tbh my interactions with Mike Green have been a bit itchy-scratchy, but he's getting needless hate for this thought-provoking piece: www.yesigiveafig.com/p/part-1-my-... I'll offer the second half of this, as a companion: www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25... connects deficits and profits too

New research from Bill Hester 🐳 www.hussmanfunds.com/research/rs2...

“the corporate profitability that investors presently attribute to productivity and innovation is actually the accounting result of record government and household deficits…maintaining this level of profitability…actually relies on massive and sustained deficits in other sectors”

Feels extra-special when you get a motherlode of syndromes with all the sinister names. Even that little 2024 one was a quick 7% loss - typically down 7-15% within 60 sessions. Several far worse, particularly over longer time frames. NOT a forecast, no scenarios, may be nothing, strictly FYI

you are correct dozens and dozens of warning flags at weekly and daily resolutions. Not a forecast - we don't need to rely on any particular scenario, but market conditions definitely join extreme valuations with internal dispersion and reversal of leadership that typically means "phase transition"

Excerpt from Steuart's speech yesterday. You know from our equilibrium work that every dollar of surplus to one sector of the economy (income - consumption and net investment) is a mirror image of someone else's shortfall. That also holds for the top 1% versus the bottom 99%

Among the fresh "motherlode" of warning syndromes this week

The "market" is just total shares outstanding. If you put cash "into" the market, you hand your cash to a seller. In return, they hand their shares of stock to you. Someone has to hold the pieces of paper and digital entries called "cash" until the Fed retires them. There's no bucket in the middle

3.92 Now look at 0.97 where historical data implies a 10% return Now look at 1.75, the highest level ever followed by 10% - only because that 12-year period ended at the Q1 2020 peak Now notice that matching the largest outlier in history would still get you to only 5.5%😬

It’s a banger. 👇🏼

"much of the wealth isn’t a reflection of labor or even invention—it’s a gain based on the negative externalities and private monetization of an unrecognized public good—the network effect—with no associated compensation to the public." @hussmanjp.bsky.social www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

New comment is up! 🐳😉 www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

Some words from Thay, in case you could use them today. As the Buddha said, better than a thousand useless words is a single word that brings peace. 🤗🌸

“.. A broad range of specialists .. have called Mr. Trump’s orders to the military patently illegal .. murders — regardless of whether the 43 people blown apart, burned alive or drowned in 10 strikes so far were indeed running drugs.” @charliesavage.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/10/24/u...

Stop repeating - or believing - that the President, regardless of party, has "absolute" immunity for all actions. That's not what the Supreme Court ruled. Not all acts are an exercise of "core constitutional powers" - certainly not actions that violate the law or the Constitution itself.

No Kings youtu.be/Nku7kdol5GY

heartbroken to learn the pope sympathizes with the poor. how can i continue to believe in god

Yep - "Another factor contributing to speculative euphoria and programmed collapse is the specious association of money and intelligence. Such reverence indicates the shortness of memory, the ignorance of history, and the consequent capacity for self- and popular delusion." - JK Galbraith

It's fascinating. The deficit of one sector emerges as the surplus of another. Basically, 30% of wealth is held by the top 1%, 67% by the top 10%, and just 2.5% by the bottom 50% of households. One sector rises to the extent the others sink. Not politics. Just accounting.

You know it's a bubble when this is their math. Look. Valuations map to deliverable cash flows. Price/Revenue? Yes, particularly if margins fluctuate. (Price/Revenue)/Margin = Price/(Revenue x Margin) = P/E Ok, if margins are permanent. (P/E)/Margin? That's Price/(Revenue x Margin^2)

‘The US stock market is basically as expensive as it has ever been.’ www.man.com/insights/roa...

"It’s not just the unusually sharp rise in dispersion that is worrisome right now; it’s also the fact that that dispersion is being driven by the stocks most sensitive to a turn in the broader credit cycle." - Jesse Felder @jessefelder.bsky.social, The Felder Report

Soundtrack for Sep comment: She Did It - Eric Carmen, 1977 Session roster is crazy! Backup: Beach Boys Bruce Johnston & Brian Wilson Burton Cummings - Guess Who Nigel Olsson - Elton's drummer Drums: Jeff Porcaro - Toto Guitar: Andrew Gold (Lonely Boy) www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cjxp...

The return from today to tomorrow is proportional to the crash hazard rate. In essence, investors must be compensated to hold an asset that might crash - implying an underlying risk, not yet revealed in the price dynamics, which justifies this apparent free ride and free lunch. – Didier Sornette

Excellent summation of AI usage: "... the less you’re willing to think, the more vulnerable you are to having AI think for you, and the more you’re willing to think, the greater the opportunity you have for AI to leverage your insight....Our most urgent focus should be on that choice."

gotta love a regularity, particularly when you don't rely on it

’The singularity is not the date of a “crash.” Rather, it’s the point where the pitch of the advance reaches its extreme.‘ www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25... by @hussmanjp.bsky.social

A new market comment from @hussmanjp.bsky.social just dropped and it dispels a lot of myths. 👇🏼 www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

New comment is up! 🐳 www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

‘The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is hovering around 37.5. Over 35 is ”the only cutoff point where every single time is negative.”‘ www.businessinsider.com/stock-market...

This is, because that is This is not, because that is not. They are like this, because we are like that They are not like this, because we are not like that. - Buddha We are all made of one same substance; a shared humanity. The only enemy is our forgetfulness of that reality.

Great Doodle today if you're a math geek 🤓 doodles.google/doodle/learn...

"it's funny 'cause it's true" - Homer Simpson

1/ JAMA (2024): Acetaminophen use during pregnancy was not associated with children's risk of autism, ADHD, or intellectual disability in sibling control analysis. Cites confounding in prior studies. Own view: mild bump in risk for ADHD, but dose/duration dependent. jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

As @peteratwater.bsky.social would say, "there's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere." Fun fact: the S&P 500 also averaged total returns of about 20% annually over the 18-year period to the 2000 bubble peak (see my August comment for more). Love that the author's last name is Karma.

As followers of feed are well-aware, "un-" words like unstoppable and uninvestable always make me pause. Needless to say, "unsinkable" took my focus to a whole new level. www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-un...

‘Recent crises have helped to routinise — and sustain — government and central bank support. At the same time, ageing demographics, poor health and national security are raising demands on the state.’ www.ft.com/content/62b4...

Student exercise: Show why this comment demands a violation of transversality in monetary liabilities, government debt, and equity prices (hint: see the Geeks Note in my latest comment) Bonus: find the 3 one-word sentences that summarize how such a violation would affect our investment discipline.

Added a "Geek's Note" at the end of this month's piece, to make the math explicit, as well as some additional discussion for non-mathy readers 😀

New comment is up! 🐳 www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...

'Investors now rely on an ever-expanding Bubble Term that was driven by “free money” monetary and fiscal policies that will not only have to persist – but will have to expand without limit in order to keep up with that Bubble Term.' www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25... by @hussmanjp.bsky.social

“Remove her. She no longer amuses me.”

Easily one of the coolest inventions I've seen this year, for so many reasons. From The Week - April 25, 2025

‘The 10-day average of retail participation in non-profitable technology companies reached 23% — the highest level since a Goldman Sachs trading desk began tracking it — and rose to 25% this week.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘Last week, the Barclays Equity Euphoria Indicator, which uses options data to quantify investors’ giddiness, jumped to its highest level since late December.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“The latest bout of extreme crowding — currently in the 100th percentile — is in high-beta stocks. And this spans both riskier low value alongside speculative growth plays.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/720 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

🫤

July comment is up! 🐳 www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc25...