Antoine Berthou
@antoineberthou.bsky.social
📤 99
📥 143
📝 2
Economist
https://sites.google.com/site/antoineberthou/
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Kirsten
6 months ago
And to cut off independent reporting
www.wsj.com/economy/trum...
loading . . .
Trump Calls on Goldman to Replace Economist Over Tariff Stance
The bank’s economists had predicted tariffs could cause inflation and slow economic growth.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trump-calls-on-goldman-to-replace-economist-over-tariff-stance-e9569e63?st=4RYVQS&reflink=article_copyURL_share
0
4
3
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
CEPII
9 months ago
📊🅻🅴 𝐆𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐪𝐮𝐞-🆃🅷🅴 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭 "La vulnérabilité bilatérale aux importations est plus forte aux États-Unis qu’en Europe" de Kevin Lefebvre et
@paulinewbx.bsky.social
www.cepii.fr/BLOG/bi/post...
@denizunalcepii.bsky.social
#econsky
#importation
1
6
4
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
International and Monetary Economics Network
10 months ago
The Fed will likely have a difficult task! "Economic Outlook", speech by Jay Powell at the Economic Club of Chicago "We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension."
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...
loading . . .
Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook
Thank you for the introduction. I am looking forward to our conversation, Professor Rajan. First, I will briefly discuss the outlook for the economy and moneta
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250416a.htm
0
1
1
The global economy in pictures : last few days have been tough… I truly hope we are heading towards quieter waters. This will require cold blood and … adults in the room !
10 months ago
0
3
0
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke
10 months ago
The US is ignoring WTO rules regarding trade in goods. Why should it enjoy WTO rules regarding trade in services? And how does anyone expect the rules-based system. on which countries like Ireland depend, to survive, if countries can pick and choose what rules to follow?
www.rte.ie/news/politic...
loading . . .
Targeting tech firms would be 'extraordinary escalation'
It would be an "extraordinary" escalation for the European Union to target US tech companies in retaliation for US President Donald Trump's blanket tariffs on European goods, the Tánaiste has said.
https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2025/0407/1506198-eu-trade/
3
38
11
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
VoxEU @ CEPR
11 months ago
Floods, wildfires, devastation—
#climate
disasters are growing, yet many remain uninsured. A CEPR-AXA Research Fund event explored the future of
#insurability
& the role of prevention, pricing, &
#policy
. More here: 🔗https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/insuring-world-tomorrow
@wederdim.bsky.social
0
5
3
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Michael Pettis
12 months ago
1/10 "The loss of German manufacturing jobs has been masked by a broader shift in employment trends," the FT notes, citing employment growth in services industries such as real estate, healthcare, communications and public administration.
www.ft.com/content/bdba...
loading . . .
https://www.ft.com/content/bdba0fc4-f651-41fa-9706-acaa4dc15bd0
5
34
10
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Soumaya Keynes
12 months ago
“I want a slice of bread but also I will howl with rage if you start slicing the bread” - my two year old
add a skeleton here at some point
5
85
14
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Pol Antras
12 months ago
10/ Want to dig deeper? Full paper:
antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Short version for AEA P&P:
antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Our six-digit NAICS measure of the APP can be downloaded here:
antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/file...
Replication package available soon.
loading . . .
https://antras.scholars.harvard.edu/sites/g/files/omnuum5876/files/2025-02/APP_NBER_Submission.pdf
0
1
1
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Pol Antras
12 months ago
1/ 📢 New paper alert! 📄 Together with Vitalii Tubdenov, we propose a measure of the "Average Period of Production" (APP) to capture the temporal dimension of production processes. It is inspired by Böhm-Bawerk’s capital theory.
1
14
4
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Marion Jansen
about 1 year ago
China has come to dominate global value chains for solar modules & wind turbines, accounting globally for >80% of module production + >70% of production of key turbine components. Is government support part of the success story? Find out more in this new OECD report:
www.oecd.org/en/publicati...
0
7
8
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Robert Wolfe
about 1 year ago
terrific interview with
@douglasirwin.bsky.social
If you're not a fan of podcasts, here's the transcript
www.ft.com/content/58ec...
add a skeleton here at some point
0
16
7
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Dennis Novy
about 1 year ago
Great interview:
@douglasirwin.bsky.social
on US trade policy — past and present By
@alanbeattie.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
loading . . .
Trump and the history of tariffs. With Doug Irwin
Podcast Episode · The Economics Show · 20/01/2025 · 43m
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-economics-show/id1746352576?i=1000684687830
1
6
4
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Adam Shapiro
about 1 year ago
Got the ball rolling on a Fed Economists starter pack
go.bsky.app/GudXeoo
Fed economists, let me know if you’re on Bluesky and I’ll add you
add a skeleton here at some point
20
119
61
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Menzie Chinn
about 1 year ago
Without comment: Elon Musk today.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VfY...
1
7
1
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
about 1 year ago
Our January 2025 World Economic Outlook Update is out. Global growth will remain steady at 3.3% for 2025-26, broadly aligned with world potential growth that has substantially weakened since before the pandemic.
www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
1
8
4
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Journal of International Economics
about 1 year ago
New at JIE: "From macro to micro: Large exporters coping with global crises" by Jean-Charles Bricongne, Juan Carluccio, Lionel Fontagné, Guillaume Gaulier, Sebastian Stumpner
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104037
1
2
3
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Philip A. Luck
about 1 year ago
I am excited to be joining
@csis.org
as the Director of the Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, leading a team conducting rigorous, applied economic analysis to shape U.S. strategic and economic policy.
www.csis.org/news/csis-na...
loading . . .
CSIS Names Philip A. Luck as Scholl Chair in International Business and Director of Economics Program
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) announced Philip A. Luck has been named Scholl Chair in International Business and Director of the CSIS Economics Program.
https://www.csis.org/news/csis-names-philip-luck-scholl-chair-international-business-and-director-economics-program
0
12
2
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Thomas Sampson
about 1 year ago
Nice FT write-up of our new Brexit & trade paper by the always excellent
@pmdfoster.bsky.social
Rightly notes that our findings (goods exports⬇️6.4% due to TCA, imports ⬇️3.1%) suggest OBR's forecast (long-run trade ⬇️15%) may be an over-estimate of the impact of Brexit
on.ft.com/4iK8esS
loading . . .
Brexit hit to UK trade less than predicted, says study
Larger companies have adapted to red tape at the border, according to London School of Economics research
https://on.ft.com/4iK8esS
4
30
20
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Menzie Chinn
about 1 year ago
How many lies can one pack into a single paragraph. See Jeffrey Tucker show you!
#econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
0
0
1
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Jason Furman
about 1 year ago
1. No exchange rate effect. In this case imports are 10% more expensive for consumers. Exports are the same (because the exchange rate did not change) and the trade deficit shrinks. The entire tariff is paid by Americans.
1
7
1
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Jason Furman
about 1 year ago
Tariffs & exchange rates. A short explainer of the simple case of 10% across-the-board tariffs. Let's start with no retaliation. Brief version: Tariffs will strengthen the U.S. dollar which will reduce impact on consumers but exacerbate it for exporters. Three cases:
3
33
20
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Michael Pettis
about 1 year ago
Good Paul Krugman piece on the relationship between the dollar and the US trade deficit: "the trade deficits of the 80s arguably marked the point at which the hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing really got going."
open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
loading . . .
The Dollar and the Trade Deficit
What will Trump do when his favorite obsession goes the wrong way?
https://open.substack.com/pub/paulkrugman/p/the-dollar-and-the-trade-deficit?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
11
250
55
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Dani Rodrik
about 1 year ago
A useful discussion by
@michaelpettis.bsky.social
of my piece on tariffs. I agree that if (a) an existing current account deficit is inefficient; and (b) a tariff can reduce/correct the deficit, that a tariff can be efficiency enhancing, in a second-best sense. But the caveats are important. +
add a skeleton here at some point
5
44
15
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke
about 1 year ago
This is making me feel young again, it's all very 1980s! Back then Mike Gavin and I independently showed that tariffs can improve the current account in an inter-temporal S-I framework, by hurting income more in the long run than in the short run. So not necessarily to be recommended...
1
10
4
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
hilzoy
about 1 year ago
"If Trump insists on his view, the good news, for the rest of the world at least, is that the economic costs will be borne mainly by Americans."
add a skeleton here at some point
1
14
5
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Michael Pettis
about 1 year ago
8/8 That is why I often cite Ragnar Nurkse: “the devaluation of a currency is expansionary in effect if it corrects a previous overvaluation, but deflationary if it makes the currency undervalued.” This is true about any policy that changes existing trade relationships.
0
20
1
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Michael Pettis
about 1 year ago
6/8 That is why the comparison with currency depreciation is useful. If a country's currency is undervalued, or "correctly" valued, devaluing the currency is likely to distort the efficient functioning of the market and to reduce global value creation.
1
7
1
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Michael Pettis
about 1 year ago
5/8 At least in the short term (see Rodrik's "infant industry" exception). But in a world of highly unbalanced trade, tariffs can actually improve efficiency if they are designed to counter beggar-thy-neighbor policies and reverse the imbalances.
1
11
2
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Michael Pettis
about 1 year ago
1/8 As always, Dani Rodrik presents a nuanced discussion of tariffs without the hysteria that usually surrounds any such discussion. He notes that "an import tariff is a specific combination of two different policies: a tax on...
add a skeleton here at some point
2
49
17
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Judah Grunstein
about 1 year ago
High-quality and informative discussion between
@drodrik.bsky.social
and
@michaelpettis.bsky.social
on the use cases and effectiveness of tariffs, starting from this piece.
add a skeleton here at some point
1
25
7
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Michael Pettis
about 1 year ago
1/7 It is true that the 1930s were a period of beggar-thy-neighbor trade policies and declining global trade that left the global economy collectively worse off, and that this might hold lessons for us today, but it is important to get the story right.
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
loading . . .
Global Economy Braces for 1930s-Style Unilateralism
China’s decision this week to let its currency weaken against the dollar past a level it had defended for weeks highlights the potential for 2025 to see major tensions over exchange-rate policy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-01-04/world-at-risk-of-return-to-30s-style-unilateralism-new-economy?srnd=phx-economics-v2
3
32
9
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Michael Pettis
about 1 year ago
1/5 NYT: "“Our new approach to trade recognizes people as more than just consumers, but also producers,” Katherine Tai said in a 2023 speech." This is a key point in any serious discussion of US trade or industrial policy.
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/04/u...
loading . . .
How the Democrats Lost the Working Class
The theory seemed sound: Stabilize financial markets, support the poor and promote a more secure, integrated world. But blue-collar workers were left behind.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/04/us/politics/democrats-working-class.html?smid=tw-share
2
20
2
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Vincent Vicard
about 1 year ago
Prochain séminaire compétitivité CEPII-BdF "L’Europe au défi de Trump 2.0" Présentation d'Antoine Bouët et discussion d'Antoine Berthou
@antoineberthou.bsky.social
Mercredi 15 janvier 2025 de 11h à 12h30. Inscriptions ici:
www.banque-france.fr/fr/webform/l...
@cepii-paris.bsky.social
0
9
9
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Ivan Werning
about 1 year ago
0
6
2
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Journal of International Economics
about 1 year ago
Covid-related lockdowns in 2020 reduced international trade beyond their impact through economic activity, suggesting an important increase in trade costs. This paper shows that World trade in 2020 was reduced by 8%–11%. Welfare losses vary between 0.2%–3% across countries. 2/2
0
1
1
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Journal of International Economics
about 1 year ago
Recently at JIE: "Trade under lockdown" by Antoine Berthou (
@antoineberthou.bsky.social
) and Sebastian Stumpner
doi.org/10.1016/j.ji...
1/2
1
2
2
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
NBER
about 1 year ago
The opening of the Suez Canal in 1869 led to a 72 percent relative increase in bilateral exports for affected country pairs and a likely permanent increase in world trade, from David S. Jacks, Christopher M. Meissner, and Nikolaus Wolf
https://www.nber.org/papers/w33250
1
52
22
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Philip A. Luck
about 1 year ago
Excellent summary of the demographic and labor market dynamics in the US over the last 25 years.
econofact.org/immigration-...
loading . . .
Immigration and Waning US Labor Force Growth | Econofact
The growth of the working-age population born in the U.S. has slowed dramatically — particularly among less-educated workers. Has immigration filled the gap?
https://econofact.org/immigration-and-waning-us-labor-force-growth?utm_source=EconoFact+Subscribers&utm_campaign=bf15856529-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_05_21_01_21_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ec9f988e33-bf15856529-
0
3
1
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Paul Krugman
about 1 year ago
Very nice post by Noah Smith about my favorite subject: Me!
www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-paul-k...
loading . . .
How Paul Krugman changed the public face of economics
He's a great economist, but he also changed how we talk about the subject.
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/how-paul-krugman-changed-the-public
32
976
104
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Paul Krugman
about 1 year ago
And the new era begins. My Substack is alive again, and here's my first post
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-fraudu...
loading . . .
The Fraudulence of “Waste, Fraud and Abuse”
History repeats itself, the first time as farce, the second as clown show
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-fraudulence-of-waste-fraud-and
164
4051
1144
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Paul Krugman
about 1 year ago
People have been puzzling over Scott Bessent's claim that tariffs can't be inflationary — which is, by the way, completely different from Trump's claim that foreigners will pay. The thing is, there is a kind of model here — one that is clear, consistent, and totally false 1/
80
1351
311
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Paul Krugman
about 2 years ago
The Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation, measured over 6 mos at an annual rate, has declined from 4.5 to 2.5 over the past 6 months. So, if underlying inflation can fall almost in half without a major rise in unemployment, in what sense was it "underlying"?
7
132
26
reposted by
Antoine Berthou
Paul Krugman
about 2 years ago
If I'm reading the ECB data right, euro area core inflation was 4.1% over the past year, only 3% annualized for the past 6 months. Team Transitory being vindicated over there too
4
113
27
you reached the end!!
feeds!
log in