👋That's a wrap from me for the year: Signing off today for maternity leave feeling very grateful to be able to dedicate the next few months to figuring out how to raise a baby. It'll be a very different type of craziness for me for the next little bit. See you in 2026!

Some new(ish) art on display in the West Wing of the White House

🚨A big tariff update this afternoon, with the Supreme Court agreeing to hear Trump's appeal in the case over the legality of his tariffs, *and* has agreed to a motion to expedite. That means the case is set for the Court to hear oral arguments in the first week of November.

New reporting from the White House regarding the Israeli attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar: A White House official tells me the U.S. was notified of the attack just before it happened. No further details for now, but expect we could hear more from details from the White House later today.

With his IEEPA tariff powers in jeopardy, President Trump is now threatening to use a different trade tool, known as Section 301, to push back on the EU over its fines on Google and other U.S. tech companies. Would require an investigation, but could lead to steep new tariffs on the EU.

Strong reporting here from ProPublica, which found that three Trump Cabinet members -- at Labor, Transportation and EPA -- call multiple homes their primary residence on mortgages. That's the same move that led Trump to fire Lisa Cook from her job at the Fed. bit.ly/466yMyI

Interesting color in the administration's motion to SCOTUS to expedite the tariffs case from Treasury Sec. Bessent, who says the appeals court ruling on Friday against Trump's tariffs is already impacting trade talks: "World leaders are ... walking away from or delaying negotiations," he says.

The Supreme Court has now officially docketed the case challenging Trump's IEEPA tariffs: bit.ly/46132uU In its motion to expedite, the Trump administration asked the Court to decide whether to take the case by Sept. 10, laying out a timeline that could lead to oral arguments by early November.

Fed's Beige Book: "Nearly all Districts noted tariff-related price increases, with contacts from many Districts reporting that tariffs were especially impactful on the prices of inputs." bit.ly/45MUb11

Sen. Thom Tillis, a Senate Banking Republican, says he will not consider a replacement for Lisa Cook's seat on the Fed board unless/until a court rules her firing was legal. Suggests Pres. Trump will NOT be able to fill her seat unless that happens. From Politico: www.politico.com/live-updates...

The President says his administration will be appealing the IEEPA tariffs case to the Supreme Court as soon as tomorrow, and will be asking for an expedited ruling in the case. Reminder the stay that allows the tariffs to remain in place for now is due to expire Oct. 14.

It’s striking to me just how severe the White House says the consequences of losing the tariffs appeal would be. Trump says the U.S. would be a “Third World Nation.” Navarro called it “the end of the United States.” One court loss and they’re warning the entire economic agenda falls apart.

Bessent tells Fox Biz he needs "months, if not quarters, if not a year of progress" on fentanyl before he can imagine the 20% fentanyl tariffs being removed on Chinese imports. That suggests the China tariffs, currently 30% this term, are unlikely to fall below 20% anytime soon.

Pres. Trump this morning says “trillions” of dollars are being collected in tariff revenue. The Peterson Institute’s latest estimates show just $93.9 billion has been collected through the first six months of this year.

Just over 12 hours before the U.S.-China temporary tariff truce is set to expire, Pres. Trump says "we'll see what happens" when asked whether he plans to extend the deadline.

A parade of CEOs at the White House today: Besides Apple’s Tim Cook, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser and BofA’s Brian Moynihan have all been here as well. Fraser and Moynihan held meetings with the President about the privatization of Fannie/Freddie, I’m told.

A White House official tells me Tim Cook will be at the White House today when he and President Trump announce that Apple will be upping its investment commitments in the U.S. by another $100 billion, as it works to bring more manufacturing and more of its supply chain to the US.

Just spoke with an administration official about the President’s decision to fire the BLS commissioner. Some takeaways: 1. The firing was due to what the White House sees as a “pattern of incompetence.” The possibility of firing her had been on the President’s radar for months.

A White House official confirms to me this means all aspects of the status quo with Mexico hold, including exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods.

While we await EOs, a reminder of what tariffs are expected to take effect at midnight, as of now: —10-20% tariffs on 7 countries with framework deals —11-50% “reciprocal” tariffs against 50+ other countries —15-20% global “baseline” tariff (for everyone else) —50% copper tariff

We’re 16 hours now from the President’s midnight trade deadline, at which point sweeping tariffs of 11-50% are set to take effect against 50+ countries. These were announced April 2, delayed to July 9 and then Aug. 1. As currently written via EO, all take effect at 12:01am.

The White House dropped a flood of trade news via exec order this afternoon. In three parts: —Trump revoked the "de minimis" trade loophole, which allows small packages to come in duty-free —He formalized his 50% tariffs on copper —and put 50% tariffs on Brazil Let's break it down👇

Two weeks later, this remains true -- not only for the framework deals with Indonesia and Vietnam, but also for those with the EU, Japan and the Philippines. Also still to be finalized: All 25 or so of the new tariff rates laid out in the letters the President sent over the past month.

Pres. Trump says today he's moving his deadline for 100% secondary tariffs targeting Russia to 10-12 days from now (up from Sept. 1). These would primarily impact China and Iran, the major buyers of Russian oil -- interesting timing to level this threat as the Stockholm talks get underway.

Pres. Trump was asked tonight whether he ever planned to release details of the Vietnam trade framework. “I don't think it matters how much I release of the deal,” he said. “We may open it. I mean I don't know, I can't tell you, I mean is it necessary? I don't think so.”

I'm a broken record on this, but formal paperwork is always key before tariff changes are finalized. And we are still waiting on further paperwork/confirmation for: —The framework deals with Indonesia & Vietnam —The 50% copper tariffs —The 100% secondary tariffs targeting Russia

More Indonesia trade framework details: —0% tariffs on US exports; 19% tariffs on imports from Indonesia, per Trump (down from 32% threatened last week) —Top imports that could see impact: palm oil, electronics, footwear, tires —Awaiting formal paperwork and confirmation from Indonesia

A week after announcing 50% tariffs on all imported copper, saying it poses a national security threat, the President today says that as part of the trade framework with Indonesia, the U.S. will be buying more of Indonesia's "very high quality copper."

~60% of everything the U.S. buys from abroad comes from four trading partners: the EU, Mexico, Canada & China. New tariff rates on imports from those four partners, starting Aug. 1: — EU: 30% — Mexico: 30%* — Canada: 35%* — China: 30% *USMCA goods may be exempt, but the decision is not final

In new letters, President Trump today says all imports from Mexico and the EU will face 30% tariffs beginning Aug. 1.

Trump's message for countries ahead of the Aug 1 tariff deadline: "Keep working hard. We've been taken advantage of for many years by countries, both friends and foe. Frankly, the friends have been worse than the foes.. So I'd say, just keep working. It's all going to work out."

Pres. Trump was asked twice this morning if he'll fire Fed Chair Powell. "No," he replied both times. "I think he's doing a terrible job," he added. "I think we should be three points lower."

Escalations in Trump's trade war just this week: — Steep new tariffs on Canada (largest buyer of US goods) & Brazil (which runs trade surplus with US) —50% copper tariff —Possible 200% pharmaceutical tariff —Possible doubling of the baseline tariff on *everything,* up to 20%

An administration official tells me this threat likely means only the 25% tariff on non-USMCA compliant trade gets hiked to 35%, and the exemptions and lower energy tariffs remain as they are. BUT, the official cautions, no final decisions on that yet from the President.

More trade news tonight: Trump says he’ll raise tariffs on Canadian imports to 35%, effective Aug. 1. Tariffs on Canada are currently set at 25% (over fentanyl), with exemptions for USMCA-compliant trade, and 10% (for energy). The letter suggests the 35% rate would supersede all of that.

News here: Trump says he’s considering raising the blanket tariff on nearly all imports, currently set at 10%, another 5 or 10 percentage points, @NBCNews reports.

We are in new territory with Trump’s latest trade letter, threatening a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil starting Aug. 1 —The US runs a rare trade surplus with Brazil, so there’s no deficit to fix —Trump says these duties are explicitly over political concerns, not economic ones

Asked how he came up with his new country-specific tariff rates, President Trump tells reporters it's a formula based on common sense, deficits, how we've been treated over the years, raw numbers, "very, very substantial facts, and also past history."

Trump yesterday on if his Aug. 1 tariff deadline was firm: "No, I would say firm, but not 100% firm. If they call up and they say, we’d like to do something a different way, we're going to be open to that. But essentially, that's the way it is right now." Trump today:

Good question. All of the higher country-specific tariff rates are instead of the baseline 10% tariff. That’s in place for anyone who didn’t get a higher “reciprocal” rate.

So far, the tariff rates the President is sending to countries today either closely match or are slightly lower than what he threatened on April 2. So both in terms of tariff rates and deadlines, this is a slightly softer stance overall. Nothing takes effect until Aug. 1.

The trade letters, while new and blustery, essentially say Japan and Korea’s “reciprocal rates” from April 2 will kick back in unless they reach a deal. And the White House has been threatening that for weeks. The only real difference that I see is the kick-in date is now Aug. 1, instead of July 9.

Key line in the letters the President has just sent to the leaders of Japan and South Korea, informing them their exports to the U.S. will face a 25% tariff beginning Aug. 1: “These Tariffs may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your Country.”

Pres. Trump says he's reached a new trade framework with Vietnam, one that would lead to a 20% tariff on all Vietnamese exports to the U.S. and a 0% tariff on all U.S. exports to Vietnam. Lots to unpack here! In the thread.

On tariffs, Trump says today he’ll be sending out a letter to countries “over the next week and a half or so, maybe before … to tell them what they have to pay to do business in the United States. And it’s going to go very quickly.” If that timeline sounds familiar..👇🏼

Karoline Leavitt says today the July 9 deadline for country-specific tariffs to kick in is "not critical"—the latest signal from the White House that the date for reciprocal tariffs could be squishy My note: Trump will have to sign a new EO for that to hold true. Watch for that in the next 2 weeks

VANCE: "Our view has been very clear that we don't want a regime change."   HEGSETH: "This mission was not and has not been about regime change."   RUBIO: Regime change is "certainly not the goal of what we're working on here."   TRUMP:

Pres. Trump just now, discussing his 25% tariff on imported cars, says he "might" raise that tariff higher "in the not too distant future." "The higher you go, the more likely it is to build a plant here," he says from the East Room.

It has been quite a day for trade news. To recap: 1. The US and China have a "framework" to get trade talks roughly back to where they were after Geneva. China will "immediately" start granting rare earths export licenses for U.S. companies, per Sec. Lutnick ...