Should Andy Burnham call a new general election if he does become the new Prime Minister? Nearly two thirds (63%) of Brits think so, including more than half (56%) of those who voted Labour at the last election.

If England do make the final, who gets to go?

Keir Starmer himself demonstrated that you probably do not want to start as a new Prime Minister in July. A combination of staff (and school) holidays, the parliamentary recess and then conference season mean the first 100 days can pass extremely quickly.

While this may well be true. I can certainly see a scenario where the Conservatives under Badenoch lose a large number of seats to Reform at the next election. She resigns and her successor then does some form of coalition deal with Farage.

'The phoney war of the Labour leadership election is now over, and full battle, I'm sure, will commence.' @joetwyman.bsky.social explains the significance of Andy Burnham's 'very strong' electoral performance in Makerfield.

Politics is so often about momentum and the manner of Andy Burnham's victory clearly demonstrates the momentum is with him. But as we have seen over the last two years, delivering on potential is another matter entirely. Regardless, the Phoney War of the Labour leadership contest is now over.

Should social media be banned for under 16s? Two thirds of British adults support the idea in principle, but that support could well change as details on how the ban will actually work (or not!) become clear.

As broadcasting of the World Cup begins, I am reminded that at international football competitions there are only two emotions for the spectators in the crowd: 1) Total joy - to be demonstrated by shots of attractive young women. 2) Utter heartbreak - to be demonstrated by shots of crying children.

How important is defence as an issue for the general public? 12% place it in their top three most important issues facing the country, making it a third tier issue. Instead, for many voters, Healey's resignation will reinforce existing concerns around government priorities and competence.

It really feels like we have now reached a "No-Sided Ceasefire".

I tell you what, I am not sure that those on the right in America have always been massively enthusiastic about the World Cup.

In Denton and Gorton "Get Starmer Out" was the key slogan of Reform's (unsuccessful) campaign. In Makerfield, however, if you really want to get Starmer out, voting for Burnham is the way to do that. But "Get Starmer Out Sooner" doesn't really strike me as the kind of slogan Labour will go for.

'How much for broadband and TV?' '£34 a month for the broadband and TV plus £17.99 a month for the telephone line.' 'I don't want the telephone line. Can I get it without?' 'Yes. Certainly.' 'How much is that? Just for broadband and TV?' '£51.99 a month.' 'That's the same price.' 'No it isn't.'

Boris Johnson stayed as Mayor of London for just over a year after rejoining the House of Commons as a London MP. Does Andy Burnham have to give up being Mayor of Manchester? (Serious question)

What a mistake-a to Maker-field?

What impact will a change of leader have on the polls? The danger is it will be like a set of inflatables at children's party with a puncture: Any bounce will be very modest and short-lived, leaving some crying in disappointment, while to others the problems were clear from the start.

Ed Davey standing down for Andy Burnham really would be the ultimate political stunt.

You can ask survey respondents for their views of Burnham, Rayner and Streeting but the only valid conclusion to draw from the findings is that the average person in the street (and the 50% of people less engaged) do not currently know much about any of them at all.

The Keeper (2018) is a perfectly fine film about this, but not nearly as great as it could be, given the real story. And I would say it definitely counts as a war movie @warmovietheatre.com. Plus the film's focus on forgiveness would have (unusually) gone down with my POW grandfather.

What next for Keir Starmer and the Labour government? I will be discussing the aftermath of last Thursday's elections at an @OVIDHealth event on Thursday morning (8.30 - 10:30) in central London. If you would like to come along you can register here: bit.ly/PatientsParl...

First the good name of the FIFA Peace Prize is sullied and now this. www.espn.com/soccer/story...

Remember today really is World Donkey Day. Please note this is not a party-political comment.

If you are Labour and losing to Reform AND Greens (plus also SNP, Plaid, Conservative and Lib Dems etc) then a pivot or some other ideological repositioning is not going to solve your problems. Instead you need to focus on delivery and hope that you can turn around perceptions.

'Andy Burnham is the most popular - that's kind of like saying he's the tallest of Snow White's housemates.' The potential contenders for Labour leadership are 'not very well known', @joetwyman.bsky.social tells @shelaghfogarty.bsky.social.

When I was at university we called this "revision". BBC News - www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... Worcester football fan completes 50-hour gaming challenge - BBC News

That's politics for you.

Labour's share of the vote halved in just over 18 months and between them Labour, Lib Dems and Conservatives managed only 29.1% in Gorton and Denton. By-elections are unusual in many ways, but that is a terrible performance from the three parties who have been in government in anyone's lifetime.

Has Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor been treated fairly? Before today's announcement, fewer than one in six British adults believed so. Two thirds believed he had been treated too softly, including half of British adults who believe he has been treated far too softly. #RoyalFamily #Epstein

As the saying goes.

BBC Election Night programmes are particularly good for finding these people and using them as vox pops on screen. 2015 had the voter in who had voted Lib Dem in 2010 but could never support them again because they went into coalition with the Conservatives. In 2015 he voted Conservative.

What polling on leadership rivals tends to measure is public opinion on who they are NOT rather than who they ARE. I will be on Times Radio at 2.30pm to discuss this and a roundup of the rest of the polls with @alexisconran.com.

This me be a hot take, but it feels like a whole lot of attention is paid to what Trump is saying today, all predicated on the assumption that it will, in ANY way, have an impact on what he says and does tomorrow or the day after or at any stage in the future.

I think there is a really interesting (to me at least) thought experiment about how far you would go if you were Reform/Farage when it cames to accepting defectors into the fold. Truss is apparently out, but what about Johnson? Or May? Or Cameron? Or Cummings? (Endorsements quite separate of course)

Nearly three quarters of British adults oppose the US using military action to take Greenland. If it happens, nearly three in ten think troops should be sent to defend Greenland. One in twenty thinks they should be sent to help the US. Half think Britain should not send troops.

Completely gratuitous female softcore nudity in mainstream Hollywood films. As discussed at length this week on @warmovietheatre.bsky.social, with reference to Under Siege (and Cannibal Women in the Avocado Jungle of Death).

As the only person Rob and Duncan know who has seen both "Under Siege" and it's spiritual successor "Chasers", I was invited back on the War Movie Theatre podcast to discuss why I think the former is a remake of Pretty Woman for teenage boys. Wherever you get your podcasts....

Membership numbers are vanity. Voting numbers are sanity.

Despite the party's continued strong performance in the polls, I am still surprised Reform have chosen Muswell Hill as the location for their new pilates studio.

Though the Budget always has the potential to be a turning point in public opinion, they rarely are. If, however, the main story this year turns out to be the leaks that may speak to the competence of the government and add to their difficulty.

Is it FINALLY time to replace the Budget speech with a press release that coincides with the markers opening? Stand outside 11 Downing Street holding the press release printed on red paper if you have to.

Your regular reminder that a significant change in power is not necessarily the same as a significant change in public opinion.

It is tempting to over-analyse the result in Caerphilly, but one thing it does demonstrate is the potential power of tactical voting. That is something very difficult for polling to take account of at any stage, but particularly more than three years out from a general election.

I say this not as any sort of political point, but simply because I think accuracy is important. I have visited all over Britain, been fortunate to travel all over the world and have worked in a number of countries across the Middle East. I have never seen anyone wearing a burqua. Not once.

Apropos of nothing, just a quick reminder on the popularity of policies.....

Which politicians can the British public actually name? In honour of party conference season Deltapoll has produced a league table of leading political figures - and at the top comes Keir Starmer. More than three quarters could correctly name him.

An interesting historical counter factual to consider is what would have happened if Tony Blair, while riding high in the polls during his first term, had forced through a national ID card scheme in the late 1990s?

There are figures for “detected” arrivals (ie the massive majority of small boats), but none for undetected. Even if we assume that only half of such arrivals are detected, they would still be less than 10% of the total. It is, in fact, a non-problem.

Nearly half of British adults believe a majority of immigrants to this country in the last year came here illegally. Just under a third (32%) believe the majority came here legally and a further one in five (20%) don't know.

I would just like to make it clear that if you do have extensive experience in coding SPSS Syntax - and particularly SPSS Script - over here at Deltapoll, I am always interested in hearing from you. Even if it's just to cheerfully reminisce.

Just a reminder, in case it was needed, that there is a WORLD OF DIFFERENCE between a theoretical new party gaining X% share of the vote in a hypothetical poll and it actually going on to achieve that level of support. And I say that as the official pollster for Change UK.