On Aug 1, tariff rates are scheduled to rise to historic highs. average tariffs on women’s clothing will rise to 48 percent, wine to 20 percent, and toys to nearly 50 percent. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/too-m...

New from my colleague John Wong and myself: in August tariffs on women's clothing will rise to 48%, Men's to 39%. Dolls, toys and games will be tariffed at nearly 50%. The effect may be delayed, but eventually these rates will very likely hurt the economy taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/too-m...

What would the One Big Beautiful Bill Act do to charitable giving? Elena Patel and I try answer that question www.brookings.edu/articles/one...

The 15th annual TPC-IRS conference on tax administration takes place this Thursday. It's not too late to register. www.irs.gov/statistics/f...

Congratulations to newly elected Distinguished Fellows Susan M. Collins, Barbara M. Fraumeni, Joseph P. Newhouse, and Timothy Taylor. #econsky aeaweb.org/about-aea/ho...

More on Stantcheva, who btw is an immigrant from Bulgaria. www.imf.org/en/Publicati....

Well, I'll try

Regardless, I wouldn't count on the uncertainty disappearing on April 2.

Continued uncertainty as to what will happen on April 2. Once these plans are announced, other nation's retaliatory tariffs will likely follow. And, of course, tariffs announced on April 2 could later change. www.msn.com/en-us/money/...

"Liberation" from what? A strong economy and stable business environment? www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

In the short run, Americans will face some combination of higher costs, higher unemployment, and lower profits/reduced values of retirement accounts. In the long run, universal tariffs that try to force all economic activity to "retreat to Fortress America" will likely lead to widespread hardship.

Research with restricted-use data is more precise, powerful, and relevant. Faculty and staff will be working through the weekend to answer important research questions before we no longer can. This is not normal, necessary, or efficient.

"Quite simply and astonishingly, this is dismantling the National Park Service as we know it, ranger by ranger and brick by brick.” This is myopic, execrable policy, which is why vast majorities of Republicans and Democrats do not want it. Poll data—> www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2025/2/...

Mathematica. Urban. Child trends. Abt. Among many others Are getting smashed. As are government analysts who often have phd or masters. The whole field is likely to get smashed. And u say will take decades to rebuild. :(. And ironically its very bipartisan. For decades. Until now.

I wrote a short blog post about the tragedy currently unfolding in the evaluation industry. Trump is destroying vital research capacity and decades of instructional knowledge for pocket change. 1/x rooseveltinstitute.org/blog/the-irr...

You can't grow the economy by retarding economic activity

110 of 363 Taxpayer Assistance Centers and 5 of 10 call centers are going to be shut down, per a meeting that just happened at the IRS. During tax season.

Nothing has happened yet, but even unsuccessful attempts to alter government statistics would be deeply troubling.

Vance is threatening to isolate Russia from the global economy and Trump is promising to isolate the United States from the global economy.

More tariff threats www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

The Tax Policy Center estimates that the change in revenues (2025-2035) from tariffs on imports from Mexico & Canada starting March 1 and on China starting Feb 4 would raise $1.2 trillion, of which $328 billion comes from tariffs on imports from China taxpolicycenter.org/model-estima...

Tariffs...

Wow, that was fast. Irving Energy, company that provides propane/fuel oil customers in New England, says it will pass on the full 10% tariff cost to all their customers immediately (reposting with fixed figure - meant to say 10%, not 30%)

A new analysis from the Tax Policy Center estimates that imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would reduce after-tax incomes by nearly 1% in 2026, costing the average household the equivalent of $930 in lost income. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...

Measured policy uncertainty up, waiting for tariffs econbrowser.com/archives/202... #econsky #tariffs

The Tax Policy Center estimates that a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada would reduce after-tax incomes by about 1 percent and that imports would fall by 40% by 2026. taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/25-pe...

On Tuesday Trump said he would impose a 10% tariff on China. But in 2023, the U.S. collected $44.4 billion in duties on $420.8 billion of imports, for an effective rate of 10.5%. A 10% tariff on those imports would have collected only $42.1 billion.

To a first approximation, every domestic policy problem is a housing policy problem

Economists, if you’re at ASSA meetings, come join me, @jasonfurman.bsky.social, and other panelists as we discuss the Trumpian economic agenda, tomorrow (Jan 3) in San Francisco. Hilton Plaza A 10:15.

Going to #ASSA2025 and looking forward to catching up with old friends. We have a great LERA session on unions and racial/ethnic equality on Sat. at 2:30. Maybe I'll see you there.

Graduate fellowship opportunity at NBER. Application deadline 1/16. Comes with community and mentorship. @heidiwilliams.bsky.social @mclem.org www.nber.org/graduate-fel...

this abstract is INSANE

Have a marvellous Christmas, Bluesky folks!🎄 Thoughts & prayers with those caught up in an unfolding situation in LA.

Attending #ASSA2025? Want to know how to navigate your options with respect to hotels, food, & sessions given SF hotel workers' strike? @shirkandsteal.bsky.social @jennifercohen.bsky.social & I have you covered. Blog w/sign up for email updates. #EconSky aaronsojourner.org/hotel-worker...

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in November and were up 2.7 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, excluding food and fuel, rose 0.3 percent from October and 3.3 percent from a year ago. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12...

Charts! Consumer price inflation picked up modestly in November. That's true by basically any measure -- headline or core, monthly or annualized. #NumbersDay #EconSky

What will Republicans prioritize when they regain their government trifecta next month? A tax overhaul? Energy production? Border security? Nope, writes @crampell.bsky.social. "The GOP’s first order of business: getting rid of math." wapo.st/3ZmsKXu

Many great takeaways on increasing families' access to high quality child care from multiple state researcher-agency partnerships in this set of briefs published @urbaninstitute.bsky.social. www.urban.org/policy-cente...

obviously a localized personal example but US statistical agencies have steadily only gotten better at their jobs over time, meanwhile trust in them have faltered because sitting US senators weren’t calling normal annual jobs revisions government propaganda in 1992

Congressional Budget Office finds that allowing 2017 tax cuts to expire as scheduled would benefit the economy in the long term. Higher marginal tax rates would hamper growth through 2028, but lower deficits would improve growth starting in 2029 www.cbo.gov/publication/...

Donald Trump has proposed a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on China. Recently my colleagues at TPC and I published a brief that provides some context. taxpolicycenter.org/briefs/tarif...

The SF Fed has a new data indicators page providing the contributions by product category to CPI, thanks to @hamza-econ.bsky.social www.frbsf.org/research-and...

Trump, tariffs and prices / GS

The rent CPI level represents the prices of existing leases---this includes households who are not paying "market rate" rents As landlords slowly increase rents to catch up to market rates, so will the rent CPI. Current rent CPI inflation therefore represents a “catch-up” to market price levels

Switching from a charitable deduction to a matching grant would even the playing field by providing the same incentive to everyone, even non-filers. www.philanthropy.com/article/the-...

If you know of good qualitative work (or quantitative) about barriers to work faced by low-income adults please send it my way! Thanks!

What many people don't know: recent decades have seen incredible reductions in poverty. The poverty rate has *never before* been this low in human history. What new data is now revealing: after the setback from Covid, poverty reduction now continues! #econsky t.co/RJEfQE7PRm

The share of humans living in the worst form of poverty (less $2.15 dollars a day) has fallen by 3/4 since 1990(!) The share of people with less than $3.65 has fallen by half. The share with incomes over $10/day grew from 25% to over 40%. (All of these are adjusted for prices).