Let's roll: Fresh STRATDELA issue! 1dkv.substack.com/p/stratdela-38

🚨 Delighted to share that I’ve just signed with Oxford University Press to write my next book: looking at how ideas about Western civilisation shape (and are shaped by) the design and use of military technology.

Let's roll: Fresh STRATDELA issue! 1dkv.substack.com/p/stratdela-38

Latest STRATDELA issue deployed, everyone. Enjoy.

My friends from CENESS are launching a great webinar series on Russia's Nuclear Policy. #NukeSky

My friends from CENESS are launching a great webinar series on Russia's Nuclear Policy. #NukeSky

Latest STRATDELA issue deployed, everyone. Enjoy.

I can imagine that some folks dislike Substack, so just in case: medium.com/p/2ac369e89b43

Contributed to this @newsweek.com piece: www.newsweek.com/trump-putin-...

Some broader thoughts on Post-INF Post-Moratorium by yours truly: russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics...

Excellent new analysis. Practical steps that these two leaders can actually take. None of them would diminish their power. All of them would make the world safer. By @sahilshah.bsky.social and @dvsteff.bsky.social. www.politico.com/news/magazin...

Link: open.substack.com/pub/1dkv/p/s...

Posting this for no apparent reason.

The latest STRATDELA Special deployed to your mailboxes. You might guess the topic.

The latest STRATDELA Special deployed to your mailboxes. You might guess the topic.

Contributed to this @newsweek.com piece: www.newsweek.com/trump-putin-...

How Stanley Kubrick’s film “Dr. Strangelove” exposed dangers inherent in nuclear command-and-control systems.

Bastion coastal missile system launcher is one beautiful beast. Photos by Lex Kitaev from the July Storm Russian Navy exercise at the Kaliningrad region.

Haven’t been on much. Not easy these days. @dvsteff.bsky.social is one of my favorite people - was fortunate to meet him a few months ago. Hope this thread makes folks calmer. He also has an amazing gif game and a brilliant sense of American cartoons.

The U.S. Army 3rd Multi-Domain Task Force deployed a Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) system outside of the continental United States for the first time, deploying it to the Northern Territory, Australia in support of Talisman Sabre 25 on July 9, 2025. www.dvidshub.net/news/544614/...

Until reading our obituary, I didn’t know that Tom Lehrer had worked at the NSA for two years in the 1950s. Why did we never get the great cryptology pastiche? www.economist.com/obituary/202...

Murka sleeps instead of shitposting. Be like Murka.

New nuclear crisis for the weekend? Thoughts. 1. "Nuclear submarines" can refer to any type of nuclear submarine - SSN, SSGN, SSBN. 2. No need to worry too much about Trump's statements. After all, in 2017 he also claimed that he had sent two nuclear submarines to the Korean peninsula.

New START was not discussed during Lavrov-Rubio meeting in Kuala Lumpur yesterday, per Lavrov. #NukeSky

BRICS Rio de Janeiro Declaration: brics.br/en/documents...

"...the B-21 is put together by bartenders, babysitters, and baristas" Actually a very interesting piece: www.airandspaceforces.com/northrop-ind... Kind of obvious, but still good.

OK, after reporting this out, I've got a few final thoughts on the B-2 strike on Fordo and whether the MOPs got through. I think there's some really interesting details that have emerged and clarified my thinking... 🧵 www.npr.org/2025/06/25/n...

🧵Buying nuclear capable planes from the US🇺🇸 to drop the latest US nuclear bombs is a retrograde step from the UK🇬🇧, which gave up its air launched weapons in '98. This is also a breach of the legal commitments to pursue nuclear disarmament under the #NPT. More here: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Look who's here.

Tune in to the 11th Primakov Readings: vkvideo.ru/video-211254... Session on a multipolar nuclear order in 1:10.

There are 10 nuclear weapons worth of material (60% HEU) out of control and the IAEA doesn't know where it is. It should be the major concern and crisis as I say here. www.nonproarchive.com/article/2025...

B-2 bombers on their way to the Pacific? Eight tankers lined up in two groups seemingly to refuel the B-2s after takeoff from Whiteman AFB. First tanker group returning to Altus AFB. Assuming spares in each group, perhaps 4-6 bombers?

References to "tactical" nuclear weapons in this otherwise great @theguardian.com story by @hugolowell.bsky.social are misleading. The US would drop a strategic B61-11 nuclear earth penetrator with a yield of 300 or 400 kilotons. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were 15 and 21 kt.

Today in 1962—on the first attempt to conduct the high-altitude Starfish nuclear test above Johnston Island—a Thor missile and its 1.4-Megaton W49 warhead were deliberately destroyed 65 seconds after launch due to engine failure. Plutonium-contaminated debris fell on and around nearby Sand Island.

Today in 1963—only eight months after the Cuban Missile Crisis—the United States and the Soviet Union signed a memorandum of understanding in Geneva to establish a direct communication link or “hotline” between Washington and Moscow. Contrary to popular belief, it was never a telephone.

Good report from AWE Aldermaston struggling to deliver Astraea warhead. Although a bit funny that it doesn't mention neither cooperation with the US nor with France. Of course the name of A21 is not mentioned as well. news.sky.com/story/inside...

Angara-A5 launch photos from Roscosmos.

"Three minutes, a football and a biscuit," writes @mknight.bsky.social, a senior research associate at @scientistsorg.bsky.social. "These are all a president of the United States needs to start nuclear war."

As many people noted, it wasn't that bad in the original German... The problem, of course, nobody listens to interviews (in German) these days. It's the soundbite that goes around (see attached). And, of course, people see what's being and not being done by governments

Angara-A5 heavy SLV w/ military payload launch from Plesetsk earlier today. Quite impressive. Video via RU MoD.

This should be interesting - as I understand it, the commission was able to get the Pentagon to tell them something about targeting. It won't be in the public report, I guess, but the results should reflect it. It will be webcast at www.nationalacademies.org/event/45265_...

Someone asked me about the Osirak bombing in 1981 - wasn't it a good thing? I'm not quite sure. Imagine if Israel and allies would mobilize states to impose strong IAEA controls, push for early development of AP, that kind of thing. Everybody would have gained from stronger institution.

(sad)

Dropping a nuclear weapon from a strategic bomber against a strategic target is not very "tactical."

Alexei Likhachev, Rosatom: "IAEA, despite its peak workload, including those related to mil. operations, has found its role in new conflicts and has been able to overcome these challenges of the new world, maintaining its agenda and role as a single integrator of nuclear powers..."

If the US intervenes in the Israel-Iran war, then the Pacific slips to second priority and Europe third? Though the US does seem to be relying quite a bit on Europe as a logistical hub for the Middle East.

Israel is running low on defensive Arrow interceptors, raising concern about the country’s ability to counter long-range ballistic missiles from Iran if the conflict isn’t resolved soon www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Why Isn’t #Russia Defending #Iran? Russia is not happy about Iran’s humiliation at the hands of Israel, a US ally. But when it comes to shaping events far from its borders, Russia is only so able. My essay in @theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

Some LGM-35A theories/questions. 1. There might be different priorities in terms of payload development given the almost forgotten increased throw weight. a) Single traditional RV with enhanced BMD penetration aids b) MIRV c) MaRV/HGV d) penetrators for hardened targets e) SOUTH POLE/FOBS