🏼

That’s one rough #ISM chart, via Brean:

As much disdain as I have for the current attacks on Fed independence, it’s pretty rich for Janet Yellen to be talking about credibility. 👇🏼