Bad policies and bad debt.

Fun discovery: on an apples-to-apples basis, Trump's tariff taxes are larger than the tax increases in the House-passed version of Build Back Better in 2021. Of course, the distribution of Biden's tax hikes on corporations and millionaires are different from Trump's tariffs.

House now taking the first of two procedural votes which include language embedded by Republican leadership that would surrender congressional powers to block Trump’s tariffs until August. They’ve passed these measures several times over the past year; this extension expected to be a close vote

NEW: In January, the White House promised to crack down on fraud. Weeks later, it has become weaponized, as President Trump uses claims of taxpayer theft to penalize Democrats, all the while he pardons his allies connected to the loss of millions in federal benefits www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/u...

Amidst Trump's tariffs, goods inflation reached the highest levels since 2023 in data released today While price increases are much lower than during the worst of the early pandemic, inflation for goods excluding food & energy is still higher than at any point during the 2010s

probably no relation

Like what can we even say? The president is threatening to harm our allies unless they agree to sell their land to us.

We're hiring at Third Way! Are you a health care wonk? Come be out newest Deputy Director for Health Care www.thirdway.org/careers#depu...

CBPP’s @gbenga-ajilore.bsky.social breaks down the latest economic data from the December #JobsReport, zooming in on how tariffs have impacted jobs in the manufacturing sector.

Great piece by @josephpolitano.bsky.social on job loss in manufacturing, construction, & utilities. A lot of drivers but current policy is playing a major role. America is Losing Blue Collar Jobs, by @JosephPolitano open.substack.com/pub/apricita...

Exercise is a good thing, and I'm gonna be hooting and hollering like a dang fool if I see you out there getting after it in whatever capacity, but if you use your physique or fitness to demean others, get fucked, truly

There are no trade deals anymore. Any “deal” made by Trump can and will be arbitrarily broken at any moment. No country or corporation can know what happens tomorrow.

THEY KNOW THAT TARIFFS RAISE COSTS ON CONSUMERS www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Mary Sheffield will become the first woman elected mayor of Detroit, CNN projects. Follow live updates. https://cnn.it/4oRiL7z

Jay Jones (D) wins the race for Virginia attorney general, NBC News projects.

BREAKING: Dem Rep. Mikie Sherrill has won the race for New Jersey governor. She defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli to retain Democratic control of the governor's office as Dems win both of the year's gubernatorial races.  Read more: politi.co/49xNGRV

The third woman in this photo is Rep. Chrissy Houlahan. She's also amazing and don't sleep on her political future either.

Imagine a D president were refusing to spend money Congress provided for priorities only important to Rs while also spending money on purposes he wanted that Congress didn’t even provide. Would a funding bill that lets the president keep illegally ignoring the budget be “clean?” Of course not.

“If Congress lays down its arms on its most fundamental authority, I don’t know what leg they’re going to have to stand on,” said Brendan Buck, aide to former GOP House speakers Ryan and Boehner. Agreed. It’s a baffling & frightening threat to the constitutional order. wapo.st/4n5ksgv

Russ Vought has carried out his section of Project 2025 essentially word for word, illegally manipulating and controlling spending inside the White House, overriding enacted laws, the will of Congress, and agency discretion. His section is very short, and I recommend anyone profiling him read it.

boo

Japan is just a few days away from running out of Asahi Super Dry as the producer of the nation’s most popular beer wrestles with a devastating cyber attack that has shut down its domestic breweries www.ft.com/content/bb86...

You know they made sure this wasn’t going to get shutdown.

I always wait until I get home at least.

I don’t expect markets, Congress, or the courts to come to the Fed’s rescue. My piece asks what can the Fed do now to try to protect itself from political control? www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

It’s hard to overstate how big a deal this is - for the economy (ours and globally), for the rule of law, and for the proper and efficient function of government. www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08...

Even the appearance of forcing out a sitting Fed Board member over politics would be a 500 alarm fire for any previous admin Attacking Dr Cook is ridiculous You can yell this is a huge own goal, but they can't hear you over the traffic they're playing in

Well. Here we go

Democrats should focus like a laser on the issue of affordability. Donald Trump is 25 points underwater on the issue of inflation. Since 2024, there has been a 34-point swing against him. Trump promised to lower costs but instead he has driven up prices for working families and small businesses.

Great new analysis from Zach. I worked with Zach back in 2014 on the Senate Budget Committee under Patty Murray.

NYT: “.. the U.S. economy has maintained its reputation as the safest place in the world for investors to put their money .. Trump may be chipping away at that advantage.” @nytimes.com @colbylsmith.bsky.social @bencasselman.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/b...

Read ours new analysis of OBBBA's impact on kids here⬇️ www.thirdway.org/memo/obbba-i...

The VP is in Ohio today to say OBBBA is good for families. But we did the math🧮. The Republican budget bill is not remotely pro-family on net. In fact, it will leave future generations dangerously worse off. /3

🚨New Budget Analysis🚨 We @thirdway.bsky.social did the math on the Republican Budget Bill--By 2030 it takes more away from kids than potential benefits. By the end of the budget window its a $42B net drain on kid's and their future. /1

We looked 🔎at the final CBO score of the bill and tallied up what could go to kids (like CTC and Trump accounts) what’s taken away (like kids share of SNAP ) and layered in the fact that the next generation👶 faces a growing burden from debt payments as it wasn’t paid for.💸 /2

🚨New Budget Analysis🚨 We @thirdway.bsky.social did the math on the Republican Budget Bill--By 2030 it takes more away from kids than potential benefits. By the end of the budget window its a $42B net drain on kid's and their future. /1

New budget math from @thirdway.bsky.social coming soon.....

Just an innocent bystander, no doubt just out walking his dog.

NEW: CPI Inflation rose to 2.7% year-on-year, increasing 0.2% month-on-month Core CPI inflation rose 3.1% year-on-year, growing 0.3% month-on-month

WSJ finds that an important trend has reversed: low wage workers are no longer seeing faster wage growth than high earners. The Bessent Treasury has frequently cited low wage gains as a success of Trump’s economic management www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...

A fun thing to watch today: TIPS yields! TIPS interest rates are tied to CPI, like social security COLAs. You can’t escape socaec cuts if these guys mess with inflation data. Bond holders can, and TBH I would. A thing to watch and one senators should be asked about before confirmation votes

Trump Is Replacing Billy Long as I.R.S. Commissioner www.nytimes.com/2025/08/08/u...

I am once again asking everyone to please stop being The Worst.

New paper from me explaining "pocket rescissions," an illegal budgetary maneuver the White House is planning to do in the very near future that, ironically, misuses an aspect of the Impoundment Control Act to permanently impound funds. (Thread on the paper) www.americanprogress.org/article/what...

“The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) strongly condemns the removal of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and the unfounded accusations leveled against the work of the agency… A totally apolitical group. files.constantcontact.com/668faa28001/...

The Trump slowdown has arrived

New tariff executive order just released, and the official start date for tariffs was pushed to next week from instead of tomorrow, but we're raising tariffs for roughly 68 countries plus the EU, with some tariffs now as high as 41%. Literally Liberation Day 2 Electric Boogaloo.

Oof. www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

THEY'RE LITERALLY DOING LIBERATION DAY AGAIN