The 100K fee for H-1B visas (yearly!) is reported as a hit on tech -- but it is a hit on universities. It will make it impossible for us to hire foreign visitors, or foreign scholars into tenure track positions--I think almost 40% of H-1Bs go to universities and university hospitals.

Rule OF law boosts prosperity by applying equally to all, creating a level playing field where resources flow to their best use. Rule BY law lets the powerful twist the state for enrichment, leaving everyone else to pay the price.

Watching this video 10 times has significantly improved my mood.

Commentary discussing same issue: www.csis.org/analysis/how...

The new proposed tariff on semiconductors could raise the cost of AI servers by as much as 75 percent, disrupting data center economics and pricing smaller firms out of frontier AI development. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0qT...

Watch me awkwardly explain how the U.S. is racing to build the infrastructure for AI dominance, spending over $70 billion each quarter, but new tariffs on semiconductors could make this much more expensive. www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0qT... @csis.org

Today's "strategic" trade tools become tomorrow's immovable fiscal fixtures. I saw this firsthand in last admin. Despite knowing they were poorly designed, we were unable to eliminate *ANY* 301 tariffs Trump 1.0. Once tariffs become industry protection, they develop their own political constituency.

Trying something new. Is US trade policy driving partners to the PRC? youtu.be/Jhs4w_OJn8c?...

Trump’s trade strategy is taking shape— EU deal adds to a flurry of new frameworks. New analysis w/ Ina Simonovska. Uniform tariffs could raise U.S. GDP by 2.2%. Retaliation could cut it by 5.3%. The admin must design policy carefully to avoid self-harm: www.csis.org/analysis/tru...

🚨 We're hiring! The @CSIS Economics Program is looking for a paid Fall 2025 intern in DC. Great chance to work on trade, tech, and economic security issues at the heart of U.S. strategy. Apply by Aug 9 👉 careers.csis.org/opportunitie... #EconTwitter #PolicyJobs #Internship

Honored to join #LesRencontresEconomiques to discuss immigration—its economic realities and the enduring political appeal of denying them. Durable myths fuel polarization and stall the policies we need for broad-based growth. My essay for the event: www.lesrencontreseconomiques.fr/en/debats-id...

LFG!

Surprised I can still be surprised, but seriously WTF…

This is the news I need.

The ethane export controls reveal a troubling pattern: assumption-based policymaking without rigorous analysis. Before weaponizing trade, the US must do cost-benefit analysis. Economic statecraft requires forethought, not improvisation. 🧵👇 My latest @CSIS analysis: www.csis.org/analysis/eth...

🛑 Who really writes U.S. trade rules—the president or Congress? CSIS breaks down a pivotal court ruling that may reshape the balance of power in U.S. trade policy. A must-read question piece: www.csis.org/analysis/wha...

Random Friday Thought: New socks are amazing and highly underrated. If socially acceptable, I would make socks a one and done clothing item.

Worried about seemingly ever growing tensions between the US and PRC? You should be.

The U.S. faces a credibility test as its debt challenges mount. Moody’s downgrade is more than symbolic. Today, the US spends about the same amount on defence as on interest payments on its debt. Dive into the CSIS analysis: www.csis.org/analysis/moo... @csis.org

See my first piece in @lawfaremedia.org 👇

2/2 Latvia expresses solidarity with the Crimean Tatar people and strongly condemns the human rights violations committed by Russia in Crimea since its illegal annexation in 2014. #CrimeaIsUkraine 🇺🇦

This administration should start considering the consumer.

😑

Really fun conversation with the brilliant Scott Kennedy.

Following the 90 day pause in U.S.-China tariffs, CSIS's Scott Kennedy, @philuck.bsky.social and @handrewschwartz.bsky.social discuss the suspension in trade measures and what might come next in an emergency episode of The Truth of the Matter. Listen to the conversation:

Tariff rollbacks mark a welcome step that could help ease inflation and bolster economic prospects, but do not undo the damage already done by elevated costs, disrupted supply chains, heightened uncertainty, and weakened U.S. credibility with allies. www.csis.org/analysis/und...

It’s official: the U.S. economy shrank in Q1 2025. For context—Q4 2024 growth was 2.4%. Trump was inaugurated about a third of the way through Q1. And ‘liberation day’? That came in Q2...buckle up. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/30/b...

At least three citizens under the age of 10 have been deported from the U.S. without due process. This should shock everyone, regardless of how you feel about any particular immigration policy. www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/...

Without due process, the administration has now deported multiple U.S. citizens. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/25/u...

Read the latest commentary, "The Hidden Risk of Rising U.S.-PRC Tensions: Export Control Symbiosis," by @philuck.bsky.social, to understand how the U.S. can avoid escalating an export control war with China.

"As the United States considers future controls, it should carefully assess the risks to itself and its partners of a China increasingly willing and able to proactively leverage its own export controls against U.S. interests." Read more from @philuck.bsky.social ⤵️

As tensions between the US and PRC rise, we don’t just risk higher prices on imported goods. PRC export controls on critical minerals are part of a broader competition over the rules that govern trade in critical goods. www.csis.org/analysis/hid...

Excellent work by @washingtonpost.com. Tariffs are not only still high, the effective tariff rate is actually *higher*

Yields on U.S. Treasuries rose Wednesday as investors sold government bonds, usually a haven. In Britain, a sustained version of that trend in 2022 led to the downfall of Liz Truss, the country's shortest-serving prime minister.

When you’re wrong on the facts and an asshole all at the same time. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...

There is plenty of uncertainty about what tariff rates will look like tomorrow. But one thing is clear; uncertainty will remain high and will harm the U.S. and global economy. www.csis.org/analysis/unc... @csis.org

woops

On the latest episode of The Eurofile, @erep.csis.org experts @maxbergmann.bsky.social and Donatienne Ruy welcome CSIS Economics Program expert @philuck.bsky.social to discuss a looming transatlantic trade fight. Listen:

In the third issue of Back & Forth, Nick Kumleben, @philuck.bsky.social, and Andrea Palazzi debate the efficacy of sanctions as a tool of economic statecraft, especially those aimed at Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Read here: tinyurl.com/vfxvawra

Today in Nobody Wins a Trade War: nypost.com/2025/03/15/w...

Once again trade helps us solve problems caused by policy incompetence at home. Just like when New Zealand bailed us out when we had a shortage of bay formula.

The United States has asked Denmark and other European nations if they can export eggs to USA as Americans face surging egg prices

The Russian economy of three years ago no longer exists. Any rapprochement with Russia that eases sanctions without addressing its newfound war-driven economic model would risk profound destabilization. @csis.org www.csis.org/analysis/how...

The U.S. plans to reimpose global tariffs on steel and aluminum—but will they actually solve the longstanding problem of China’s market-distorting policies? Not likely. Evan Brown and I argue that any durable solution must be multilateral. www.csis.org/analysis/us-...

Elon Musk is terrorizing employees of US government and disrupting their activities, not cutting spending. "Since Donald Trump took office...outlays have averaged $30bn a day. Compare that with the same period last year under Joe Biden:...$26bn a day." www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Excellent quick-turn analysis by one of the best out there. @kylemeng.com finds U.S. steel prices will rise by 8.2%, causing significant impacts on industries that use steel (e.g. autos, construction, manufacturing, other transportation…). Whether or not they notice, this will cost Americans a lot.

High-tech services are critical to our competition with the PRC, but it is important to remember that our current strength in these industries is a product of the wise investments the United States made in the past. Today’s policy choices will shape our economy for years to come.

The production of services is a critical and underappreciated front in the economic competition between the United States and China. Instead of 19th-century protectionism, we need to prioritize market-friendly, pro-talent, pro-innovation policies. www.csis.org/analysis/bey...

My colleagues at USAID are highly competent, centrist, and profoundly patriotic. That includes the ninety nine USAID public servants who have given their lives while serving this country. Americans with the full range of political opinions about foreign aid reject poisonous, ignorant lies.

Here is United States law regarding the President's attempts to close our development assistance agency in secret over the weekend. It is illegal. No ambiguity. Americans decide with their actions, today, if the US is a country of laws or—something else. —> crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...