John Kastellec
@jkastellec.bsky.social
đ€ 6042
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đ 160
Professor of Politics at Princeton University @Princeton .
http://www.makingthesupremecourt.com
pinned post!
Happy to announce that
@anthonytaboni.bsky.social
and I have created a new dataset of the Supreme Court's Shadow Docket actions from 1993-2025. A paper describing the data and a website with the data and documentation are here:
www.shadowdocketdata.com/s/kastellec_...
www.shadowdocketdata.com
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Supreme Court Shadow Docket Database
https://www.shadowdocketdata.com/
5 months ago
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Emily Flitter
4 days ago
As a former member of NYTâs finance team & the co-author of this story exposing the relationship between Epstein & Bill Gates as well as one on Epstein & JPMorgan, I am really frustrated to see people claiming that NYT sat on publishable info about Trump and Epstein đ§”
www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/b...
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Bill Gates Met With Jeffrey Epstein Many Times, Despite His Past (Published 2019)
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/business/jeffrey-epstein-bill-gates.html?unlocked_article_code=1.008.Z96F.2wbb8p2tcBur&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
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Andrew Gelman et al.
4 days ago
The value of close reading: Larry Summers edition
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/13/t...
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The value of close reading: Larry Summers edition | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/13/the-value-of-close-reading-larry-summers-edition/
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Andrew Gelman et al.
4 days ago
Noted economist likes to talk about demographics but he doesnât know the actual facts.
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/12/n...
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Noted economist likes to talk about demographics but he doesnât know the actual facts. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/12/noted-economist-likes-to-talk-about-demographics-but-he-doesnt-know-the-actual-facts/
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Josh Huder
6 days ago
Matt makes a critical point. The pain of the shutdown was seriously ramping up while pressure on Republicans had yet to really build. They were losing in polls but not by a margin that would cause them to abandon Trump or Thune. Very skeptical Dems would have won much more by holding out longer.
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Jamal Greene
6 days ago
This is Chris Rock's "in-case-shit" bit on insurance, except from a U.S. senator who is a doctor.
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Alex Garlick
7 days ago
Congressional Democrats are discovering the lessons that Republicans learned by launching shutdowns as the minority, they don't end when the governing party capitulates on policy, eventually the hold outs just give up.
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Daniel Schuman
7 days ago
Some thoughts on the CR/minibus. 1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins. Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.
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Guy Grossman
7 days ago
I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now. - Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season. - But, just as important...
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E.J. Fagan
7 days ago
I see a lot of bad incentives for Democrats to be outraged tonight. Itâs a short term CR. Dems have until the end of the year to get the health care subsidies. They can shut it down again if they have to. Theyâre playing with fire if they hold out too long. Planes will crash.
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Jeff Lazarus
9 days ago
We're closing on two months of one person single-handedly shuttering Congress. This is beyond absurd. No one should be able to do this.
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Josh Chafetz
12 days ago
I agree with the bottom line, but I would say that it's least likely to get SCOTUS approval because the issue splits the GOP coalition and most of the GOP Justices are ideologically committed to lower taxes and freer trade.
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kate wagner
12 days ago
dawg not the steakhouse wedding font
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Brendan Nyhan
12 days ago
So much D over-claiming about last night. Bingo card: -"This proves we have to {do what I wanted to do anyway}" -"{A winning D} supported {position on which Ds are vulnerable} therefore it doesn't matter" -"{A losing R} used {issue/tactic on which Ds are vulnerable} therefore it doesn't matter"
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Dave Itzkoff
12 days ago
âI wish Andrew Cuomo only the best in private lifeâ
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Chris Hayes
12 days ago
âTURN THE VOLUME UP!â Banger of a line from Mamdani
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Dave Weigel
12 days ago
Cuomo gave a fairly graceless concession speech, and Mamdani rips his skin off: "My friends, we have toppled a political dynasty. I wish Andrew Cuomo the best in private life. But let tonight be the last time I mention his name."
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Renee DiResta
12 days ago
Counterpoint: this bullshit policy was touted as something that should be rolled out nationwide, as a fking paragon of progressive policy. It showed up in âdetrackingâ decks in districts across the country. While parents in SF literally filed FOIAs bc the district lied ab impact. No retcons tks.
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Don Moynihan
13 days ago
This is an incredible and very specific hater energy
substack.com/home/post/p-...
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Dick Cheney, ABD
Remembering the greatest alt-ac of them all
https://substack.com/home/post/p-177974421?source=queue
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Raffi Melkonian
13 days ago
In a normal situation, this order would be so humiliating the district judge would act within the week.
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ArtButMakeItSports
15 days ago
Abduction of Proserpina, by Giambologna, 1579 (from the @NortonSimon Museum in Pasadena), đž by @nturchiarophoto
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Matt Grossmann
16 days ago
Studying social sciences & humanities makes students more left-leaning, controlling for initial views & major preference, driven by cultural views. Implies that if all students majored in business, collegeânoncollege ideological gap would shrink by 1/3
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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Jamal Greene
15 days ago
Well, this is a story all about how, this game got flipped turned upside down . . . .
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George Conway đșđžđ«đđž
15 days ago
i'm sorry but that play at the plate had to be AI-generated
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Quack
15 days ago
An Air Canada flight right now
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www.nytimes.com/2025/10/31/u...
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The Debate Dividing the Supreme Courtâs Liberal Justices
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/31/us/politics/supreme-court-kagan-jackson-liberal-justices.html
17 days ago
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Chris Hayes
18 days ago
Excited for 2028 when some state SoS kicks Trump off the ballot, Federal district and appellate judges uphold it and then SCOTUS issues an unsigned 6-3 shadow docket rulling staying the lower court ruling, allowing Trump to stay on the ballot and schedules arguments for the case for February 2029.
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Josh Chafetz
19 days ago
Fantastic
@jamellebouie.net
column today -- and not *just* because he quotes
@richardprimus.bsky.social
and me ...
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...
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Opinion | The Empty Promises of Trumpâs Imperial Presidency
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/opinion/snap-hunger-republicans-congress.html
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Andrew Gelman et al.
19 days ago
The WAR war and the electoral benefits of running more moderate candidates for political office
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/29/t...
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The WAR war and the electoral benefits of running more moderate candidates for political office | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/29/the-war-war-and-the-electoral-benefits-of-running-more-moderate-candidates-for-political-office/
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Meredith Conroy
20 days ago
This was a great convo.
@smettler.bsky.social
is brilliant and here you can listen to her talk at length about an important topic - rural identity.
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Andy Kostrub
25 days ago
Updating my LEGO White House
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Jamal Greene
26 days ago
One of the things you learn about the law after a bit of study is how much legal compliance relies on socializing the lawâs legitimacy. When law becomes purely transactional, itâs just another racket competing with all the others for dominance.
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Tom Clark
27 days ago
These words from a judge - accusing peer judges of blatant political judging - are really striking.
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Barred and Boujee aka Madiba Dennie
30 days ago
Amazing sign being held by a small child
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Molly Reynolds
about 1 month ago
The executive branch not spending the money that Congress has told them to spend is bad. The executive branch spending money on things for which Congress has not given them money is also bad (and, arguably, worse).
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Thomas J Wood
about 1 month ago
The inversion between income and Whites' presidential vote is also found among the validated voters in the just released Cooperative Election Study.
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Brendan Nyhan
about 1 month ago
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Should be illegal to make a graph about American politics where red/blue does not map to party ID.
about 1 month ago
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Jamal Greene
about 1 month ago
I wonder if ruling for an authoritarian president of your own party 18 straight times (or whatever it is now), often without any reasoning at all, gives any impressions that a Supreme Court justice should wish not to give.
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Tom Clark
about 1 month ago
The biggest story you should read today is that dozens of federal judges are willing to talk about how alarmed they are by SCOTUSâ willingness to step in on an emergency basis and allow the Trump Administration to do things that seem illegal. Their candor is unprecedented.
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www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/u...
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Federal Judges, Warning of âJudicial Crisis,â Fault Supreme Courtâs Emergency Orders
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/us/politics/judicial-crisis-supreme-court-trump.html
about 1 month ago
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Don Moynihan
about 1 month ago
Democrats has a trifecta in 2021 and did not do any of these things. Maybe Dems should be taking notes on power politics here.
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Filipe Campante
about 1 month ago
It might be hard to convey to people outside economics just how seismic this is. The Trump effect has most certainly arrived to US academia.
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APSA
about 1 month ago
Traceability and Mass Policy Feedback Effects Traceability and Mass Policy Feedback Effects By Brian T. Hamel, University of North Texas Theory suggests that policy benefits delivered directly by government are most likely to affect the voting behavior of beneficiaries. Nearly every empiricalâŠ
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Traceability and Mass Policy Feedback Effects
Traceability and Mass Policy Feedback Effects By Brian T. Hamel, University of North Texas Theory suggests that policy benefits delivered directly by government are most likely to affect the voting behavior of beneficiaries. Nearly every empirical study, however, analyzes a policy or program that meets this criterion. To address this limitation, I compare the electoral impacts of two New Deal-era employment programsâthe Works Progress Administration (WPA) and the Public Works Administration (PWA)âwhich differed primarily in their traceability to government.
https://politicalsciencenow.com/traceability-and-mass-policy-feedback-effects-2/
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about 1 month ago
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Steven S Smith
about 2 months ago
Repubs may eventually nuke supermajority cloture on CRs or even on all appropriations bills. For now, they seem to like shutdown politics. That may not be true in 45 days.
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Jonathan Bernstein
about 2 months ago
I see many of you saying that it's obvious Republicans are responsible for the upcoming shutdown and Dems just have to say so but I would ask you to step back and ask yourselves what you would be saying if Dems had unified government and a clean CR was being blocked by a GOP filibuster.
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Karl Bode
about 2 months ago
I'll die a thousand deaths on the hill that we should have never lost the cultural shame involved in "selling out"
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Kate Shaw
about 2 months ago
Sat down with
@stevevladeck.bsky.social
&
@williambaude.bsky.social
to talk start of a new SCOTUS term, end of an unprecedented summer on the shadow docket, & 20 years of Chief Justice John Roberts
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/o...
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Opinion | âHyperchargedâ Is the Only Word for This Supreme Court
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/opinion/supreme-court-john-roberts-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.p08.QuD_._sSd1xBqUcAA&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
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Tom Clark
about 2 months ago
The Supreme Courtâs history is full of justices making up facts and history and then establishing rules based on those facts. What distinguishes this Court, I think, is that it is doing so in an environment where they have so much access to so much information.
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Don Moynihan
about 2 months ago
One more time
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