Und wie es der Zufall so will, haben die Kollegen @tobiaspfella.bsky.social und @lbumeder.bsky.social eine Analyse zu konventioneller Abschreckung für @internationalepolitik.de verfasst, die man unbedingt auch gelesen haben sollte. internationalepolitik.de/de/risiken-d...

Just one thing about Macron’s speech on nuclear deterrence — we told you so in 2025: Peace Report/Chapter 3/Page 92; lnkd.in/dicEcsVq

📄 Our latest Issue Brief "Preserving the Moratorium on Explosive Nuclear Weapons Testing" by Lynn Rusten examines the current challenges and outlines how this critical norm can be upheld. 🔗 Read here: deepcuts.org/publications...

📢 New Issue Brief from the DeepCuts Commission 👉 One of the major non-proliferation achievements of the past 30 years has been the global moratorium on nuclear explosive testing. Rising tensions and renewed testing threats now put this norm and the CTBT’s legacy under serious pressure.

New @deepcutsproject.bsky.social Issue Brief out, authored by Lynn Rusten — this one tackles nuclear testing. Timely and important read — don’t miss it. deepcuts.org/publications... @jonatomic.bsky.social @nukestrat.bsky.social @jjjcameron.bsky.social @shashj.bsky.social

Was passiert nun nach dem Ende des New START-Vertrags? @tobiaspfella.bsky.social im Interview mit dem ZDF heute journal ➡️ www.zdfheute.de/video/heute-...

📢 New joint statement out from the DeepCuts Commission With the expiration of the New START Treaty on 5 February 2026, the U.S. and Russia will, for the first time in decades, have no bilateral nuclear arms control agreement in place.

"'Europe has been dependent on the United States . . .' Traut said. There was 'a strong need to build up some German and European sovereign capabilities in missile detection and interception . . . We not only want to be able to detect missiles early, we want to be able to fight them early.'"

For Europe, it will remain a balancing act. A sensible approach would be to channel the US‑requested increases in defence spending into strengthening genuinely European capabilities. Trump’s statements on burden‑sharing could provide pol. cover for such a strategy www.reuters.com/world/hegset...

Proud to co‑author "Future Formats of Nuclear Arms Control" — a Deep Cuts brief on how traditional U.S.–Russia arms control has eroded and what practical formats (bilateral, multilateral, tech‑focused) could help stabilize nuclear great power relations. Read it here: deepcuts.org/publications...

I co-authored a BAKS paper on the Jan 2026 Berlin blackout: Conditionally Resilient. It exposes gaps in Germany’s crisis preparedness amid growing sabotage threats. www.baks.bund.de/de/arbeitspa...

Berlin's multi-day blackout in early 26 highlights how 🇩🇪's critical infrastructures remain insufficiently protected against sabotage & other threats. In a new IFSH Brief Analysis (in 🇩🇪), Wolfgang Rudischhauser, Matthias Schulze, Mateusz Łabuz & I address the consequences: www.ifsh.de/news-detail/...

Traditional, state-centric theories reach a dead end when it comes to explaining Trump’s foreign policy. In my new IFSH brief analysis (in 🇩🇪), From Venezuela to Greenland: Consequences of US hemispheric policy, I argue that fresh concepts are needed to grasp these shifts. www.ifsh.de/news-detail/...

Die USA bedrohen #Grönland (Dänemark) und setzen damit auch die #EU und die #NATO unter Druck. Welche Art von Außenpolitik verfolgt die US-Regierung unter Donald Trump? In seiner IFSH-Kurzanalyse nähert sich unser US-Experte @tobiaspfella.bsky.social dieser Frage an. Hier nachlesen ➡️ t1p.de/qfwnp

"Nach der Ankündigung von US-Präsident Trump zu möglichen Atomtests folgt nun die Antwort des russischen Präsidenten: Sollten die USA dies tun, würde Russland nachziehen. Vorbereitungen habe er bereits angeordnet, so Putin." www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asie...

"U.S. military officials involved with President Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements [...] a development that raises new questions about a military buildup that Venezuela fears may lead to an invasion." www.reuters.com/world/americ...

Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.

Why the impact of Poland and its NATO allies' decision to shoot down Russian drones may well be stabilizing. Expanding a bit on my Bluesky thread from yesterday with an entry in the @crisisgroup.org Analyst's Notebook series.

Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7

Germany’s defence debate is stuck in a numbers game – more tanks, jets, and spending. @tobiaspfella.bsky.social and I argue that what’s missing is a genuine strategic debate. We illustrate this by examining the newly introduced category of “Medium Forces.”

What could Europe have done differently to have more say in its own security today? I discussed this with Web.de News in context of the upcoming Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, web.de/magazine/pol...

I was interviewed by @zdfde.bsky.social (ZDFheute) about current discussions on territorial concessions ahead of the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. www.zdfheute.de/video/heute-...

I was interviewed by the Pforzheimer Zeitung and made the argument that we are currently in a phase of nuclear rearmament. www.pz-news.de/politik_arti...

I was interviewed by Jutta Sonnewald via @zdfde.bsky.social about the idea of a drone wall on NATO’s eastern border. www.zdfheute.de/politik/deut...

I gave an interview to @rbb24.de about US policy on Ukraine. I explained why it’s of limited value to focus only on single Trump administration decisions. What matters is the structural transformation of the US and its consequences. www.inforadio.de/rubriken/int...

„Der Begriff Drohnenwall suggeriert fälschlicherweise, es könnte eine einfache, günstige und flächendeckende Lösung zur Verteidigung der Nato-Ostflanke geben, die völlige Sicherheit bietet.“

My interview with Marc Hasse of DER SPIEGEL on the NATO drone wall was featured in a report by Web.de, web.de/magazine/pol...

Marc Hasse (@marc-hasse.bsky.social) from @spiegel.de interviewed me about the concept of a NATO drone wall. www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft...

"President Donald Trump is expected to announce he has selected the path forward for his ambitious Golden Dome missile defense shield, a U.S. official said on Tuesday." www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

"Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near the border with Finland, in what NATO officials describe as the early stages of a long-term buildup", www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/05/19/s...

"U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had 'sort of' agreed to the terms." www.reuters.com/world/trump-...

"French President Emmanuel Macron said he was 'ready to open a discussion' with European allies about stationing France’s nuclear weapons on their soil, in an effort to beef up defences against Russia." www.ft.com/content/9623...

Meine Kollegen @percepticon.bsky.social und Mateusz Łabuz zur Manipulierbarkeit von Large Language Models (vulgo: KI). Verstörend und lesenswert. background.tagesspiegel.de/it-und-cyber...

Current developments in the US are the result of structural transformations. Focusing on individual actors alone provides an incomplete picture. Furthermore, the idealized image of America held by many transatlanticists is a myth that has contributed to ineffective European policies toward the US.

If you feel like taking your mind off the tariffs, Ulrich Kühn, @profonderco.bsky.social, @hfayet.bsky.social, @andrewfutter.bsky.social, James Acton, @paulvanhooft.bsky.social, @bollfrass.bsky.social, George Perkovich, and I have written about Eurodeterrence. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

"Pete Hegseth will not attend a gathering of 50 countries to coordinate military support for Ukraine, multiple European officials and a U.S. official said — the first time the coalition will gather without America’s secretary of defense participating." www.defensenews.com/pentagon/202...

Britain will push ahead with a multi-billion pound deal to buy US fighter jets in defiance of European warnings that President Trump could disable the aircraft. Ministers are set to confirm the purchase of F-35 Lightnings instead of “expensive” Eurofighter Typhoons

There is a widespread misunderstanding in reporting on 🇩🇪. During the Cold War, 🇩🇪 prepared extensively for war. What is new today, however, is the structural change in the US, which signifies the collapse of the main pillar of 🇩🇪 foreign policy since 1945. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Another sign of structural change in America. Dugin speaks on CNN, edition.cnn.com/2025/03/30/w...

European NATO member states: reassurance force options and assessed capabilities 👇 Interesting paper: www.iiss.org/research-pap...

We have entered a new imperial era. Imperial logic has never truly disappeared. The US has always been an imperial republic, caught in the tension between democracy and empire. However, today's changes are transformative, heralding a fundamental reconfiguration of the global order.

"We'll get Greenland. Yeah, 100%," Trump said in an interview NBC, kyivindependent.com/well-get-gre...

Paul van Hooft, Lukas Mengelkamp, and I have been exploring how European defense could be designed independently of the United States. Here's the link to the article => taz.de/Europaeische...

The sale of the F-35 to European nations is part of a clever imperial arms strategy by the United States, through which Washington seeks to maintain its military leadership role, writes Björn Müller in an interesting article. The goal of Europeans must be to gradually reduce dependencies on the USA.

Mafia tactics. If you don't accept the very bad deal, we will offer a worse one, accompanied by more threats. At this point, the US is damaging both Ukraine's and Europe's interests, and helping out Putin.

Interesting read for those of you interested in GOP politics, www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/u...

He has to do it, it is in his job discription www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Trump was elected president twice. The US is undergoing structural changes both domestically and in foreign policy. While an asymmetric transatlantic relationship may have been justified during the CW, it is no longer appropriate today, regardless of who occupies the White House.