“.. A broad range of specialists .. have called Mr. Trump’s orders to the military patently illegal .. murders — regardless of whether the 43 people blown apart, burned alive or drowned in 10 strikes so far were indeed running drugs.” @charliesavage.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...

Stop repeating - or believing - that the President, regardless of party, has "absolute" immunity for all actions. That's not what the Supreme Court ruled. Not all acts are an exercise of "core constitutional powers" - certainly not actions that violate the law or the Constitution itself.

No Kings youtu.be/Nku7kdol5GY

heartbroken to learn the pope sympathizes with the poor. how can i continue to believe in god

Yep - "Another factor contributing to speculative euphoria and programmed collapse is the specious association of money and intelligence. Such reverence indicates the shortness of memory, the ignorance of history, and the consequent capacity for self- and popular delusion." - JK Galbraith

It's fascinating. The deficit of one sector emerges as the surplus of another. Basically, 30% of wealth is held by the top 1%, 67% by the top 10%, and just 2.5% by the bottom 50% of households. One sector rises to the extent the others sink. Not politics. Just accounting.

You know it's a bubble when this is their math. Look. Valuations map to deliverable cash flows. Price/Revenue? Yes, particularly if margins fluctuate. (Price/Revenue)/Margin = Price/(Revenue x Margin) = P/E Ok, if margins are permanent. (P/E)/Margin? That's Price/(Revenue x Margin^2)

‘The US stock market is basically as expensive as it has ever been.’ www.man.com/insights/roa...

"It’s not just the unusually sharp rise in dispersion that is worrisome right now; it’s also the fact that that dispersion is being driven by the stocks most sensitive to a turn in the broader credit cycle." - Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social, The Felder Report

Soundtrack for Sep comment: She Did It - Eric Carmen, 1977 Session roster is crazy! Backup: Beach Boys Bruce Johnston & Brian Wilson Burton Cummings - Guess Who Nigel Olsson - Elton's drummer Drums: Jeff Porcaro - Toto Guitar: Andrew Gold (Lonely Boy) www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cjxp...

The return from today to tomorrow is proportional to the crash hazard rate. In essence, investors must be compensated to hold an asset that might crash - implying an underlying risk, not yet revealed in the price dynamics, which justifies this apparent free ride and free lunch. – Didier Sornette

Excellent summation of AI usage: "... the less you’re willing to think, the more vulnerable you are to having AI think for you, and the more you’re willing to think, the greater the opportunity you have for AI to leverage your insight....Our most urgent focus should be on that choice."

gotta love a regularity, particularly when you don't rely on it

’The singularity is not the date of a “crash.” Rather, it’s the point where the pitch of the advance reaches its extreme.‘ www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25... by @hussmanjp.bsky.social

A new market comment from @hussmanjp.bsky.social just dropped and it dispels a lot of myths. 👇🏼 www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

New comment is up! 🐳 www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

‘The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is hovering around 37.5. Over 35 is ”the only cutoff point where every single time is negative.”‘ www.businessinsider.com/stock-market...

This is, because that is This is not, because that is not. They are like this, because we are like that They are not like this, because we are not like that. - Buddha We are all made of one same substance; a shared humanity. The only enemy is our forgetfulness of that reality.

Great Doodle today if you're a math geek 🤓 doodles.google/doodle/learn...

"it's funny 'cause it's true" - Homer Simpson

1/ JAMA (2024): Acetaminophen use during pregnancy was not associated with children's risk of autism, ADHD, or intellectual disability in sibling control analysis. Cites confounding in prior studies. Own view: mild bump in risk for ADHD, but dose/duration dependent. jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

As @peteratwater.bsky.social would say, "there's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere." Fun fact: the S&P 500 also averaged total returns of about 20% annually over the 18-year period to the 2000 bubble peak (see my August comment for more). Love that the author's last name is Karma.

As followers of feed are well-aware, "un-" words like unstoppable and uninvestable always make me pause. Needless to say, "unsinkable" took my focus to a whole new level. www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-un...

‘Recent crises have helped to routinise — and sustain — government and central bank support. At the same time, ageing demographics, poor health and national security are raising demands on the state.’ www.ft.com/content/62b4...

Student exercise: Show why this comment demands a violation of transversality in monetary liabilities, government debt, and equity prices (hint: see the Geeks Note in my latest comment) Bonus: find the 3 one-word sentences that summarize how such a violation would affect our investment discipline.

Added a "Geek's Note" at the end of this month's piece, to make the math explicit, as well as some additional discussion for non-mathy readers 😀

New comment is up! 🐳 www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

'Investors now rely on an ever-expanding Bubble Term that was driven by “free money” monetary and fiscal policies that will not only have to persist – but will have to expand without limit in order to keep up with that Bubble Term.' www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25... by @hussmanjp.bsky.social

“Remove her. She no longer amuses me.”

Easily one of the coolest inventions I've seen this year, for so many reasons. From The Week - April 25, 2025

‘The 10-day average of retail participation in non-profitable technology companies reached 23% — the highest level since a Goldman Sachs trading desk began tracking it — and rose to 25% this week.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘Last week, the Barclays Equity Euphoria Indicator, which uses options data to quantify investors’ giddiness, jumped to its highest level since late December.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“The latest bout of extreme crowding — currently in the 100th percentile — is in high-beta stocks. And this spans both riskier low value alongside speculative growth plays.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/720 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

🫤

July comment is up! 🐳 www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

‘With our most reliable stock market valuation measures at the highest extremes in US history, it’s useful for investors to remember that a market crash is nothing but risk-aversion meeting a market that is not priced to tolerate risk.’ www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25... by @hussmanjp.bsky.social

🤣🤣

S&P information technology index: price revenue ratio hey, you do you.

I'd front-load too - does keep the narrative going for a bit. Hanging back slightly with hedge strikes (per Sep implementation) but my goodness are the overextension flags popping up. As usual, no forecasts are required, but yikes.

it's crazy how medicaid, food stamps, and poor people spike the federal debt every time we bail out failing banks, hand massive subsidies and tax cuts to corporations, or see a speculative bubble collapse - just crazy

‘The current instance of the S&P 500 price/forward earnings ratio is one the most overextended in U.S. financial history, consistent with likely 10-year total returns of about zero.’ www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25... by @hussmanjp.bsky.social

Always a good day when I get to read a Hussman market comment

Accounting Identity. Thank you @hussmanjp.bsky.social

"If someone reads my stuff and says 'Hussman is predicting X,' particularly as if we rely on X to happen, they didn’t read my stuff." I have no pointed expectations. Maybe it holds up. Maybe it collapses. Risk is very high in my view, but fluctuation is enough. www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

“For I was hungry and you gave me to eat, I was thirsty and you gave me to drink, I was a stranger and you invited me in, I needed clothes and you clothed me, I was sick and you looked after me, I was in prison and you came to visit me.” Matthew 25:35-36 Badia Fiorentina, Florence

New comment is up! Worth the wait I hope 🙂 www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

May nonfarm payroll figure 44k higher than the figure reported in April. +139k - 95k in downward revisions for the prior 2 mos. May Index of aggregate hours worked 124.4, down -0.3 from the 124.7 figure reported in April. +0.1 - 0.4 in downward revisions for prior 2 mos.🫤

This might be called "proxy confusion" - misreading the behavior of x rather than understanding it reflects y "We've got a huge spike in 911 calls - the phones must be on the fritz."

Nearly every arbitrary, targeting, vindictive, irrational, capricious, retaliatory action of this executive branch is a violation of equal protection, due process, the take care clause, the nondelegation doctrine, and the prohibition of bills of attainder and ultra vires actions.