Thanks to everyone who engaged with my blog outlining deprivation in Hastings; it now has over 1,000 views. I am currently selling a book that explores housing, poverty, education, health and environmental problems in Hastings. This can be ordered through Amazon. www.amazon.co.uk/Fixing-Hasti...

A blog summarising my research on deprivation in Hastings and how it has increased. It contains visualisations outlining how inequality varies across the town, with the option to make these maps interactive for those interested. www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/depriva...

Enjoyed selling copies of my book at the makers fair this weekend.

🚨Data Update 🚨 We are pleased to release an updated version of the 2024 BES Face-to-Face Post-Election Survey dataset (v1.0.1) that includes improved versions of two important survey weights (wt_demog and wt_vote) based on new estimates of the VEP. www.britishelectionstudy.com/2024-general...

The most recent voting intention of 2024 Labour voters, according to the British Election Study. It shows Labour has lost 20% to "undecided" people, 18.5% to Left-Liberal parties & 10.5% to Right-Authoritarian parties. Full report here: lnkd.in/eabH8EUC

Out of all 2024 Labour voters, only those lost to Reform mostly perceive migration as a negative. Those lost to the Greens and Lib-Dems more often view it as a positive or are indifferent. Labour conference could be used to change tone on migration debate as many of its base would support this.

I'm pleased with the two books I bought today. Judith Dench is for book group. @jamespren.bsky.social author of Fixing Hastings and Rye, was busy at #hastingsbookfest hosted by the #ObserverBuilding His insight and policy prescriptions for #Hastings and #Rye will be valuable to our community.

The most recent voting intention of 2024 Labour voters according to the British Election Study - Wave 30 (2025). It shows Labour has lost 20% to "undecided" people, 18.5% to Left-Liberal parties & 10.5% to Right-Authoritarian parties. It highlights the fragmentation of British politics nicely.

A short article I wrote on the housing crisis in Hastings & St Leonards. It goes through the latest data available (mostly obtained from HBC) and outlines the scale of the challenge the council faces. www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/fixing-...

The Conservative vote splintered across multiple parties in the last election, with it mostly going to Reform. Labour's vote this parliament is fragmenting but mostly in the other direction (with the Lib-Dems and the Greens being the main beneficiaries).

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 30% (-1) LAB: 24% (-1) CON: 18% (+1) LDM: 12% (+1) GRN: 9% (-1) SNP: 3% (+1) Via @opiniumresearch.bsky.social, 11-13 Jun. Changes w/ 28-30 May.

The Leave vs Remain divide in the UK continued to divide the voters perceptions of the political parties across the last parliament. In this case, how well Labour would run the NHS if in government.

ukandeu.ac.uk/losing-faith... An article I wrote in declining turnout was published by UK in a Changing Europe. Tap the link to read.

Ahead of the government's Spending Review on Wednesday, the cost of living still comes top of British people's list of problems - both facing the country and them and their families. At 23% Labour are just ahead of the Conservatives on 22% and Reform UK on 20% on best to deal with the issue.

"Turnout fell at the 2024 election. Across all constituencies, it declined by 7.6%, bringing it to a historic low of less than 65%." ✍️ @jamespren.bsky.social analyses the reasons behind the record low level of voter turn out in the 2024 general election ukandeu.ac.uk/losing-faith...

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 Next week’s spending review must pass the ‘living standards test’, by ensuring key departments can raise incomes and reduce living costs. Since the financial crisis, the rate of Real Household Disposable Income (RHDI) growth has halved. 🧵

Read Better off: A plan to improve living standards in one parliament, supported by @financialfairness.bsky.social 👇 Authored by: @lukeraikes.bsky.social, @andrewharrop.bsky.social, @eloisesacares.bsky.social and @sasjkia.bsky.social fabians.org.uk/publication/...

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 The last parliament saw living standards decline for the first time since records began. Today we show how this government can do better than the last.

Labour leaflet from 1951 c/o @markpackuk.bsky.social

No GP wants this, name another NHS service providing 20% more with 20% less funding, that gets as much flack & as little support This is the problem 1/9 people waiting for hospital treatment 500k more people long term sick 2300 patients per GP - 500 more than 2016 20% less £

Only 1% of disadvantaged students in Hastings meet the higher standards in primary school testing, compared to 10+% across England. Needless to say that education outcomes for disadvantaged pupils in Hastings is generally poor. Early years inequality effects in education never ceases to amaze me.

The Conservatives lost their pro-Brexit coalition partly due to not being trusted to manage migration flows. Their decline sped up after the rise in small boat crossings and the decline in inflation. Labour doing poorly on the immigration issue could lose them leave voters they gained in 2024.

Flows of support for parties since the election, via @markpack open.substack.com/pub/theweeki...

The pro-Brexit base the Conservatives secured in 2019 disintegrated across the last parliament. This shows just how difficult parties are finding to keep their support bases in tact in the UK. Therefore, Labour not retaining its 2024 base is a continuation of a longer term trend.

Voter movements visualised to May 2025

Something I wrote about Labour's electoral strategy in the wake of the 2025 local election result was published by the @thefabians.bsky.social . I argue that Labour need to rethink its approach as the electoral landscape changes. #Reform #Labour #politics #election #UK #stratergy #analysis

People who voted in the the 2019 general election but chose not to participate in 2024 more often disapproved of all the party leaders. This displays a deep sense of apathy within the entire political system amongst those not voting. #voting #trust #politics #rating #party #Labour #Conservative

People who voted in the 2019 UK general election but did not vote in 2024 more often felt No Party performed on the issues they most cared about (the economy and immigration). A lack of faith in government being able to deliver could be decreasing turnout. #Trust #Vote #politics #tunrout #graph

🆕Latest @Moreincommon_ voting intention. Reform hit 30% for the first time in our polling, opening up an 8pt lead also their highest ➡️ REF UK 30% (+2) 🌹 LAB 22% (-3) 🌳 CON 21% (+1) 🔶 LIB DEM 14% (nc) 🌍 GREEN 8% (nc) 🟡 SNP 2% (nc) N = 2,090 | Dates: 16 - 19/5 |Change w 12/5

British politics might partly be becoming more polarised (Fragmented) because the parties have internally decided to vacate the centre ground (with the exception of Labour). #Britishpolitics #politics #Labour #Conservative #Reform #Green #analysis

People who voted in the 2019 general election and did not participate in 2024 disproportionately rented their accommodation. They also were more often in low-income households. Read the full report here: www.capturepolitics.co.uk/tuning-out #apathy #vote #voting #politics #Reform #Labour

This chart is from @britishelectionstudy.com @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social, me and Ed Fieldhouse. You can see that 2024 Reform voters mainly came from the Conservatives or UKIP in 2015. This has been a story on the right for *ten years* now, unless something very different happened last week.

Just a reminder that the people who didn't vote in the last UK general election (but did vote in 2019) tend to fit in the exact demographics Reform will be targeting. Those who voted leave, on lower incomes, working class and not university educated. Turnout increasing could favour #Reform #election

People who voted in the 2019 UK general election who believed their personal finances would worsen in the near future more frequently decided to stop participating in 2024. #election #voting #economy #finances #costofliving #apathy #particiapte

Those who were more dissatisfied with UK democratic outcomes more often stopped voting in the 2024 UK general election. To read the full report into decreasing turnout click the link www.capturepolitics.co.uk/tuning-out #turnout #politics #election #voting #UK #England #BES #Labour #Conservative

This from our post election briefing is way of looking at Reform's rise. Of those who would currently vote Reform just 42% of them voted for the Party last year - attracting 2024 Tory, Labour and non voters. Or looked at another way their vote looks similar to a wing of the 2019 Johnson coalition.

A key reason why turnout declined nearly 8% in the last UK general election was a feeling that no party had the vision and policy programme needed to fix the county's many problems.

Out of those who voted in the UK 2019 general election but did not vote in 2024, there were higher levels of political distrust. There was also higher levels of dissatisfaction with democracy. #election #voting #turnout #politics . The full report located here: www.capturepolitics.co.uk/tuning-out

Come read the article some are calling "the 5th trending political science paper of last week"

The government needs a national plan to make workplaces healthier and more inclusive, writes Fabian Society senior researcher @sasjkia.bsky.social leftfootforward.org/2025/05/to-g...

Identifying Gentrifcation can be tough as it is a hard to measure concept. The blog summarises my attempt the measure gentrification using Hastings and St Leonards as my case study. www.capturepolitics.co.uk/post/gentrif...

Out of those who voted in the UK 2019 general election but did not vote in 2024, there were higher levels of distrust. There was also higher levels of dissatisfaction with democratic outcomes. #election #voting #turnout #politics . The full report located here: www.capturepolitics.co.uk/tuning-out

An infographic summarising why people who voted in the UK 2019 election didn't vote in 2024. As turnout declining is helping reform & damaging Labour's prospects, understanding why people are stopping voting can help explain UK election results, e.g. #Runcorn. www.capturepolitics.co.uk/tuning-out

Canada and Australia fight back against fascism. Maybe the Anglosphere isn't completely beyond redemption.

With a low turnout affecting the big By-election result in Runcorn, it is worth noting out the people who voted in 2019 who are most likely to have disengaged in recent years. See the infographic below. #election #turnout #LE2025 #politics #vote

An illustration of how FPP goes from sandbag to springboard - Reform votes and seats in different councils: Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats

The result of the West of England Mayor election. The winning candidate wins with 25% of a 30% turnout, winning whilst only securing 7.5% of all eligible voters. This is peak Fragmentation and pure electoral craziness and I am enjoying watching it unfold. #Fragmentation #politics #election #le2025

Ahead of the local elections, Nigel Farage continues to top the list of top earning MPs from additional work since the election

As it is local election day I thought I would add my favourite polling station picture. Taken in Hastings last year. #Hastings #election #le2025 #poll

An infographic summarising the results of my research into the causes of political fragmentation (where the electorate has become spread across more parties). See the link for the full report www.capturepolitics.co.uk/fragmenting