🚨 JUST IN: Israel has long employed a strategy for dealing with nearby hostile groups, sometimes called "mowing the grass." That's not a strategy that will contain Iran's nuclear program, @nicholasgrossman.bsky.social tells Bulletin editor @mattyfield.bsky.social. thebulletin.org/2025/06/why-...

A privilege to speak with the bulletin about Iran, the missing HEU and next step in international diplomacy. thebulletin.org/2025/06/the-...

And indeed Grossi calls for this in the UNSC meeting

It's time for the IAEA to get access to the facilities. US and Israel should agree with Grossi to conduct no further attacks on nuclear facilities. Maybe this will be discussed at the upcoming Security Council meeting.

I just wrote a quick piece that i'd encourage you to read and share: Eyes on the Clock - What Comes Next for Iran’s Nuclear Program I focus on the HEU, the potential for Iran to withdraw from the NPT & prospects for UN snapback. We have till October. www.nonproarchive.com/article/2025...

I just wrote a quick piece that i'd encourage you to read and share: Eyes on the Clock - What Comes Next for Iran’s Nuclear Program I focus on the HEU, the potential for Iran to withdraw from the NPT & prospects for UN snapback. We have till October. www.nonproarchive.com/article/2025...

Images of fordow suggest hit with possibility of significant damage. To be clear, though, Iran had enough 60% HEU to produce 90% for 10 nuclear weapons in days at fordow. That enrichment could continue at small site in weeks. HEU must be dealt with.

My last job in UK government was watching Iran building these damned facilities, including fordow and trying to stop them getting equipment and material from around the world. End of a chapter. But it's not over. Need to deal with HEU. Then what comes next.

See the bulletin on this, but let me say it more concisely. radiation release is not an issue for Natanz or Fordow. They are not nuclear reactors.

I just did a quick update to the Live Situation Briefing: The Iran Nuclear Program page here nonproarchive.com/article/2025.... New headline assessment. We must track, verify and dispose of the 400+ kgs of 60% HEU.

The US has struck Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan. Eyes on the prize, folks, there are 400kgs of 60% HEU out of international verification. It must be accounted for and disposed of. www.nonproarchive.com/article/2025...

I am now maintaining an article containing a live situation briefing on the status of Iran's nuclear program in the context of Israel's strikes. I'll update this to include more depth and new information as things transpire. I will also post updates on X & here www.nonproarchive.com/article/2025...

The HEU issue must be addressed. Iran says it won't give up enrichment or negotiate in conflict. Possibility is interim 1 month agrmnt in which US does not strike while Iran provides IAEA access to nuclear sites and materials, HEU moved out of Fordow & no enrichment beyond 5%.

🚨 JUST IN: I break down the risks of striking Iran’s nuclear sites. What could go wrong? In @thebulletin.org thebulletin.org/2025/06/the-... #Iran #Natanz #Fordow #Israel #proliferation #nuclearweapons #nukesky

There are 10 nuclear weapons worth of material (60% HEU) out of control and the IAEA doesn't know where it is. It should be the major concern and crisis as I say here. www.nonproarchive.com/article/2025...

🚨 JUST IN: UK considers reintroducing air-launched tactical nuclear weapons But an air-launched tactical nuclear weapon capability would not address short-term security concerns of the UK and Europe, @ian-j-stewart.bsky.social writes. In @thebulletin.org thebulletin.org/2025/06/uk-c... #nukesky

Anyone able to recommend a cursor like tool for word documents?

What is General Kellogg's view of how to end the conflict in Ukraine? Here's Grok's summary

ATC recordings: youtu.be/uaDYV9IxJLo?...

Given the reports a couple of weeks ago about Russia smuggling explosives on cargo aircraft to disrupt shipments, there's going to be a lot of suspicion about this. Wait for the investigation. www.reuters.com/business/aer... www.nbcnews.com/news/world/r...

We had the wonderful experience of welcoming our second kid to our family recently. We also had the very American experience of getting an $82k hospital bill. UK healthcare is very different! (We are fortunate to have insurance)

Interesting tweet here from Urenco. new US administration needs to focus on nuclear supply chains in a similar way Biden admin with chips. There's currently major question around mined uranium, enrichment and fuel manufacture capabilities at a time when nuclear is coming back in vogue. #nukesky

They are also advertising a 3* role to oversee this. Vital and important position.

The new nuclear "Basic Principles" just dropped (h/t @dvsteff.bsky.social). The key change is that it's the aggression that "poses critical threat to the sovereignty and/or territorial integrity" instead of "puts the very existence of the state in jeopardy" publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/000...

If you are a researcher in DC working on semiconductor supply chain / chips issues, i'd like to connect!

For folks interested in Trump admin / nuclear issues, i'm thinking of doing threads (and maybe posts) on each of the major questions about Trump admin policy. Is there interest? Maybe building off this www.nonproarchive.com/article/2024...

A useful little tool for you on Bluesky. Adding /rss to the end of any page containing a list of posts will turn it into an RSS feed that you can embed in your website, or whatever. For example, my profile RSS is bsky.app/profile/did:...

If you are a nonproliferation or arms control researcher who follows me and who I haven't yet followed please like this post.

For those interested in how Trump admin may view arms control type issues. Biden admin invited outsiders to demonstrate no prohibited nuclear weapons tests are underway so that others wouldn't be compelled to test and to put normative pressure on Russia and China to follow norms.

We will presumably see an exchange of letters between trump and Kim before 20 Jan too.

Here for nukes, osint, export controls, sanctions, and international security. Looking forward discussion and network building!

The unclassified US nuclear employment report is out. I'm not sure it contains much that's new, although it does highlight the need to deter Russia, China and North Korea. media.defense.gov/2024/Nov/15/... When I read US documents like this, I always wonder what a UK version would look like...

There's many important policy questions for a new Trump admin, especially regarding China. In DC, there’s near consensus that China is the main security challenge. The previous Trump admin focused on economic measures (tariffs), while Biden prioritized export controls on key tech (e.g., chips).

There's many important policy questions for a new Trump admin, especially regarding China. In DC, there’s near consensus that China is the main security challenge. The previous Trump admin focused on economic measures (tariffs), while Biden prioritized export controls on key tech (e.g., chips).

Will the US conduct a nuclear test before 2030? This Metaculus poll predates election and suggests a 5% chance. Today, I would put the odds higher - maybe 30%. There are practical challenges which is why its not higher. What would your estimate be? @nukesky www.metaculus.com/questions/45...

Interesting LLM use case suggested by @maxkossek.bsky.social which seems to work quite well. Asking Grok about the policies of specific Trump appointees / potential appointees. It even looks up their tweet history!

What will a second Trump Administration mean for the nuclear order? This is a complex question. One way we may be able to consider it is through prediction and forecasting. Will you help? I have collated a list of questions from existing Metaculus polls. www.nonproarchive.com/article/2024...

More from my archives: a FOIA response from the CIA. 1960 Soviet report translation “Combat Against Enemy Nuclear Artillery, Free Rockets, and Guided Missiles in Offensive and Defensive Operations of an Army”. The report is about destruction of US/NATO theater nuclear weapons.

For those interested in how Trump admin may view arms control type issues. Biden admin invited outsiders to demonstrate no prohibited nuclear weapons tests are underway so that others wouldn't be compelled to test and to put normative pressure on Russia and China to follow norms.

Any new president has a meaningful opportunity to press for pause on several international crisis. Probably applies more so to Trump than Harris since Biden wasn't talking to Putin or Kim. Standstill agreements can buy time for much needed diplomacy. More focus needed on how to maximize opportunity.

Here for nukes, osint, export controls, sanctions, and international security. Looking forward discussion and network building!