"Nach der Ankündigung von US-Präsident Trump zu möglichen Atomtests folgt nun die Antwort des russischen Präsidenten: Sollten die USA dies tun, würde Russland nachziehen. Vorbereitungen habe er bereits angeordnet, so Putin." www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asie...

"U.S. military officials involved with President Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements [...] a development that raises new questions about a military buildup that Venezuela fears may lead to an invasion." www.reuters.com/world/americ...

Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.

Why the impact of Poland and its NATO allies' decision to shoot down Russian drones may well be stabilizing. Expanding a bit on my Bluesky thread from yesterday with an entry in the @crisisgroup.org Analyst's Notebook series.

Whatever was behind the Russian drones entering Poland via Belarus (recce? probe? error?), we're seeing some pretty smart responses from, so far, Warsaw, NATO (& some individual allies), & Minsk. A quick 🧵 1/7

Germany’s defence debate is stuck in a numbers game – more tanks, jets, and spending. @tobiaspfella.bsky.social and I argue that what’s missing is a genuine strategic debate. We illustrate this by examining the newly introduced category of “Medium Forces.”

What could Europe have done differently to have more say in its own security today? I discussed this with Web.de News in context of the upcoming Putin-Trump summit in Alaska, web.de/magazine/pol...

I was interviewed by @zdfde.bsky.social (ZDFheute) about current discussions on territorial concessions ahead of the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. www.zdfheute.de/video/heute-...

I was interviewed by the Pforzheimer Zeitung and made the argument that we are currently in a phase of nuclear rearmament. www.pz-news.de/politik_arti...

I was interviewed by Jutta Sonnewald via @zdfde.bsky.social about the idea of a drone wall on NATO’s eastern border. www.zdfheute.de/politik/deut...

I gave an interview to @rbb24.de about US policy on Ukraine. I explained why it’s of limited value to focus only on single Trump administration decisions. What matters is the structural transformation of the US and its consequences. www.inforadio.de/rubriken/int...

„Der Begriff Drohnenwall suggeriert fälschlicherweise, es könnte eine einfache, günstige und flächendeckende Lösung zur Verteidigung der Nato-Ostflanke geben, die völlige Sicherheit bietet.“

My interview with Marc Hasse of DER SPIEGEL on the NATO drone wall was featured in a report by Web.de, web.de/magazine/pol...

Marc Hasse (@marc-hasse.bsky.social) from @spiegel.de interviewed me about the concept of a NATO drone wall. www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft...

Iran says parliament is preparing bill to leave nuclear non-proliferation treaty - www.reuters.com/world/middle...

1/ Very important signal that UK might return to air-launched tactical nuclear forces by buying F-35A and participating in US nuclear sharing arrangements. There had been indications that UK was preparing to be able to host B61 tactical nuclear weapons. www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/a...

"President Donald Trump is expected to announce he has selected the path forward for his ambitious Golden Dome missile defense shield, a U.S. official said on Tuesday." www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

"Russia is expanding its military infrastructure near the border with Finland, in what NATO officials describe as the early stages of a long-term buildup", www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/05/19/s...

"U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had 'sort of' agreed to the terms." www.reuters.com/world/trump-...

"French President Emmanuel Macron said he was 'ready to open a discussion' with European allies about stationing France’s nuclear weapons on their soil, in an effort to beef up defences against Russia." www.ft.com/content/9623...

Our new FAS Nuclear Notebook on Russian nuclear forces is now available. We estimate a stockpile of just over 4,300 warheads, modernizations, but also delays. Earlier STRATCOM projection of significant increase in tac nukes has not yet materialized. www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

Meine Kollegen @percepticon.bsky.social und Mateusz Łabuz zur Manipulierbarkeit von Large Language Models (vulgo: KI). Verstörend und lesenswert. background.tagesspiegel.de/it-und-cyber...

Current developments in the US are the result of structural transformations. Focusing on individual actors alone provides an incomplete picture. Furthermore, the idealized image of America held by many transatlanticists is a myth that has contributed to ineffective European policies toward the US.

If you feel like taking your mind off the tariffs, Ulrich Kühn, @profonderco.bsky.social, @hfayet.bsky.social, @andrewfutter.bsky.social, James Acton, @paulvanhooft.bsky.social, @bollfrass.bsky.social, George Perkovich, and I have written about Eurodeterrence. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

"Pete Hegseth will not attend a gathering of 50 countries to coordinate military support for Ukraine, multiple European officials and a U.S. official said — the first time the coalition will gather without America’s secretary of defense participating." www.defensenews.com/pentagon/202...

If Europe can't count on Washington, should it turn to London and Paris instead?

Britain will push ahead with a multi-billion pound deal to buy US fighter jets in defiance of European warnings that President Trump could disable the aircraft. Ministers are set to confirm the purchase of F-35 Lightnings instead of “expensive” Eurofighter Typhoons

There is a widespread misunderstanding in reporting on 🇩🇪. During the Cold War, 🇩🇪 prepared extensively for war. What is new today, however, is the structural change in the US, which signifies the collapse of the main pillar of 🇩🇪 foreign policy since 1945. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Another sign of structural change in America. Dugin speaks on CNN, edition.cnn.com/2025/03/30/w...

European NATO member states: reassurance force options and assessed capabilities 👇 Interesting paper: www.iiss.org/research-pap...

We have entered a new imperial era. Imperial logic has never truly disappeared. The US has always been an imperial republic, caught in the tension between democracy and empire. However, today's changes are transformative, heralding a fundamental reconfiguration of the global order.

"We'll get Greenland. Yeah, 100%," Trump said in an interview NBC, kyivindependent.com/well-get-gre...

Paul van Hooft, Lukas Mengelkamp, and I have been exploring how European defense could be designed independently of the United States. Here's the link to the article => taz.de/Europaeische...

The sale of the F-35 to European nations is part of a clever imperial arms strategy by the United States, through which Washington seeks to maintain its military leadership role, writes Björn Müller in an interesting article. The goal of Europeans must be to gradually reduce dependencies on the USA.

Mafia tactics. If you don't accept the very bad deal, we will offer a worse one, accompanied by more threats. At this point, the US is damaging both Ukraine's and Europe's interests, and helping out Putin.

Interesting read for those of you interested in GOP politics, www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/u...

He has to do it, it is in his job discription www.reuters.com/world/europe...

Trump was elected president twice. The US is undergoing structural changes both domestically and in foreign policy. While an asymmetric transatlantic relationship may have been justified during the CW, it is no longer appropriate today, regardless of who occupies the White House.

Big moves ahead of Hague summit. “Europe’s biggest military powers are drawing up plans to take on greater responsibilities for the continent’s defence from the US, incl. a pitch to the Trump admin for a managed transfer over the next five to 10 years.” on.ft.com/4bLKKQT

Dringend gesucht: Eine europäische Verteidigungsstrategie. Heute zusammen mit @paulvanhooft.bsky.social und @tobiaspfella.bsky.social in der @taz.de dazu. (1/3) taz.de/!6072680/

Good piece by my colleague @tobiaspfella.bsky.social on the why, how and when of transatlantic decoupling. nationalinterest.org/blog/politic...

The US as "enemy of the West", another example of how much things have changed in Europe, www.ft.com/content/b46e...

"President Donald Trump on Friday fired the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force General C.Q. Brown, and pushed out five other admirals and generals in an unprecedented shake-up of U.S. military leadership." www.reuters.com/world/us/tru...

"Top allies of President Donald Trump are in an escalating clash with the Republican Party’s once-powerful defense hawks, viewing them as key obstacles standing in the way of a thorough remaking of U.S. foreign policy" www.politico.com/news/2025/02...

"Germany’s likely next chancellor warned that Europe can no longer rely on the US to defend it unconditionally" www.ft.com/content/8be4...

"How the return of British tactical nuclear weapons could save Europe" www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...

Ich wurde vom Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland zur sicherheitspolitischen Dynamik im Baltikum und in Polen interviewt, u.a. vor dem Hintergrund von Trumps Forderung nach einer massiven Erhöhung der Verteidigungsausgaben in NATO-Europa, www.rnd.de/politik/aufr...

CSU proposes a massive overhaul of the Bundeswehr in "Masterplan defense": 500k soldiers, 2,500km range missiles, drone army, Iron Dome defense shield... augengeradeaus.net/2025/02/csu-...

Empires always haven been there, the nation-state was/is a new thing. Empire is not the same as imperialism. US has imperial characteristics, same is true for the EU. But not all empires are the same: RU, CHN, USA, EU etc. www.ft.com/content/8d1a...

Ein strategischer Rüstungswettlauf zwichen den 🇺🇸, 🇨🇳 und 🇷🇺 zeichnet sich am Horizont ab. Ein Wettlauf mit konventionellen Mittelstreckenraketen in Europa hat bereits begonnen. Was 🇩🇪 in diesem Kontext beachten muss, habe ich hier mit Lucian Bumeder skizziert internationalepolitik.de/de/deutschla...