As a former member of NYT’s finance team & the co-author of this story exposing the relationship between Epstein & Bill Gates as well as one on Epstein & JPMorgan, I am really frustrated to see people claiming that NYT sat on publishable info about Trump and Epstein 🧵 www.nytimes.com/2019/10/12/b...

The value of close reading: Larry Summers edition statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/13/t...

Noted economist likes to talk about demographics but he doesn’t know the actual facts. statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/12/n...

Matt makes a critical point. The pain of the shutdown was seriously ramping up while pressure on Republicans had yet to really build. They were losing in polls but not by a margin that would cause them to abandon Trump or Thune. Very skeptical Dems would have won much more by holding out longer.

This is Chris Rock's "in-case-shit" bit on insurance, except from a U.S. senator who is a doctor.

Congressional Democrats are discovering the lessons that Republicans learned by launching shutdowns as the minority, they don't end when the governing party capitulates on policy, eventually the hold outs just give up.

Some thoughts on the CR/minibus. 1 The Dems negotiating with Rs were not freelancing. They coordinated with Sen Schumer. A few were ready to give in on day one, others worked to maximize appropriations wins. Those voting for the 'deal' are the ones furthest away from electoral consequences.

I will probably get excommunicated from Bsky for saying that, but I can see a case for ending the shutdown now. - Millions of civil servants did not get a salary for over a month, and millions are losing SNAP going into the holiday season. - But, just as important...

I see a lot of bad incentives for Democrats to be outraged tonight. It’s a short term CR. Dems have until the end of the year to get the health care subsidies. They can shut it down again if they have to. They’re playing with fire if they hold out too long. Planes will crash.

We're closing on two months of one person single-handedly shuttering Congress. This is beyond absurd. No one should be able to do this.

I agree with the bottom line, but I would say that it's least likely to get SCOTUS approval because the issue splits the GOP coalition and most of the GOP Justices are ideologically committed to lower taxes and freer trade.

dawg not the steakhouse wedding font

So much D over-claiming about last night. Bingo card: -"This proves we have to {do what I wanted to do anyway}" -"{A winning D} supported {position on which Ds are vulnerable} therefore it doesn't matter" -"{A losing R} used {issue/tactic on which Ds are vulnerable} therefore it doesn't matter"

“I wish Andrew Cuomo only the best in private life”

“TURN THE VOLUME UP!” Banger of a line from Mamdani

Cuomo gave a fairly graceless concession speech, and Mamdani rips his skin off: "My friends, we have toppled a political dynasty. I wish Andrew Cuomo the best in private life. But let tonight be the last time I mention his name."

Counterpoint: this bullshit policy was touted as something that should be rolled out nationwide, as a fking paragon of progressive policy. It showed up in “detracking” decks in districts across the country. While parents in SF literally filed FOIAs bc the district lied ab impact. No retcons tks.

This is an incredible and very specific hater energy substack.com/home/post/p-...

In a normal situation, this order would be so humiliating the district judge would act within the week.

Abduction of Proserpina, by Giambologna, 1579 (from the @NortonSimon Museum in Pasadena), 📸 by @nturchiarophoto

Studying social sciences & humanities makes students more left-leaning, controlling for initial views & major preference, driven by cultural views. Implies that if all students majored in business, college–noncollege ideological gap would shrink by 1/3 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Well, this is a story all about how, this game got flipped turned upside down . . . .

i'm sorry but that play at the plate had to be AI-generated

An Air Canada flight right now

Excited for 2028 when some state SoS kicks Trump off the ballot, Federal district and appellate judges uphold it and then SCOTUS issues an unsigned 6-3 shadow docket rulling staying the lower court ruling, allowing Trump to stay on the ballot and schedules arguments for the case for February 2029.

Fantastic @jamellebouie.net column today -- and not *just* because he quotes @richardprimus.bsky.social and me ... www.nytimes.com/2025/10/29/o...

The WAR war and the electoral benefits of running more moderate candidates for political office statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/29/t...

This was a great convo. @smettler.bsky.social is brilliant and here you can listen to her talk at length about an important topic - rural identity.

Updating my LEGO White House

One of the things you learn about the law after a bit of study is how much legal compliance relies on socializing the law’s legitimacy. When law becomes purely transactional, it’s just another racket competing with all the others for dominance.

These words from a judge - accusing peer judges of blatant political judging - are really striking.

Amazing sign being held by a small child

The executive branch not spending the money that Congress has told them to spend is bad. The executive branch spending money on things for which Congress has not given them money is also bad (and, arguably, worse).

The inversion between income and Whites' presidential vote is also found among the validated voters in the just released Cooperative Election Study.

Should be illegal to make a graph about American politics where red/blue does not map to party ID.

I wonder if ruling for an authoritarian president of your own party 18 straight times (or whatever it is now), often without any reasoning at all, gives any impressions that a Supreme Court justice should wish not to give.

The biggest story you should read today is that dozens of federal judges are willing to talk about how alarmed they are by SCOTUS’ willingness to step in on an emergency basis and allow the Trump Administration to do things that seem illegal. Their candor is unprecedented.

Democrats has a trifecta in 2021 and did not do any of these things. Maybe Dems should be taking notes on power politics here.

It might be hard to convey to people outside economics just how seismic this is. The Trump effect has most certainly arrived to US academia.

Traceability and Mass Policy Feedback Effects Traceability and Mass Policy Feedback Effects By Brian T. Hamel, University of North Texas Theory suggests that policy benefits delivered directly by government are most likely to affect the voting behavior of beneficiaries. Nearly every empirical…

Repubs may eventually nuke supermajority cloture on CRs or even on all appropriations bills. For now, they seem to like shutdown politics. That may not be true in 45 days.

I see many of you saying that it's obvious Republicans are responsible for the upcoming shutdown and Dems just have to say so but I would ask you to step back and ask yourselves what you would be saying if Dems had unified government and a clean CR was being blocked by a GOP filibuster.

I'll die a thousand deaths on the hill that we should have never lost the cultural shame involved in "selling out"

Sat down with @stevevladeck.bsky.social & @williambaude.bsky.social to talk start of a new SCOTUS term, end of an unprecedented summer on the shadow docket, & 20 years of Chief Justice John Roberts www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/o...

The Supreme Court’s history is full of justices making up facts and history and then establishing rules based on those facts. What distinguishes this Court, I think, is that it is doing so in an environment where they have so much access to so much information.

One more time