Unfreezing LHA should be the first thing on the list for Labour’s next budget

It’s okay for the Tories/Times/Telegraph to pretend that taxes are up “because of welfare”. That’s politics. But if you care about policy you need to understand that is a long way from the truth - and wrestle with the consequences

Had lost touch with quite how large balances in UK cash ISAs have grown.

A chunky part of the productivity puzzle brought to life here - both supply and demand for business lending have been falling for years - the huge emergency lending during the pandemic now just looks like a bump in the road to ever lower lending giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Two fantastic former @thefabians.bsky.social staff members appointed to the EHRC board @sundersays.bsky.social @jemimaolchawski.bsky.social

Salary sacrifice pensions: who will the reforms affect? Really looking forward to speaking at this online @theifs.bsky.social event on Wednesday. I'll be reacting to great new IFS research and sharing @publicfirst.bsky.social poll results on the government's plan. ifs.org.uk/events/salar...

Another example of Labour - promising to do something - doing it - not telling people they’ve done it

“Local authorities are looking to use low-use golf courses as a way of building great places to live” On @listentotimesradio.bsky.social, @bencooper1995.bsky.social explains that making it easier to build on golf courses could open up accessible green spaces for thousands of people.

ONS shows Labour cut the deficit by 0.9% of GDP in 25/26 But almost no ministerial comms, to celebrate and claim credit When this government makes hard choices and delivers, it never tells anyone!!! www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gove...

Looming white collar job cull… in three headlines?

Ready or not? The state pension age starts to rise today Here’s what it means for today’s 60-somethings cradle2grave.substack.com/p/ready-or-not

Will new policies create joined-up neighbourhood health and care services in England? Maybe. But we’re still running health and care in silos My substack post (reacting to the DHSC plan for neighbourhood health) cradle2grave.substack.com/p/good-neigh...

New stats: - Overall poverty up - Child poverty up - Working-age adult poverty up - Pensioner poverty up Quite small rises (not statistically significant) but this is what Labour inherited and must now address (relative, AHC) www.gov.uk/government/c...

NEW POST 3 sobering facts about pension saving today: - ONE THIRD of people in work aren’t saving into a pension at all - HALF of 25-54s are not on track for an adequate retirement income - Typical pension savings for workers at 50 are just £27,000 cradle2grave.substack.com/p/pension-pain

1. ONE THIRD of people in work aren't saving into a pension 2. HALF of workers aged 25 to 54 are not on track for an adequate retirement income* 3. A worker around the age of 50 typically has just £27k in their pension* * excludes those with DB pensions 🧵 group.legalandgeneral.com/en/about-us/...

What is the Blair inner dialogue that leads him to say these things? Does he really think it advances causes he cares for or his own personal standing? Or is it an itch he just can’t help scratch?

From FT comments

If I had worked in the Number 10 that had cut childcare bills in half or more for nearly all families, I might not add “the cost of childcare” onto the list of things hitting middle earners.

This is so telling about Labour factionalism and the mindset of (some of) the ‘serious’ people in and around the party establishment

Labour needs to be a catch-all party while the electorate is fracturing and be led by someone who can confidently articulate finesse. Mission impossible?

This defeat is a big deal and LAB needs to think hard about strategy and positioning. But there is a risk of over-simplifying. The next GE will be won in suburbs and small cities that are neither Red Wall nor inner city. LAB needs to retain pre-24 Tory voters AND win back its Green-tempted core

Interesting trail from Ian Cheshire of the Pensions Commission at @standardlifeuk.bsky.social event The commission will publish modelling based on BOTH the state pension with a triple lock AND a less generous future state pension (even though triple lock not formally in scope)

Does this change everything or nothing? - target voters? - policy? - party management? - government coordination? - story telling? - why Keir wants to be PM?

Realistically the best case for Starmer (and I'm not saying this is likely) is "Theresa May after Hill and Timothy resigned": complete change in strategy that allows for better governance setting up better conditions for his successor in the next GE

A good example of how strangely unpolitical this government is at times. The Economist is fretting that trade union laws have been tilted (sharply!) back towards strengthening unions. But is the government making an argument around this to progressive voters? No. economist.com/britain/2026...

What is the role of Adult Social Care in building a Neighbourhood Health Service? I had the pleasure of working out the answer, working with the brilliant Sir David Pearson, and writing this statement published today by Skills for Care and partners www.linkedin.com/posts/andrew...

Fascinating (and worrying) to see a false meme derived from overseas data & social media culture get so much traction… never mind the UK evidence

🧵 on new analysis w/ @resolutionfoundation.org on why if Universal Credit is to be improved it is time to ‘listen and learn’ to experts [email protected] For more on why govts should move from a ‘test and learn’ to a ‘listen and learn’ approach 📚 academic.oup.com/ooec/article...

NEW POST When I went freelance in 2024, I didn’t think at all about insuring my new business. It turns out I was not alone. cradle2grave.substack.com/p/small-busi...

Amazing that journalists need to have this explained.

The Parliament Act is not ‘archaic’. The constant possibility of using it is what maintains the supremacy of the Commons, and means the Lords almost always give way. www.theguardian.com/society/2026...

Let’s not go down the UBI rabbit hole again… Absolutely, tax AI disrupters’ profits, but spend it on Universal Credit (and the government’s proposed new unemployment insurance). This actually protects jobless people. Don’t waste a second more talking about UBI giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Post war western Europe is simply the best society that this species has ever managed to create. Never forget it. Defend it for all we're worth.

On Alan Milburn's ignorant and unproductive comments about personal independence payment, SEND and their impact on young people not in employment, education or training Anxious Alan makingrightsmakesense.wordpress.com/2026/01/25/a...

“giving up Chagos was stupid and this proves you should therefore give up Greenland”

Excellent review of the pressure facing Europe’s state pensions The UK is better placed than many: brely any politics about our next rise to pension age in April But we still need to debate replacing the triple lock with a system pegged to % of average earnings giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

🚨 10 DAYS TO GO 🚨 The countdown is on for New Year Conference 2026: Renewing Britain

It is funny to think that once upon a time people believed things that were printed in The Times.

Samuel Pepys was a Conservative MP… in the 1660s!?? www.thetimes.com/article/4597...

Thoughtful post that goes to the heart of how to move towards a national care service in the context of wide local variations in spending and need. This is not straightforward.

NEW POST: Figures out last week tell us just how much local care expenditure in England deviates from underlying spending pressures. - On average, areas with lower needs spend ‘too much’ and areas with higher needs spend ‘too little’. 1/2 cradle2grave.substack.com/p/ending-the...

Jeffrey Epstein & David Walliams leading all the bulletins but Kemi Badenoch knows that only men from ‘different cultures’ pose a threat to women.

This Bill will be transformative. But there is more that we could do to strengthen rights at work in the coming years. At @thefabians.bsky.social, we are exploring the next steps in the employment rights agenda. Get in touch with @lukeraikes.bsky.social if you want to find out more.

Thanks FT 🤷🏼‍♂️

This afternoon there was a stabbing on the Westbourne estate in Islington.

This is 100% wrong Limiting pension salary sacrifice for high earners in the private sector will hit men far more than women Critics may not like the reform, but it equalises the tax benefits of pension saving for men/women, rich/poor giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

And btw @resolutionfoundation.org correctly predicted that the economy might prove more tax rich. Was CX misleading for not confirming their estimates?? As I said on Times Radio, lots of sensible people now think the whole pantomime of how Budgets are done needs to change. 4/4

Consternation on our family group chat at the death of Zipcar… How we’ve made life in London work without owning a car for the past 2 decades 😢 😮 www.theguardian.com/business/202...

There’s a wider thing. Taxes are up since pre-pandemic levels. Why? The Tories will claim its welfare (which did rise as % gdp on their watch but is basically flat under us).