Things that will interest Bluesky; Misha Glenny, author of McMafia, replaces Melvyn Bragg as host of In Our Time.

An issue we're seeing at all levels of university is that many students are simply refusing to do *anything*. They aren't reading the syllabus, aren't following assignment guidelines, aren't engaging with material, ignoring deadlines. And this might seem like old news, but it truly has ramped up.

🧵 #EconSky

🧵

How US Banks Fund Themselves and Other Things #EconSky

Impulses that could raise or lower 2026 inflation and unemployment

The fog is gone

#EconSky 🧵

#EconSky 🧵

The positive or negative impulses to US growth from now until the next few years could arise from financial conditions, fiscal policy, tariff effects and immigration effects. In 2025, there is an increase in the positive impulses from financial conditions and fiscal

Risk and response: Commodity price response to geopolitical risk, measured as changes in standard deviation conditioned on macro variables (*Price changes are controlled for real rate and dollar changes.)

Good evening

on.ft.com/3W6emBv Dutch seizure of chipmaker followed US ultimatum over Chinese chief

How mega batteries are unlocking an energy revolution ig.ft.com/mega-batteri...

Bill Nelson

on.ft.com/4mUsSqI The Davos set in decline: can the World Economic Forum save itself?

on.ft.com/4mQqLEE Confronting the limits of monetary policy

Human beings are members of a whole, in creation of one essence and soul. If one member is afflicted with pain, other members uneasy will remain. If you have no sympathy for human pain, the name of human you cannot retain. ~Sa’adi

#EconSky Wealth effects are enhancing annualised consumption growth, primarily among higher-income households; though will vary under alternative asset prices (equity and home) scenarios, providing either a boost or a drag.

#EconSky 🧵 Tariffs are seen as a timing issue: the US avoids recession, but growth rebound comes later after full absorption. The effective tariff rate hovers around 9%, and should approach the 16% tariff rate in the baseline outlook over the coming months.(1/n)

on.ft.com/4gKGxze Russia’s hybrid war is ‘only the beginning’, warns Danish PM

The primary objective of adopting a restrictive monetary policy posture lies in curbing the entrenched persistence inherent in backward-looking inflation mechanisms, those adaptive expectations that risk perpetuating elevated price pressures (e.g. due to tariffs), while simultaneously

🧵 The ongoing monetary easing cycle may serve as a safeguard against the potential escalation of the current economic softness in the United States into a more pronounced recession. Nevertheless, the principal apprehension remains the possibility of further deterioration in labour market conditions.

Adjusting to the new tariff regime MS #EconSky

on.ft.com/42kGV1D Switzerland agrees with US not to manipulate its currency

on.ft.com/4pLIQpO Hedge funds and high-frequency traders are converging

🧵 When I pick up a new paper, I often jump straight to the equations first, it's like getting the core structure before delving into the narrative. Then I loop back to the prose for context. Mathematics isn't some opaque foe; it's a language, precise and potent, and above all,

#EconSky Forward guidance is not obsolete per se, but perhaps its current form is, for now. This is uncharted territory: the economy is slowing down, and inflation may or may not prove transitory, depending on how tariffs affect the price level. High uncertainty means there is no

#EconSky Forward guidance is not obsolete per se, but perhaps its current form is, for now. This is uncharted territory: the economy is slowing down, and inflation may or may not prove transitory, depending on how tariffs affect the price level. High uncertainty means there is no

on.ft.com/41Zp0gN Foreign investors in US assets rush for protection against swings in dollar

The SNB — a traditionally opaque central bank — will begin publishing summaries of its policy discussions. How much transparency improves will depend on the detail provided, though the small consensus-driven Governing Board sets natural limits. swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/snb-moves-...

Last night, the village burst into harmonious life for Choir Night! Enchanting melodies filled the air, drifting from the bustling square to the echoing hall and the sacred hush of the old church. 😊 (1/n)

Last night, the village burst into harmonious life for Choir Night! Enchanting melodies filled the air, drifting from the bustling square to the echoing hall and the sacred hush of the old church. 😊 (1/n)

Late night and we’re all singing by the lake 😂

🧵

#EconSky Interesting post👇. Incidentally, the extent to which currency appreciation affects the trade balance depends on whether export and import prices are denominated in the currency of origin or destination. In the United States, 95% of both exports and imports are priced in dollars. In

I couldn't find fennel at the local Coop or Migros for the curry I'm making, so I bought fennel tea and tore open one bag to use instead 😂

Q&A on US data revisions GS

Interview with Alberto Cavallo on the US economic data reliability GS // BLS// #EconSky Recommended

Interview with Alberto Cavallo on the US economic data reliability GS // BLS// #EconSky Recommended

on.ft.com/4mlSCwg Trump halted deportation of Korean workers to encourage them to train Americans, though putting them in shackles is a strange way to encourage them to stay

#EconSky The two-regime Markov-switching regression model, used to detect structural breaks in US economic time series, shows that both the inflation and unemployment series exhibit a dominant low regime, reflecting overall economic stability (with high regimes typically shock-driven and temporary).

#EconSky Interesting post👇. Incidentally, the extent to which currency appreciation affects the trade balance depends on whether export and import prices are denominated in the currency of origin or destination. In the United States, 95% of both exports and imports are priced in dollars. In

The preliminary benchmark revision of -911K amounts to -0.6% to March 2025 payroll employment. Combined with 2-month revisions, recent total revisions are big but hardly unprecedented, & smoothed over the business cycle the payroll survey has gotten more accurate over time.

#EconSky Year-on-year core services inflation fell by only 0.2pp to 3.5% over the past 12 months. While it is important to bear in mind that 2% overall core inflation has generally meant higher core services inflation coupled with

Recommending my very smart friend, Alberto’s interview macrohive.com/hive-podcast...

on.ft.com/467y986 Norway is increasingly disadvantaged outside EU, foreign minister says