In our latest Substack @mrjcrouch.bsky.social looks at Keir Starmer's rock-bottom approval ratings, and how the die was cast within his first couple of months in office. Link below 👇

🚨Latest Opinium Observer poll 🚨 For almost his entire time time in Downing Street, Keir Starmer has been less popular than Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson were at the same point in their premierships.

🚨 New Opinium Observer polling 🚨 Labour’s leader is deep in the red, with Keir Starmer stuck at -41% approval now several weeks in a row. Fewer than 1 in 5 voters approve of the job he’s doing, while while 60% disapprove.

Opinium and @curiauk.bsky.social polling shows that while protections for bats and newts might annoy roughly 1 in 7, a majority of the public currently support these environmental protections. In the same polling we found 30% even think these same protections do not go far enough.

New Opinium Observer poll: 29% say nature of offence & age should be released at arrest. For names, 40% say wait until guilty verdict. On nationality (21% at arrest) & ethnicity (19% at arrest), opinion is split, but pluralities favour info release after a guilty verdict.

New Opinium @theobserveruk.bsky.social #poll Keir Starmer’s approval hits record low (-41%). He is now as unpopular as Boris Johnson after ‘partygate’. Look at the full results for views on a wealth tax, Rachel Reeves, and Palestine Action protests: opinium.com/resource-cen...

🚨New polling with @ObserverUK As Reform celebrates its victories at this week’s local elections, their success can partly be attributed to the reputational damage suffered by the major parties, receiving better ratings on all key attributes apart from being tolerant:

🚨 New polling with @observeruk.bsky.social This week Keir Starmer’s approval shows another small dip from -30% to -33%, going down by 3 points.

Another week, another substack - This time about the hotly-debated issue of National Insurance. Enjoy and thanks to @adamdrummond.bsky.social for all the help!! opinium.substack.com/p/national-i...

🚨 New polling with @observeruk.bsky.social According to voters, this is the worst fiscal statement since the mini-budget, although not quite as bad. 43% thought the Spring Statement was bad, 12% thought it was good and 45% were not sure.

NEW: Read my latest in ConHome on Kemi Badenoch’s Net Zero stance and what it means for the Conservatives. A quick thread: 🧵 conservativehome.com/2025/03/27/j...

We are incredibly excited to be launching our 'Global Entrepreneurship Index' later on today in the House of Commons. Thanks to @chriscurtis94.bsky.social and Danielle Dunfield-Prayero - And congrats to @mrjcrouch.bsky.social for his stellar work! Have a nosey!: www.opinium.com/global-entre...

🚨 New polling with @observeruk.bsky.social After a boost to approvals last week, this week Keir Starmer’s approval drops back down to -29%, going down by 6 points.

This week, Starmer's vocal support for Ukraine boosted his approval, but Farage’s silence kept his stable despite negative ratings on Ukraine. @cwp-weir.bsky.social explores a good week for Starmer and a neutral one for Farage. opinium.substack.com/p/starmer-is...

🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK Against the backdrop of multiple meetings with world leaders over ending the conflict in Ukraine and Russia, Keir Starmer has enjoyed a jump in approval ratings this week. Although still strongly disapproved of overall, he has risen by 10 points.

On the defence spending hike - Popular stuff! Notably, Labour's current strategy of funding this through cuts is wayyyyyyyy more popular with Reform and Conservative voters than it's own 2024 voters.

🚨 New polling with @observeruk.bsky.social Keir Starmer’s net approval has not changed since our last voting intention poll, remaining strongly disapproved of (-33%).

Our latest polling examines public opinion on Labour's potential welfare reforms. Voters are reticent about further welfare cuts, with concerns about benefit reductions and support for those unable to work. Read full insights from @priyaminhas.bsky.social here: opinium.substack.com/p/labours-ba...

A very short 🧵 on US-UK relations: A few weeks ago (the week Trump was sworn in) we tested the crossroads the UK currently finds itself at: stick close to the US or focus on other countries? There was quite a bit more support for looking elsewhere in light of a Trump presidency - 45% vs. 30%.

🚨 New polling with @observeruk.bsky.social Keir Starmer remains close to his record low with -34%, as 56% disapprove and 22% approve.

🚨 New polling with @observeruk.bsky.social Keir Starmer’s net approval has dipped again to a record low of -35%. His approval is down by 2 points from our last poll.

This week, @cwp-weir.bsky.social asks what might be next for Rachel Reeves. With a slow-moving economy, is the chancellor falling by staying still? open.substack.com/pub/opinium/...

🚨New polling with @observeruk.bsky.social Keir Starmer starts of 2025 with a steady net approval rating of -33% (-1, compared to our last poll).

Belated link to our final poll of 2024! PM Keir Starmer holds steady at -32% approval and Kemi Badenoch drops 6 points to -12%, whilst the public's economic expectations remain pessimistic at best. Dive into the full results and tables here: t.co/MEW4TKkh7w

As the Government unveils it's plans to employment reform, @adamdrummond.bsky.social looks at the public's surprisingly nuanced views on welfare. Read on Substack: open.substack.com/pub/opinium/... Or on our website:

New polling with @theguardian.com / The Observer Keir Starmer has seen an 8 point drop in his net approval rating after a significant uptick in the number disapproving of his performance. 22% approve of his performance vs. 54% who disapprove. This gives Starmer a net rating of -32%.

Ahead of the assisted dying bill's Commons vote this week, @mrjcrouch.bsky.social teases out the nuance in the debate, using a large sample and MRP. Read here: opinium.substack.com/p/will-publi...

Kemi Badenoch’s first days as Conservative leader have been a mixed bag. Lukewarm approval ratings, diverted media attention, and what it’ll take for her to look like a PM in waiting. @mrjcrouch.bsky.social breaks it down. opinium.substack.com/p/kemi-baden...

🚨 New polling with @theguardian.com / The Observer Keir Starmer’s net approval ratings are -24%, unchanged from two weeks ago.

@opiniumresearch.bsky.social poll in the run-up to Badenoch's victory: A clear plurality of people (43% v 28%) — inc a third of 2024 Tory voters — don't expect the party's new leader to last until the next general election Write-up by @zoecrowther.bsky.social www.politicshome.com/news/article...

🚨 New polling with @ObserverUK   Following the budget, the Keir Starmer’s approval rating is up 7 points, to -24% (26% approve, 50% disapprove).

Ahead of this week's budget, @cwp-weir.bsky.social shows where Labour is losing key ground on economic matters. However, there is still optimism on the UK economy amongst 2024 Labour voters. Can Labour keep, or even exploit, that faith going forward? opinium.substack.com/p/labour-los...

Good morning! As a fun development, we have added our "most important issues" tracker to our interactive political dashboard. Here you can see which issues were most important, and pinpoint it by exact dates. Check it out here!: www.opinium.com/resource-cen...

Keir Starmer’s net approval ratings are -31%, down three points from two weeks ago where it sat at -29%. It still contrasts heavily to his first approval rating as prime minister: +19%.

🚨 LATEST Opinium Research / Observer poll Keir Starmer’s net approval ratings are -29%, almost the same as -30% a week ago. It still contrasts heavily to his first approval rating as prime minister: +19%.

🚨LATEST Opinium / Observer poll Keir Starmer’s net approval ratings are -30%, down 17 points from -13 at a fortnight ago and down by 49 points from +19% in his first approval rating as prime minister. This is, again, Starmer’s lowest ever score by some distance.

🚨LATEST Opinium/Observer poll🚨 On the eve of the first Labour Party Conference since they came into power, Keir Starmer’s approval rating is at its lowest ever (-26%), down by 45 points from his first approval rating as prime minister (+19%).

🚨 New polling with The Observer Keir Starmer’s net approval ratings are -13%, down 6 points from -7 at a fortnight ago and down a hefty 32 points from +19% in his first approval rating as prime minister.

NOW - Here's where it gets interesting. Gen Pop, Labour and Con followed the same strokes here with a bit of variation. Cons less engaged in social media, etc, but everyone seeing mostly opposed content Apart from Reform voters. They are different. A plurality either saw supportive or mixed posts

🚨 New polling with The Observer 🚨 This week’s omits Voting Intention again, as we continue to assess our weighting. Starmer’s net approval ratings are -7%, down 10 points from +3 at the beginning of August and down a hefty 26 points from +19% in his first approval rating as PM.

Hello BlueSkyers! We are very excited to announce that we are going to be posting our Voting Intention results here, as well as Twitter/X. As ever, we can't wait to see your responses to the work we're doing. Thanks for joining us!