This new paper outlines a strategy for avoiding major war in the race to AGI:

Going to NPT RevCon tomorrow thru Friday. Would love to catch up with folks! Also please come check out my side event ⬇️

crowd at the Tisza rally singing "Europa! Europa!"

“forward deterrence as a political gesture or a meaningful survivability measure depends on dispersing only the jets because w/out the warheads it is unlikely to generate substantial operational and deterrence benefits in a crisis” Well done @frankkuhn.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2026/04/disp...

The $27.44 billion FY27 request for NNSA weapons activities is $3.18 billion (or 13%) more than the FY26 enacted level and $6.1 billion (or 29%) more than the FY25 projection for FY27. There wasnt a FY26 FYNSP, but as of FY25 weapons wasn't slated to exceed $27 billion til FY34.

How are those security guarantees looking to, well, everyone?

I depressingly think this might become the new normal in 'multipolarity'. minimal boots on the ground, no even pretense at nation building, just an occasional 'fuck you' bombing campaign that kills top leadership and has the explicit intent of destabilization.

Interesting: "Sweden has had very early discussions with France and the United Kingdom about possible nuclear weapons cooperation, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has revealed." breakingdefense.com/2026/01/swed...

New @rand.org report on biosecurity: Protecting Biological Materials and Services from Misuse: Opportunities for Access Monitoring and Control www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

An overview of how the new EU-Canada SDP fits in with sister agts: a mix of UK/Nor and Japan/ROK PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic142 Full text synopsis: bit.ly/EUSDPs @ukandeu.bsky.social

Good morning. With the addition of 4 tankers out of New Jersey, there are now at least 32 tankers observed in the overnight group. A considerable portion went to Morón Air Base in Spain, with others on to UK, Germany, Italy and 1 to Estonia. A few pressed on to CENTCOM AOR.

"It isn’t very important which tactical nuclear option we choose – F-35A, a French style standoff weapon, or Tomahawk. What is important is that we choose at least one and get it into service." www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06...

The Ministry of Defence has published its intent to award a 15-year, £2.9 billion contract to Thales UK Limited for the in-service support of a wide range of maritime sensors used across the Royal Navy’s surface ships and submarines. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/mod-plans-hu...

@floriangalleri.bsky.social and my latest for @warontherocks.bsky.social. We argue that the French nuclear doctrine is at a crossroads: ambiguity, sufficiency, final warning and other concepts should be debated for a bigger French role in European deterrence warontherocks.com/2025/05/ever...

🏆 To celebrate the arrival of my "Littoral Commander: Baltics" #wargame, I am going to give away a signed copy of the game. Like, repost, and follow by April 8 (midnight EST)! May the odds be ever in your favor. 😉🎲 #wargaming

Now that Washington is potentially an unreliable ally, the UK needs to revisit its nuclear strategy. But going it alone is costly, and partnering with France poses its own risks.

☢️ In a new European survey, more than 60 percent of respondents agree that “France's nuclear deterrent must be extended to all members of the European Union” #nukesky legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/03/2...

🚨 Just in: Ursula von der Leyen unveils the "Rearm Europe Plan" to mobilise up to €800 billion in defence investment across the bloc. "We're living in the most momentum and dangerous of times," she says. "We are in an era of rearmament." "This is the moment for Europe. We're ready to step up."

Yes. As a ballpark figure, it makes sense: to the 2% baseline add 0.5% to replace US stopping aid to Ukraine, another 0.5% to reach NATO capability goals with USA still in Europe, and 0.5%-plus to do same after Americans leave. Hence a 3.5% goal pushing towards 4%

Happy Caturday

Quite a big deal from NATO’s official contrarian: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan: “We are in favor of Ukraine becoming a NATO member. This was the statement from our President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, so this is our official position.”

See my latest for @lawfare.bsky.social !

Maybe we finally get that “strategic dialogue” proposed by France at the public level

“We need to have discussions with both the British and the French — the two European nuclear powers — about whether nuclear sharing, or at least nuclear security from the U.K. and France, could also apply to us” www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Norway and the UK are working on a new defense agreement, to enhance strategic cooperation, more joint training and exercises, and further enhanced intelligence cooperation. The Norwegian Defence Minister calls the new agreement ambitious. www.nrk.no/tromsogfinnm...

Europe not on the table, but on the menu

Ukraine is getting nothing concrete. No security guarantees from the US of any value, no NATO membership, even it seems, no promise of future US aid for Ukraine. Maybe those rose tinted spectacles need to be removed.

Moving the goalposts confirmed: “Hegseth also echoed calls by President Donald Trump for allies to increase their defense spending to 5% of their GDP, instead of 2%, saying the latter is “not enough.”” amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/02/...

On AUKUS: "Hegseth said President Donald J. Trump is very familiar with the agreement and equally supportive of it." www.defense.gov/News/News-St...

Come watch me, @lindedesma.bsky.social, Vhaire Gudgeon and Zoey Young talk alliances and strategy—I’ll be talking about 🇫🇷🇬🇧 cooperation vis a vis 🇨🇳

France24: French defence minister says first Mirage 2000 fighter jets delivered to Ukraine www.france24.com/en/europe/20...

The German Green party - currently in charge of Foreign Affairs - just released its election manifesto and they have come a LONG way with respect to nukes ☢️ Nuclear sharing is now named as a pillar of security. Joining the TPNW should only happen as a joint effort (which I read as including all NWS)

𝚂̶𝚞̶𝚋̶ COMMITTEE! Finally! 👏🏻 Now on to the Council… www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/pres...

German Greens election programmes 2021: “The NATO 2% target, which is not based on skills& capabilities, does not provide an answer to this and we therefore reject it” 2025: “This requires a defense budget… that permanently invests significantly more than 2%/GDP in our security&defense capability”

Government responses reflect a broader strategy to rebuild and strengthen European defence partnerships post-Brexit. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/?p=55818

#NEW: PONI's 2024 Nuclear Scholars explore shifts in states’ nuclear arsenals and strategies, the effects of the Ukraine war on nuclear dynamics, and the transformative power of emerging tech on nuclear decisionmaking. Read from 19 of our next-gen scholars here: www.csis.org/analysis/hor...

🚨I am delighted to share my latest piece in @twqgw.bsky.social where I examine three competing US visions for NATO burden-sharing. While many in the US want better burden-sharing, their motivations vary quite a bit. And this matters! www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.... Thread (1/6)

I highly recommend Ed's piece on the Joint Expeditionary Force. His piece & mine carnegieendowment.org/research/202... reach many of the same conclusions, on resources, closer integration w NATO, & developing relations w Germany & Poland as the Baltic Sea littoral states not included in the JEF.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, declared the world is entering a "third nuclear age," defined by proliferating technologies, geopolitical competition, and an erosion of longstanding security frameworks. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/?p=55080

📖 Ravie de publier un article sur le signalement stratégique dans le dernier n° de Politique étrangère @ifri.bsky.social ! Essentielles à la crédibilité de la #dissuasion, ces manœuvres sont dévoyées par certains États afin de répandre la terreur. Comment faire la part des choses ? La réponse ici ⤵️

Behold, a somewhat approved translation of the Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence are now available: www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_p... #NukeSky

Japan, U.K. and Italy to invite Saudi Arabia to next-gen fighter project asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Def... via @nikkeiasia.bsky.social

⚓️ Envie de contribuer à la réflexion stratégique française sur les enjeux maritimes ? D’être invité•e au plus prestigieux événement français sur ces questions ? 🖊️ Participez au prix Amiral Castex 2025, organisé par le @cesmmarine.bsky.social et @ifri.bsky.social ! www.ifri.org/fr/appel-par...

We need some help next month in our newsroom. A couple of weeks of contract work, reporting with our team covering the military. Beats will vary. It's a role that has been performed to perfection in the past by Kelsey Baker, Rachel Nostrant and others. Email me [email protected]

Gave some thoughts to BI’s Tom Porter on Trump’s Ukraine peace hopes www.businessinsider.com/trump-might-...

There are three possibilities: not an ICBM, an ICBM but Russia hasn’t notified the US (and China?), an ICBM and Russia has notified the US (and China?). We’ll find out soon enough

Putin signed the updated version of the basic principles of nuclear deterrence publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/000... Thread with big and small changes in RU with my comments 1/