Labour's share of the vote halved in just over 18 months and between them Labour, Lib Dems and Conservatives managed only 29.1% in Gorton and Denton. By-elections are unusual in many ways, but that is a terrible performance from the three parties who have been in government in anyone's lifetime.

Has Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor been treated fairly? Before today's announcement, fewer than one in six British adults believed so. Two thirds believed he had been treated too softly, including half of British adults who believe he has been treated far too softly. #RoyalFamily #Epstein

As the saying goes.

BBC Election Night programmes are particularly good for finding these people and using them as vox pops on screen. 2015 had the voter in who had voted Lib Dem in 2010 but could never support them again because they went into coalition with the Conservatives. In 2015 he voted Conservative.

What polling on leadership rivals tends to measure is public opinion on who they are NOT rather than who they ARE. I will be on Times Radio at 2.30pm to discuss this and a roundup of the rest of the polls with @alexisconran.com.

This me be a hot take, but it feels like a whole lot of attention is paid to what Trump is saying today, all predicated on the assumption that it will, in ANY way, have an impact on what he says and does tomorrow or the day after or at any stage in the future.

I think there is a really interesting (to me at least) thought experiment about how far you would go if you were Reform/Farage when it cames to accepting defectors into the fold. Truss is apparently out, but what about Johnson? Or May? Or Cameron? Or Cummings? (Endorsements quite separate of course)

Nearly three quarters of British adults oppose the US using military action to take Greenland. If it happens, nearly three in ten think troops should be sent to defend Greenland. One in twenty thinks they should be sent to help the US. Half think Britain should not send troops.

Completely gratuitous female softcore nudity in mainstream Hollywood films. As discussed at length this week on @warmovietheatre.bsky.social, with reference to Under Siege (and Cannibal Women in the Avocado Jungle of Death).

As the only person Rob and Duncan know who has seen both "Under Siege" and it's spiritual successor "Chasers", I was invited back on the War Movie Theatre podcast to discuss why I think the former is a remake of Pretty Woman for teenage boys. Wherever you get your podcasts....

Membership numbers are vanity. Voting numbers are sanity.

Despite the party's continued strong performance in the polls, I am still surprised Reform have chosen Muswell Hill as the location for their new pilates studio.

Though the Budget always has the potential to be a turning point in public opinion, they rarely are. If, however, the main story this year turns out to be the leaks that may speak to the competence of the government and add to their difficulty.

Is it FINALLY time to replace the Budget speech with a press release that coincides with the markers opening? Stand outside 11 Downing Street holding the press release printed on red paper if you have to.

Your regular reminder that a significant change in power is not necessarily the same as a significant change in public opinion.

It is tempting to over-analyse the result in Caerphilly, but one thing it does demonstrate is the potential power of tactical voting. That is something very difficult for polling to take account of at any stage, but particularly more than three years out from a general election.

I say this not as any sort of political point, but simply because I think accuracy is important. I have visited all over Britain, been fortunate to travel all over the world and have worked in a number of countries across the Middle East. I have never seen anyone wearing a burqua. Not once.

Apropos of nothing, just a quick reminder on the popularity of policies.....

Which politicians can the British public actually name? In honour of party conference season Deltapoll has produced a league table of leading political figures - and at the top comes Keir Starmer. More than three quarters could correctly name him.

An interesting historical counter factual to consider is what would have happened if Tony Blair, while riding high in the polls during his first term, had forced through a national ID card scheme in the late 1990s?

There are figures for “detected” arrivals (ie the massive majority of small boats), but none for undetected. Even if we assume that only half of such arrivals are detected, they would still be less than 10% of the total. It is, in fact, a non-problem.

Nearly half of British adults believe a majority of immigrants to this country in the last year came here illegally. Just under a third (32%) believe the majority came here legally and a further one in five (20%) don't know.

I would just like to make it clear that if you do have extensive experience in coding SPSS Syntax - and particularly SPSS Script - over here at Deltapoll, I am always interested in hearing from you. Even if it's just to cheerfully reminisce.

Just a reminder, in case it was needed, that there is a WORLD OF DIFFERENCE between a theoretical new party gaining X% share of the vote in a hypothetical poll and it actually going on to achieve that level of support. And I say that as the official pollster for Change UK.

RIP Robert Redford. And if you haven't seen 'Three Days of the Condor', it takes an approach to this question which has held up . . . . . er . . . . less well.

🚨 New working paper alert 🚨 Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️ In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...

Big fan of Reddit's political analysis in the context of football broadcasting.

BREAKING: No lanyard sponsor for this year's Conservative Party Conference.

Disappointed that the time I nearly ran him over after he walked into the road without looking is not listed. www.theguardian.com/film/2025/au...

Back in the pre-Windows 95 days, and after getting Trumpet Winsock (finally) configured correctly, hearing this sound felt like you were opening a portal to the future.

What did Keir Starmer’s dad do for work? Although it was frequently mentioned (some suggested to the point of parody) during the election campaign, Deltapoll found fewer than one in five British adults could correctly identify that the Prime Minister’s father was a tool maker.

A happiest of birthdays to @lukemcgee.bsky.social and Terry Wogan. Let's see which one of us makes it into Playbook this year.

think this is sort of interesting as actually.....no you probably didn't need to do "more research" into it? you just had to trust the state and local authorities to know better than you when it came to vaccinating your child? not good that the internet has killed faith in institutions!

Immigrants. They get the job done.

Fewer than a third of British adults say that Donald Trump should be invited to address the Houses of Parliament during the US President's state visit to the UK. This compares to more than half (56%) who believe he should not be invited.

Missed this the first time around, but really enjoyed it. With bonus points for references to Bakshi.

Your regular reminder that headlines saying "Poll shows this specific policy will cost this party this number of seats at the next election" have an appalling track record when compared to reality. As has been seen time and again, voting is far, far more complicated than that.

Should Donald Trump have been invited to address the Houses of Parliament during his state visit? We have an exclusive from Deltapoll on what this British public think in @theipaper. inews.co.uk/news/politic...

It might be fun to ask basically anyone who is not English if the English are allowed to mention that England won the world cup.

Good news! I have been discussing Keir Starmer and Labour’s first year in Downing Street, on TWO podcasts: Chopper’s Political Podcast: shows.acast.com/choppers-pol... Or (more realistically and) Independent Thinking with @bronwenmaddox.bsky.social x: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/o...

In public opinion terms, most people don't watch PMQs and most people could not pick Rachel Reeves out of a line up. Instead, attitudes to her crying are likely to be driven largely by media coverage and partisan cues. The 'human' aspect will probably be far less important.

The best thing to come out of La Rochelle since Tricolore. 308 minute original uncut version FTW.

Compliance #IYKYK

Do the American public support the US bombing Iran? While interesting as a comparison, previously reported public opposition is now largely irrelevant. Many Trump supporters, both in the general public and media, will change their mind and fall right in line.

This is a beautiful piece of writing.

In such instances I am always intrigued by the motivations of those bringing the case. Did they really think they could win? Were the persuaded they could win by their lawyers? Or did they pursue the case against legal advice? Did they expect to lose but wished to highlight the issue anyway?

DOGE for the UK? Keeping taxes and government spending at the same level as now is the most popular option among the British public, while 34% say they should both be increased. Only 14% favour reducing taxes and spending.

Ahead of the government's Spending Review on Wednesday, the cost of living still comes top of British people's list of problems - both facing the country and them and their families. At 23% Labour are just ahead of the Conservatives on 22% and Reform UK on 20% on best to deal with the issue.

I asked ChatGPT to generate images of typical supporters of different UK political parties. I will be repeating this exercise, using the same prompt, at regular intervals / when I remember, to see how things change - if at all. I guess this is 1/? (Turns out only some of them can correctly spell)