I believe this is called metacognitive miscalibration

'Warhammer' maker Games Workshop has banned the use of AI in its content production and its design process • A small number of senior managers have experimented with GenAI tools — none are that excited about the technology • The company plans to hire more human creatives

AI use for progress notes is causing serious privacy and clinical risks in aged care. Professional bodies need to act. AI shouldnt be used for client notes and reports hellocare.com.au/ai-use-for-p...

On behalf of the Science NZ Early Career Member Group (ECMG), I’m delighted to share our new publication in the New Zealand Science Review: ‘Pressures and Pathways: Early Career Experiences in Aotearoa New Zealand’s Public Research Organisations’: doi.org/10.26686/nzs... 🧵1/5

nice piece on narcissism and conspiracy belief by @tylorcos.bsky.social theconversation.com/why-do-educa...

Here, for those wanting to play with the data, and note the 40 point move over the last 6 months of 2023 that is not reflected in anything economic, is the ANZ Business confidence headline numbers since 2008 (and another column of quarterly GDP(I) current prices) gist.github.com/thoughtfulbl...

QUAKE: Mag 4.5, Tue, Jan 13 2026, 11:21:32 PM, 5 km south-west of Pongaroa. Depth: 22 km #eqnz https://www.geonet.org.nz/earthquake/2026p033598#eqnz

Kārearea, with its usual look of disdain....

Thanks Radio NZ for careful, reporting of NZ’s record temperatures via Earth Science. My frustration is with @tvnz.bsky.social no climate editor leaves TVNZ reliant on reporters, many great but others need help-not mentioning climate change/causes once was unacceptable www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...

I think important context not in that article is while international arrivals to Queenstown are up 40%, arrivals to New Zealand are down 7% (2025 vs 2019). It is changes in where people are arriving- Invercargill is up 204% and Hamilton up 22,850% in the same period but won't get glossy adverstories

After the US admin cancelled the $B Climate + Weather Disaster dataset, @climatecentral.org hired the scientists who ran it and set it back up. Now the 2025 numbers are in: it's 3rd highest year on record and highest year w/o land-falling hurricanes. More: www.climatecentral.org/climate-serv...

"E-bikes and scooters displace 4x as much demand for oil as all of the EVs in the world" And still no plans or incentives from our federal and provincial governments to help people choose bikes instead of cars. Quite the opposite, actually. arstechnica.com/cars/2023/11...

Felt that in Palmy - proper wobble. #eqnz

Magnificent thread!

Prophet revises time of apocalypse after originally projected date passes uneventfully.

Never imagined I’d get to sit down with CIA agents for a conversation. Life is weird. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...

LT Study. Trickle down Trick. “The incomes of rich grew much faster in countries where tax rates were lowered. Instead of trickling down to middle class, tax cuts for the rich may not accomplish much more than help the rich keep more of their riches & exacerbate income inequality” Like NZ. #nzpol

2025 goes down as the ~3rd-warmest year on record (based on ERA5). Like in 2024, every single day this past year was warmer than the average of even the most recent reference period (1991-2020).

Testing the socio-functional model: Does precarity cause conspiracy belief? TLDR; probably not huge thx: Antipodean Misinformation and Conspiracies Club @matthewmatix.bsky.social @lingtax.bsky.social @scicomguy.bsky.social @srhastraea.bsky.social @eddieclarke.bsky.social & students osf.io/nq3y7/

My kid is 14. He uses discord to talk to friends when playing Minecraft and dnd. He has no interest in FB or instagram or TikTok, but a social media hard-cap of age 16 would limit his social life unnecessarily with no benefit. Ffs, direct policy at platforms not users. Or ban boomers as well.

In this new paper, we look at some different dimensions on which beliefs vary: - Is the belief deeply important to your identity? - Would you change your mind if you got evidence against it? - Is it best described in terms of credences (“pretty sure”), or is it more yes/no? 1/

We got it. Thousands of us didn't so much leave Spark Arena as float out the doors. The video of Marlon playing the Sydney Opera House in May went up recently, and it's wonderful. The show at Spark, with Kommi in the house, was even better. We're lucky. youtu.be/Ctk1QWVqWR0?...

New Zealand just recorded its first-ever day of zero coal- or gas-fired electricity. In fact two days, 20 & 21 December. (Still some co-gen, about 1.8%.)

Worked hard to get this into Guardian Oz & big props to @fiercemum.bsky.social for setting it up & Melissa Davey for publishing it. She will doubtless get loads of hassle from transphobes for it, but it needs to be out there. Puberty Blocker bans harm trans kids, no-one should pretend they don’t.

Although the winter months are not great for solar, the third quarter saw a terrific boost, especially in utility solar (farms) Utility solar 41.2 GWh in Q2, 62.9 in Q3 (+53%) Distributed 128 in Q2, 148.5 in Q3 (+16%) Total up 25% for the quarter, 64% yoy. Next two quarters will be sensational!

Closing out my year with a journal editor shocker 🧵 Checking new manuscripts today I reviewed a paper attributing 2 papers to me I did not write. A daft thing for an author to do of course. But intrigued I web searched up one of the titles and that's when it got real weird...

Always nice to get a scientific poll to remind us that TalkBack radio and the Facebook comment section are not actually representative of public opinion www.phcc.org.nz/briefing/pub...

There are many claims that AI is a “planet killing” source of greenhouse gases. But is it? This paper might be the most detailed estimate of the emissions associated with AI. It suggests that AI could emit as much as 30-80 *million* tons of CO2 per year. www.cell.com/patterns/ful...

I want to talk briefly about the implications of using AI in creative work. First of all, we agree so-called "AI" is ruining our society and planet. BUT (yikes right?), AI is also transforming our cognitive relationship to the things we use it for. 1/12

Thom Scott-Phillips presents a novel analysis of people's spontaneous intuitions about sentence acceptability "grounded in theoretical and empirical knowledge from cognitive linguistics, cognitive psychology and evolutionary approaches to the mind." cadernos.abralin.org/index.php/ca...

Met the Pulitzer-winning war correspondent in 2008 when he gave the Anzac Address on Māori Television and he was genuinely still ‘the boy from Riverton’. RIP

Peter Gregg Arnett ONZM 1934 – 2025

"In a left-right divide, all three left-leaning party leaders from Labour, Green and TPM specifically mentioned the 15 March mosque attacks, but no-one from the governing coalition parties did." www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...

Read the study and think about population level implications, remembering that the vast majority of people have been infected multiple times. What are the possible long-term neurological sequelae? What are the implications for societies now? news.griffith.edu.au/2025/12/16/c...

#nzpol Data released today shows that for all the talk of green shoots, the economy hasn’t grown at all in 2 years. Unemployment is up, & the cost of living is still rising for middle and low-income New Zealanders. The GDP increase today simply balances out the fall previously. A Thread

Yesterday: Judge injuncts govt's puberty blocker ban unlawful due to incorrect (political not merits) grounds Today: Different Judge declares govt's appointment of the Chief HRC and RRC unlawful due to incorrect tests This govt has a type drive.google.com/file/d/1NqTj... @pault.bsky.social

No, that's the difference between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025. NZ GDP fell 0.5% over the year ended September 2025.

A 764 member in New Zealand plead guilty to 13 charges, including knowingly distributing child exploitation material, possessing objectionable publications, exposing a young person to indecent material, threatening to kill & failing to comply with a computer search www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/crime/haw...

🚨 Now out in Psych Science 🚨 We report an adversarial collaboration (with @donandrewmoore.bsky.social) testing whether overconfidence is genuinely a trait The paper was led by Jabin Binnendyk & Sophia Li (who is fantastic and on the job market!) Free copy here: journals.sagepub.com/eprint/7JIYS...

I don't think it would be surprising to anyone who follows me on here, but the dynamic of "person was mildly interested in AI, then was required to use it at work and has pivoted to full Butlerian Jihad once they saw how useless it was" is almost universal these days.

fMRI signals “up,” but neural metabolism might be going “down.” In our @natneuro.nature.com paper, we demonstrate that about 40% of voxels with robust BOLD responses exhibit opposite oxygen metabolism, revealing two distinct hemodynamic modes. rdcu.be/eUPO8 funds @erc.europa.eu #neuroskyence 🧵:

So here are all my thoughts (this evening) on what we are losing, and what we still have and what it was/is useful for. For those less familiar with me, I have no professional connection with the production of any of this data. But in my capacity as expert in av available public data in NZ... 1/13

Flu-Tracking is also the most currently "leading" public indicator with a week turn-around in reporting, so any sudden rises appear in a timely fashion. Covid wasterwater levels are the second most timely with around a 2 week (+ 5 days compilation) publication cycle. 5/13

Thanks for that As expected FluTracking stands out as both statistically relevant and accessible That simple clear graph each week is an excellent guide to how people should change their behaviour Probably one of the best spent $50k in public health

Fantastic article: "By focusing on how hard or how smart we work, all this talk about productivity is completely missing the point. Productivity is just about where we sit in the global economic system, and doesn’t have all that much to do with your holiday plans."

Can attest to the Wonder Woman variant in New Zealand.

And here is the graph in question:

Sovereign citizen: www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/3609...