We’re living in times of uncertainty, so during the holiday season we should focus on what grounds us - our loved ones and what supports us through the year. Happy holidays to everyone.

The most memorable shots in photography are the ones you have in your viewfinder, but don’t quite catch.

Finland 1939 vs. Ukraine 2022. Soviet forces invaded Finland on 30 Nov 1939, while claiming not to threaten Finnish sovereignty. The Soviet goal was to march into Helsinki & seize control. The attempt was stopped by fierce resistance, much like the march into Kyiv in 2022.

Let's zoom out from the drones. What Europe needs to counter the Russia threat is robust intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities, and credible military power with defense production that could sustain it through war. Early warning and capability to disrupt and deter.

New research publication by Finnish National Defence University: 'An army with too many people and not enough soldiers?' : Russia's military manpower system in flux

In the past week I read ”The Order of Time” and ”White Holes” by Carlo Rovelli, and I feel like these adventures in theoretical physics have twisted my brain into a knot. 😅

UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine: ”With at least 1,575 civilian casualties (232 killed; 1,343 injured), June 2025 has been the month with the highest number of civilian casualties in three years.”

Here we go.

I have set up a new Substack. There are some things I want to write about over the summer, so you can follow along here: vpkivimaki.substack.com

Agree with @davidpriess.bsky.social 100%: investments in intelligence should not be bypassed while Europe makes historic raises in defense spending. Good observations on making intelligence relevant for the policymaker in his recent article. icds.ee/en/seizing-t...

In light of CNN’s recent reporting that the administration has cut back access to the President’s Daily Brief, I trace here the evolution of a dozen presidents’ choices about the PDB’s dissemination—a 60 year “who’s who” of intelligence-policy relations: engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-u...

Have to say I'm somewhat blown away by what ChatGPT Deep Research can do. I pointed it at archive material I know quite well, gave few narrowing criteria, and the specifics it could draw from online archive material matched very well with what I know about the source material. Impressive progress.

NATO is concerned that Russia is seeking to deploy nuclear weapons in space, a development that could threaten the thousands of satellites orbiting the Earth that are crucial to defense as well as people's daily lives, the alliance's chief said.

TL;DR: The new U.S. tariff rate against our two largest trading partners is either 10%, 25% or 35%, and so far no one I've reached out to at the White House is able to tell me which.

Treasury bonds are traditionally seen as a safe haven in times of economic turmoil, because they offer investors a guaranteed payment backed by the U.S. government. Instead, investors are selling the assets. Here's what to know.

Open-source researchers: whether you’re actively searching for evidence re: conflict-related sexual violence or not, you may find it. We've just launched the pilot Open-Source Practitioner’s Guide to the Murad Code w/ IICI to help www.muradcode.com/open-source-... @berkeleylaw.bsky.social

If Trump views Europe as an economic competitor, recent actions seem to only help close ranks in Europe.

⚡️UPDATED: 16 killed, including 6 children, over 50 injured in Russian strike on Kryvyi Rih. Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on April 4, hitting a residential neighborhood, setting buildings on fire and causing severe damage.

Major security related decisions by the Finnish government today: 🔘 Defense spending will be increased to 3% of GDP by 2029 🔘 Finland will start preparations for withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans anti-personnel mines

Deterring China in the Arctic is tied to also dealing with the Russians, as Russia has become a route for China to access the Arctic. We explored the Russia/China Arctic relationship in our annual report. katsaus.supo.fi/en/china-in-...

A few thoughts: — DPRK baseline ability to sustain conventional warfare is low (US IC estimate of 10-14 days of intense war) — nuclear use is an offset to having to fight an intense conventional war against a conventionally superior, nuclear-backed alliance 1/2

Russia and China present the most significant cyber threats against Finnish national security. Russia has created a permissive environment for cyber criminals, which makes it possible also to mount deniable cyber operations. More about cyber threats to national security in this interview in Finnish.

In Moscow, officials believe that Washington — which doesn’t view the exact dividing lines as a major priority — will pressure Kyiv to concede even more territory than Russia has been able to seize by force. www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/23/p...

Veli-Pekka Kivimäki oli mukana, kun kansalaisaktivistit selvittivät, miksi malesialainen lentokone putosi Itä-Ukrainaan – nyt hän työskentelee suojelupoliisissa

Oleg Gordievsky has died www.bbc.com/news/article...

I’m old enough to remember that the US used to be more than just one global partner among others. From the EU white paper on defence: www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/docume...

US arms-makers are being frozen out of the EU’s massive new defense spending plan, which aims to splash the cash for EU and allied countries.

⚡️ Zelensky arrives in Finland to discuss security and strengthen ties. "Europe should be at the table, and everything that concerns Europe's security should be decided together with Europe," President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Telegram, announcing his arrival in Finland.

Carney says Canada might cut rather than cancel F-35 order. Guess this would imply buying two types of jets. “Ottawa wants to determine whether by buying European and British military goods it can procure more industrial benefits for Canada.” www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/art...

Germany's lower house of parliament is set to vote on a massive surge in borrowing that could boost Europe's largest economy and stimulate growth across the region, even as it faces trade tensions with top partner the United States reut.rs/4hliBRP

I cannot emphasize enough what a crucial role Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has played in the post-Soviet space, often acting as the only serious alternative to state propaganda & self-censoring media. Their journalists broadcast in local languages, covering the most pressing issues in the region

“US officials watched multiple Russian satellites work together to surround and isolate another satellite that was positioned in low-Earth orbit, demonstrating how they could potentially target enemy spacecraft in a future conflict, the official added.” www.cnn.com/2025/03/16/p...

Reply with your favourite Starter Packs for people fleeing X here. Here's Bellingcat's: go.bsky.app/HZSzS41

President of Finland Alexander Stubb: "I don't think Putin wants a ceasefire. Putin doesn't want peace. His original aim was...basically to have #Ukraine ceasing to exist. He hasn't changed his aim. And this is what all of us around the table have to understand."1/2⤵️

Finland similarly increased production, first by ordering more (in spring 2022) —> industry hired more people for more shifts… then putting tens of millions into expanding facilities = lots of artillery and munitions. PS🇫🇮 also did a test run of “wartime production” process, at lower volume.

🇫🇷 armament offensive incoming. “Those who buy Patriot should be offered the new-generation Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Those who buy the F-35, should be offered the Rafale,” French president Macron says. www.politico.eu/article/macr...

I was profiled by Finnish weekly Suomen Kuvalehti. We discussed similarities between my early work with Bellingcat, and work in intelligence today. Intelligence professionals should understand what today’s open source landscape looks like, and how it helps address key national security questions.

Lots of new followers. 👀 Hello! My feed is likely a mix of intel/security, military, Finnish neighborhood, Russia, Ukraine, OSINT’y stuff, and a sprinkling of tech nerdy things.

New statement by RFE/RL President: “The cancellation of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s grant agreement would be a massive gift to America’s enemies. The Iranian Ayatollahs, Chinese communist leaders, and autocrats in Moscow and Minsk would celebrate the demise of RFE/RL after 75 years

🚨 BREAKING: The European Parliament today banned Huawei lobbyists from entering its premises, following allegations of bribery linked to the Chinese technology giant's lobbying activities in Brussels. Full story: www.politico.eu/article/huaw...

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te says tougher measures are needed to counter stepped-up Chinese infiltration, spying and other efforts to weaken its defenses and speed Beijing's goal of taking control of the self-governing island republic, a close U.S. partner.

In Russia and China, national cybersecurity resources contribute to intelligence and influencing operations that serve the interests of the state. Finnish Security and Intelligence Service’s annual report describes these cyber ecosystems.

A new graft scandal rocked the European Parliament after police carried out raids Thursday in Belgium and Portugal, detaining multiple suspects in a probe into suspicions of corruption under the guise of lobbying, for the benefit of Chinese tech giant Huawei. u.afp.com/SU84

One of those weeks. 😅 I've been talking in public about Sino-Russian relations and the Arctic, Chinese collection of biodata, and Russian & Chinese cyber. Intelligence services often don't have too many public facing figures, so you need to be on top of different subject matters.

Quick take on 👇🏼 news re possible ceasefire in Ukraine and Russia: 1) Good news if U.S. arms & intel will again flow. 2) We don’t know what US has promised Russia (in possible future peace agreement) to encourage it to consider accepting this. 1/y www.bbc.com/news/live/c5...

The NASA office of technology, policy and strategy as well as the office of the chief scientist are both being shut down, and its overall science budget may be slashed by as much as 50%.

The Bundestag’s top intelligence experts are calling for a European spy network, warning that Europe can’t rely on intelligence from the United States amid growing uncertainty.

The strategic dissonance in US messaging is that Europe should spend more on defense, probably preferrably on US weapons, while Ukraine which is using US weapons is being deprived of the ability to operate them effectively when they need them most.

Head of Germany's BND intelligence service says Europe must assume Russia may want to test the reliability of NATO's Article 5. www.yahoo.com/news/german-...