Prophesy Not Punditry
@danlb.bsky.social
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Lawyer, writer, software developer, Quaker
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From The Former Place:
11 months ago
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Aaron Rupar
about 7 hours ago
STEPHANOPOULOS: I didn't insinuate anything. I asked you whether Tom Homan accepted $50k as was heard on an audio tape recorded by the FBI in September 2024. You did not answer the question. Thank you for your time. VANCE: No, George, I sai-- STEPHANOPOULOS: We'll be right back
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Max Kennerly
about 11 hours ago
IMHO, LLMs will be an economic negative for years. They'll do a worse job than humans, but will still replace humans because they're cheaper for employers, but really they're costlier, it's just that lots of costs get externalized to society by our horrible energy/tax policies. Lose-lose-lose.
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The Real AI Risk is ‘Meh’ Technology That Takes Jobs and Annoys Us All
While AI doomsday scenarios dwell on the risks posed by superintelligent robot overlords, one Nobel-Prize winning economist fears a more mundane possibility.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-10/will-ai-usher-in-an-economic-boom-or-just-a-lot-of-mediocre-automation?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc2MDI2Nzg3MCwiZXhwIjoxNzYwODcyNjcwLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUM1dNNDdHUEw0MTIwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI4NzU5NDI1Q0VFODg0NjVCOUVDOUY4Nzg4MkRCMDlFNSJ9.HKA05nkQHJt9guuEqIhS8p_z3xhhkJfECD3fI_loAI0
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I so hope this is true.
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about 10 hours ago
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Andy Craig
1 day ago
The thing about the Roberts Court is they're not evil geniuses, because they're not geniuses.
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Barred and Boujee aka Madiba Dennie
12 days ago
this has been my thought exactly with all of these funding resolutions like, why would I agree to shit if Trump is just gonna impound it and do whatever he wants, regardless of how the money is appropriated? if y'all want our funding decisions to be meaningless, let's not have em
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Will Stancil
1 day ago
Call me naive but I think the people of this country broadly do care about freedom and democracy, even though they’re still people, with the short attention spans and general malleability that people always have, and I think appealing to those better angels is the path out
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Catherine Rampell
1 day ago
Trump’s immigration crackdown is risking higher food prices for Americans, according to the Trump admin itself. DOL warned in an obscure document last week that “near total cessation of the inflow of illegal aliens” is threatening “stability of domestic food production and prices for US consumers.”
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Trump administration says immigration enforcement threatens higher food prices
U.S. farmers face labor shortages and potential food price hikes due to Trump’s immigration policy, the administration acknowledged in a Federal Registry document.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/10/11/immigration-crackdown-food-prices/
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David Corn
1 day ago
A classic case of irresponsible both-sidesism from the NYT. The story is that Trump and MAGA propagandists are lying about Portland to incite a conflict, not that there are different views of the matter.
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Leah Litman
1 day ago
More judges speak to the press (the NYT) about what a disaster the Supreme Court (specifically the shadow docket) has been - “incredibly demoralizing & troubling”; a “judicial crisis”; a “slap in the face to district courts.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/u...
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emptywheel
1 day ago
Per NYT, Trump is trying to criminalize being generous, which I can understand if you're Trump but may not work out. Under rules, Tish James could do short term rental in first year. She did (and made <$5K). Then her great niece has lived there, rent free.
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/u...
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Don Moynihan
2 days ago
Incredible Congressional hearing opportunity here which is to ask Oz if he knows how numbers work. Like, Katie Porter whiteboard stuff: "Ok, if the drug was $100 per month, and it was reduced by 650%, what would the price be?"
bsky.app/profile/atru...
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Adam Serwer
2 days ago
Trump, a vocal war crimes enthusiast for more than a decade, is mad he didn’t get the nobel so his aides are gonna spend all day humiliating themselves in competition over who can kiss his ass better
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Oliver Willis
4 days ago
The mainstream media refuses to explain to the public that almost all of Trump policy is based on his obsessive watching of Fox News.
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Eliza Orlins
4 days ago
No Kings 2 is Oct 18. Show up. We need you.
#NoKings2
#Courage2025
youtube.com/shorts/gQ1BT...
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No Kings 2 is Oct 18. Find or host a protest near you at courage2025.org/nk2. #NoKings2 #Courage2025
YouTube video by Eliza Orlins
https://youtube.com/shorts/gQ1BTmtCR0E?feature=share
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David Roberts
4 days ago
"The US, which has positioned itself as a major fossil fuel exporter, sold $80B in oil and gas abroad through July, the last month with data available. China exported $120B in green technology over the same period." Like the man said, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. 🌬️
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emptywheel
5 days ago
I'm on the record saying that Russ Vought will do things during the shutdown that will make his illegal rescissions visible in the way they otherwise weren't. And boy howdy, threatening to ignore the law on backpay is a great example. [corrected]
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Don Moynihan
6 days ago
Work requirements are going to cost a ton to implement, at a time when states will have less administrative resources, and despite evidence that they don't work
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jamelle
6 days ago
this is incredible
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Paul Rosenberg
6 days ago
Your friendly every-so-often reminder: "fix" is a contranym. So the GOP really DOES work to fix healthcare. In the same way the Mafia works to fix things--races, boxing matches, etc.
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Kat Abughazaleh
7 days ago
I’m horrified by Trump’s order to send 300 National Guard troops to Chicago. We’re only nine months into a four year term and already the president is trying to invade an American city. If you’re in the Guard, you can and should refuse these orders.
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Wow.
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8 days ago
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The Borowitz Report
9 days ago
Trump has not been seen in public since Tuesday, and while that is a cause for celebration, we must prepare ourselves emotionally for the possibility that we may someday see him again
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This. I learned years ago that arguing on the internet is pissing into the wind. Waste of time.
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9 days ago
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Dante Atkins
9 days ago
If you understand the history of American coinage, you understand just how much of a full-circle betrayal of American values this represents. Here's a small thread to explain. 1/x
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Trump Asks JD Vance To Research Whether President Allowed To Kill Vice President —
theonion.com/trump-asks-j...
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Trump Asks JD Vance To Research Whether President Allowed To Kill Vice President
WASHINGTON—Calling him “the best man for the job,” President Donald Trump reportedly asked JD Vance Thursday to research whether the president was allowed to kill the vice president. “I mean, Article ...
https://theonion.com/trump-asks-jd-vance-to-research-whether-president-allowed-to-kill-vice-president/
9 days ago
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emptywheel
10 days ago
Kathy Hochul is awful and all that but we need more of this kind of advertising.
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Dante Atkins
10 days ago
Do any of these people realize that if you make people have residency in order to receive emergency services, that you're going to end up with a lot of dead tourists?
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Don Moynihan
10 days ago
A good political message for Dems is that Republicans say they are unwilling to hold Trump/Vought accountable, so elect someone who is.
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Jamal Greene
10 days ago
As
@genevievelakier.bsky.social
notes, this scheme is squarely unconstitutional under existing cases. There's some tricky nuance in the doctrine, but the thrust is that the government may not condition receipt of federal funds on ideological agreement with the government (or on refusing to speak).
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If a study did not support that conclusion, then the study would be wrong.
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10 days ago
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Dante Atkins
10 days ago
Yeah, well, this is what abusers do when they don't get their way. They destroy the house that everyone lives in because long-term consequences take a back seat to short-term indulgences of fear-inducing rage. We're in the smashing plates and taking a baseball bat to lamps phase of this now.
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Yes, Republicans had 54 Senate votes for their spending resolution and declared a shutdown because they would rather shut the government down so they can blame Democrats for not adding more votes to their majority.
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11 days ago
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Kevin M. Kruse
11 days ago
As someone who wrote a book literally titled WHITE FLIGHT, I’d just like to say that the argument that *whites* were the victims of violence in neighborhood transitions is so laughably racist it’s almost insane.
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Kevin M. Kruse
11 days ago
As with Charlie Kirk, Republicans are fiercely loyal to the general idea of Donald Trump but will furiously refuse to grapple with anything specific that he actually says or does.
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Paul Waldman
11 days ago
Kind of incredible just how sweeping and comprehensive the Trump administration's attack on their rural supporters has been. Not even malign neglect, just an outright assault.
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Philip Gourevitch
11 days ago
for once, SCOTUS denies Trump
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Greg Sargent
11 days ago
When Trump threatens to nix funding to NYC if Zohran Mamdani wins, it only helps Zohran. It inflates the Trump threat, positions Zohran as a fighter for NYC against Trump, and pushes Cuomo into the role of Trump stooge. There's a lesson here for Dems. New from me:
newrepublic.com/article/2011...
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Trump’s Rage at Zohran Just Backfired in a Surprisingly Revealing Way
The Democrats who are breaking through are the ones who talk about Trump’s disastrous economic record while also leveling with the public about our slide into authoritarianism.
https://newrepublic.com/article/201158/trump-zohran-attack-backfired-economy
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Yes, Democrats can lead, and be principled, while not alienating the “center.”
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11 days ago
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Indivisible ❌👑
12 days ago
Republicans just shut down the government to rip away healthcare and hand Trump another blank check for his illegal power grab. Instead of negotiating a budget that protects families, Republicans chose to throw working families under the bus. This is the GOP’s shutdown & they own the damage from it.
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Shutdown near certain after Senate again rejects funding bills
Lawmakers are poised to barrel into the first government funding lapse since 2019.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/30/shutdown-near-certain-after-senate-again-rejects-funding-bills-00589136
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Robert Reich
12 days ago
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The Borowitz Report
12 days ago
Hegseth burst into tears, sending mascara streaking down his cheeks.
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Hegseth's Meeting Backfires as Military Audience Starts Chanting, "Epstein, Epstein"
The Defense Secretary fled the stage in tears.
https://www.borowitzreport.com/p/hegseths-meeting-backfires-as-military
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Don Moynihan
12 days ago
This is absolutely a lie. There is no reason shutdowns trigger layoffs. They never have before. Trump is simply using the shutdown as an excuse to take federal employees hostages and to further gut the government.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/shutdown-h...
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jamelle
12 days ago
the president of the united states wants to use the american military to kill american citizens on american soil. that's the whole story!
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James Fallows
12 days ago
This is correct. If you heard someone in an assisted-living facility rambling on this way, you'd be talking with the doctors about appropriate next levels of care. No kidding. And every officer in the room has to realize it.
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Taniel
13 days ago
It feels both that nothing is shocking, but it’s still important to go through the motions of acting like it is because otherwise where are we left.
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David Roberts
13 days ago
Clean energy is now the cheapest energy in the world. Decarbonizing faster means lowering energy bills faster. What a perfect time for some high-profile pundits to amplify the right-wing message that "climate policy" = "higher household costs." So goddamn savvy.
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Joyce White Vance
14 days ago
As a US Atty, I prosecuted and oversaw police excessive force cases. We took them seriously because they were serious abuses of power. What we're seeing now is the outbreak of an epidemic & instead of being condemned by fed'l law enforcement leaders, it seems to be tolerated if not encouraged.
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Thank you.
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14 days ago
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Kevin M. Kruse
14 days ago
At this point, any Democrat who votes to keep this government open without extracting very serious concessions — RFK’s resignation, ICE rollback, Epstein Files release, etc — will absolutely face a primary challenger who will set fundraising records.
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Joy-Ann Reid
14 days ago
Everyone should read this. Because every word needed to be said. (gift article).
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/28/m...
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What the Public Memory of Charlie Kirk Revealed
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/28/magazine/charlie-kirk-rhetoric.html?unlocked_article_code=1.pU8.TtDu.SURRQSGQLHEg&smid=url-share
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