Tis the season... Just a reminder that as your mood drops this time of the year, and with that, the stories you tell about yourself change with that, please be nice to yourself.

As many re-awaken to the reality of our K-Shaped Economy, I'd offer that while the economics are interesting, it is the divergence in feelings that matters. Today, a small group atop the arm of the K feels invulnerable, while a growing crowd feels increasingly desperate.

Our location on the Confidence Quadrant determines what we want, what we do, how we think, and the stories we tell ourselves and others. So where are you this morning?

I realize this is entirely self-serving, but if you want to better understand why America's K-Shaped Confidence should be a top concern, I recommend my book "The Confidence Map." It explains how our feelings of certainty and control drive our preferences, decisions, and actions.

@petersagal.bsky.social, There's a "Bluff The Listener" question in here somewhere...

A great visual summation of the current economic state of America from @BlacklionCTA over on X this morning:

“The fundamental challenge with a K-shaped economy is that for those at the top, you would hike rates sharply — while for those at the bottom, you would lower them dramatically" My thoughts in @byHeatherLong's latest column: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Something something K-Shaped Economy...

When confidence is low, we not only paint with the widest brush, we only use black or white paint.

‘4th largest inflow to gold funds on record.‘ www.dailychartbook.com/p/758 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social @mikezaccardi.bsky.social

‘When risk is on your side, you want more of it. And there’s no doubt that risk has worked out recently. Who wants to diversify when concentration has worked so well?’ www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...

KHOSLA: “.. This isn’t your usual bubble mania. Most valuations are bonkers .. “.. capital concentration is extreme. .. there will only be a few winners.” 👀 @theinformation.com www.theinformation.com/articles/ai-...

“For those with financial assets, real estate, they are experiencing a sense of permanence to their wealth. Those at the bottom though they experience the income effect and are really struggling because they have no benefits of ownership.” @peteratwater.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Hmmm a mainstream article using the word "unstoppable" in relation to gold after price has gone from $1600 to $3500 in 3 years. As @peteratwater.bsky.social would say ... There is a sentiment indicator here.

As someone who was already worried about the K-Shaped nature of our economy, I am especially troubled by the recent headlines that suggest trickle-down economics has now morphed into a monsoon that floods those at the very top without ever impacting the soil below.

ICYMI - I shared some thoughts on the markets and geopolitics with CarolMassar and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Radio. www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

This is America: Access to public services restored thanks to a gambling website so people can get to a football game. www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/fanduel...

As followers of feed are well-aware, "un-" words like unstoppable and uninvestable always make me pause. Needless to say, "unsinkable" took my focus to a whole new level. www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-un...

"Ever"

With many now awakening to the rise of nationalist capitalism, I have some thoughts on what makes today's era such a challenge for investors. www.linkedin.com/pulse/invest...

With CEOs piling up on the front steps of the White House, I suppose it is fitting that a group of fawns is called a "parcel."

Golden Share 2.0

Because who among us at age 23 and with no prior investment experience didn't manage $1.5 billion of other people's money... www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

As we move around the Confidence Quadrant not only do our feelings change, but so does how we think, what we want, what we do, and even the stories we tell ourselves and others. So, where are you this morning?

Look closely and you can see shareholder primacy moving further and further back in line.

Fawning isn't a taking of control; it is an acknowledgement that control has been taken.

I used to talk about the K-Shaped Economy in terms of the arms and legs of the K. Given how extreme the economic divide has become, I think the only accurate way to use the term now is by referring to the fingers and toes of the K. There is little in between.

FWIW - From a behavioral perspective, it's not "a little bit like" but identical. As I wrote earlier this week, fawning is "a standard operating procedure for those in the Passenger Seat seeking to achieve and sustain beneficiary status" of a dominant leader. www.linkedin.com/pulse/visual...

"The economy is increasingly dependent on a small sliver of superstar companies and wealthy consumers to stay afloat... From @byheatherlong.bsky.social, who was the first to report on the "K-Shaped Recovery" that is now an extreme "K-Shaped Economy." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Something something unstoppable...

Wow. I think Mr. Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social has a saying about media following mood. Is that a bell I hear ringing?

There's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere...

"What on the surface may appear to be a regaining of control may be anything but that. Moreover, once control is ceded, the certainty gained in exchange may be fleeting." My thoughts on how to visualize and think through acts of submission. www.linkedin.com/pulse/visual...

As companies mandate a return to in-office work, they would be wise to reflect on the certainty and control many employees gained from home-from-home. For many, back to office equates to an increase in powerlessness and uncertainty.

LOL - "a spirited turnaround"

“Unsinkable retail investors” www.nytimes.com/2025/08/05/b... ht @peteratwater.bsky.social

"Runaway Valuation"

To the journalists writing about today's Tesla news, just a reminder that submission comes in two forms. We comply with the demands of institutions. We obey the commands of individuals. If the second seems more extreme, consider the notable difference between non-compliance and disobedience.

Someone might want to send a copy of "The Confidence Map" to the board of a certain electric car manufacturer.

"Finance as entertainment"

Of late, it feels like our K-Shape Economy has narrowed and morphed into an AI-Shaped Economy with overabundance and overinvestment inside it and scarcity and financial strain outside it.

A Sunday morning thought. There may be no more powerful chains to hold us back than the stories we tell ourselves when our confidence is low. What we miss is that they are reflective, not predictive. They always fall away as our confidence rises.

Something Something K-Shaped Economy... cc: @kairyssdal.bsky.social

Seems like a good moment to reshare that it is always the stories we attach to objective data that matter.

"one of the largest start-up cheques ever"

There's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere...

History may not repeat, but it sure rhymes...

"Just like NBA Stars"

I was reminded this afternoon that it's been two years since the launch of "The Confidence Map." A sincere thank you to everyone who has bought the book and to all the groups who have welcomed me to discuss it and how it applies to what they do. It's been a wild ride!

"Relentless"