#JECO2025 𝘓𝘢 #𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘴𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 à 𝘭’é𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘶𝘷𝘦 𝘥𝘦 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘱 @vvicard.bsky.social (CEPII) @mathildedupre.bsky.social (Institut Veblen) @pierrehaski.bsky.social (France Inter) Eric Monnet (EHESS, PSE) @kevinhorourke.bsky.social (CNRS, Sciences-Po) www.youtube.com/live/IScMgL5... @les-jeco.bsky.social #econsky

Congratulations to CAGE Impact Director @dennisnovy.bsky.social on his appointment to the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office as the lead economic adviser to the Foreign Secretary on the UK’s foreign and international development policy.

For anyone who's published a book. (Source: www.alcs.co.uk/news/the-lat...)

Absurd, and embarrassing for the country. If there is a 1930s analogy for today’s German rearmament, it would be British rearmament in the face of Nazi aggression in Europe. Not everyone in Ireland was on the British side then and not everyone in Ireland is on the Ukrainian and European side now.

Europe will retaliate by talking a lot.

Sometimes it's nice to remember that even Marcus Aurelius was like "you don't have to comment on everything bro"

Very useful discussion on the perils of using micro/cross-sectional parameter estimates in inferring the aggregate effects of policies/shocks. This is pervasive in Economics, yet the two effects can even have the opposite signs. (Example in next post.) voxdev.org/topic/method...

A tragic piece of news. Conor Gearty FBA was a wonderful human being, as kind as he was brilliant, thoughtful, self-deprecating and witty; a man of dialogue and convictions, always ready to listen, and one who had much to give the world.

Hands off Bradley. We need good managers making our domestic league internationally competitive.

Countries that don’t invest in the basics — coaching, training facilities, pathways for young players, domestic leagues — have no right to expect that they will do well in international football competitions #Ireland #worldcup #FAI

If the EP were to vote down this preposterous and illegal "deal" it would among other things mean that the Commission could credibly tell partners that there are limits to what is politically possible in Europe.

A regulatory superpower that can’t even regulate itself (if true)

The reality that Europe must acknowledge, in Ukraine and the transatlantic relationship open.substack.com/pub/billemmo...

We are deeply saddened to hear that former Finn Harps, Galway United and Fanad United coach Ollie Horgan has passed away. 💙 A massive loss for Irish football. 😢

One of the main benefits of doing a US PhD is the extra time you get, that's one of the big reasons I advised my students to apply for US programmes. We offer a four year degree here, there'd be no advantage over us. The US is euthanising its massive advantage in research for no good reason.

If anyone is in position to know, she is. So: you can’t be a little bit sovereign, if you want to be the master in your own house you need to be sovereign across the board. That’s the agenda, and it has to start with Russia’s defeat in Ukraine. Time to massively scale up the Danish model

„We have a land war on European continent. We are fully dependent on US. None of the EU members was ready to risk further escalation“. The way @sabineweyand.bsky.social explains EU-US-deal is exactly right. She explains EU‘s trade-offs & rationale — and doesn‘t put lipstick on a pig. (SZ-Dossier)

📢 New initiative: we are launching a monthly virtual seminar in French Economic History to share and discuss the latest research in the field! 🌍 Open to all interested in #econhist. 👉 Info & updates: sites.google.com/view/vwfhe/h...

So much for the certainty that rewarding Trump for breaking the law provided us with. Show a bully that you’re weak and he’ll walk all over you. on.ft.com/3JzL772

Norwegians decide on the Nobel Peace Prize. They suffered under Nazi occupation. Nazi occupation was not peace. Russian occupation is not peace. Perhaps someone should explain this to Mr Trump.

This is a moment of truth for Europe. If our leaders don’t act to defend our vital interests there is no point in complaining about the failure of others to do so.

If the argument is that the EU had no choice in the trade talks but to reward the US for breaking the law, because we need its security support, then a consequence should be that if the US takes Russia’s side in demanding that Ukraine give up land, then all bets will be off as regards trade.

Economic history has lost one of its greats.

UK academics studying topics sensitive to China face harassment, survey finds – The Guardian: ‘reported instances of harassment from colleagues and pressure from university administrators related to the financial consequences of damaging relations with China.’

If this is accurate, then unless the EU eliminates all tariffs on industrial imports from all its WTO partners, it will be joining Trump in destroying the international trade rules that have applied since WW2. The difference being that while Trump hates the rule-based order the EU claims to value it

Correct headline today: EU endorses the drive-by killing of the postwar rules-based trading system and the most-favoured-nation principle.

Presumably the EU, as the great great promoter of international rules that we know it is, will offer these 0% tariffs to all WTO members?

My latest on the spectacularly one-sided EU-US trade deal.

Establishing a reputation for being a pushover, unwilling to bear costs in order to promote one’s interests, is also a threat to our physical security in a dangerous world. I suspect some citizens also intuitively understand this.

These two are some of the very rare good takes I've seen so far.

In the face of the most blatant trade coercion since at least 1945, the EU has failed to even activate its anti-coercion instrument, designed, as the name indicates, precisely for this purpose. It has let down trading partners less able to stand up to Trump's bullying and weakened multilateralism. 8

So if I understand correctly the EU is making concessions so that the US can illegally charge it a base tariff rate 5% higher than that facing the UK? So much for European negotiating strength and EU commitment to the multilateral system @martinsandbu.ft.com @alanbeattie.bsky.social

Another good piece by @alanbeattie.bsky.social . www.ft.com/content/2b92...

Can cooperative institutions be sustained if no-one is willing to incur costs in order to punish those breaking the rules? It doesn't seem (to date) that the international community is particularly committed to the rules that have governed trade since WW2. www.ft.com/content/82e3...

New KWP: Sanctions hurt - but not equally. @schularick.bsky.social, @kevinhorourke.bsky.social et al show: countries w/ undiversified exports, develop. economies, & EU financial hubs are most exposed to economic coercion. Drastic measures work - half-measures don’t 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...

📢 #CallForPapers To honour the memory of Ghazala Azmat, the Economics Department of SciencesPo is creating an award in her name. Junior researchers can submit a paper in economics of discrimination, gender, education & organizational #economics. Submit by 31 August. cepr.org/events/ghaza... #EconSky

I hope the headline is inaccurate since if our business and political leaders are shocked by something so predictable then that is actually very worrying.

If you are strong, but don't want to use your strength for fear of getting hurt, then you are in fact weak. Not the right signal to send in a dangerous world. www.ft.com/content/9b77...

Has anyone suggested what might be the most logical, and also most easily understood and pedagogical, response to Trump’s tariffs? Namely, if the USA defaults on its MFN obligations to others, then others should withdraw MFN status from the USA?

A nice tribute to Peter Neary by Patrick Honohan and Cormac Ó Gráda: www.ucd.ie/economics/t4... #econsky

If you are strong, but don't want to use your strength for fear of getting hurt, then you are in fact weak. Not the right signal to send in a dangerous world. www.ft.com/content/9b77...

This is an important new paper and a great example of how getting the facts right can shape our views of what matters in history #econhist www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

@kevinhorourke.bsky.social writes about the history of the US commitment to non-discrimination in #trade through bitter lessons learned about aggressive retaliation and discusses how the #tariffs of the second Trump administration contrast starkly with that history. cepr.org/publications... #EconSky

If you're getting notifications from Academia(.)edu about AI versions of your papers now being podcasts, that's because the (predatory) platform has opted you into AI-enhanced outputs, which you can turn off in your Account Settings here.

@kevinhorourke.bsky.social & Roger Vicquery introduce a new index of global exchange rate fixity and find that global anchoring to the US dollar fell sharply after 1971, and global exchange rate fixity is now only about one-third of the Bretton Woods level. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

🧵1/4 🚨 We have finalized our DID textbook! You’ve run out of excuses for sketchy pre-trends and mysterious TWFE coefficients. 📘 Credible Answers to Hard Questions: Differences-in-Differences for Natural Experiments By Chaisemartin & D’Haultfœuille. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

New ebook on the economic consequences of Trump: cepr.org/system/files...