Your regular reminder that a significant change in power is not necessarily the same as a significant change in public opinion.

It is tempting to over-analyse the result in Caerphilly, but one thing it does demonstrate is the potential power of tactical voting. That is something very difficult for polling to take account of at any stage, but particularly more than three years out from a general election.

I say this not as any sort of political point, but simply because I think accuracy is important. I have visited all over Britain, been fortunate to travel all over the world and have worked in a number of countries across the Middle East. I have never seen anyone wearing a burqua. Not once.

Apropos of nothing, just a quick reminder on the popularity of policies.....

Which politicians can the British public actually name? In honour of party conference season Deltapoll has produced a league table of leading political figures - and at the top comes Keir Starmer. More than three quarters could correctly name him.

An interesting historical counter factual to consider is what would have happened if Tony Blair, while riding high in the polls during his first term, had forced through a national ID card scheme in the late 1990s?

There are figures for “detected” arrivals (ie the massive majority of small boats), but none for undetected. Even if we assume that only half of such arrivals are detected, they would still be less than 10% of the total. It is, in fact, a non-problem.

Nearly half of British adults believe a majority of immigrants to this country in the last year came here illegally. Just under a third (32%) believe the majority came here legally and a further one in five (20%) don't know.

I would just like to make it clear that if you do have extensive experience in coding SPSS Syntax - and particularly SPSS Script - over here at Deltapoll, I am always interested in hearing from you. Even if it's just to cheerfully reminisce.

Just a reminder, in case it was needed, that there is a WORLD OF DIFFERENCE between a theoretical new party gaining X% share of the vote in a hypothetical poll and it actually going on to achieve that level of support. And I say that as the official pollster for Change UK.

RIP Robert Redford. And if you haven't seen 'Three Days of the Condor', it takes an approach to this question which has held up . . . . . er . . . . less well.

🚨 New working paper alert 🚨 Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️ In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...

Big fan of Reddit's political analysis in the context of football broadcasting.

BREAKING: No lanyard sponsor for this year's Conservative Party Conference.

Disappointed that the time I nearly ran him over after he walked into the road without looking is not listed. www.theguardian.com/film/2025/au...

Back in the pre-Windows 95 days, and after getting Trumpet Winsock (finally) configured correctly, hearing this sound felt like you were opening a portal to the future.

What did Keir Starmer’s dad do for work? Although it was frequently mentioned (some suggested to the point of parody) during the election campaign, Deltapoll found fewer than one in five British adults could correctly identify that the Prime Minister’s father was a tool maker.

A happiest of birthdays to @lukemcgee.bsky.social and Terry Wogan. Let's see which one of us makes it into Playbook this year.

think this is sort of interesting as actually.....no you probably didn't need to do "more research" into it? you just had to trust the state and local authorities to know better than you when it came to vaccinating your child? not good that the internet has killed faith in institutions!

Immigrants. They get the job done.

Fewer than a third of British adults say that Donald Trump should be invited to address the Houses of Parliament during the US President's state visit to the UK. This compares to more than half (56%) who believe he should not be invited.

Missed this the first time around, but really enjoyed it. With bonus points for references to Bakshi.

Your regular reminder that headlines saying "Poll shows this specific policy will cost this party this number of seats at the next election" have an appalling track record when compared to reality. As has been seen time and again, voting is far, far more complicated than that.

Should Donald Trump have been invited to address the Houses of Parliament during his state visit? We have an exclusive from Deltapoll on what this British public think in @theipaper. inews.co.uk/news/politic...

It might be fun to ask basically anyone who is not English if the English are allowed to mention that England won the world cup.

Good news! I have been discussing Keir Starmer and Labour’s first year in Downing Street, on TWO podcasts: Chopper’s Political Podcast: shows.acast.com/choppers-pol... Or (more realistically and) Independent Thinking with @bronwenmaddox.bsky.social x: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/o...

In public opinion terms, most people don't watch PMQs and most people could not pick Rachel Reeves out of a line up. Instead, attitudes to her crying are likely to be driven largely by media coverage and partisan cues. The 'human' aspect will probably be far less important.

The best thing to come out of La Rochelle since Tricolore. 308 minute original uncut version FTW.

Compliance #IYKYK

Do the American public support the US bombing Iran? While interesting as a comparison, previously reported public opposition is now largely irrelevant. Many Trump supporters, both in the general public and media, will change their mind and fall right in line.

This is a beautiful piece of writing.

In such instances I am always intrigued by the motivations of those bringing the case. Did they really think they could win? Were the persuaded they could win by their lawyers? Or did they pursue the case against legal advice? Did they expect to lose but wished to highlight the issue anyway?

DOGE for the UK? Keeping taxes and government spending at the same level as now is the most popular option among the British public, while 34% say they should both be increased. Only 14% favour reducing taxes and spending.

Ahead of the government's Spending Review on Wednesday, the cost of living still comes top of British people's list of problems - both facing the country and them and their families. At 23% Labour are just ahead of the Conservatives on 22% and Reform UK on 20% on best to deal with the issue.

I asked ChatGPT to generate images of typical supporters of different UK political parties. I will be repeating this exercise, using the same prompt, at regular intervals / when I remember, to see how things change - if at all. I guess this is 1/? (Turns out only some of them can correctly spell)

Good to see Brexit hasn't stopped Florence Pugh's older sister representing Denmark. #Eurovision

The BSL during Finland was sensational #Eurovision

Italy's inclusion of subtitles is an unexpected development. Do other countries just not bother? And did Italy really think it would help? #Eurovision

Good to see the Lithuanian lead singer stealing my haircut from 1992. #Eurovision

Tomorrow there's a big White Paper on immigration (www.gov.uk/government/n...). Whatever else it does, it's bound to refuel Labour’s internal debate about net migration -- a debate full of assumptions about public opinion. Strap in for a long thread about a survey testing some of those assumptions.

PREPARE TO BE SHOCKED! In what may be the most foolhardy act the podcast has ever committed, we commissioned @joetwyman.bsky.social at Deltapoll to ask the nation for its favourite WW2 films. The results... 🧵

Where is Where Eagles Dare? The podcast @warmovietheatre.bsky.social has commissioned a poll of the nation’s favourite WW2 films And the results show that we want reality, not Richard Burton on a cable car But which film came top? www.thetimes.com/article/a4bc...

As the world celebrates the 80th anniversary of VE Day, just over one in ten British adults (11%) says we think about World War II too much. This compares to more than a quarter (26%) who say we think about it too little, while more than half (54%) say we think about it the right amount.

Reform UK have been the big success story in the polls since the election. I spoke to @rmcunliffe.bsky.social for her piece about what that might mean for the mayoral contest in Greater Lincolnshire. www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

COMING THIS THURSDAY! We're joined by @joetwyman.bsky.social to watch 1984's Red Dawn! Or, as Rob thinks of it, "Dirty Dancing: the WW3 Years"

Delighted that @warmovietheatre.bsky.social has returned. And I am pleased to announce that I will be making an appearance in the coming weeks (possibly even more than once) playing the role of the guest few people have heard of, covering the films few people have seen. Don't forget to subscribe.

"Various people have been shot in the foot in the past and many people will be shot in the foot in the future, so the fact I shot myself in the foot is no different and not a reflection on me." - Various people who should know better

Can't help thinking that making more people British was PRECISELY why a great many of our ancestors died.

As someone who actually conducted polling in a war zone for nearly 3 years (Iraq 07-10), I can say with some authority that basing major decisions about Ukraine on approval rating data would be ABSOLUTELY CRAZY - even if the approval numbers were low, which they appear not to be.